2020 Senate Elections

[Horndog 2,293]

16 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

lmao they're scared shitless

I would prefer that some senior senators step aside.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

7 hours ago, Horndog said:

I would prefer that some senior senators step aside.

They hold on to their seats until death.

Dianne Feinstein is almost 87

Chuck grassley is 86

Jim Inhofe is running for a new term this year at 85.

 

makes me wonder how long we will be stuck with that turtle douchebag McConnell.

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[gmr548 16,681]

48 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

They hold on to their seats until death.

Dianne Feinstein is almost 87

Chuck grassley is 86

Jim Inhofe is running for a new term this year at 85.

 

makes me wonder how long we will be stuck with that turtle douchebag McConnell.

That's fucking ridiculous. I mean, I knew all those, but seeing it written out highlights the absurdity. Why would you even want to be a senator in your 80s?

[Voldemort86 2,259]

11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Given that the GOP Arizona senate primary isn't until August, I think there is a small to moderate chance that McSally drops out. If McConnell sees that McSally has a 0% chance of winning, why not gamble with another candidate. There is little to lose.

Is there a scenario where Kyl comes out of retirement again, run for 4-4-5 months and then retires immediately upon swearing in?  Or perhaps the governor, Ducey, could run without resigning as governor. 

I assume there is little chance Kelly loses against anyone now but the only logical choice is to go a different direction than mcsally.

This is crazy talk.

mcsally dropping out would send a message that the GOP is desperate.

mcsally has to go down with the ship because all the GOP has on their side in Arizona is history. Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996 because of the presence of a third party candidate, but a majority of Arizonans haven’t supported a democrat for president in forever. 
 

if the GOP drops mcsally, it would probably do them more harm then good.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That's fucking ridiculous. I mean, I knew all those, but seeing it written out highlights the absurdity. Why would you even want to be a senator in your 80s?

The senate has always be regarded as an old school, back slapping, tight knit, good ole boy legislative body. 
 

these people literally go to Washington for 40+ years and lose touch with the outside world.

depending on the leadership, the senate could either be in the present day or the 1950’s. Right now it’s in the 1950’s. 
 

 

[Ghost of LL 15,664]

48 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Yeah--I'm not buying that.

[gmr548 16,681]

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I'm not buying that.

Democratic internal, so grain, or even entire shaker of salt warranted.

[tx 3 putt 78,467]

72 should be the mandatory retirement age for govt service 

[tx 3 putt 78,467]

14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--I'm not buying that.

quick browse of the local paper - collins is down huge with female voters and also trailing with independents 

[gmr548 16,681]

deleted bc I am dumb

Edited May 29, 2020 by gmr548

[Texas73 422]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

deleted bc I am dumb

Finally agree with you.

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

So about Colorado...

It went from reliably red to deep blue and never going back due innlarge part, I get the sense, from Californians moving there (ditto Nevada). 

I don’t follow Gardner at all, but isn’t he pretty decent as a Senator?  I mean, ignore the politics but focus on no scandal, doesn’t seem like an idiot, didn’t win his seat because the other guy he ran against was a legitimate rape candidate or a witch or anything like that. Just boring honkie from central casting, right?

if so that makes the 20 point deficit unbelievable. I know hickenlooper is fairly popular, but damn, that’s California/Massachusetts territory. Amazing that it’s that blue. 

This election is going to be even more of a buttfucking than I thought, and I was expecting a massive buttfucking. 

 

Eta- when I say unbelievable I don’t mean that I think the poll is incorrect- I mean- wow that’s amazingly bad. That’s some major creep inland from the coasts.

also- if he’s in some way odious let me know- as I said it’s not like I’m following him, that’s my sense but if he had some scandal or gaffe I’m not hand waving it I’m merely unaware of it. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[tx 3 putt 78,467]

21 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t follow Gardner at all, but isn’t he pretty decent as a Senator?  

