2020 Senate Elections

[Doc Sam Beckett 5854]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

The SCAr game was early in the afternoon. 

Take it for what it's worth, but ~80% of the commercials during the Clemson game on the ACCN last night had a Harrison commercial. 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Iowa, Maine and Montana begin voting today.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

feeling optimistic about Iowa?

[Zonahorn 8079]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

feeling optimistic about Iowa?

I am

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

This Cunningham news is going to affect him big time.  Y'all lament the different standards applied to R and D on every 5th post.  Suddenly it's not going to apply?  Particularly now where the realignment is primarily due to women leaving the Rs?

[SydneyCarton 49325]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

This Cunningham news is going to affect him big time.  Y'all lament the different standards applied to R and D on every 5th post.  Suddenly it's not going to apply?  Particularly now where the realignment is primarily due to women leaving the Rs?

I get your point, but do you honestly think that these same women that left the R to vote for women's rights are going to rush back to a out of control tire fire because homeboy cheated on a woman? "Listen, this Cunningham guy can't be trusted, so I'm going to have to switch my rights back to the guys looking to bring The Handmaid's Tale to life." That doesn't register either. If they're motivated because they hate what Trump has made the right, they're not switching back.

Now all that being said, my honest take on the Cunningham shit and how it will affect his race is "I have no fucking clue." No outcome would surprise me. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

i picture a 45 year old woman walking into a voting booth and looking down at a name that she now associates with cheater and asked to pull the trigger.  a not insubstantial number will just say 'fuck that guy.'

[hobbes2702 13351]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i picture a 45 year old woman walking into a voting booth and looking down at a name that she now associates with cheater and asked to pull the trigger.  a not insubstantial number will just say 'fuck that guy.'

“Yea fuck that guy. I’m gonna vote the Trump party”. 
 

That doesn’t make sense.

[Bama Chick 28596]

As a white suburban woman, I feel I can give y’all a rare peek into one of our thought processes on this.

WHO GIVES A HOT RED FUCK?

All women are being asked to choose between two mediocre white men in every race we’ve ever voted in.

If y’all really think some sexting is going to outweigh all the horrible terrible no good bad things the Republicans have done and continue to do then y’all have no idea how women work.

WE ARE PISSED OFF.

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Cal’s “sexting” was the equivalent of an 8 year old typing “naked boobies “into a google search bar.

Still incredibly embarrassing for him and family, I’m sure there’s a lot of tough convos for the kids and between his wife.

Edited October 5, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[SizzleChest 8302]

Cal just wants to be crowned king arthur.

[Tuco 5093]

4 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

As a white suburban woman, I feel I can give y’all a rare peek into one of our thought processes on this.

WHO GIVES A HOT RED FUCK?

All women are being asked to choose between two mediocre white men in every race we’ve ever voted in.

If y’all really think some sexting is going to outweigh all the horrible terrible no good bad things the Republicans have done and continue to do then y’all have no idea how women work.

WE ARE PISSED OFF.

Yeah, but Trump (and the Republicans)  won white women in 2016.  I don't get how women work, but I have seen enough to know they don't all work like many of the women I respect.  I wish it were different. 

As we get closer to the election, I am hopeful with many of the signs of enthusiasm (or anger).  But until the votes are counted, I have to admit there is a lot of uncertainty with how shit will play out. 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

20 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The few Bama fans I know IRL fucking hate Tuberville.

 

20 hours ago, G650 said:

I can confirm we indeed do.

 

19 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Oh yes. Fuck him and his rosacea covered cheeks and his gigantic ears and his thumb.

Fuck him dead.

My cousin in Bama is a full on Trumper, but isn't gonna vote for Tuberville.  Not gonna vote for Jones either, but sometimes those half votes matter.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

22 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

So something about him is about to get leaked. Like necrophilia or something I assume. 

I doubt it. Reading the writing on the wall that he has no chance to win re-election- he was a flukey winner in 16, and can claim to have left on his own terms. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I get your point, but do you honestly think that these same women that left the R to vote for women's rights are going to rush back to a out of control tire fire because homeboy cheated on a woman? "Listen, this Cunningham guy can't be trusted, so I'm going to have to switch my rights back to the guys looking to bring The Handmaid's Tale to life." That doesn't register either. If they're motivated because they hate what Trump has made the right, they're not switching back.

Now all that being said, my honest take on the Cunningham shit and how it will affect his race is "I have no fucking clue." No outcome would surprise me. 

I do not, but they may stay home or they may split the ticket and vote for Biden and Tillis.  I have no idea which way this will roll because the state is still very "Southern" and "religious".  Someone compared it to Virginia and that's a poor comparison as NOVA is unlike anywhere in NC, even the Triangle.  NOVA is it's own thing.  Charlotte is still more like Atlanta than FFX County.  Or like Richmond.  Those places skew progressive but still have a heavily 'from the state, moved to the big city' population.  Again, should it matter?  Probably not.  Will it matter?  We're gonna find out.  

