2020 Senate Elections

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

5 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It would still be a better use of the money than giving it to any career politician. 

Oh agreed. No doubt. Just saying that the scope of the resources needed is staggering and 2 billion isn’t a big number relative to the opportunity/problem. 
 

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

I still wonder about the blackmale angle as well.

And the irony is that Graham probably wouldn't be having his election problems if it were somebody else in office.  Guy won by almost 17% in his last election.  That's a massive turnaround.

Absolutely. trump is the worst thing that happened to a ton of people politically. 

[Bookman 4611]

Somewhere along the way Republicans decided they didn't want the white, college-educated vote.

[tx 3 putt 76408]

29 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Somewhere along the way Republicans decided they didn't want the white, college-educated vote.

 

it's a shrinking voting base. 

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

36 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Somewhere along the way Republicans decided they didn't want the white, college-educated vote.

Yeah. Right after Mitt Romney lost. Romney/Ryan was the ticket that was trying to pile up those votes. They lost and pivoted to a different direction. 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

Don't give to Biden, dude entered September with $466 million in the bank, $141 million more than Trump.

Put it in the Senate races that are close.

Edited September 21, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[thepop 4409]

Yup at this point best bet is to continue giving to https://secure.actblue.com/donate/getmitch or specific senate candidates 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

Would Trump's, and by proxy the GOP's, attitude towards them during their recent encounters with natural disasters influence that?

I might imagine so. But I haven’t seen any actual polling on it. And as I understand it, the politics is so focused on the statehood issue, I’m not sure that they have any real conceptualization of the partisan background of Trump’s failures.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bama Chick 28596]

How does one go about getting a job with a campaign to dig up old incriminating dirt on other candidates?

I do that shit for free just fucking about on the internet!

[henrygandorf 29179]

like i needed a fucking video to tell me that lindsey graham is part of the problem. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Don't give to Biden, dude entered September with $466 million in the bank, $141 million more than Trump.

Put it in the Senate races that are close.

Don’t forget about Bloomberg’s $100 million Florida blitz.

biden doesn’t have to spend money there anymore probably.

[Bruh Man 3160]

3 hours ago, thepop said:

Yup at this point best bet is to continue giving to https://secure.actblue.com/donate/getmitch or specific senate candidates 

They need to cut that list short.

South Carolina
Georgia
Montana
North Carolina
Maine
Iowa

....are the only states people should be donating to. McGrath has squandered over 50M already running a terrible campaign. She probably has another 50M coming her way based off the Moscow Mitch raging I'm seeing on Twitter. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

9 hours ago, Bookman said:

Somewhere along the way Republicans decided they didn't want the white, college-educated vote.

They went along with Trump's bullying of any dissenters. Remember in the early days of his presidency when many thought calming voices like Ryan could keep everything reasonable?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

5 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

They need to cut that list short.

South Carolina
Georgia
Montana
North Carolina
Maine
Iowa

....are the only states people should be donating to. McGrath has squandered over 50M already running a terrible campaign. She probably has another 50M coming her way based off the Moscow Mitch raging I'm seeing on Twitter. 

Before giving up on some Senate races, Dems (& the GOP) need polling info on how RBG's death has impacted the races and the idea that McConnell and Trump are moving forward with a nominee. If there is a swing of a few points (I have no idea), then more states are in play. 

I guess that Peters and Hickenlooper are on there because even if there is a late shift to the right, it's critical for the Dems that those seats flip blue.

[lemonlime 5503]

They need to cut that list short.
South Carolina
Georgia
Montana
North Carolina
Maine
Iowa
....are the only states people should be donating to. McGrath has squandered over 50M already running a terrible campaign. She probably has another 50M coming her way based off the Moscow Mitch raging I'm seeing on Twitter. 

Why should they cut back anywhere, when they’ve taken in a huge haul over the weekend? There’s plenty of money in the six races you mention. The dems should fight everywhere. At the very least, they’re forcing the GOP to blow money in places like Kansas and Mississippi.