Quote

Gardner is a supporter of President Donald Trump and endorsed him in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.^[26][27] Since Trump took office, Gardner has voted with Trump about 90% of the time and campaigned with him in the 2020 Senate race.^[28] [24] The American Conservative Union gave Gardner an 81% lifetime score in 2018, indicating a largely conservative voting record.^[29]

 

90%, he's in bed with the orange cheeto and will have to pay for that 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

46 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So about Colorado...

It went from reliably red to deep blue and never going back due innlarge part, I get the sense, from Californians moving there (ditto Nevada). 

I don’t follow Gardner at all, but isn’t he pretty decent as a Senator?  I mean, ignore the politics but focus on no scandal, doesn’t seem like an idiot, didn’t win his seat because the other guy he ran against was a legitimate rape candidate or a witch or anything like that. Just boring honkie from central casting, right?

if so that makes the 20 point deficit unbelievable. I know hickenlooper is fairly popular, but damn, that’s California/Massachusetts territory. Amazing that it’s that blue. 

This election is going to be even more of a buttfucking than I thought, and I was expecting a massive buttfucking. 

 

Eta- when I say unbelievable I don’t mean that I think the poll is incorrect- I mean- wow that’s amazingly bad. That’s some major creep inland from the coasts.

also- if he’s in some way odious let me know- as I said it’s not like I’m following him, that’s my sense but if he had some scandal or gaffe I’m not hand waving it I’m merely unaware of it. 

He barely won his first term in 2014 unseating democrat mark udall by about 40,000 votes.

the 2014 and 2010 midterms were the lowest democratic enthusiasm elections I’ve ever seen and hopefully will ever see in my lifetime.

colorado is much more blue in 2020 than it was in 2014.

the fake nice guy wannabe tough guy George W bush was the last republican to win colorado in 2004. We know trump doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning in Colorado.

gardner really should be toast....... just like unfortunately Doug Jones in Alabama.

[berlinerbaer 692]

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So about Colorado...

It went from reliably red to deep blue and never going back due innlarge part, I get the sense, from Californians moving there (ditto Nevada). 

I don’t follow Gardner at all, but isn’t he pretty decent as a Senator?  I mean, ignore the politics but focus on no scandal, doesn’t seem like an idiot, didn’t win his seat because the other guy he ran against was a legitimate rape candidate or a witch or anything like that. Just boring honkie from central casting, right?

if so that makes the 20 point deficit unbelievable. I know hickenlooper is fairly popular, but damn, that’s California/Massachusetts territory. Amazing that it’s that blue. 

This election is going to be even more of a buttfucking than I thought, and I was expecting a massive buttfucking. 

 

Eta- when I say unbelievable I don’t mean that I think the poll is incorrect- I mean- wow that’s amazingly bad. That’s some major creep inland from the coasts.

also- if he’s in some way odious let me know- as I said it’s not like I’m following him, that’s my sense but if he had some scandal or gaffe I’m not hand waving it I’m merely unaware of it. 

His problem is that he is a Republican senator in, as you say, a BLUE state. His most important bills would likely get support from most Democrats, meaning they are non-starters for Republican senate leadership. He has tried to shift left on some issues but has little chance to influence the GOP agenda, and GOP leadership has hung him out to dry in the center.

The fact that voting Gardner out is pretty much a prerequisite for a change in control of the chamber is not lost on Colorado voters. As the most vulnerable Republican senator, I'd expect the people to know that if he wins, the Senate stays in Republican hands and all he ends up being is a rubber stamp for Trump and McConnell's agenda, no matter how well-meaning he may be. 

Basically, I agree with you that this is a referendum on Trump and the GOP more so than on any sitting senator.

Here's a good article on his marijuana legislation that McConnel probably lost somewhere underneath the pile of passed House bills he's refusing to take up and how it adversely affects his potential support from the pot industry.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/23/cory-gardners-marijuana-problem-275029

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

His problem is that he is a Republican senator in, as you say, a BLUE state. His most important bills would likely get support from most Democrats, meaning they are non-starters for Republican senate leadership. He has tried to shift left on some issues but has little chance to influence the GOP agenda, and GOP leadership has hung him out to dry in the center.

