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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep.  And it’s also why, if I were a Dem, I wouldn’t feel too groggy about Montana. Sure it could happen, especially if Trump does as poorly as I think he will, but he’s winning Montana by like 15 regardless right?  So that seems like a big lift to win there. But yeah, if he fucks around and loses Iowa by 5 or 6 Ernst is toast. When he loses Georgia both of those guys/gals are gone, right?  Aren’t they both up?  Isn’t there some sort of ethical scandal over Covid and selling stocks that might take down another GOP guy and get him replaced by a Dem governor perhaps?  
I don’t know what the exact details are but a sitting president doesn’t get buttfucked in an election and lose 3 seats. No way. 

Montana is a last bastion of split voters. It’s a small tight knit kinda state and candidate quality seems to be more important than partisanship there.
 

Bullock won re-election as governor while trump was running up the score in Montana in 2016. The people of Montana love them some Bullock and Jon tester. I’d say it’s 50/50 shot there at least.

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gmr548

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Montana is a last bastion of split voters. It’s a small tight knit kinda state and candidate quality seems to be more important than partisanship there.
 
Bullock won re-election as governor while trump was running up the score in Montana in 2016. The people of Montana love them some Bullock and Jon tester. I’d say it’s 50/50 shot there at least.
Yeah, Montana is absolutely an example of why candidates matter. Generic D gets rekt. Popular two term governor? Not so much.
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12572

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6 hours ago, gmr548 said:


 

 


Not sure that I'd call ME or MT solid just yet. Probably group them with NC as promising opportunities, with ME the most likely to graduate to a blowout. IA worth keeping an eye on.

I'm not a buyer on TX. I think Cornyn cruises unfortunately.

 

I agree.

If Beto or either one of the CAstro bros were in this I think we’d have a shot.

But alas, Beto and Castro twin 1 both just tried to leapfrog any statewide office to the Presidency. Dumb. Their progressive ‘hard to da paint‘  has pretty much eliminated them from statewide office .... well maybe not Julian. But Beto’s gun dumbassery sure as shit did.

And Castro twin 2 shrank away thinking that he can win later after demographics are more favorable. Governor 2022? Senate 2024?

Fortune favors the bold, motherfucker. Joaquin is probably stewing that he didn’t run.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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Re- Montana and ticket splitting:

sure- that could be the exception that proves the rule, and I’m certainly not saying Bullock doesn’t win, just that I’d be less confident of a win there than a state like AZ or NC or Ga or something like that that’s going blue at the presidential level. 
also- ticket splitting for governorships is still not a problem. That’s a local race and has been nationalized much less than Senate seats, so a GOP governor in MA or a Dem Gov on Kansas is no big deal. A senator from the minority party is huge and seems to be reserved for just the most wretched of candidates fucking up an election from the majority party. See, Alabama, legitimate rape guy in MO, other screw ball guy in IN in 2012 etc. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9989

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Re- Montana and ticket splitting:

sure- that could be the exception that proves the rule, and I’m certainly not saying Bullock doesn’t win, just that I’d be less confident of a win there than a state like AZ or NC or Ga or something like that that’s going blue at the presidential level. 
also- ticket splitting for governorships is still not a problem. That’s a local race and has been nationalized much less than Senate seats, so a GOP governor in MA or a Dem Gov on Kansas is no big deal. A senator from the minority party is huge and seems to be reserved for just the most wretched of candidates fucking up an election from the majority party. See, Alabama, legitimate rape guy in MO, other screw ball guy in IN in 2012 etc. 

I mean, the last two governors of Montana have been Democrats. The Democrats have held the Governorship for 15 years. Tester has survived 3 elections, ousting Conrad Burns and beating the popular at large Congressman.  MT is 100% a ticket splitting state. 
 

It went for Obama in 08, and elected a GOP congressman.
 

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

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It went for Obama in 08
 


No it didn't. But when I looked this up I was surprised how close it was - just two points. Definitely competitive. It'd be pretty pretty funny for Biden to pick off a state like Montana. Dotard would just love to be known as the first Republican to lose it in a generation.
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9989

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6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


 

 


No it didn't. But when I looked this up I was surprised how close it was - just two points. Definitely competitive. It'd be pretty pretty funny for Biden to pick off a state like Montana. Dotard would just love to be known as the first Republican to lose it in a generation.

 

I stand corrected.  That’s what I get for winging it while waiting to pick up my kid from swim practice.  I must have been thinking of Nebraska 2nd CD. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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57 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

Why no Cornyn in that vid? 

Hate to say it, but they want to go after senators who are clearly vulnerable. the ad would lose credibility if it had a senator in there who could still likely win by 10-15 points.

I hope this is Cornyn’s last gravy train election tho. Hopefully he’s voted out next time or he has to retire for some reason.

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bolverk

bolverk 30230

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40 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hate to say it, but they want to go after senators who are clearly vulnerable. the ad would lose credibility if it had a senator in there who could still likely win by 10-15 points.

I hope this is Cornyn’s last gravy train election tho. Hopefully he’s voted out next time or he has to retire for some reason.

