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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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It might be petty, it’s certainly not healthy, but I want to destroy this man. Not just politically, but I want him curled up in the fetal position on his bathroom floor wondering where his life went

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Until 2016, I was a lifelong Republican. In 2016, I couldn’t vote for either Trump or Clinton and so I threw away my vote on Gary Johnson. All of my concerns about a Trump Presidency have been realize

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Js1

Js1 85523

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Ouch babe.  The Dems just need to avoid nominating their version of Roy Moore (if there is one even that bad) and this looks like a surefire pickup.

She's at 41%

Trump is at 38%

She has lost A LOT of crossover support.  Badly. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

She signed her own death certificate the second she gave that bullshit speech on Kavanaugh.

Yeah I don’t think giving an hour long speech was such a good idea. Just brought more attention to the fact that she was the deciding vote and basically meant she owned whatever he did in the future since she was the deciding vote. If she was gonna support him she should have just said so and much earlier. 

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Js1

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3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Yeah I don’t think giving an hour long speech was such a good idea. Just brought more attention to the fact that she was the deciding vote and basically meant she owned whatever he did in the future since she was the deciding vote. If she was gonna support him she should have just said so and much earlier. 

 

 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27601

Posted
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More on this. 

In what is "the longest-running consistently-administered tracking survey in the Northeast," Collins dropped from a 58% approval a year ago, to 51% last fall, to 41% this spring. She also only gets a 46% approval rating among Republicans, and 31% from Democrats. In the words of the polling memo, "Approval of Senator Collins's job performance has declined dramatically since last fall, reaching a new low." She has't been underwater in this poll ever before (her disapproval is 42%).

Bob Domine, president of Critical Insights, says "If I had to speculate on a single factor underlying this slip in Collin's approval rating, it would be her pivotal vote in Brett Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court. Her approval was both strong and steady prior to her vote last fall, and it has continued to slip since then." The president* she took that vote for, Donald Trump, has a 58% disapproval in the state, with just 34% approving

Just in case you're wondering The Mustache of Righteousness is at 57% approval.

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Js1

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Failed 2018 Michigan GOP nominee John James is taking another shot in 2020 at Gary Peters.  

To note - he would be the "best" GOP recruit in 2020, yet he underperformed Trump by 340,000 votes in a state Trump won against an incumbent Democrat who barely even campaigned.  And Michigan a) went very blue in 2018 and b) expanded voting access for 2020. 

He's toast. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13521

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Does Collins' future opponent still on track to receive that multi-million dollar donation? I know there was some noise from her camp that they were going to fight it as some attempt to bribe her to vote a certain way but others seem to feel that it wasn't illegal.

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Js1

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28 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Does Collins' future opponent still on track to receive that multi-million dollar donation? I know there was some noise from her camp that they were going to fight it as some attempt to bribe her to vote a certain way but others seem to feel that it wasn't illegal.

Why would it be illegal? It was a grassroots donation to whomever her opponent is.  

Besides current Maine congresspersons Pingree and Golden both saying no thanks to a run (and Pingree's daughter), it looks like its Sara Gideon  (current Maine Speaker) or Troy Jackson (current Senate president) are in line for the nomination and the money bomb.  Overall, its like $4.4 million in funds.

Both excellent candidates; neither would announce until the state lege sessions is over in a few weeks. 

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

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17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why would it be illegal? It was a grassroots donation to whomever her opponent is.  

Besides current Maine congresspersons Pingree and Golden both saying no thanks to a run (and Pingree's daughter), it looks like its Sara Gideon  (current Maine Speaker) or Troy Jackson (current Senate president) are in line for the nomination and the money bomb.  Overall, its like $4.4 million in funds.

Both excellent candidates; neither would announce until the state lege sessions is over in a few weeks. 

You know an impressive amount about Maine politics.

 

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Js1

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1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

that's one pick up.

Honestly, it's just as easy as:

Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina - Alabama + Presidency = 50 + tiebreaker. 

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Js1

Js1 85523

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i haven't taken an active interest in a lot of these races, but how are things looking to replace the individual dem presidential candidates?

Bennett - Colorado - blue state
Booker - New Jersey - blue state
Gillibrand - New York - blue state
Harris - Colorado - blue state
Klobuchar - Minnesota - blue state
Sanders - Vermont - blue state
Warren - Massachusetts - blue state

I think we are okay. 

Colorado, California, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York - gubernatorial appointment that would serve until November 2022 (all 5 have Democrat governors)
Vermont and Massachusetts - interim appointment, special election within 3-6 months (both have Republican governors)

Edited by Js1
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 678

Posted
Posted
On 6/14/2019 at 2:37 PM, henrygandorf said:

i haven't taken an active interest in a lot of these races, but how are things looking to replace the individual dem presidential candidates?

They don't need to be replaced if they don't win the nomination, right?

If so, why the fuck are we still dealing with Ted Cruz?

