2020 Senate Elections

[HenryJames 65890]

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

I was coming here with the same thing. 

In today's news of the tone deaf and clueless Martha McSallies out there with a real winner. 

 

[Brisketexan 104628]

 

Alternative story: McSally provides an extra much-needed meal in these tough times for all her supporters by dropping out of the race.

[Voldemort86 2259]

26 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

What I like is her delusion that if she “JUST HAD MORE MONEY” then she would catch up and beat Kelly. 
 

I think she’s already fucked. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

Chaser:

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Chaser:

 

GOP should probably give up on mcsally, Gardner, and James at this point.  They will not come back and win.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

I believe that McSally made the request more than once and later called it a joke. Even if it was shallowly meant to be a joke, there is obviously a hint of truth and desperation from McSally. She can’t sit there and admit that she and her message are looking to be rejected by Arizonans for the second time in 2 years, instead it’s better to say that she’s not getting enough financial support.

just like aggies never lose (they run out of time), the same is true for political egos. They won’t admit to being rejected by the voters but instead they couldn’t get in front of enough voters to win them over.  

[tx 3 putt 76401]

Just plain old money grubbing. The RNC and Trump have plenty of money to give out. 

[thepop 4409]

CO doesn’t get a lot of senate polls but this one is in line with what we thought.

 

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by thepop

[Voldemort86 2259]

51 minutes ago, thepop said:

CO doesn’t get a lot of senate polls but this one is in line with what we thought.

 

 

It really has no business being competitive. Gardner is a terrible fit for Colorado.  The guy has tried to pass marijuana laws at the national level, but republicans always shut him down. He’s worthless. Might as well have a Democrat there.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Covington Catholic bro joins McConnell’s campaign

https://www.wymt.com/2020/08/28/nick-sandmann-joins-senate-majority-leader-mitch-mcconnells-campaign-team/

[Zonahorn 8079]

On 8/21/2020 at 8:09 PM, HenryJames said:

 

God, I hate her. I can't wait to vote against her

[Gatorubet 30115]

 

Pay-For-Streaming-Sex-with-a-Donkey would help her chances more

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[Hank Kingsley 20708]

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Alaska Senate Poll by Public Policy Polling has Independent Al Gross tied at 43-43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ir0a6eAHT04YSudrwp2AT-SC71wvmCqe/view

[Biff Tannen 45499]

8 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I don’t get it. 

[ultimaton 2966]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I don’t get it. 

Misspelled Worcester 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

1 minute ago, ultimaton said:

Misspelled Worcester 

[Biff Tannen 45499]

4 minutes ago, ultimaton said:

Misspelled Worcester 

Oh lulz

[SydneyCarton 47884]

9 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Alaska Senate Poll by Public Policy Polling has Independent Al Gross tied at 43-43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ir0a6eAHT04YSudrwp2AT-SC71wvmCqe/view

Isn’t that a huge jump? Someone mentioned him and his awesome story awhile back and I looked him up and he was getting crushed by like 15. 

[VirginiaLonghorn 4750]

9 hours ago, ultimaton said:

Misspelled Worcester 

Which is worse... misspelling or pronouncing it “Wuss-tuh?”

🤔

[StassneyHorn 6540]

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Isn’t that a huge jump? Someone mentioned him and his awesome story awhile back and I looked him up and he was getting crushed by like 15. 

Yea his name recognition was and still is relatively low.  Was down 13 mid July

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

48 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Yea his name recognition was and still is relatively low.  Was down 13 mid July

The Ind/Dem candidate is an Ortho surgeon/commercial fisherman. Odd combo. Born in Alaska. Current senator was born in Ohio, has lived in AK for ~20 years but has spent a great deal of that time in DC. It would seem like AK voters would love the first guy when they hear his story.

Sullivan barely won his only other senate election by 6K votes or 2% in 2014 which was a heavy Red victory across the country. As comparison, Cornyn won that year by 40%. AK isn't spoken about much in flipping seats but this seems doable if Gross has some money behind him.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[kevwun 15653]

Lots of folks grow up fishing there and he also probably put himself through medical school fishing over the summers.

[yoladu 4067]

On 8/23/2020 at 8:34 AM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Chaser:

 

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (as well as, the look to be successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above (assuming Biden wins)?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

Edited September 1, 2020 by yoladu

[SydneyCarton 47884]

2 minutes ago, yoladu said:

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (and successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

Is flipping 4 (and losing AL) for a net gain of 3 get to 50 with a VP tiebreaker, or just to 49?