Yeah, but they prominently highlight "Com'On Ted..." and he ain't even on the ballot this year. I understand that no one likes him, and there's some utility in that, but Cornyn is the silent but deadly stench of number two coming at you in the Senate.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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9 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, but they prominently highlight "Com'On Ted..." and he ain't even on the ballot this year. I understand that no one likes him, and there's some utility in that, but Cornyn is the silent but deadly stench of number two coming at you in the Senate.

Cruz won by less than 2 points and probably won’t win in 2024 if he runs. Everyone hates him.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3966

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3 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Hate to say it, but they want to go after senators who are clearly vulnerable. the ad would lose credibility if it had a senator in there who could still likely win by 10-15 points.

I hope this is Cornyn’s last gravy train election tho. Hopefully he’s voted out next time or he has to retire for some reason.

They have Cruz and Rubio in there and they're not even up for re-election...... they wanted nationally known brown nosers  or swing state nominees.  Cornyn's just not a sexy name to the rest of America.  Most of America knows who Cruz is, most don't know who Cornyn is.  He's just sort of your rote, ass kissing Republican, not a top level ass hat.

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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He popped up for a second, so there's that.

I think he’s just not as well known nationally as the others.

This one had the usual suspects - Cruz, Lady G, McConnell - and the top vulnerable incumbents - Gardener, Ernst, Collins.

Rick Wilson said on Twitter today this is just their first shot across the bow of the Senate enablers.

I’d imagine they have a Cornyn specific one that will have more local Texas flavor.

They released one for Bullock in Montana a couple of weeks ago and it felt like an ad made by people who knew Montana - down to using a narrator from there.
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31987

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On 7/7/2020 at 1:31 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Not sure if there is a general concensus, so I’ll give mine 🙃

A recent poll showed both of them being down 10 against Cornyn. There is no way that doesn’t tighten up. It will be a better question for who can bring together a coalition of minority voters, the base, and growing resentment amongst suburban women I think.

If Hegar wins, can she tap into the white suburban women bloc who have turned their back on a Republican Party they now find repulsive? Absolutely, she is one of them. She will have to energize minority voters as well, and I haven’t noticed much. Republican men that may be skeptical of Cornyn, will probably find the military service admirable as a Purple Heart recipient.She has the DSCC support though which is big.

If West wins, he will have a lot of momentum at his back with people finally giving a damn about the BLM movement and minority treatment as a black state Senator. He has 27 years experience and authored the police body cam bill in Texas. Criminal Justice reforms in Texas usually go a long ways nationally, but I don’t know the effect this one had. There is a critique that officers are allowed to view the footage before releasing if I’m remembering right. With those years of experience and overwhelmingly the support of the Democrats in the Texas Lege he should bring a nice coalition and can step into cities and towns with those individuals and not be an outsider. Will he be able to tap into the suburban soccer moms? Maybe, don’t feel as strong here. Cornyn is generally not a shitheel, and not as loathed as Cruz.

I'm frankly a little wary of a 30-year politician.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

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Gotcha, I’m not going to trust a former Republican from four years ago to continue an infrastructure build in a state that has the potential to shut the door on the GOP in future presidential elections. I look at the election as a needed party/power building exercise. I’d rather have the first statewide elected Democrat in Texas in however many years have roots and existing relationships in the party to capitalize on that.

Edited by StassneyHorn
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

And I cannot WAIT to see their ad for this abhorrent cunt.

 

She’s such a worthless bimbo. In almost every interview I’ve seen of her she says “ I’m a fighter pilot”. As if people should just hand her the damn seat she’s running for because she was in the military. 
 

what a joke.

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gmr548

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She’s such a worthless bimbo. In almost every interview I’ve seen of her she says “ I’m a fighter pilot”. As if people should just hand her the damn seat she’s running for because she was in the military. 
 
what a joke.
She knows who her opponent is, right?
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gmr548

gmr548 16681

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I'm frankly a little wary of a 30-year politician.
Gotcha, I’m not going to trust a former Republican from four years ago to continue an infrastructure build in a state that has the potential to shut the door on the GOP in future presidential elections. I look at the election as a needed party/power building exercise. I’d rather have the first statewide elected Democrat in Texas in however many years have roots and existing relationships in the party to capitalize on that.

Yeah, I feel both of these. I'm going to vote tomorrow and probably waiting until the gut takes over at the machine to decide.
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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26853

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On 7/8/2020 at 3:41 PM, Bama Chick said:

Look at this absolute nonsense.

 

It makes it look like Jeff Sessions burned that car himself to stand up to the mob, the same way he burned Tuberville's bus.

Don't fuck with Pyro Elf. Jeff Sessions will burn your shit.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6755

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You demanded it, and you got it. Alaska polling. Nobody has heard of Al Gross. The people who have, like him. DSCC should tell McGrath to help a guy out. Cause he actually has a chance.

PPP’s new Alaska poll finds that the Presidential race in the state this year might be the closest it’s been since the 1960s. Donald Trump is under water on his approval rating, with 46% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove. He leads Joe Biden by just 3 points at 48-45. Biden has a double digit lead with independent voters at 52-39. Republicans have won the state by at least 9 points in every election since 1968.

