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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Chuckie Finster
Chuckie Finster

It might be petty, it’s certainly not healthy, but I want to destroy this man. Not just politically, but I want him curled up in the fetal position on his bathroom floor wondering where his life went

hornmpa96
hornmpa96

Until 2016, I was a lifelong Republican. In 2016, I couldn’t vote for either Trump or Clinton and so I threw away my vote on Gary Johnson. All of my concerns about a Trump Presidency have been realize

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I bet trump is worried about picking wrong. If he endorses someone that doesn’t end up getting the nomination, it’ll break up the trump mystique right before the election. He probably only wants to endorse layups right now.

Trump has picked wrong many times this election cycle, but they have been mainly house races. This senate seat primary will be watched with great interest all over the country. Democrats obviously want Kobach to advance. Most National Repubs probably want Marshall and the racist/ white supremacist / Stephen miller wing of the GOP probably wants Kobach.

im hoping it’s a close race like the primary / general were for Kobachs race last year. At least Give me some entertainment on Tuesday.

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Bookman

Bookman 4610

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11 hours ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Essentially a commission designed to uncover the rampant voter fraud consistently alluded to by Republicans. Couldn't find any, said "nevermind" and disbanded.

Asked for a list of Texas voters with Hispanic surnames, and then denied asking for said list. Or something like that.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20707

Posted
Posted

 

1. McGrath is a bad candidate, so this is not a surprise. 

2. Progressives are mad because they think Booker would have beat Mitch, but it was just as unlikely as McGrath's chances

3. Wish Booker was still the candidate because his campaign would have been a lot more productive than McGrath's. 

4. Chuck Schumer should stop propping up shitty candidates. 

5. Waaaaaay too much money has been wasted on this race

 

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16516

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i'd rather give up the slight chance a D gets the KS senate spot than risk Kobach being a US Senator.  it's like reelecting strom thurmond or something.
Yeah. Kobach in the Senate at all, even with a Democratic majority, is terrible. Because if elected, and he likely would be, as a Republican incumbent in Kansas he's safe for life. He can't have the platform of a US Senator.
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406W30th

406W30th 1111

Posted
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2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Today is the day that Kris Kobach hopefully becomes Kansas GOP candidate for the fall.

 

make it happen!

This sounds like when my father-in-law was hoping for Donald Trump to be the GOP candidate for president.

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9905

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Posted (edited)

Meh...we’ve survived Tom Cotton, we’ll survive Kobach.  
 

Jesus McGrath is a shitty candidate.  I’m not sure Booker would be any more competitive; but it’s hard To overstate how uninspired McGrath is.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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Yeah- Fick that bullshit about- I want the other party to nominate a moron bc they will be easier to beat. Uh, what if you don’t beat them and get stuck with them?

No thanks, give me the person who if they win will be the best. I don’t want to get stuck with president AOC someday because I think her getting nominated will be the best chance for the price to win in the future 

feel free to change out AOC for, oh, I don’t know, Donald trump the other way of that’s your persuasion. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Meh...we’ve survived Tom Cotton, we’ll survive Kobach.  
 

Jesus McGrath is a shitty candidate.  I’m not sure Booker would be any more competitive; but it’s hard To overstate how uninspired McGrath is.

$40 million down the drain, in a world where resources are gonna be tight. Democrats are and always will be their own worst enemy 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32703

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37 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- Fick that bullshit about- I want the other party to nominate a moron bc they will be easier to beat. Uh, what if you don’t beat them and get stuck with them?

No thanks, give me the person who if they win will be the best. I don’t want to get stuck with president AOC someday because I think her getting nominated will be the best chance for the price to win in the future 

feel free to change out AOC for, oh, I don’t know, Donald trump the other way of that’s your persuasion. 

lulz at equivocating between those two

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

lulz at equivocating between those two

Not equivocating between the two or saying they are the same person. Merely saying she is the scary boogie man for the right- and I hear people say stuff like- if only they could nominate her- we’d win easy (or Bernie if that floats your boat- same argument). Which is of course what every Dem and mainstream media member that gave Trump billions in free media in 2016 were thinking. That didn’t work out. 
 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

$40 million down the drain, in a world where resources are gonna be tight. Democrats are and always will be their own worst enemy 

In what world are resources tight for the Dems?  They can burn as much cash as they want with no repressions. Just spent the week in Maine. Literally every commercial break on TV was a negative ad on Collins. I don’t think it’s possible for them to spend more money than they are right now. 
seriously, you guys can light money on fire wherever you want.  It’s no big deal. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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36 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

In what world are resources tight for the Dems?  They can burn as much cash as they want with no repressions. Just spent the week in Maine. Literally every commercial break on TV was a negative ad on Collins. I don’t think it’s possible for them to spend more money than they are right now. 
seriously, you guys can light money on fire wherever you want.  It’s no big deal. 

