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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Is there a thread that breaks down which D candidates have the best shot at unseating incumbents?

We need to start one.

I will tell you that a good one that is not going to a runoff is Joanna Cattanach in District 108.  She ran in 2018 against Morgan Meyer in North Dallas and lost by only 220 votes.  I think even Morgan knows he's in a lot of trouble in this one.

 

By way of disclaimer, I know Morgan and think well of him.  But he's furniture in the House.  He doesn't do anything.  So, as a Democrat, he's as inoffensive as an R can be.  But that's still pretty fucking offensive--he's got to go.

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It might be petty, it’s certainly not healthy, but I want to destroy this man. Not just politically, but I want him curled up in the fetal position on his bathroom floor wondering where his life went

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Until 2016, I was a lifelong Republican. In 2016, I couldn’t vote for either Trump or Clinton and so I threw away my vote on Gary Johnson. All of my concerns about a Trump Presidency have been realize

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11776

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1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

If you are a Texan and want to make a difference spend your money on the Texas State house.

This.

It'll pay dividends in the future.

2020 Census.

Drawing congressional state district / senate maps.

Texas can't go blue until there is fairness in our representative districts.

'Nuff said.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25898

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2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:


Yes, yes I have.

But AU threw a lot more money at her than Bama did, so that helps with the pain.

She eventually wants to go to law school so hopefully I’ll get her at Bama eventually.

She’s double majoring in political science and software engineering and then wants to use that and a law degree to go into politics.

Not to be a candidate but to work with voting rights advocacy groups.

She’s got big awesome dreams.

If she's got anything besides dreams that are big and awesome, pics would be good.

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otisdog

otisdog 365

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11 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

we have very few rules here. one of them is do not engage or quote Fozzz. he's a fucking troll

Thanks for this....didn't realize it was a rule, and wondered why everyone just let his shit slide....

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

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Alabama US Senate candidate and former Attorney General Jeff Sessions appeared to refer to Henry Louis Gates Jr., a celebrated Black Harvard University scholar, as "some criminal" in a New York Times Magazine article published Tuesday.

Gates had been wrongfully arrested by a Cambridge, Massachusetts, police officer in 2009 as he tried to enter his own home. After the incident, then-President Barack Obama invited Gates and the arresting officer to the White House for a "beer summit."

Sessions appeared to cite that meeting as a reason that morale among law enforcement had dropped during Obama's presidency.

"The police had been demoralized. There was all the Obama -- there's a riot, and he has a beer at the White House with some criminal, to listen to him," Sessions said, appearing to refer to the 2009 meeting. "Wasn't having a beer with the police officers. So we said, 'We're on your side. We've got your back, you got our thanks.' "

While Sessions said Obama didn't have a beer with "the police officers," Sgt. Joe Crowley of the Cambridge Police Department -- the arresting officer in the incident -- did join Gates, Obama and then-Vice President Joe Biden for a beer at the White House during the summit.

Sessions' campaign did not immediately respond to CNN's request for comment. The New York Times Magazine asked Sessions' campaign to clarify what he meant by the comment but the campaign declined.

If I'm still kicking around in 30-40 years, I fully expect the GOP to be campaigning against Obama. 

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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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I am getting myself mentally ready to be very disappointed this nov with senate elections and the Rs holding on to majority. The Dems will fuck it up and fail to convince the voters with all the shit going on, they just don’t know how to hammer single points that stick.

Even if they secure all 3 branches, they will play partisan and get nothing done 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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50 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

I am getting myself mentally ready to be very disappointed this nov with senate elections and the Rs holding on to majority. The Dems will fuck it up and fail to convince the voters with all the shit going on, they just don’t know how to hammer single points that stick.

Even if they secure all 3 branches, they will play partisan and get nothing done 

Don’t be too disappointed.

jones is a goner, but so is Gardner and mcsally. It’s a pro-Democrat environment this year. The worst we could probably do is 49 senate seats. The map is still expanding and incumbents are being attacked all over the map. The picture could look a lot better in a few months. It already looks pretty good right now with Ernst, Collins, Daines, and tillis fighting for their lives.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13414

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31 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

I donated to campaigns for the first time this year.

I'm tempted to donate to Collins' opponent just because I've hated her actions on almost everything. I can at least respect the most far-right conservative Senator if he/she follows through on their statements and beliefs. I can strongly disagree with the statements or beliefs but at least they're reliable on how they act. Collins will say one thing and then act the opposite. 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33843

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10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm tempted to donate to Collins' opponent just because I've hated her actions on almost everything. I can at least respect the most far-right conservative Senator if he/she follows through on their statements and beliefs. I can strongly disagree with the statements or beliefs but at least they're reliable on how they act. Collins will say one thing and then act the opposite. 

