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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

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6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

The GOP keeps trying to deny it, but I think Montana senate is really in play.

 

in 2016, trump and bullock were both on the ballot in Montana. Trump won Montana by 20+ and Bullock won the Montana governor race by 4 or 5 points. 
 

Lots of ticket splitting goes on in that state.

I don't only think it's in play, I think Bullock winning is likely.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29177

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36 minutes ago, Tuco said:

1. I think liberal economic policy has a better chance of doing well in KY than liberal social policies.  That's been Bernie's 50 state plan all along, and I think it has some merit. 

2. Endorsements are way more important for donations than they are for directly influencing voters.  When Bernie and AOC endorse a candidate, they tweet/post/email the endorsement to all of their supporters on their list.  Many of those supporters then follow the link, and contribute, some of them to the max amount.  The candidate then watches their fundraising autocruise for about a week, raising more than they could have from 100 hours of calling potential donors.  I used to think endorsements were no big deal; I was wrong. 

yep. i made a post about it a few months ago. i can find out who’s running against mcconnell, graham, whomever, and contribute to them in a few clicks. that was not really commonplace even 10 years ago. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted

Nebraska was never really in play, but jesus dude....

Quote

Nebraska Democratic Party officials have demanded that U.S. Senate candidate Chris Janicek withdraw from the senate race after reviewing sexually inappropriate comments he made about a staff member during a group text among the Janicek campaign.

In a meeting last Thursday, NDP Statewide Officers demanded that Janicek decline the Democratic Senate nomination. This would require a form to be filed by Janicek with the Nebraska Secretary of State in order for his name to be removed from the November ballot. The party has the ability to replace his name on the ballot for the November 3 election if he resigns and completes paperwork with the Secretary of State.

Janicek informed the NDP that he would not withdraw on Monday, the deadline that was agreed upon by party leaders and Janicek during the meeting last week.

5ee8efb17d6654088a0294eb?ops=max(1060,0)

5ee8efbb7d6654088a0294ee?ops=max(1060,0)

taking time off from his busy campaign schedule to entertain spending some campaign funds on getting that stick in the mud Allison airtight. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the fact that she was on the text chain is my favorite part. 

That, or the fact that  Siri bungles translating  "there were grammatical errors" (they were grandma Claire's),  yet sticks the landing on va-jay-jay. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted

 

10 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

he needs to step down 

He does.  

Fucking Chris.  I've known him socially for years and generally thought he was an ok guy.  But he was always kind of a loud mouth, the kind guy that just relishes saying shit to make people uncomfortable.  Tolerable as an acquaintance, but that always concerned me when he decided to run for Senate.  No Democrat was going to win, so literally the only trait you are looking for in the doomed candidate is that he doesn't embarrass the party and make it more difficult for other winnable races.  Chris has already failed as a candidate. 

 

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

Posted
Posted
The Rogue Melania account has it's moments at times, but it also has some nuggets of info as well:
 
 
 
It feels too late to that. The entire GOP is too beholden to the Trump base. Even if all the voters that have left the party went back, they'd still lose without the votes of the cult.
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Post Oak

Post Oak 20187

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

The Rogue Melania account has it's moments at times, but it also has some nuggets of info as well:

 

 

 

For some reason Rogue Melania is the only tweeter I trust.  I think its the broken english. 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29792

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11 hours ago, gmr548 said:

That this stems from a grammar issue is very ironic given he types like a fucking mouthbreathing caveman.

Specifically the notion of proof reading. The idiot actually had an opportunity to review his disgusting remarks in print before hitting send. 

He needs to go. His language and thinking make the workplace nightmarish for co-workers. Women don't need that image even alluded to. Men who hear it are put in the position of having to speak against it or seem to acquiesce. He is an asshole. His apology is weak sauce. 

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Saint Tacky

Saint Tacky 1610

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On 6/14/2020 at 10:35 AM, Voldemort86 said:

Everything they’ve accomplished have been party specific goals. They haven’t done anything for the American population at large.

they’ve confirmed judges and created a dead zone for bills passed in the house so large that it probably could fill an entire room by now.

Because they've given up on governing and focused solely on ruling. 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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7 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Even if Mitch winning in inevitable, we're better off with Booker winning the primary .