A world where we’re in a pandemic. I mean, I’d rather not waste money 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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6 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

A world where we’re in a pandemic. I mean, I’d rather not waste money 

They ain’t giving any of that money back my man. Seriously, trust me, money isn’t a problem for y’all. 
I’m telling you, y’all are acting like Bill in Sinton with his “focusness” posts the week before we play UTEP. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9905

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Posted (edited)

Roger Marshall may look and occasionally talk like a mainline conservative, but he's not.  He's just less insane than Kobach.  I've been to two non partisan breakfasts with the man, WITH CONSTITUENTS, and he turned it into a partisan clown show for no reason what so ever.  All he had to do was grip and grin, make a few jokes about the basketball team, and bounce, and instead he launched into a screed.  The folks I took to the breakfast were life long GOP voters and were appalled.

I just feel like ANYONE would have been better than McGrath.  That's on Schumer.  Idk who identified her but what a fail.

Edited by Bateshorn
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gmr548

gmr548 16516

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Posted
They ain’t giving any of that money back my man. Seriously, trust me, money isn’t a problem for y’all. 
I’m telling you, y’all are acting like Bill in Sinton with his “focusness” posts the week before we play UTEP. 
I remember the last time Texas played UTEP. It was the week after the ND win in 2016. Texas won by like 40 but still couldn't stop Aaron Jones, despite UTEP never even bothering to consider throwing the ball. At that moment I knew, but wouldn't admit until the next week at Cal, the defense was going to lose games single handedly that year. As a group, Democrats are very actively not allowing themselves to say "Democrats are BACK, folks!"
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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1 minute ago, gmr548 said:
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:
They ain’t giving any of that money back my man. Seriously, trust me, money isn’t a problem for y’all. 
I’m telling you, y’all are acting like Bill in Sinton with his “focusness” posts the week before we play UTEP. 

I remember the last time Texas played UTEP. It was the week after the ND win in 2016. Texas won by like 40 but still couldn't stop Aaron Jones, despite UTEP never even bothering to consider throwing the ball. At that moment I knew, but wouldn't admit until the next week at Cal, the defense was going to lose games single handedly that year. As a group, Democrats are very actively not allowing themselves to say "Democrats are BACK, folks!"

Sure. And that’s all well and good. But it’s going to go down just like 2018 did. There’s a lot of fear over nothing imo. 
mans the point is- we did beat them by 40 bc they were that bad, but it was eye opening how inadequate we were at various football related issues. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45497

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Posted
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:
They ain’t giving any of that money back my man. Seriously, trust me, money isn’t a problem for y’all. 
I’m telling you, y’all are acting like Bill in Sinton with his “focusness” posts the week before we play UTEP. 

I remember the last time Texas played UTEP. It was the week after the ND win in 2016. Texas won by like 40 but still couldn't stop Aaron Jones, despite UTEP never even bothering to consider throwing the ball. At that moment I knew, but wouldn't admit until the next week at Cal, the defense was going to lose games single handedly that year. As a group, Democrats are very actively not allowing themselves to say "Democrats are BACK, folks!"

18 Wheeler baby!

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11777

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Kobach is a weird dude. From what I can tell, his life’s work is to keep Mexicans out of America via legal and illegal immigration.

You would too if you’ve ever eaten Mexican food in Kansas.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11777

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8 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

I know it’s a Senate thread, but Medicaid expansion has been called . Kobach is dead

 

My natural reaction to this is that 

1.) Missouri and Kansas are two different states... even though I can get confused like the President about that whole ‘Kansas City’ thing

2.) Primary vs. total population...

But, hey, what do I know? 

[Narrator: He knew nothing of Kansas or Missouri politics... outside of watching the Ozarks.... which again, means nothing]

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

My official vote: 49-51.  Flips in AZ, CO, NC, AL.  Comes up short: IA, MT, ME.  Others: not actually competitive.

That’s by far the Republican best case scenario and while possible is not likely since trump is likely to shit himself onstage at some point between now and the election. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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13 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

And yeah Susan Collins is done. Ernst likely is too and I think Montana flips as well. After that lots of toss ups that could favor the dems. No dem to republican flips except Bama. 

Collins and Tillis are really getting slammed hard right now.  Tillis’s problem is he was never popular in the first place and the very popular Democrat governor cooper is on the ballot. 