The fact that voting Gardner out is pretty much a prerequisite for a change in control of the chamber is not lost on Colorado voters. As the most vulnerable Republican senator, I'd expect the people to know that if he wins, the Senate stays in Republican hands and all he ends up being is a rubber stamp for Trump and McConnell's agenda, no matter how well-meaning he may be. 

Basically, I agree with you that this is a referendum on Trump and the GOP more so than on any sitting senator.

Here's a good article on his marijuana legislation that McConnel probably lost somewhere underneath the pile of passed House bills he's refusing to take up and how it adversely affects his potential support from the pot industry.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/23/cory-gardners-marijuana-problem-275029

The pot industry has no reason to support Gardner.

what big wins has he delivered for the state of Colorado and for the pot industry?  The guy was supposed to use his republican connections to help legalize marijuana.

its all ended up being a big nothing burger. Nothing is going to change on that front until we maintain control of the house, take leadership away from McConnell in the senate, and probably need the White House too.

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

90%, he's in bed with the orange cheeto and will have to pay for that 

Yeah but 90% isn’t even a lot for a senator in the same party, and even Dems probably “vote with trump” fairly often as not everything that comes out of congress is contentious. 

Also, you are inadvertently making my point. He’s in trouble not because he’s bad at his job but because he’s a republican in Colorado, apparently now that means death. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,706]

With other Presidents, Gardner could be publicly more forceful against Trump and laws/policies that are important for Coloradans.  In that scenario, the President understands that it's a political necessity that someone from his own party will have to disagree with him publicly for the greater good of the party.  Trump wouldn't allow that.

Instead Republicans that need to distance themselves from Trump are silent. One problem that brings up is that some of their normal voters have been replaced by MAGA so they also need some vocal support from trump.

[kevwun 16,269]

If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.  The country is suffering through a pandemic and now race riots because of Trump and Republican leadership.  No shit people have had enough of Republicans.

Edited May 29, 2020 by kevwun

[Aqua Buddha 14,782]

11 hours ago, gmr548 said:

That's fucking ridiculous. I mean, I knew all those, but seeing it written out highlights the absurdity. Why would you even want to be a senator in your 80s?

Paid staff to wheel you around.

[Ghost of LL 15,664]

10 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So about Colorado...

It went from reliably red to deep blue and never going back due innlarge part, I get the sense, from Californians moving there (ditto Nevada). 

I don’t follow Gardner at all, but isn’t he pretty decent as a Senator?  I mean, ignore the politics but focus on no scandal, doesn’t seem like an idiot, didn’t win his seat because the other guy he ran against was a legitimate rape candidate or a witch or anything like that. Just boring honkie from central casting, right?

if so that makes the 20 point deficit unbelievable. I know hickenlooper is fairly popular, but damn, that’s California/Massachusetts territory. Amazing that it’s that blue. 

This election is going to be even more of a buttfucking than I thought, and I was expecting a massive buttfucking. 

 

Eta- when I say unbelievable I don’t mean that I think the poll is incorrect- I mean- wow that’s amazingly bad. That’s some major creep inland from the coasts.

also- if he’s in some way odious let me know- as I said it’s not like I’m following him, that’s my sense but if he had some scandal or gaffe I’m not hand waving it I’m merely unaware of it. 

People like to blame the physical migration of Californians, but it's waaaaay more than that.  There just haven't been that many Californians moving to Colorado to account for the enormous swing in Colorado politics that we've seen over the past 20 years.

It's not the migration of people from California; it's the migration of ideas from California.  The fact is that California-style social liberalism has won the battle of ideas over Arizona-style individualistic conservatism.  It won out to the degree that Republicans now eschew the individualistic conservatism of Goldwater--you have a Republican governor declaring that the government should be able to dictate what social-media companies post less than a decade after Citizens United.  