 

Quite a difference from the last poll which showed a dead heat with McGrath.  I have no hope for that seat to be turned, even though it would be tasty, so I'm cool with Booker.  McGrath sucks.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 670

Posted
Posted

More on Hickenlooper's latest issues. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/21/john-hickenlooper-colorado-senate-stumble-330755

Quote

Democrats acknowledge Hickenlooper has made serious mistakes on what was supposed to be a glide path to the Democratic nomination. After being cited for contempt this month for initially failing to appear before Colorado’s Independent Ethics Commission, Hickenlooper was fined $2,750 for two violations dating back to his second term as governor.

He’s also apologized for comments about race, including responding to a question about the Black Lives Matter protests in a recent forum by saying the phrase means "every life matters," echoing a common refrain among conservatives.

Spoiler

In particular, some Democrats questioned the handling of the Independent Ethics Commission case against him. The hearing was delayed in March because of the Covid-19 outbreak. Hickenlooper offered to testify in person later this year, but the commission went forward with a virtual format over his objection.

The commission issued a subpoena for him to appear and held him in contempt when he did not. Hickenlooper testified the next day, and the commission found that he had violated the state’s ethics laws in two of six charges brought against him.

Democrats have called it a partisan smear because a former Republican lawmaker runs the nonprofit organization that made the allegations, which have been featured in dark-money attack ads. But some Democrats say his campaign should have fought more aggressively.

“This whole thing was a setup from the beginning, and they should have gone after it sooner,” said Laura Chapin, a veteran strategist in the state. She said the ethics ruling was “in the grand scheme of things not that big a deal,” compared to the Trump administration.

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

For those of you more dialed in folks, what is the optimal way to contribute dollars towards flipping the senate for those of us that live in blue states? Contribute to the DSCC, or contribute directly to the reported toss up race?

I would just donate directly to the candidate through ActBlue. Colorado and Arizona races have huge leads. From there you go with Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia will all be close

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

For those of you more dialed in folks, what is the optimal way to contribute dollars towards flipping the senate for those of us that live in blue states? Contribute to the DSCC, or contribute directly to the reported toss up race?

At the moment,

id focus your money on Maine, Montana, and North Carolina.

maybe we can get Collins underwater next.

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Posted
More on Hickenlooper's latest issues. 
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/21/john-hickenlooper-colorado-senate-stumble-330755

Democrats acknowledge Hickenlooper has made serious mistakes on what was supposed to be a glide path to the Democratic nomination. After being cited for contempt this month for initially failing to appear before Colorado’s Independent Ethics Commission, Hickenlooper was fined $2,750 for two violations dating back to his second term as governor.

He’s also apologized for comments about race, including responding to a question about the Black Lives Matter protests in a recent forum by saying the phrase means "every life matters," echoing a common refrain among conservatives.

Spoiler

In particular, some Democrats questioned the handling of the Independent Ethics Commission case against him. The hearing was delayed in March because of the Covid-19 outbreak. Hickenlooper offered to testify in person later this year, but the commission went forward with a virtual format over his objection.

The commission issued a subpoena for him to appear and held him in contempt when he did not. Hickenlooper testified the next day, and the commission found that he had violated the state’s ethics laws in two of six charges brought against him.

Democrats have called it a partisan smear because a former Republican lawmaker runs the nonprofit organization that made the allegations, which have been featured in dark-money attack ads. But some Democrats say his campaign should have fought more aggressively.

“This whole thing was a setup from the beginning, and they should have gone after it sooner,” said Laura Chapin, a veteran strategist in the state. She said the ethics ruling was “in the grand scheme of things not that big a deal,” compared to the Trump administration.

 
Democrats gonna Democrat and fuck around with a seat tgat should be a stone cold lock smh

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Spoiler

  Reveal hidden contents

 

In particular, some Democrats questioned the handling of the Independent Ethics Commission case against him. The hearing was delayed in March because of the Covid-19 outbreak. Hickenlooper offered to testify in person later this year, but the commission went forward with a virtual format over his objection.

The commission issued a subpoena for him to appear and held him in contempt when he did not. Hickenlooper testified the next day, and the commission found that he had violated the state’s ethics laws in two of six charges brought against him.

Democrats have called it a partisan smear because a former Republican lawmaker runs the nonprofit organization that made the allegations, which have been featured in dark-money attack ads. But some Democrats say his campaign should have fought more aggressively.

“This whole thing was a setup from the beginning, and they should have gone after it sooner,” said Laura Chapin, a veteran strategist in the state. She said the ethics ruling was “in the grand scheme of things not that big a deal,” compared to the Trump administration.