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Js1

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The 2020 Races don't look as bad as before:

Alabama - Roy Moore or Tommy Tuberville give Democrats a chance

Alaska - sleeper

Arizona - Mark Kelly is the top tier recruit

Colorado - basically every single Democrat begins as a favorite

Georgia - Teresa Tomlinson is a great candidate

Iowa - meh

Kansas - Kobach is announcing he's in next week.  Kobach is a huge unpopular loser after losing to a Democrat for the governorship

Kentucky - if Democrats knock off Bevin in the off-year governor's race, Mitch will be sweating

Maine - Sara Gideon is a top tier recruit

Michigan - hold - GOP could only muster 2018 loser John James 

Minnesota - hold

Montana - less interesting since Bullock won't go for it

North Carolina - some really good candidates here and Tillis is extremely unpopular

New Hampshire - hold since Sununu opted out

Texas - god damnit Beto, but MJ might make it a race with her very compelling story

 

Democrats could lose 1 (Alabama) but pick up Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina (4) + Presidency (tie breaker) and take back the Senate.  Don't discount Montana, Texas, Georgia and Kansas as potential flips. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16603

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

The 2020 Races don't look as bad as before:

Alabama - Roy Moore or Tommy Tuberville give Democrats a chance

Alaska - sleeper

Arizona - Mark Kelly is the top tier recruit

Colorado - basically every single Democrat begins as a favorite

Georgia - Teresa Tomlinson is a great candidate

Iowa - meh

Kansas - Kobach is announcing he's in next week.  Kobach is a huge unpopular loser after losing to a Democrat for the governorship

Kentucky - if Democrats knock off Bevin in the off-year governor's race, Mitch will be sweating

Maine - Sara Gideon is a top tier recruit

Michigan - hold - GOP could only muster 2018 loser John James 

Minnesota - hold

Montana - less interesting since Bullock won't go for it

North Carolina - some really good candidates here and Tillis is extremely unpopular

New Hampshire - hold since Sununu opted out

Texas - god damnit Beto, but MJ might make it a race with her very compelling story

 

Democrats could lose 1 (Alabama) but pick up Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina (4) + Presidency (tie breaker) and take back the Senate.  Don't discount Montana, Texas, Georgia and Kansas as potential flips. 

Even with a relatively small net gain needed to retake the chamber, it will have to be a really successful election for Ds to retake the Senate. The states up for grabs are demographically and politically pretty varied, but mostly lean R at least slightly. NC is also a believe it when I see it scenario for me - NC GOP is too dirty. They'd rig an election before accepting defeat. 

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 678

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

The 2020 Races don't look as bad as before:

Alabama - Roy Moore or Tommy Tuberville give Democrats a chance - Tubs wins by 15+, or I vastly underestimate the power of college sports rivalries.

Alaska - sleeper - Agreed. The force is strong with the Indie/Dem coalition up North.

Iowa - meh - Honestly, Iowa is probably #3 or #4 on the list of flippability.

Kansas - Kobach is announcing he's in next week.  Kobach is a huge unpopular loser after losing to a Democrat for the governorship - Garbage candidate, but this is the Senate, where the Supreme Court gets the rank and file Rs to fall in line.

Michigan - hold - GOP could only muster 2018 loser John James - Not to mention Peters last won election in 2014, a crap year for Dems.

 

Democrats could lose 1 (Alabama) but pick up Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina (4) + Presidency (tie breaker) and take back the Senate.  Don't discount Montana, Texas, Georgia and Kansas as potential flips. 

1234

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Posted

There are more Alabama fans than Auburn fans in this state - probably 60-40.

And Alabama fans HATE Tuberville. There’s a ton of history there and the hatred of AU/Tuberville is probably the one thing that could outweigh the R next to his name.

Some of those people might not be able to vote for a Democrat so they would just not vote in that race.

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Js1

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9 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

1234

Iowa pisses me off.  I can't stand that entire state for some reason.   I do not think they will throw out Ernst. 

But yes, Alaska is a sleeper.  100%.  Republican Governor only won with 51% of the vote and the U.S. Rep with 53%.  A good candidate can win this race. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Bold strategy Cotton.  "Never before has a teenage girl at a shopping mall been so woefully disgusted by the untoward advancements of a 70 year old man.  So for that reason, I've decided to buy all my clothes at Gadsden Mall's Aeropostale."  

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Js1

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That was a big time recruit.  Chuck Schumer had options galore in Maine and definitely got the right one.  Gideon needs to pummel Collins from the left on Kavanaugh/Roe v Wade.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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I hate to say it, but I’m still not optimistic about the senate. I think the best we could hope for is to gain 1 seat or 2 and be in position to take the senate back in 2022. It’s crazy how the McConnell led senate doesn’t do anything and gets away with it. The senate is worthless right now. They don’t do anything of value to the American people.

Edited by Voldemort86
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Js1

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I hate to say it, but I’m still not optimistic about the senate. I think the best we could hope for is to gain 1 seat or 2 and be in position to take the senate back in 2022. It’s crazy how the McConnell led senate doesn’t do anything and gets away with it. The senate is worthless right now. They don’t do anything of value to the American people.

