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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32703

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10 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

ok wonks, how does President Positive affect the Senate outlook?

I don't think it has much direct effect other than depressing straight ballot GOP votes from Trump losing a small amount of support. I think the best impact of this news is that Trump can't push aside COVID as an issue in the presidential election. 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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5 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

ok wonks, how does President Positive affect the Senate outlook?

Wherever his polling goes (up or down) probably has a drag effect on the Senate to some degree.  So like in Montana, Biden getting within 8-9 points would really help Bullock as the divergence isn't as great.  If Trump wins by 15 then Bullock's probably sunk.  It won't define a race as people may vote Trump but be tired of their local rep but it can be too much to carry if the national race delta is too large.  So however this plays, and I think a lot of folks have opinions, will probably be from your own perspective.  I don't imagine it's going to have a large effect.

Places that are probably being underrated which are in play are Alaska, Kansas, and Mississippi.  

 

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Horn Dog

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This would be a fantastic time to organize a spontaneous "Support Trump" or "Burn Your Mask" rally right outside of the Senate.  All the GOP senators need to be encouraged to attend and socialize with the deplorables.  

Edited by Horn Dog
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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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3 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Wherever his polling goes (up or down) probably has a drag effect on the Senate to some degree.  So like in Montana, Biden getting within 8-9 points would really help Bullock as the divergence isn't as great.  If Trump wins by 15 then Bullock's probably sunk.  It won't define a race as people may vote Trump but be tired of their local rep but it can be too much to carry if the national race delta is too large.  So however this plays, and I think a lot of folks have opinions, will probably be from your own perspective.  I don't imagine it's going to have a large effect.

Places that are probably being underrated which are in play are Alaska, Kansas, and Mississippi.  

 

I know that's the conventional wisdom, but I do wonder if there may be some counter-effect if some conservative, anti-Trump voters begin to get concerned about a Dem sweep.  It's one thing to vote against a Senator who has empowered Trump if you think Trump has a shot of getting re-elected.  But, if Trump is off the table, some might start getting concerned about what Biden might do with both Houses.  There are a lot people who prefer a divided government, and if the White House and House are foregone conclusions, it might push them to the right on the Senate.  

Wild speculation on my part. 

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Ghost of LL

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29 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I know that's the conventional wisdom, but I do wonder if there may be some counter-effect if some conservative, anti-Trump voters begin to get concerned about a Dem sweep.  It's one thing to vote against a Senator who has empowered Trump if you think Trump has a shot of getting re-elected.  But, if Trump is off the table, some might start getting concerned about what Biden might do with both Houses.  There are a lot people who prefer a divided government, and if the White House and House are foregone conclusions, it might push them to the right on the Senate.  

Wild speculation on my part. 

That definitely hurt the Dems in 2016.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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9 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Of the Southern States, he shows the most weakness.  RCP has the current polling average at +6 for Cunningham.  Tillis hasn't won a poll they use since June.  

Frankly, I think South Carolina is their fire wall.  If Lindsay loses then I think Georgia, Iowa, Montana, and maybe as a long play, Texas, are all in play.  North Carolina is gonna need an October surprise for Tillis to get back in as the fave.

 

Yeah- but I’d go with North Carolina bc you need that to have any chance at majority, unless you want to think you could flip Michigan which I don’t. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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5 hours ago, Tuco said:

I know that's the conventional wisdom, but I do wonder if there may be some counter-effect if some conservative, anti-Trump voters begin to get concerned about a Dem sweep.  It's one thing to vote against a Senator who has empowered Trump if you think Trump has a shot of getting re-elected.  But, if Trump is off the table, some might start getting concerned about what Biden might do with both Houses.  There are a lot people who prefer a divided government, and if the White House and House are foregone conclusions, it might push them to the right on the Senate.  

Wild speculation on my part. 

This is where I’m at. This is how you think. This is not how most voters think imo. Negligible affect. 

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thepop

thepop 4409

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“Would make my day to roll over and kiss you about now,” said one text message from Cunningham.