[yoladu 4067]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Is flipping 4 (and losing AL) for a net gain of 3 get to 50 with a VP tiebreaker, or just to 49?

net gain 3 for 50D - 50R

net gain 4 for 51D - 49R

[SydneyCarton 47884]

1 minute ago, yoladu said:

net gain 3 for 50D - 50R

net gain 4 for 51D - 49R

So. Theoretically we only need the 3. The 60 super majority seems about as likely at this point as going a full day without Brisket making all of us want to drink bleach, so yeah, I won't even ponder that concept. 

[yoladu 4067]

Biden win - CO (D), AZ (D), NC (D), need one more flipped D, assuming Alabama (R) : 50/50

Trump win - CO (D), AZ (D), NC (D), need two more flipped D, assuming Alabama (R) : 51/49

[Gap03 3287]

12 minutes ago, yoladu said:

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (as well as, the look to be successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above (assuming Biden wins)?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

The polls would suggest that, among the remaining races, the best odds of a D win are:

1. Maine - Gideon is pretty consistently polling at least +4, but the polls in ME aren't the highest quality + Collins always seems to pull things out.  I would love for her to go down.
2. Iowa - Greenfield has been polling at +2-3 recently, but the most recent high quality poll (Monmouth) had Ernst +1 at the start of the month.
3. Alaska - Not much data here, but Gross (D) is definitely trending.
4. Georgia - The polls have Ossof having a shot, but he'll have to overcome GA's voter suppression machine.  Not a great chance, in my opinion.
5. Montana - Not sure what has happened here, but Bullock's momentum has stalled, and Daines has been up consistently in recent polls.

[Voldemort86 2259]

24 minutes ago, yoladu said:

So, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina looking really good for Dems (as well as, the look to be successfully defending Michigan).

Will lose Alabama to the Republican.

So Dems need to flip one more Senate seat to win back the Senate assuming the results above (assuming Biden wins)?

What is currently looking to be the best shot? Maine? Iowa? Montana? GA? Alaska?!!! Rank in order of likeliness?

Maine is by far most likely.

collins is getting hit hard by dem advertisements and dem money from all over the country. Gideon is generally leading in the polling there, but you can’t count collins out yet.

iowa is the next best chance. Ernst is seen by most people as a bimbo, but she’s from a red state who always re-elects that kook Chuck Grassley so I wouldn’t get your hopes up. It is expected to be close tho.

Montana looked good for a few weeks, but polling is generally looking good for the R incumbent Steve Daines. Getting about 15-20% of Montana’s voters to split their tickets to bullock / Trump is a huge ask.

the Georgia’s are both likely gone. Similar to the Texas seat.

 

Alaska is a wild card of sorts. Nobody knows what to expect, but I hope gross can narrrow the race at least.

my opinion is that the worst the Dems can do is 49 seats. I’m hoping they get to 50 because it would give us a narrow majority with a Biden win or if Trump steals the election, at least he has no leeway to maneuver in the senate.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Voldemort86

[406W30th 1111]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

The small (population) states with relatively close races are such wildcards given that a few thousand votes can swing the race. and there are few polls. The one good thing is that some of the small states seem to finish counting votes about 15 minutes after the polls close. The state election officials are home that night by 10.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

34 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

The polls would suggest that, among the remaining races, the best odds of a D win are:

1. Maine - Gideon is pretty consistently polling at least +4, but the polls in ME aren't the highest quality + Collins always seems to pull things out.  I would love for her to go down.
2. Iowa - Greenfield has been polling at +2-3 recently, but the most recent high quality poll (Monmouth) had Ernst +1 at the start of the month.
3. Alaska - Not much data here, but Gross (D) is definitely trending.
4. Georgia - The polls have Ossof having a shot, but he'll have to overcome GA's voter suppression machine.  Not a great chance, in my opinion.
5. Montana - Not sure what has happened here, but Bullock's momentum has stalled, and Daines has been up consistently in recent polls.

Gross is an Independent. 