Tillis is extremely unpopular - try around 20-25% approval
McSally is already a loser and they got a fucking astronaut to run against her
Collins is barely clearing 41% approval (lowest its ever been) and they just got their Speaker of the House to run against her
Gardner is toast - he got lucky in a red year and Colorado has gotten a lot bluer since 2014
LOL Roy Moore might be the nominee again against Doug Jones

No other current Democrat incumbent besides Jones is in danger. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Tillis is extremely unpopular - try around 20-25% approval
McSally is already a loser and they got a fucking astronaut to run against her
Collins is barely clearing 41% approval (lowest its ever been) and they just got their Speaker of the House to run against her
Gardner is toast - he got lucky in a red year and Colorado has gotten a lot bluer since 2014
LOL Roy Moore might be the nominee again against Doug Jones

No other current Democrat incumbent besides Jones is in danger. 

How the fuck did he end up with 20% approval.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

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I think Tillis comes by unpopularity naturally.

Honestly, North Carolina really should be a close state.  The GOP will cheat.  But that seat was held by a Democrat before Tillis took it in 2014.  It is winnable.

I'm really torn as between MJ and Royce West.  I like MJ, and think she'd be a good candidate.  But West would also be a good candidate.  And once in office, he would know how to build a party machinery (for better and worse).

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Js1

Js1 85523

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think Tillis comes by unpopularity naturally.

Honestly, North Carolina really should be a close state.  The GOP will cheat.  But that seat was held by a Democrat before Tillis took it in 2014.  It is winnable.

I'm really torn as between MJ and Royce West.  I like MJ, and think she'd be a good candidate.  But West would also be a good candidate.  And once in office, he would know how to build a party machinery (for better and worse).

Tillis won that state in 2014 by 45,000 (1.56%).  He reminds me a lot of Gardner - close wins in purple states in a red year.

2020 will not be a red year.

The GOP will try to cheat.  The State Board of Elections is run a Cooper appointee.  So I have some hope. 

Edited by Js1
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Tillis is extremely unpopular - try around 20-25% approval
McSally is already a loser and they got a fucking astronaut to run against her
Collins is barely clearing 41% approval (lowest its ever been) and they just got their Speaker of the House to run against her
Gardner is toast - he got lucky in a red year and Colorado has gotten a lot bluer since 2014
LOL Roy Moore might be the nominee again against Doug Jones

No other current Democrat incumbent besides Jones is in danger. 

North Carolina republicans are the nastiest republicans in the country. Actually no, Wisconsin republicans are the worst. Their maps are drawn to where win almost all of the seats with less than %50 of the votes.

NC is a close second tho. NC is a very competitive state when you view it at face value. Presidential races always come within 3-4 points, but NC republicans cheat like no other. The state is about even from a partisan stand point, probably 55% repub and 45% dem, but the repubs cheat so hardcore in North Carolina. Look at their legislative maps. They had to do a redo of the NC-9 election.

 

i don’t trust those fuckers at all

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NIUHuskies

NIUHuskies 504

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Posted
38 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

North Carolina republicans are the nastiest republicans in the country. Actually no, Wisconsin republicans are the worst. Their maps are drawn to where win almost all of the seats with less than %50 of the votes.

NC is a close second tho. NC is a very competitive state when you view it at face value. Presidential races always come within 3-4 points, but NC republicans cheat like no other. The state is about even from a partisan stand point, probably 55% repub and 45% dem, but the repubs cheat so hardcore in North Carolina. Look at their legislative maps. They had to do a redo of the NC-9 election.

 

i don’t trust those fuckers at all

Georgia wants to say hello...

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5797

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Tillis won that state in 2014 by 45,000 (1.56%).  He reminds me a lot of Gardner - close wins in purple states in a red year.

2020 will not be a red year.

The GOP will try to cheat.  The State Board of Elections is run a Cooper appointee.  So I have some hope. 

Said it before, but the North Carolina Supreme Court is now 6-1 in favor of Dems. It might take some time, but they are going to fix the gerrymandering bullshit, and when they do, people will be surprised at how blue the Tarheel State really is.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Said it before, but the North Carolina Supreme Court is now 6-1 in favor of Dems. It might take some time, but they are going to fix the gerrymandering bullshit, and when they do, people will be surprised at how blue the Tarheel State really is.

Aren’t there a few gerrymandering cases being decided by the US Supreme Court soon?

Edited by Voldemort86
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Js1

Js1 85523

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Aren’t there a few gerrymandering cases being decided by the US Supreme Court soon?

2 - Ohio and North Carolina I think. Virginia got sent back Bc they said the Virginia House GOP had no standing 

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 678

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

North Carolina republicans are the nastiest republicans in the country. Actually no, Wisconsin republicans are the worst. Their maps are drawn to where win almost all of the seats with less than %50 of the votes.

NC is a close second tho. NC is a very competitive state when you view it at face value. Presidential races always come within 3-4 points, but NC republicans cheat like no other. The state is about even from a partisan stand point, probably 55% repub and 45% dem, but the repubs cheat so hardcore in North Carolina. Look at their legislative maps. They had to do a redo of the NC-9 election.

 

i don’t trust those fuckers at all

A party gets desperate as its power starts to wane.

Just watch as Texas starts really trending purple.

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