As with all ideas, it's helpful to have missionaries to go out into the pagan lands.  And so from that standpoint, the migration of Californians has been important to the spreading of ideas far beyond their actual numbers.  But I think It's important to observe that the vast majority of Colorado's switch has come from natives changing their ideological bent (and broad generational/demographic change).

11 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

quick browse of the local paper - collins is down huge with female voters and also trailing with independents 

I don't think Collins is going to win.  I think she's going to lose by 3 or 4 points.  People are tired of her and see through her schtick.  Nobody is believing the whole "I'm my own woman and not just a rubber stamp for Mitch McConnell" bit anymore.  It looks not just false, but fraudulent.

That being said, she's not losing by 10.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,706]

15 minutes ago, kevwun said:

If you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.  The country is suffering through a pandemic and now race riots because of Trump and Republican leadership.  No shit people have had enough of Republicans.

My aunt is in her 70s, lives in a small Texas town,  and probably hasn't voted for national Democrat since the 70s and a statewide Democrats since the 80s. Since then, it's straight GOP ticket vote.  

She's voting all Democrat in November. She's mad at Abbott, Patrick, Paxton and especially Trump.

[tx 3 putt 78,467]

pics of this aunt ?

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

With other Presidents, Gardner could be publicly more forceful against Trump and laws/policies that are important for Coloradans.  In that scenario, the President understands that it's a political necessity that someone from his own party will have to disagree with him publicly for the greater good of the party.  Trump wouldn't allow that.

Instead Republicans that need to distance themselves from Trump are silent. One problem that brings up is that some of their normal voters have been replaced by MAGA so they also need some vocal support from trump.

I think this is a really smart point. As a conservative there are some policy things and regulatory things I agree a lot with Trump on (please don’t argue what that is here anyone else, it’s not germane to this point at all and it’s a tangent that doesn’t need to be explored to sidetrack the thread), but I find him so personally loathsome that I’m not interested in carrying water for him, and his cult of personality and unwashed masses that he’s brought into the party means everything needs to be a litmus text for his ideas that you must support at any time and all cost mean that there’s no guiding principles to adhere to as a party or coalition anymore. 

Couple that with his influence now being so loud that 30+ (at least) percent of the party is in lockstep with him and you literally have no chance of winning a primary anywhere that you’d have a chance to win a general in without his approval. 

It’s going to be really really really tough for the GOP to ever get any traction and win any election on a national level, or anywhere that’s not deeply red going forward. 

I don’t know how long that stench lasts but I’m not honestly sure that the GOP can overcome it with their own doing, and will be relegated to winning only if/when the democrats massively shit the bed. Which isn’t good for America because it means elections become up/down referendums that can only be won if the prevailing party in power becomes completely and totally inept, as opposed to just not optimal. 

It’s a conundrum any time majority party in a republic controls everything anywhere in said republic, that I think our founding fathers brilliantly solved through federalism, but that seems to be on the wane and I don’t think that genie is ever coming back out of the bottle again. 

I’m not crying any tears for Gardner here, but it’s pretty amazing he can be down 20. It might just be a perfect storm of his state becoming blue, a really popular governor running against him, and his party at the national level being run by an idiot during a time of pandemic and possible Great Depression. Maybe Colorado is only an 8 point state (or 6 or 4) in normal times and those other factors are creating this kind margin and it’s a one off type thing. 

But yeah, anyone that can’t see CO, NV and probably AZ are now part of the “west

coast” politically is crazy. I don’t think, in 24, AZ even comes up as a battleground state. 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

13 hours ago, gmr548 said:

That's fucking ridiculous. I mean, I knew all those, but seeing it written out highlights the absurdity. Why would you even want to be a senator in your 80s?