[GopherRock 1765]

40 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Before giving up on some Senate races, Dems (& the GOP) need polling info on how RBG's death has impacted the races and the idea that McConnell and Trump are moving forward with a nominee. If there is a swing of a few points (I have no idea), then more states are in play. 

I guess that Peters and Hickenlooper are on there because even if there is a late shift to the right, it's critical for the Dems that those seats flip blue.

Add Alaska to that list. A dollar literally goes a lot further in Alaska than in Iowa. 

That said, if the field expands and the GOP suddenly has to play even more defense, where does it go? The next tier of races is a hard lift even with Biden at the top of the ticket (Kansas, Mississippi, Bama, Georgia, Texas, and Kentucky), and I'm sick of counting on the former Confederacy to turn blue.

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

44 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Add Alaska to that list. A dollar literally goes a lot further in Alaska than in Iowa. 

That said, if the field expands and the GOP suddenly has to play even more defense, where does it go? The next tier of races is a hard lift even with Biden at the top of the ticket (Kansas, Mississippi, Bama, Georgia, Texas, and Kentucky), and I'm sick of counting on the former Confederacy to turn blue.

Yeah, I think the Dems have more money than they need. What’s the marginal efficacy of running the 3rd commercial of the break as opposed to the second. Maine seemed already at saturation (both sides) when I was up there and that was late July  I’d imagine the story is similar everywhere else it’s contested. . 

[thepop 4409]

6 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

They need to cut that list short.

South Carolina
Georgia
Montana
North Carolina
Maine
Iowa

....are the only states people should be donating to. McGrath has squandered over 50M already running a terrible campaign. She probably has another 50M coming her way based off the Moscow Mitch raging I'm seeing on Twitter. 

McGrath isn't even on the list. And while i agree you can cut the list short a little bit, a lot of candidates could use the help.

Hickenlooper will win but his campaign sucks and they are short of money. Espy and Hegar are also in single digits and they don't have much money. Alaska and Kansas are also winnable. The only person I would cut from the list is Doug Jones (unfortunately). Maybe Peters too, not sure about his finances.

 

[thepop 4409]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, I think the Dems have more money than they need. What’s the marginal efficacy of running the 3rd commercial of the break as opposed to the second. Maine seemed already at saturation (both sides) when I was up there and that was late July  I’d imagine the story is similar everywhere else it’s contested. . 

 

 

[Jive Turkey 12568]

This guy needs to get got. I’m donating to Harrison today. 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

34 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This guy needs to get got. I’m donating to Harrison today. 

 

What a little pussy.

[Gap03 3287]

41 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This guy needs to get got. I’m donating to Harrison today. 

 

MeidasTouch with the smackdown ...

 

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

1 hour ago, thepop said:

 

 

Maybe. That seems ambitious but maybe so. 

[Pasken 1309]

Has anyone seen any MJ Hager yard signs? Seem few and far between. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

4 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Has anyone seen any MJ Hager yard signs? Seem few and far between. 

several in my neighborhood in Wilco. They seem to be sprouting a few more every day. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 hour ago, thepop said:

McGrath isn't even on the list. And while i agree you can cut the list short a little bit, a lot of candidates could use the help.

Hickenlooper will win but his campaign sucks and they are short of money. Espy and Hegar are also in single digits and they don't have much money. Alaska and Kansas are also winnable. The only person I would cut from the list is Doug Jones (unfortunately). Maybe Peters too, not sure about his finances.

 

Gary Peters in Michigan is also struggling.  Yes:  Stop giving McGrath money.  But otherwise, errbody.

[Gap03 3287]

Don't know anything about this pollster, but fascinating shift in the polls in Mississippi - from R-+26 in March to R+1 in August.  I WANT to believe - giving that old racist clown the boot would be spectacular.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

3 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Don't know anything about this pollster, but fascinating shift in the polls in Mississippi - from R-+26 in March to R+1 in August.  I WANT to believe - giving that old racist clown the boot would be spectacular.

