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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Chuckie Finster
Chuckie Finster

It might be petty, it’s certainly not healthy, but I want to destroy this man. Not just politically, but I want him curled up in the fetal position on his bathroom floor wondering where his life went

hornmpa96
hornmpa96

Until 2016, I was a lifelong Republican. In 2016, I couldn’t vote for either Trump or Clinton and so I threw away my vote on Gary Johnson. All of my concerns about a Trump Presidency have been realize

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13707

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Posted

I believe that McSally made the request more than once and later called it a joke. Even if it was shallowly meant to be a joke, there is obviously a hint of truth and desperation from McSally. She can’t sit there and admit that she and her message are looking to be rejected by Arizonans for the second time in 2 years, instead it’s better to say that she’s not getting enough financial support.

just like aggies never lose (they run out of time), the same is true for political egos. They won’t admit to being rejected by the voters but instead they couldn’t get in front of enough voters to win them over.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, thepop said:

CO doesn’t get a lot of senate polls but this one is in line with what we thought.

 

 

It really has no business being competitive. Gardner is a terrible fit for Colorado.  The guy has tried to pass marijuana laws at the national level, but republicans always shut him down. He’s worthless. Might as well have a Democrat there.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49325

Posted
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9 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Alaska Senate Poll by Public Policy Polling has Independent Al Gross tied at 43-43


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ir0a6eAHT04YSudrwp2AT-SC71wvmCqe/view

Isn’t that a huge jump? Someone mentioned him and his awesome story awhile back and I looked him up and he was getting crushed by like 15. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13707

Posted
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Yea his name recognition was and still is relatively low.  Was down 13 mid July

The Ind/Dem candidate is an Ortho surgeon/commercial fisherman. Odd combo. Born in Alaska. Current senator was born in Ohio, has lived in AK for ~20 years but has spent a great deal of that time in DC. It would seem like AK voters would love the first guy when they hear his story.

Sullivan barely won his only other senate election by 6K votes or 2% in 2014 which was a heavy Red victory across the country. As comparison, Cornyn won that year by 40%. AK isn't spoken about much in flipping seats but this seems doable if Gross has some money behind him.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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yoladu

yoladu 4187

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 8/23/2020 at 8:34 AM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Chaser:

 

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (as well as, the look to be successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above (assuming Biden wins)?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

Edited by yoladu
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49325

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, yoladu said:

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (and successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

Is flipping 4 (and losing AL) for a net gain of 3 get to 50 with a VP tiebreaker, or just to 49?

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49325

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, yoladu said:

net gain 3 for 50D - 50R

net gain 4 for 51D - 49R

So. Theoretically we only need the 3. The 60 super majority seems about as likely at this point as going a full day without Brisket making all of us want to drink bleach, so yeah, I won't even ponder that concept. 

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Gap03

Gap03 3374

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, yoladu said:

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (as well as, the look to be successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above (assuming Biden wins)?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

The polls would suggest that, among the remaining races, the best odds of a D win are:

  1. Maine - Gideon is pretty consistently polling at least +4, but the polls in ME aren't the highest quality + Collins always seems to pull things out.  I would love for her to go down.
  2. Iowa - Greenfield has been polling at +2-3 recently, but the most recent high quality poll (Monmouth) had Ernst +1 at the start of the month.
  3. Alaska - Not much data here, but Gross (D) is definitely trending.
  4. Georgia - The polls have Ossof having a shot, but he'll have to overcome GA's voter suppression machine.  Not a great chance, in my opinion.
  5. Montana - Not sure what has happened here, but Bullock's momentum has stalled, and Daines has been up consistently in recent polls.
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, yoladu said:

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (as well as, the look to be successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above (assuming Biden wins)?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

Maine is by far most likely.

collins is getting hit hard by dem advertisements and dem money from all over the country. Gideon is generally leading in the polling there, but you can’t count collins out yet.

iowa is the next best chance. Ernst is seen by most people as a bimbo, but she’s from a red state who always re-elects that kook Chuck Grassley so I wouldn’t get your hopes up. It is expected to be close tho.

Montana looked good for a few weeks, but polling is generally looking good for the R incumbent Steve Daines. Getting about 15-20% of Montana’s voters to split their tickets to bullock / Trump is a huge ask.

the Georgia’s are both likely gone. Similar to the Texas seat.