They don't know how to be anything else at this point.  They are probably the type that will be dead a week after they retire whether they retired 10 years ago, now, or 10 years from now.  Reminds me of many emeritus partners at law firms.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,706]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think this is a really smart point. As a conservative there are some policy things and regulatory things I agree a lot with Trump on (please don’t argue what that is here anyone else, it’s not germane to this point at all and it’s a tangent that doesn’t need to be explored to sidetrack the thread), but I find him so personally loathsome that I’m not interested in carrying water for him, and his cult of personality and unwashed masses that he’s brought into the party means everything needs to be a litmus text for his ideas that you must support at any time and all cost mean that there’s no guiding principles to adhere to as a party or coalition anymore. 

Couple that with his influence now being so loud that 30+ (at least) percent of the party is in lockstep with him and you literally have no chance of winning a primary anywhere that you’d have a chance to win a general in without his approval. 

It’s going to be really really really tough for the GOP to ever get any traction and win any election on a national level, or anywhere that’s not deeply red going forward. 

I don’t know how long that stench lasts but I’m not honestly sure that the GOP can overcome it with their own doing, and will be relegated to winning only if/when the democrats massively shit the bed. Which isn’t good for America because it means elections become up/down referendums that can only be won if the prevailing party in power becomes completely and totally inept, as opposed to just not optimal. 

It’s a conundrum any time majority party in a republic controls everything anywhere in said republic, that I think our founding fathers brilliantly solved through federalism, but that seems to be on the wane and I don’t think that genie is ever coming back out of the bottle again. 

I’m not crying any tears for Gardner here, but it’s pretty amazing he can be down 20. It might just be a perfect storm of his state becoming blue, a really popular governor running against him, and his party at the national level being run by an idiot during a time of pandemic and possible Great Depression. Maybe Colorado is only an 8 point state (or 6 or 4) in normal times and those other factors are creating this kind margin and it’s a one off type thing. 

But yeah, anyone that can’t see CO, NV and probably AZ are now part of the “west

coast” politically is crazy. I don’t think, in 24, AZ even comes up as a battleground state. 

A GOP recovery in the upcoming years is based on who becomes the next vocal leaders of the party. Someone will definitely try to be the next Trump. The playbook is right there for them. 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

A GOP recovery in the upcoming years is based on who becomes the next vocal leaders of the party. Someone will definitely try to be the next Trump. The playbook is right there for them. 

Not sure anyone has the ability to pull it off.  There are plenty of true believers, but they come across as complete assholes that are unliked by even other true believers.  There are plenty of incompetent people out there too, but they aren't capable of picking up the "Trump" message.  Trump is a perfect storm.  Nobody else can go up on stage, bumble through the delivery of a white nationalist message while glorifying himself in every sentence and still get applauded.

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

They don't know how to be anything else at this point.  They are probably the type that will be dead a week after they retire whether they retired 10 years ago, now, or 10 years from now.  Reminds me of many emeritus partners at law firms.

I think this is very true.  Good work if you can get it. 

[Foosters 18,223]

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think this is a really smart point. As a conservative there are some policy things and regulatory things I agree a lot with Trump on (please don’t argue what that is here anyone else, it’s not germane to this point at all and it’s a tangent that doesn’t need to be explored to sidetrack the thread), but I find him so personally loathsome that I’m not interested in carrying water for him, and his cult of personality and unwashed masses that he’s brought into the party means everything needs to be a litmus text for his ideas that you must support at any time and all cost mean that there’s no guiding principles to adhere to as a party or coalition anymore. 

Couple that with his influence now being so loud that 30+ (at least) percent of the party is in lockstep with him and you literally have no chance of winning a primary anywhere that you’d have a chance to win a general in without his approval. 

It’s going to be really really really tough for the GOP to ever get any traction and win any election on a national level, or anywhere that’s not deeply red going forward. 

I don’t know how long that stench lasts but I’m not honestly sure that the GOP can overcome it with their own doing, and will be relegated to winning only if/when the democrats massively shit the bed. Which isn’t good for America because it means elections become up/down referendums that can only be won if the prevailing party in power becomes completely and totally inept, as opposed to just not optimal. 