[Boomer]So, you mean a politician. Serves you right for believing a politician[/Boomer]

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thepop

thepop 4409

Posted
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm tempted to donate to Collins' opponent just because I've hated her actions on almost everything. I can at least respect the most far-right conservative Senator if he/she follows through on their statements and beliefs. I can strongly disagree with the statements or beliefs but at least they're reliable on how they act. Collins will say one thing and then act the opposite. 

As far as senate races to donate to, that's a good one. Along with North Carolina.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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3 minutes ago, thepop said:

As far as senate races to donate to, that's a good one. Along with North Carolina.

North Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina.  I can't say it enough.  That's where the money needs to go right now.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Posted (edited)

Greenfield in Iowa is catching momentum after Ernst has had two bombed interviews and good fundraising. Couple polls show her with a lead.

North Carolina Cal Cunningham just had the highest quarterly fundraising in the state.

South Carolina Jaime Harrison just put in a staggering number above. Lindsey doesn’t know whether to pivot away from Trump or not.

public Pollicy Polling just announced they are conducting Alaska polls. Democrats and Independents have a a state house majority as a coalition.

Steve Bullock has shown leads in Montana and raised more as a Senate candidate then as a Presidential one.

Gideon is about to get hit with a money bomb when she clinches her seat from the Kavanaugh haters, of which there is many in Maine.

Hickenlooper in Colorado and Kelly in Arizona should be locks.

IMO, Hegar or West will capitalize on Beto’s PAC and donor list to put up a huge number in the weeks after the runoff is decided.

Unsure what to think about Doug Jones in Alabama. The Rs are gonna fuck around and find out

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Gap03

Gap03 3286

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18 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Greenfield in Iowa is catching momentum after Ernst has had two bombed interviews and good fundraising. Couple polls show her with a lead.

North Carolina Cal Cunningham just had the highest quarterly fundraising in the state.

South Carolina Jaime Harrison just put in a staggering number above. Lindsey doesn’t know whether to pivot away from Trump or not.

public Pollicy Polling just announced they are conducting Alaska polls. Democrats and Independents have a a state house majority as a coalition.

Steve Bullock has shown leads in Montana and raised more as a Senate candidate then as a Presidential one.

Gideon is about to get hit with a money bomb when she clinches her seat from the Kavanaugh haters, of which there is many in Maine.

Hickenlooper in Colorado and Kelly in Arizona should be locks.

IMO, Hegar or West will capitalize on Beto’s PAC and donor list to put up a huge number in the weeks after the runoff is decided.

Unsure what to think about Doug Jones in Alabama. The Rs are gonna fuck around and find out

giphy.gif

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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26 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Public Pollicy Polling just announced they are conducting Alaska polls. Democrats and Independents have a a state house majority as a coalition.

Alaska is super-interesting, because the politics there are generally removed from national trends/issues.  The entire state relies on federal funding and O&G, which creates a cross-partisan dynamic.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29177

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6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

What is the general consensus on Hegar or West having the best chance of making it interesting?

the rollingstone.com article seemed to imply cornyn was in more trouble than people realized, because his numbers were trailing trump's, and trump was within the moe in texas.

i've been a little out of the loop on senate stuff, but what's going on with murkowski?  is she still an official "r" or has she drifted into indie status?  and what does that mean for an election with potentially 50 dem senators?  i know if biden wins, 50-50 is essentially a blue senate anyway, but wasn't sure what her situation was.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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9 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

What is the general consensus on Hegar or West having the best chance of making it interesting?

Hegar is the one who has been tagged by the DSCC and she consequently has a sizable lead in fundraising.  

Beyond that, I would just generally say that I'm really skeptical of a Black man's ability to win a statewide race in Texas.  I wish Texas would prove me wrong.  But I don't think it would.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15492

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6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

the rollingstone.com article seemed to imply cornyn was in more trouble than people realized, because his numbers were trailing trump's, and trump was within the moe in texas.

i've been a little out of the loop on senate stuff, but what's going on with murkowski?  is she still an official "r" or has she drifted into indie status?  and what does that mean for an election with potentially 50 dem senators?  i know if biden wins, 50-50 is essentially a blue senate anyway, but wasn't sure what her situation was.

Murkowski is an (R).  She was elected as an independent in 2010, but always caucused with the Republicans.  She was reelected in 2016 as a Republican.