Collins problem is that she gave trump too many wins and too close to the election. Most democrats give the credit to killing Obamacare repeal ( legislative attempt) to the late John McCain. Collins will probably struggle to stay above water with all the money that’s coming after her. 

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Collins and Ernst still seem within striking distance. I have to wonder if they've hit the floor of how low they can fall. 

Tillis - done.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/

Capture - Copy.JPG

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-ranking-the-top-dozen-best-targets/
 

interesting report from Sabato today. They ranked the senate targets in order from most appealing to least appealing.

obviously Alabama is #1 and will flip, Colorado is closely behind at #2.

 

i was surprised to see North Carolina ranked 5th behind Maine. Are tons of people really going to split their tickets Cooper, Tillis, trump?  Why would they bother to keep Tillis who is a pretty much a ghetto version of John cornyn? the polling I’ve seen for Tillis has all been ugly, but I’ve seen some decent senate polls for Collins. 
 

1 other thing of note is Michigan was ranked 9th in most appealing targets. Which makes you pretty confident it won’t flip.
 

 

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

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Posted

First DSCC backed candidate lost yesterday in Tennessee. Marquita Bradshaw won thanks to Memphis dominating the vote. She reported only $8k in the first quarter and didn’t even file a 2nd quarter fundraising to the FEC. She will not win, and the only real downballot pickup is one seat in the Memphis area, as most are already Democratic but still have crazily drawn districts. The US house seat in Memphis is already reliably D with Steve Cohen, but I could see this springboarding Bradshaw into a primary against him next year.

 Off the top of my head, the DSCC has picked 3 white Veterans with more moderate views over more liberal black candidates (McGrath and Hegar the others) and narrowly pulled out victories for their guys this cycle. Candidates who don’t have the DSCC support in a primary often complain about them having “their thumb on the scale” in terms of influence, and with the BLM protests over George Floyd’s death this year, the early support and subsequent fundraising success definitely made a difference, IMO.

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gmr548

gmr548 16516

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http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-ranking-the-top-dozen-best-targets/
 
interesting report from Sabato today. They ranked the senate targets in order from most appealing to least appealing.
obviously Alabama is #1 and will flip, Colorado is closely behind at #2.
 
i was surprised to see North Carolina ranked 5th behind Maine. Are tons of people really going to split their tickets Cooper, Tillis, trump?  Why would they bother to keep Tillis who is a pretty much a ghetto version of John cornyn? the polling I’ve seen for Tillis has all been ugly, but I’ve seen some decent senate polls for Collins. 
 
1 other thing of note is Michigan was ranked 9th in most appealing targets. Which makes you pretty confident it won’t flip.
 
 
I always get a kick out of "top ten seat flip" lists or similar. You start filling it out with total lottery tickets after the first half dozen seats or so. It's like the back end of the AP top 25. No, Texas wasn't good last year, but someone's gotta be #25. There just aren't that many competitive senate races in a given cycle.

Thillis is in pretty deep shit, I've been convinced of that for a while. I think NC delivers big for Democrats this year. GOP cannot win that state with huge black turnout when their margin among educated whites has evaporated. Just doesn't add up.

I don't think Ds get over the hump in IA. Really need Maine, but deespite okay polling, you could say I'm "deeply concerned" Collins-style about Maine. Incumbents often find ways to win close races like that.

I'm starting to think Ds only net two seats and the GOP keeps the Senate, which is a fucking disaster. ME, IA, and MT are all close enough that you'd think it's hard for the GOP to split all three, but they're all demographically lilly white with GOP incumbents.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted
21 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I always get a kick out of "top ten seat flip" lists or similar. You start filling it out with total lottery tickets after the first half dozen seats or so. It's like the back end of the AP top 25. No, Texas wasn't good last year, but someone's gotta be #25. There just aren't that many competitive senate races in a given cycle.

Thillis is in pretty deep shit, I've been convinced of that for a while. I think NC delivers big for Democrats this year. GOP cannot win that state with huge black turnout when their margin among educated whites has evaporated. Just doesn't add up.

I don't think Ds get over the hump in IA. Really need Maine, but deespite okay polling, you could say I'm "deeply concerned" Collins-style about Maine. Incumbents often find ways to win close races like that.

I'm starting to think Ds only net two seats and the GOP keeps the Senate, which is a fucking disaster. ME, IA, and MT are all close enough that you'd think it's hard for the GOP to split all three, but they're all demographically lilly white with GOP incumbents.

I think you meant to say sweep?
 

i still think it’s unlikely the GOP sweeps all 3 when the democrats have at worst a 50/50 shot in Maine and 40/60 shots in Iowa / Montana. Those are the worst I’d put the odds at, but the odds can still get better.

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