It’s a conundrum any time majority party in a republic controls everything anywhere in said republic, that I think our founding fathers brilliantly solved through federalism, but that seems to be on the wane and I don’t think that genie is ever coming back out of the bottle again. 

I’m not crying any tears for Gardner here, but it’s pretty amazing he can be down 20. It might just be a perfect storm of his state becoming blue, a really popular governor running against him, and his party at the national level being run by an idiot during a time of pandemic and possible Great Depression. Maybe Colorado is only an 8 point state (or 6 or 4) in normal times and those other factors are creating this kind margin and it’s a one off type thing. 

But yeah, anyone that can’t see CO, NV and probably AZ are now part of the “west

coast” politically is crazy. I don’t think, in 24, AZ even comes up as a battleground state. 

Dems are also ideologically fractured - arguably with sides as entrenched as the GOP. Difference now being they have a common enemy to unite against.

The main difference of course is the Dem base is growing while GOP is shrinking.

Ideologically, there should be at least 4 parties. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,706]

1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

Not sure anyone has the ability to pull it off.  There are plenty of true believers, but they come across as complete assholes that are unliked by even other true believers.  There are plenty of incompetent people out there too, but they aren't capable of picking up the "Trump" message.  Trump is a perfect storm.  Nobody else can go up on stage, bumble through the delivery of a white nationalist message while glorifying himself in every sentence and still get applauded.

Trump has the unique combination of zero shame plus impressive communication skills even if they're at a 3rd grade level.

[gmr548 16,681]

Couple that with his influence now being so loud that 30+ (at least) percent of the party is in lockstep with him and you literally have no chance of winning a primary anywhere that you’d have a chance to win a general in without his approval. 

It's way more than 30 percent. His approval among Republicans has never dipped below 80 percent. Those with strong objections have already left the party. It is the party of Trump at this point. That's been proven.

Gardner is fucked in CO because he's Trumpy in a very well educated state. Thay alone would do it, but Democrats are running a popular two term governor that's pretty moderate.

The influx of young people made CO competitive in the late 00s abd early 10s. The GOP going full white nationalist and anti education/science, which really alienates an electorate with: 1.) A significant Latino population and 2.) High educational attainment, put it out of reach.

CO didn't move away from the GOP. Republicans made the decision to go all in on Trumpism, which is essentially abandoning a place like CO.

Also, for what it's worth, I have not seen data for Colorado, but Californians make up an almost perfectly proportional percentage of people moving to Austin relative to the national population. The majority come from inside Texas, but even removing that, there's not some swarm of them moving here relative to other places. The "OmG cAlIfOrNiAnS" thing is a myth for people that like to whine.

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

5 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Dems are also ideologically fractured - arguably with sides as entrenched as the GOP. Difference now being they have a common enemy to unite against.

The main difference of course is the Dem base is growing while GOP is shrinking.

Ideologically, there should be at least 4 parties. 

Yeah but the thing the Dems have always had going for them is that they are a coalition party of disparate interests  and small minority coalitions that add up, if they all hang together, in a majority.  It's kind of weird, and kind of hard to pull off, but it's successful and becoming more so for them.

For example- a religious black nuclear family probably doesn't think even remotely similar to the same, policy wise, as a Acela corridor white single person.  Or a gay person. Or a Bernie bro. But, they are a minority, as is the gay person, as is the Bernie Bro (I think- but I'm not positive), totally and completely distrustful of (deservedly so) the GOP and what looks like the growing white plurality.  I get why they'd rather stand in the same tent with people they disagree with as opposed to don't trust (which is what I think you are saying here).  

The GOP would probably do best (going forward, nationally) to make a bid to turn the party over to socially conservative blacks and be done with it.  You can see this worked really well for them in places like South Carolina in the Senate, or Oklahoma a couple decades ago.  I don't know how they do that, but I think it the black person railed against "liberals" and "snowflakes" and "safe spaces" with a folksy down home heehaw message you could probably keep the sort of racists but not full on racists in the party and win.  