I don't know what's going on with her.  It's also worth remembering that Alaska has a huge Native American population, which (somewhat unique to Alaska) carries a lot of financial clout.  I think I've seen some polling indicating that they have become more disaffected with the Republican Party.

She would be an obvious candidate to crossover, if the price were right.  She has a demonstrated ability to win outside the party structure.  The only problem is that she is up for reelection in 2022.  And the conventional wisdom is that a midterm should be bad for the party in the White House (presumably, the Democrats).   

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

so to add (and to catch me up), assuming a jones loss, we need to go +4 to get to 50.

ariz, maine, colo, montana are looking solid.

north caro is a possibility.  does that math look right?

Montana is looking favorable, but I'd hate to count on such a Trumpublican state.

I'd prefer to focus on NC for that fourth.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

What is the general consensus on Hegar or West having the best chance of making it interesting?

Not sure if there is a general concensus, so I’ll give mine 🙃

A recent poll showed both of them being down 10 against Cornyn. There is no way that doesn’t tighten up. It will be a better question for who can bring together a coalition of minority voters, the base, and growing resentment amongst suburban women I think.

If Hegar wins, can she tap into the white suburban women bloc who have turned their back on a Republican Party they now find repulsive? Absolutely, she is one of them. She will have to energize minority voters as well, and I haven’t noticed much. Republican men that may be skeptical of Cornyn, will probably find the military service admirable as a Purple Heart recipient.She has the DSCC support though which is big.

If West wins, he will have a lot of momentum at his back with people finally giving a damn about the BLM movement and minority treatment as a black state Senator. He has 27 years experience and authored the police body cam bill in Texas. Criminal Justice reforms in Texas usually go a long ways nationally, but I don’t know the effect this one had. There is a critique that officers are allowed to view the footage before releasing if I’m remembering right. With those years of experience and overwhelmingly the support of the Democrats in the Texas Lege he should bring a nice coalition and can step into cities and towns with those individuals and not be an outsider. Will he be able to tap into the suburban soccer moms? Maybe, don’t feel as strong here. Cornyn is generally not a shitheel, and not as loathed as Cruz.

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ultimaton

ultimaton 2966

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Just got back from voting. If you're concerned about safety now's definitely the time to vote if you have to do it in person -- I was the only voter in there, the entire process took less than five minutes, and it looked like they had a lot of safety precautions in place (everyone masked, sanitizers for the pens and pencils, no contact with anybody else, etc).

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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Look, we Americans have completely nationalized the Senate races lately and don’t really split tickets anymore. There is just no way Trump loses bigly and doesn’t lose like 8 or 9 Senate seats as a result. That’s just not how this works anymore. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16513

Posted
Posted



so to add (and to catch me up), assuming a jones loss, we need to go +4 to get to 50.
ariz, maine, colo, montana are looking solid.
north caro is a possibility.  does that math look right?


Not sure that I'd call ME or MT solid just yet. Probably group them with NC as promising opportunities, with ME the most likely to graduate to a blowout. IA worth keeping an eye on.

I'm not a buyer on TX. I think Cornyn cruises unfortunately.
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gmr548

gmr548 16513

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Posted
Look, we Americans have completely nationalized the Senate races lately and don’t really split tickets anymore. There is just no way Trump loses bigly and doesn’t lose like 8 or 9 Senate seats as a result. That’s just not how this works anymore. 
Generally this. Candidates do still matter but Senate races are trending towards presidential partisanship. It's why I like NC more than most for Democrats. I have a hunch Cooper and Biden get Cunningham across the finish line.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18980

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Just now, gmr548 said:
13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
Look, we Americans have completely nationalized the Senate races lately and don’t really split tickets anymore. There is just no way Trump loses bigly and doesn’t lose like 8 or 9 Senate seats as a result. That’s just not how this works anymore. 

Generally this. Candidates do still matter but Senate races are trending towards presidential partisanship. It's why I like NC more than most for Democrats. I have a hunch Cooper and Biden get Cunningham across the finish line.

Yep.  And it’s also why, if I were a Dem, I wouldn’t feel too groggy about Montana. Sure it could happen, especially if Trump does as poorly as I think he will, but he’s winning Montana by like 15 regardless right?  So that seems like a big lift to win there. But yeah, if he fucks around and loses Iowa by 5 or 6 Ernst is toast. When he loses Georgia both of those guys/gals are gone, right?  Aren’t they both up?  Isn’t there some sort of ethical scandal over Covid and selling stocks that might take down another GOP guy and get him replaced by a Dem governor perhaps?  
I don’t know what the exact details are but a sitting president doesn’t get buttfucked in an election and lose 3 seats. No way. 

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