[Jive Turkey 12568]

38 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Montana looked good for a few weeks, but polling is generally looking good for the R incumbent Steve Daines. Getting about 15-20% of Montana’s voters to split their tickets to bullock / Trump is a huge ask.

well, if any state is up to that task, it's Montana.  they like Bullock, and have no problem splitting tickets. 

we spent a few weeks in Montana this summer to escape Texas COVID.  just a fascinating place.  they are spending money up there on this race.  lots of ads.  this might be the Senate race i'm most intrigued by.

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Ind/Dem candidate is an Ortho surgeon/commercial fisherman. Odd combo. Born in Alaska. Current senator was born in Ohio, has lived in AK for ~20 years but has spent a great deal of that time in DC. It would seem like AK voters would love the first guy when they hear his story.

Sullivan barely won his only other senate election by 6K votes or 2% in 2014 which was a heavy Red victory across the country. As comparison, Cornyn won that year by 40%. AK isn't spoken about much in flipping seats but this seems doable if Gross has some money behind him.

fuck yeah

[JimmyJames 12271]

I’m predicting bama flips to the dark side, Arizona, Colorado, NC, Maine, Iowa, Alaska and Montana flip to the good guys, and Gax2, Tx, Lady G, and Moscow Mitch all hang on for narrow and in the case of Georgia stolen victories.
 

Biden wins Texas but JC hangs on for a narrow 2-4 point victory. 

[Blotto 23434]

8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Biden wins Texas but JC hangs on for a narrow 2-4 point victory. 

Goddamn that would be amazing, but I don't share your enthusiasm. If you feel strongly, you can get paid roughly 4-1 on your money at predict it:

[JimmyJames 12271]

16 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Goddamn that would be amazing, but I don't share your enthusiasm. If you feel strongly, you can get paid roughly 4-1 on your money at predict it:

I already made a $500 bet with Anastasis with similar odds. That’s about my limit on any particular bet. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

25 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Goddamn that would be amazing, but I don't share your enthusiasm. If you feel strongly, you can get paid roughly 4-1 on your money at predict it:

I'm working on what I think are more sure bets on PI but I might take a few flyers like this one. I wonder if they have a "parlay" bet on Biden and Cornyn winning Texas. 

[Texas73 420]

19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I wonder if they have a "parlay" bet on Biden and Cornyn winning Texas. 

I'm wondering how much you want to lose. I'd be thrilled but I don't see it.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

6 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

I'm wondering how much you want to lose. I'd be thrilled but I don't see it.

Agree but betting long shots isn't about winning 100% of them.  But rather hoping the odds reflect a longer shot than it is.

[GopherRock 1765]

1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

The polls would suggest that, among the remaining races, the best odds of a D win are:

1. Maine - Gideon is pretty consistently polling at least +4, but the polls in ME aren't the highest quality + Collins always seems to pull things out.  I would love for her to go down.
2. Iowa - Greenfield has been polling at +2-3 recently, but the most recent high quality poll (Monmouth) had Ernst +1 at the start of the month.
3. Alaska - Not much data here, but Gross (D) is definitely trending.
4. Georgia - The polls have Ossof having a shot, but he'll have to overcome GA's voter suppression machine.  Not a great chance, in my opinion.
5. Montana - Not sure what has happened here, but Bullock's momentum has stalled, and Daines has been up consistently in recent polls.

I'd put Montana and South Carolina in front of either of the Georgia seats. Bullock is as good of a candidate as Montana has, and Leningrad Lindsey hasn't had to run a legitimate campaign in my lifetime.

[Jive Turkey 12568]

If I had to rank who I want to lose the most in November, I’d go:

1. Trump 

2.  Collins

3. Lindsay 

 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

8 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

If I had to rank who I want to lose the most in November, I’d go:

1. Trump 

2.  Collins

3. Lindsay 

 

I don't understand any list that doesn't have McConnell at 2, much less not listed in the top 3. 

[Gap03 3287]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I don't understand any list that doesn't have McConnell at 2, much less not listed in the top 3. 

Agree.  Plus I'd like Gym Jordan, Louie Gohmert and Matt Gaetz to fall into a wood shredder, given they're not going to lose in their respective districts.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I don't understand any list that doesn't have McConnell at 2, much less not listed in the top 3. 

Trump and McConnell are 1a and 1b in my book.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Trump and McConnell are 1a and 1b in my book.

Agreed. @Jive Turkey should be forced to return here and defend his absurd opinions with unassailable logic and facts. Maybe he's just persecuting Graham because he fucking hates skin tags and moles.