This looks to be the tact that they are taking in Michigan in the Senate race. I'm betting he runs ahead of Trump (he did much better than most of the GOP losers in 2018 in his first bid) and makes it sort of interesting in what will be a full on blood letting outside of the deep south and plains great plains states for the GOP in 2020.  If he could actually seal the deal with 20 or 30 percent of black voters that are probably more or less aligned with him but hate the GOP brand he'd probably win pretty easily, but I don't think they are ready to throw in, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket, and I can't blame them. 

I think this is more or less what you are saying.  

We will never have more than 2 parties due to the structure of how we run elections.  You can argue good, bad, or indifferent but it's just fact.  You have to take over the party and hijack it to your own making. To my great regret Trump was able to do that with the GOP in 2016 and it will basically end the party as we know it. I'd have sure preferred Bernie to have accomplished the feat with the Democratic party in 2016 instead of Trump with the GOP, but here you are.  It's going to ensure Democratic hegemony for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump has the unique combination of zero shame plus impressive communication skills even if they're at a 3rd grade level.

He's also got his finger all over the heartbeat of the American zeitgeist. Or at least a portion of it. In the same way Oprah does for a portion of it. He's an avatar for the brash, stupid, loudmouth, lowest common denominator. Those people aren't always wrong, but they are always embarrassing.  

[henrygandorf 29,218]

12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t follow Gardner at all, but isn’t he pretty decent as a Senator?

trump always talks about how great he is so i just assumed he was shitty. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

It's way more than 30 percent. His approval among Republicans has never dipped below 80 percent. Those with strong objections have already left the party. It is the party of Trump at this point. That's been proven.

Gardner is fucked in CO because he's Trumpy in a very well educated state. Thay alone would do it, but Democrats are running a popular two term governor that's pretty moderate.

The influx of young people made CO competitive in the late 00s abd early 10s. The GOP going full white nationalist and anti education/science, which really alienates an electorate with: 1.) A significant Latino population and 2.) High educational attainment, put it out of reach.

CO didn't move away from the GOP. Republicans made the decision to go all in on Trumpism, which is essentially abandoning a place like CO.

Also, for what it's worth, I have not seen data for Colorado, but Californians make up an almost perfectly proportional percentage of people moving to Austin relative to the national population. The majority come from inside Texas, but even removing that, there's not some swarm of them moving here relative to other places. The "OmG cAlIfOrNiAnS" thing is a myth for people that like to whine.

 

I said at least.

The 30% figure was actually me talking about what the party looked like in 2016 before he won and people left.  I got to that number because he kept getting 20-30% in the primaries before it became inevitable and the math went against him. I'm still not convinced more than that really actually liked him. After that the conscientious objectors fled and the rest of the people that weren't in favor of him jumped on his side because they sure are in favor of owning liberals (and opposed to them).  

It sucks man. I don't know how it could possibly get changed, but having Hillary v Trump and then Trump v Biden 2 elections back to back is a fucking beat down.  I'm not talking about policy, or partisanship, I'm talking about running 2 people that are pretty loathed, and then substituting in a clown show with diminishing capabilities the second time around, that nobody in the Democratic party even likes, is just a really odd way for us, collectively, to run a railroad.  

I'm not a Dem, obviously, but I talk to a lot IRL and have yet to see anyone excited to vote for him (and they all did vote for him!).  It's really odd. I don't think we can rethink it. I also don't think America is stupid so I think this has to be a structural fault in how things are set up, somehow.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

Just now, henrygandorf said:

trump always talks about how great he is so i just assumed he was shitty. 

A not unfair point.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Hillary was loathed.

Joe Biden is nowhere near being loathed - the fact that you state that as fact is proof you’re still gullible to Trumpy talking points.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861]

6 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Hillary was loathed.

Joe Biden is nowhere near being loathed - the fact that you state that as fact is proof you’re still gullible to Trumpy talking points.

he said he isn't loathed.