 
Democrats gonna Democrat and fuck around with a seat tgat should be a stone cold lock smh

We really Roy Moored that didn’t we. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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51 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Spoiler

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In particular, some Democrats questioned the handling of the Independent Ethics Commission case against him. The hearing was delayed in March because of the Covid-19 outbreak. Hickenlooper offered to testify in person later this year, but the commission went forward with a virtual format over his objection.

The commission issued a subpoena for him to appear and held him in contempt when he did not. Hickenlooper testified the next day, and the commission found that he had violated the state’s ethics laws in two of six charges brought against him.

Democrats have called it a partisan smear because a former Republican lawmaker runs the nonprofit organization that made the allegations, which have been featured in dark-money attack ads. But some Democrats say his campaign should have fought more aggressively.

“This whole thing was a setup from the beginning, and they should have gone after it sooner,” said Laura Chapin, a veteran strategist in the state. She said the ethics ruling was “in the grand scheme of things not that big a deal,” compared to the Trump administration.

 
Democrats gonna Democrat and fuck around with a seat tgat should be a stone cold lock smh

It's still a stone-cold lock.  Colorado is so Democratic at this point that it really doesn't matter.

As to where I would put donations, I think Montana is a bit of a waste.  Bullock already has more than enough money to campaign in a very cheap state.  He has 100% name recognition, so he doesn't need to run any introductory ads.  And the ads he does want to run can be bought for nothing.

That's kind of the way I am on Maine, too.  Gideon doesn't have the same name recognition, but it's still pretty high.  Even so, she has plenty of money, and the state is reasonably inexpensive to campaign in.

The people who need money are Cunningham in North Carolina and Ossoff in Georgia.  Both are reasonably expensive states to run a statewide campaign, and they're both going against well-funded incumbents.  After that, I'd give to Greenfield in Iowa.  I put that down lower than NC and GA just because IA is somewhat less expensive to campaign in.  But the latest polling there looks really favorable.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's still a stone-cold lock.  Colorado is so Democratic at this point that it really doesn't matter.

As to where I would put donations, I think Montana is a bit of a waste.  Bullock already has more than enough money to campaign in a very cheap state.  He has 100% name recognition, so he doesn't need to run any introductory ads.  And the ads he does want to run can be bought for nothing.

That's kind of the way I am on Maine, too.  Gideon doesn't have the same name recognition, but it's still pretty high.  Even so, she has plenty of money, and the state is reasonably inexpensive to campaign in.

The people who need money are Cunningham in North Carolina and Ossoff in Georgia.  Both are reasonably expensive states to run a statewide campaign, and they're both going against well-funded incumbents.  After that, I'd give to Greenfield in Iowa.  I put that down lower than NC and GA just because IA is somewhat less expensive to campaign in.  But the latest polling there looks really favorable.

Agree with everything here.  I threw a little bit to Bullock at the beginning and he's been consistently climbing in the polls for months.  I think Montana should be a D lean at this point.  NC and GA would be huge pick ups.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

Posted
Posted (edited)

Doug Jones released an internal poll showing him down 3, and it took place in May before the George Floyd protests. Not sure if that helps or hurts. Incumbency could have possibly softened the fears of baby killing Dem Doug Jones or whatever crazy rants people tend to say without thinking through. Republican primary hasn’t been a nice exchange either. Bama chick or Canecutter (I think that’s the poster) can probably give better insight.

 

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Cygnal an A/B pollster according to 538 is showing a 14 point deficit for Jones against Tuberville.

https://www.cygn.al/tuberville-would-beat-jones-by-wider-margin-than-sessions/

 

10 minutes ago, Blotto said:

AL is all fired up about nascar and black lives matter. The GOP is not running a pedophile. Not looking good for Jones.

That's where I am on Alabama.  I would like to think that Jones can make it close so that the Trumpublicans have to spend money there.  But we shouldn't get caught up in that trap.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Blotto said:

AL is all fired up about nascar and black lives matter. The GOP is not running a pedophile. Not looking good for Jones.

We've talked about here or on another thread about how screwed up the AL Dem party has been in the past. I believe they finally kicked out the people that ran it for a generation + but never supported many candidates. A state party supporting candidates might help some candidates but there may be some that are butt hurt due to the leadership change so they stay home. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

It gets even worse when you look at his political stances. I believe he's actually firmly to the right of Jeff Sessions. 

Marijuana needs to be fucking legal before I’m dead. I’m only in my 30’s btw. Congress is so behind public opinion it’s sad and pathetic.
 

jeff sessions and his drug war dinosaur ass needs to stay away from Congress.

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