In one text from Guzman, she says: “I have flexibility this month — done with school, training, big RFPs, etc. So the only thing I want on my to do list is you.”

Edited by thepop
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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

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10 minutes ago, thepop said:

“Would make my day to roll over and kiss you about now,” said one text message from Cunningham.

In one text from Guzman, she says: “I have flexibility this month — done with school, training, big RFPs, etc. So the only thing I want on my to do list is you.”

12 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Of the Southern States, he shows the most weakness.  RCP has the current polling average at +6 for Cunningham.  Tillis hasn't won a poll they use since June.  

Frankly, I think South Carolina is their fire wall.  If Lindsay loses then I think Georgia, Iowa, Montana, and maybe as a long play, Texas, are all in play.  North Carolina is gonna need an October surprise for Tillis to get back in as the fave.

 

Welp..... there it is.  What a fucking jackass.  What is it with Senators (wanna be) from NC being total fucking idiots when it comes to keeping their dick in their pants.  This could have a sweeping effect.  

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5784

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10 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Welp..... there it is.  What a fucking jackass.  What is it with Senators (wanna be) from NC being total fucking idiots when it comes to keeping their dick in their pants.  This could have a sweeping effect.  

I don't think this shit moves the needle anymore. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26284

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5 hours ago, thepop said:

“Would make my day to roll over and kiss you about now,” said one text message from Cunningham.

In one text from Guzman, she says: “I have flexibility this month — done with school, training, big RFPs, etc. So the only thing I want on my to do list is you.”

What a fucking idiot. 

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5784

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In what universe is this a big deal? Imagine being ready to vote straight ticket Dem as a rebuke of the GOP and this breaks......Well I hate the lawlessness and handling of the pandemic. The president has roughly a thousand sexual harassment allegations against him. He grabs bitches by the pussy. Hope Hicks has been ridden by everyone in the white house. Guilfoyle has a sexual harassment case against her for telling her aide to shut the fuck up and take GOP dick like a good girl. I've seen the first lady's tits. All this allegedly of course. Hmmm on the other hand Cunningham was sexting and *probably* fucking some chick in California! That settles it, Tillis and Donald! 

Anyone who cares about this, only cares because they are jealous that Cunningham has a side piece and prescribe a different set of standards for Dems than Republicans. That person was already voting Donald and Tillis. 

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Patrick Bateman

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48 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I guess I’m really just hoping it’s not a big deal.

republican voters have not cared about all of Trumps baggage the last few years. Why should this hurt Cunningham?

Because you're not trying to appeal to Trumpkin voters, they're gonna Trumpkin.  It's the moderate GOP'er or moderate independent which you need along with motivating a huge turnout from Dems.  You lose any sliver of that and you're in trouble.  Should it matter?  Probably not.  Will it matter in a Southern state like NC which is still very religious in most parts?  Probably.  How much?  We're going to find out.

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Graham is getting his ass blistered. And not the way he usually likes. Just a fucking beating. 
 

just typical two decades outdated protocol colloquialisms is all he’s spouting. He looks way outmatched. 

Will there be a way to watch this later?  On YouTube or something?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18981

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8 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Because you're not trying to appeal to Trumpkin voters, they're gonna Trumpkin.  It's the moderate GOP'er or moderate independent which you need along with motivating a huge turnout from Dems.  You lose any sliver of that and you're in trouble.  Should it matter?  Probably not.  Will it matter in a Southern state like NC which is still very religious in most parts?  Probably.  How much?  We're going to find out.

 

He was gonna glide to a win. Feels like this is probably a big enough slice To move the race 5 or 6 points. Call it dead heat now. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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15 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Graham is getting his ass blistered. And not the way he usually likes. Just a fucking beating. 
 

just typical two decades outdated protocol colloquialisms is all he’s spouting. He looks way outmatched. 

He honestly looks ill at times.  Something is definitely up.  Maybe he realizes his prophecy about him being there more than a few terms and he's a part of the problem, is actually coming true.

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