 

super progressive AL and MS are going to end up with my D senators than the rest of the confederacy combined. va doesn't count

[thepop 4409]

6 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Don't know anything about this pollster, but fascinating shift in the polls in Mississippi - from R-+26 in March to R+1 in August.  I WANT to believe - giving that old racist clown the boot would be spectacular.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Between the logistics and these close races, I think we won't see a SCOTUS confirmation vote prior to the election. The real question is how much heat will the senators face if the confirmation hearings start with a plan to confirm after the election.

[thepop 4409]

(this is why we don't cut the list)

[thepop 4409]

Has anyone actually seen a Hegar ad? Or received a mailer? I wish her campaign didn't suck.

I have seen her yard signs though.

[Brisketexan 104629]

2 minutes ago, thepop said:

Has anyone actually seen a Hegar ad? Or received a mailer? I wish her campaign didn't suck.

I have seen her yard signs though.

She's running the same "I was wounded and kicked ass shooting at the enemy from the skid of a chopper" ad that all of us in Centex saw last election (but it's new to the rest of Texas).  She needs something more substantive.

She needs to tell the story about how she went to DC to fight for, and got, change (changed military policy).  And she needs to end it with "Texas deserves a senator who fights like a real Texan, not a senator who just obeys orders and dresses like a fake Texan...."

[gmr548 16517]

(this is why we don't cut the list)

42 percent is not a particularly good number for a challenger at this point. That said, Cornyn's been hovering in the mid 40s, which is atrocious for an incumbent. He continues to leave the door open and isn't solidifying new voters.

Some of these polls are from democratic groups so it's good to tap the brakes a bit. I think he'll ultimately run a few points better than Trump on the back of suburban whites, and I haven't seen anything thay really challenges that assessment, but damn we could use a couple quality polls here.

[The Dog 43808]

Tyson is a GOP pollster

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

9 minutes ago, thepop said:

(this is why we don't cut the list)

thanks for the info. Interesting poll numbers: https://consumerenergyalliance.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CEA-TEXAS-Track.pdf

I wondered if this was a Democrat leaning poll that favored the Dems. Not at all. Their poll gives decent approval ratings for Cruz and Abbott. Trump and Cornyn are bad. Cornyn has a ridiculous 29% unsure about approve/disapprove of him. People in Texas don't know who he is after 18 years in office. Cruz only had a 10% unsure. Abbott 6%.

Cornyn only has 53% of the "some what conservative" vote even though they have a high unsure of 16%. It's very possible the pollsters won't say that Cornyn is a republican.  

[gmr548 16517]

Tyson is a GOP pollster

I should've clarified that I was talking the race as a whole - I'd never heard of Tyson until now.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

I haven't seen Hegar ads except on Facebook. I've seen Cornyn on YouTube and regular TV.

Trump ads are clickbait headers and sidebars. The occasional ad on Facebook as well. 

I guess it's carpet bombing on the social media. 

[Wulaw Horn 18983]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

thanks for the info. Interesting poll numbers: https://consumerenergyalliance.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/CEA-TEXAS-Track.pdf

I wondered if this was a Democrat leaning poll that favored the Dems. Not at all. Their poll gives decent approval ratings for Cruz and Abbott. Trump and Cornyn are bad. Cornyn has a ridiculous 29% unsure about approve/disapprove of him. People in Texas don't know who he is after 18 years in office. Cruz only had a 10% unsure. Abbott 6%.

Cornyn only has 53% of the "some what conservative" vote even though they have a high unsure of 16%. It's very possible the pollsters won't say that Cornyn is a republican.  

Something odd in that and Mississippi. Way too low on the percentages like they didn’t push anyone or left something out. 