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

12 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Hillary was loathed.

Joe Biden is nowhere near being loathed - the fact that you state that as fact is proof you’re still gullible to Trumpy talking points.

You misunderstood me. I was saying Trump (loathed) v Hillary (loathed) and then substituting in Biden (clown show with diminishing capabilities) v Trump (loathed).

I know Biden isn't loathed. But nobody actually likes him in the positive sense of the matter. As in, you know what, I'm really glad we have Joe Biden running as the nominee for my party. I think he really represents me, what I believe and what I'm all about. And he's really got the capacity and mental acuity to be a great president. No- it's all- wow- we really dodged a bullet with Bernie and I think this amiable idiot is routine is going to win the election, but I sure do hope he has some competent handlers around him. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

8 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

he said he isn't loathed.

Thanks.  I was going to lecture her about rereading what I wrote but when I reread myself it wasn't abundantly clear that she was wrong.  I clarified to her what I meant, but thank you for saying that my initial post was comprehensible. 

[henrygandorf 29,218]

i think he’s generally likable and fairly uninspiring, but also non-controversial. kind of what we need right now to win.

thats why the attacks on him have been pretty lame and imo, ineffective. 

[BrickHorn 18,424]

34 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm not a Dem, obviously, but I talk to a lot IRL and have yet to see anyone excited to vote for him

I’m positively giddy to vote for Biden. Because he’s not Donald Trump and he’s a competent politician who will select a capable cabinet that will work to repair the damage Trump has done to our nation. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

I like Joe Biden.

He wasn’t my first choice, hell he wasn’t even my eighth choice. But I like him.

And the more Trumpkins and Bitter Bernie Bro’s lie about him and smear him, I like him even more.

Come November if everything keeps being horrible, I’ll probably be in love with him.

I will crawl through coronavirus covered shit and glass to cast my vote for him.

[USMCHorn 1,369]

Like I said in the past, Trump won't have the benefit of running against Hillary this election. As long as Biden has a pulse he’s getting my vote. 

[henrygandorf 29,218]

10 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I will crawl through coronavirus covered shit and glass to cast my vote for him.

the other day a buddy said something similar. i was like, shit, i’ll get coronavirus if it means trump is out. just mail the syringe to my house. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,706]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I know Biden isn't loathed. But nobody actually likes him in the positive sense of the matter. As in, you know what, I'm really glad we have Joe Biden running as the nominee for my party. I think he really represents me, what I believe and what I'm all about. And he's really got the capacity and mental acuity to be a great president. No- it's all- wow- we really dodged a bullet with Bernie and I think this amiable idiot is routine is going to win the election, but I sure do hope he has some competent handlers around him. 

I think many people like Biden and they're glad that he's the candidate. Yes, some Dems wanted Bernie but the reason Bernie isn't the candidate is that the majority of the party base didn't want Bernie, they wanted Biden. 

Personally I can't think of another eligible Democrat that I would rather vote for at the moment. As President I think he will preside over a relatively muted swing back to the Left. If Bernie, Pelosi and Schumer are given the keys without restraint, the resulting swing would be too much.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Most normal, sane, and rational people probably view Biden as a return to normalcy. Notice how trumpkins aren’t in that group.

Democrats prioritized choosing someone who could beat trump. I just don’t think Bernie would’ve done the job. The country isn’t ready for a raging socialist. Maybe 20 years, but not now.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34,079]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Most normal, sane, and rational people probably view Biden as a return to normalcy. Notice how trumpkins aren’t in that group.

Democrats prioritized choosing someone who could beat trump. I just don’t think Bernie would’ve done the job. The country isn’t ready for a raging socialist. Maybe 20 years, but not now.

I get so tired of this shit. I followed you right up to that 2nd to last sentence. I don't have the mental energy to go into why it is at best a disingenuous statement, but likely an outright perpetuated falsehood. Maybe someone else will do it for me.