 

Alaska is a wild card of sorts. Nobody knows what to expect, but I hope gross can narrrow the race at least.

my opinion is that the worst the Dems can do is 49 seats. I’m hoping they get to 50 because it would give us a narrow majority with a Biden win or if Trump steals the election, at least he has no leeway to maneuver in the senate.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13707

Posted
Posted

The small (population) states with relatively close races are such wildcards given that a few thousand votes can swing the race. and there are few polls. The one good thing is that some of the small states seem to finish counting votes about 15 minutes after the polls close. The state election officials are home that night by 10.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49325

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

The polls would suggest that, among the remaining races, the best odds of a D win are:

  1. Maine - Gideon is pretty consistently polling at least +4, but the polls in ME aren't the highest quality + Collins always seems to pull things out.  I would love for her to go down.
  2. Iowa - Greenfield has been polling at +2-3 recently, but the most recent high quality poll (Monmouth) had Ernst +1 at the start of the month.
  3. Alaska - Not much data here, but Gross (D) is definitely trending.
  4. Georgia - The polls have Ossof having a shot, but he'll have to overcome GA's voter suppression machine.  Not a great chance, in my opinion.
  5. Montana - Not sure what has happened here, but Bullock's momentum has stalled, and Daines has been up consistently in recent polls.

Gross is an Independent. 

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Jive Turkey

Jive Turkey 12930

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Montana looked good for a few weeks, but polling is generally looking good for the R incumbent Steve Daines. Getting about 15-20% of Montana’s voters to split their tickets to bullock / Trump is a huge ask.

well, if any state is up to that task, it's Montana.  they like Bullock, and have no problem splitting tickets. 

we spent a few weeks in Montana this summer to escape Texas COVID.  just a fascinating place.  they are spending money up there on this race.  lots of ads.  this might be the Senate race i'm most intrigued by.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26773

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Ind/Dem candidate is an Ortho surgeon/commercial fisherman. Odd combo. Born in Alaska. Current senator was born in Ohio, has lived in AK for ~20 years but has spent a great deal of that time in DC. It would seem like AK voters would love the first guy when they hear his story.

Sullivan barely won his only other senate election by 6K votes or 2% in 2014 which was a heavy Red victory across the country. As comparison, Cornyn won that year by 40%. AK isn't spoken about much in flipping seats but this seems doable if Gross has some money behind him.

fuck yeah

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted

I’m predicting bama flips to the dark side, Arizona, Colorado, NC, Maine, Iowa, Alaska and Montana flip to the good guys, and Gax2, Tx, Lady G, and Moscow Mitch all hang on for narrow and in the case of Georgia stolen victories.
 

Biden wins Texas but JC hangs on for a narrow 2-4 point victory. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23974

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8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Biden wins Texas but JC hangs on for a narrow 2-4 point victory. 

Goddamn that would be amazing, but I don't share your enthusiasm. If you feel strongly, you can get paid roughly 4-1 on your money at predict it:
image.png.b583d8db56abc1ca569e45f333774e23.png

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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16 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Goddamn that would be amazing, but I don't share your enthusiasm. If you feel strongly, you can get paid roughly 4-1 on your money at predict it:
image.png.b583d8db56abc1ca569e45f333774e23.png

I already made a $500 bet with Anastasis with similar odds. That’s about my limit on any particular bet. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13707

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Goddamn that would be amazing, but I don't share your enthusiasm. If you feel strongly, you can get paid roughly 4-1 on your money at predict it:
image.png.b583d8db56abc1ca569e45f333774e23.png

I'm working on what I think are more sure bets on PI but I might take a few flyers like this one. I wonder if they have a "parlay" bet on Biden and Cornyn winning Texas. 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1773

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1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

The polls would suggest that, among the remaining races, the best odds of a D win are:

  1. Maine - Gideon is pretty consistently polling at least +4, but the polls in ME aren't the highest quality + Collins always seems to pull things out.  I would love for her to go down.
  2. Iowa - Greenfield has been polling at +2-3 recently, but the most recent high quality poll (Monmouth) had Ernst +1 at the start of the month.
  3. Alaska - Not much data here, but Gross (D) is definitely trending.
  4. Georgia - The polls have Ossof having a shot, but he'll have to overcome GA's voter suppression machine.  Not a great chance, in my opinion.
  5. Montana - Not sure what has happened here, but Bullock's momentum has stalled, and Daines has been up consistently in recent polls.

I'd put Montana and South Carolina in front of either of the Georgia seats. Bullock is as good of a candidate as Montana has, and Leningrad Lindsey hasn't had to run a legitimate campaign in my lifetime.

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Gap03

Gap03 3374

Posted
Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I don't understand any list that doesn't have McConnell at 2, much less not listed in the top 3. 

Agree.  Plus I'd like Gym Jordan, Louie Gohmert and Matt Gaetz to fall into a wood shredder, given they're not going to lose in their respective districts.

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