You can add Alaska to the growing list of potentially competitive Senate races where Republicans are going to have to play defense this fall. Dan Sullivan hasn’t established much of a profile with voters in the state- only 35% approve of the job he’s doing to 37% who disapprove, and 27% have no opinion about him one way or the other. He leads Al Gross just 39-34 for reelection. Gross isn’t very well known yet- 72% of voters say they have no opinion about him. Among the voters who are familiar enough with him to have an opinion he actually leads Sullivan 56-36, suggesting that if he has the funds necessary to become well known in the state he will have a good chance at making it a top tier race.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/close-races-abound-in-alaska/

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, Gap03 said:

 

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e475b1084f6ce3bf5bd67

I’m no damn expert, but this polling should be true. Not saying it is, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that Tillis is a very weak and pathetic senator. If you ask me, North Carolina needs to completely overhaul their senators like Arizona is about to do ( with 2 party switches or flips).

I will say that Arizona is only going to have 2 Democratic senators because of McCain’s death tho. The guy had a great relationship with his state and was widely respected. I bet Arizona would’ve elected him several more times with ease. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16681

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I’m no damn expert, but this polling should be true. Not saying it is, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that Tillis is a very weak and pathetic senator. If you ask me, North Carolina needs to completely overhaul their senators like Arizona is about to do ( with 2 party switches or flips).
I will say that Arizona is only going to have 2 Democratic senators because of McCain’s death tho. The guy had a great relationship with his state and was widely respected. I bet Arizona would’ve elected him several more times with ease. 
Arizona would already have two Democratic senators because McCain would've switched parties by now.
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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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I haven’t looked at the latest number details but don’t discount the “Silent Jones voter” down here - it happened last time.

And there’s four more months of Tuberville sticking his foot in his mouth.

Y’all wrote Jones off when he ran against Roy Moore too.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

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On 7/9/2020 at 6:17 PM, Voldemort86 said:

I’m no damn expert, but this polling should be true. Not saying it is, but it doesn’t take a genius to see that Tillis is a very weak and pathetic senator. If you ask me, North Carolina needs to completely overhaul their senators like Arizona is about to do ( with 2 party switches or flips).

I will say that Arizona is only going to have 2 Democratic senators because of McCain’s death tho. The guy had a great relationship with his state and was widely respected. I bet Arizona would’ve elected him several more times with ease. 

PPP is a Democratic pollster, but they're legit. Accounting for the few points bias to the left, this race still looks like a Dem lean.

39% is awful for an incumbent.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

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On 7/9/2020 at 6:04 PM, StassneyHorn said:

You demanded it, and you got it. Alaska polling. Nobody has heard of Al Gross. The people who have, like him. DSCC should tell McGrath to help a guy out. Cause he actually has a chance.

PPP’s new Alaska poll finds that the Presidential race in the state this year might be the closest it’s been since the 1960s. Donald Trump is under water on his approval rating, with 46% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove. He leads Joe Biden by just 3 points at 48-45. Biden has a double digit lead with independent voters at 52-39. Republicans have won the state by at least 9 points in every election since 1968.

You can add Alaska to the growing list of potentially competitive Senate races where Republicans are going to have to play defense this fall. Dan Sullivan hasn’t established much of a profile with voters in the state- only 35% approve of the job he’s doing to 37% who disapprove, and 27% have no opinion about him one way or the other. He leads Al Gross just 39-34 for reelection. Gross isn’t very well known yet- 72% of voters say they have no opinion about him. Among the voters who are familiar enough with him to have an opinion he actually leads Sullivan 56-36, suggesting that if he has the funds necessary to become well known in the state he will have a good chance at making it a top tier race.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/close-races-abound-in-alaska/

I was curious to see what kind of impact donations would have in this race. Two questions I had was how much has each candidate raised and how expensive it is to campaign in Alaska.

It's easy enough to find information to answer the first question. Sullivan has $4.5M on-hand as of March. He raised 8 million in 2014 when he was last up. Gross has $2M on-hand. Online ad expenditure is almost even between the candidates and not that high to date. That's all there is on opensecrets, so I have no answer to the second question.

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2020&id=AKS1&spec=N

In any case, $2 million isn't nothing, so I think Gross should set up to be funded well enough already to get his name out there. 

 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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go do work bama chick !

I have been!

 

Was on a volunteer conference call two days ago!

 

We aren’t going down without a fight.

 

And even though Jones’s numbers are worse against Tuberville right now, I’d rather him be the opponent than Sessions.

 

The still brainwashed Trumpkins don’t like Sessions but if it’s Sessions v. Jones? They’ll reluctantly go to Sessions.

 

Sessions is a better politician and as this virus continues to get worse, Sessions being broken away from Trump gives him the freedom to distance himself and Tuberville is too dumb/scared to do that.

 

Plus, Tuberville is DUMB. And says DUMB shit.

 

And he’s an Aubbie that even Auburn fans don’t like.

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