[atomheartbevo 89452]

46 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Don't know anything about this pollster, but fascinating shift in the polls in Mississippi - from R-+26 in March to R+1 in August.  I WANT to believe - giving that old racist clown the boot would be spectacular.

 

They didn't change the state flag in Mississippi for nothing this year.  They only did it because their polling told them they'd better do it and not go down some stupid fucking Lost Cause path.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

10 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

I haven't seen Hegar ads except on Facebook. I've seen Cornyn on YouTube and regular TV.

Trump ads are clickbait headers and sidebars. The occasional ad on Facebook as well. 

I guess it's carpet bombing on the social media. 

Yeah, a lot of Trump ads are being run by third parties to get you to their sites/questionnaires.  That's been a steady trend since he first jumped in.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I wondered if this was a Democrat leaning poll that favored the Dems. Not at all. Their poll gives decent approval ratings for Cruz and Abbott. Trump and Cornyn are bad. Cornyn has a ridiculous 29% unsure about approve/disapprove of him. People in Texas don't know who he is after 18 years in office. Cruz only had a 10% unsure. Abbott 6%.

Cornyn only has 53% of the "some what conservative" vote even though they have a high unsure of 16%. It's very possible the pollsters won't say that Cornyn is a republican.  

Cornyn is odd - he's spent way too much time in DC, and unlike Cruz, he hasn't done much to raise his profile - people may think Cruz is nutty/cucked by Trump/etc., but at least they know who he is.  Cornyn is the very definition of bland old white guy.  You could put him in a lineup with some of our state officials (Paxton, etc.), and I'm not sure that many Texans could pick him out.

[atomheartbevo 89452]

24 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Tyson is a GOP pollster

While I have no friends working for Tyson, and I make no assumptions about Tyson's numbers, I do have some who work for polling/data firms, and it's not unheard of for companies to tweak poll results to try and motivate the base and raise campaign donations.  I'm not saying they'd deliberately show a race being closer than it is, but....if there's money or votes in it...

[Bozo_Casanova 26286]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Cornyn is odd - he's spent way too much time in DC, and unlike Cruz, he hasn't done much to raise his profile - people may think Cruz is nutty/cucked by Trump/etc., but at least they know who he is.  Cornyn is the very definition of bland old white guy.  You could put him in a lineup with some of our state officials (Paxton, etc.), and I'm not sure that many Texans could pick him out.

The right wingers don't trust Cornyn. They think he's soft on Pizzagate, Obamagate, Burisma, the Q stuff, etc. He doesn't own the libs often enough. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Cornyn is odd - he's spent way too much time in DC, and unlike Cruz, he hasn't done much to raise his profile - people may think Cruz is nutty/cucked by Trump/etc., but at least they know who he is.  Cornyn is the very definition of bland old white guy.  You could put him in a lineup with some of our state officials (Paxton, etc.), and I'm not sure that many Texans could pick him out.

Cornyn has spent his time in DC toeing the party line.  I assume his voting record is 100% what McConnell has told him to do. You would think that he would want to drop out of politics at this point and earn some money as lobbyist. Maybe grab an ambassador role for the next GOP president. I still expect him to win but perhaps this will be his last go-round as he's 68.

[wildcat09 29261]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The right wingers don't trust Cornyn. They think he's soft on Pizzagate, Obamagate, Burisma, the Q stuff, etc. He doesn't own the libs often enough. 

Yeah, this. It’s very evident in the Facebook posts I see from some friends’ moms who all think he’s a liberal RINO. I’m not sure he’s ever said or done anything to generate that distrust, or if it’s just that he’s just never said or done anything to prove he’s bought in to that nonsense.

[thepop 4409]

Well, ordered a Hegar yard sign and signed up to volunteer. Time to get to work.

[thepop 4409]

 

[Hank Kingsley 20711]

 

[gmr548 16517]

 

The right is getting better at humor and I'm terrified