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

22 hours ago, gmr548 said:

No. A big part of the winning formula for Democrats in these competitive purple/red seat is traditionally Republican suburban white women. They're not going to vote for him by double digit margins with this news. Write it off. NC senate seat stays red.

 

He was so far ahead I think this is just a reset in the race. I’ve got it from guaranteed Dem to coin flip. But yeah- the analysis part of your post is spot on. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

21 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

Dept. of Meaningless Statistics, Small City Next to Birmingham Alabama Division:

On my street of 28 inhabited houses (the rest are getting bloatified, construction-wise,) there are:

Zero Presidential yard signs.

Senate: 5 Jones signs, 0 Tuberville signs, 1 Jesus 2020 sign (though maybe Jesus is running for President, ahem, Presidente.)

Mayoral: about twice as many signs as the Senate race. I don't know jack about either dood, because how is a mayor of my own town going to affect me?

 

Demographics predominately NW European, with a sprinkling of other continents like any sitcom from the 80s that's not about a Black family. Predominant professions: Lawyer, Doctor, Sales, Hippy. (2 of the Jones signs are Known Hippies.)

The Trump/Biden signs start up a block away, but are still rarer than the Mayoral or Senatorial ones.

Repped for amazing how is the mayor of my city going to affect me line. Outstanding. 

[G650 14421]

8 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I do not, but they may stay home or they may split the ticket and vote for Biden and Tillis.  I have no idea which way this will roll because the state is still very "Southern" and "religious".  Someone compared it to Virginia and that's a poor comparison as NOVA is unlike anywhere in NC, even the Triangle.  NOVA is it's own thing.  Charlotte is still more like Atlanta than FFX County.  Or like Richmond.  Those places skew progressive but still have a heavily 'from the state, moved to the big city' population.  Again, should it matter?  Probably not.  Will it matter?  We're gonna find out.  

This is not accurate. The Triangle and Asheville areas are further left than anything in Va outside Newport News or Charlottesville.

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

Just now, G650 said:

This is not accurate. The Triangle and Asheville areas are further left than anything in Va outside Newport News or Charlottesville.

NOVA? 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

15 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Cal’s “sexting” was the equivalent of an 8 year old typing “naked boobies “into a google search bar.

Still incredibly embarrassing for him and family, I’m sure there’s a lot of tough convos for the kids and between his wife.

His sexting was incredibly lame and boring. Unless you are a moron of the highest order or Cal has some bizarre sexual deformity it also clearly marked him as a cheater. The number of middle aged hetero men who have ever rolled over in bed in the morning and kissed a woman not his wife after not spending the night fucking her is, in all likelihood, zero. 
GMR wrote the race off. I call it a toss up. But if you don’t read those texts and know- 100% that he’s ducking the person he’s texting “who replied back- The only thing I want to do on my to do list is you” you are a stone cold nut. 
I will say this, the nature of the texts made me believe this probably isn’t a really common thing for him and make me think he probably really cares for her or loves her on some level. If it wasn’t that my guess is the texts would have been dick pics and beaver shots back and forth with a little heavy petting going on. Which is what I think all “sexting” should probably be in a sane and rational world. 
 

[G650 14421]

2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

NOVA? 

Northern Va isn't super left, it's somewhat Democratic, and has a shit load of people. That's different than being super liberal. Charlottesville and the Peninsula are deep blue.

[Tuco 5093]

5 minutes ago, G650 said:

Northern Va isn't super left, it's somewhat Democratic, and has a shit load of people. That's different than being super liberal. Charlottesville and the Peninsula are deep blue.

I get the feeling with NoVA, there is has to be some effect of Trump attacking DC on a regular basis.  It's one thing to use rhetoric about working to change the dysfunctional culture of "Washington", referencing the government.  It's another thing to be actively working to relocate jobs out of DC, regularly attacking the Washington/DC governments, and generally just attacking the city itself.  

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

1 minute ago, G650 said:

Northern Va isn't super left, it's somewhat Democratic, and has a shit load of people. That's different than being super liberal. Charlottesville and the Peninsula are deep blue.

District 8 and 11 are more left than anything in NC.  District 10 goes out to Leesburg which used to be the sticks out to WV.  As it's grown and becomes more of a business corridor out Route 7 and the access road, it's turned more blue as the Wexler result can attest.  My point was NOVA makes Virginia very strange to compare to as FFX county, Arlington County, and the cities of Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria voted Democrat anywhere from 64-68% recently.  Wake county is still around 57-58& in comparison.

 

[G650 14421]

4 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

District 8 and 11 are more left than anything in NC.  District 10 goes out to Leesburg which used to be the sticks out to WV.  As it's grown and becomes more of a business corridor out Route 7 and the access road, it's turned more blue as the Wexler result can attest.  My point was NOVA makes Virginia very strange to compare to as FFX county, Arlington County, and the cities of Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria voted Democrat anywhere from 64-68% recently.  Wake county is still around 57-58& in comparison.

 

District 10 = NoVa.

 

ETA: I don't disagree with your point, it's important to get the labels right though or people misunderstand our state.

Edited October 5, 2020 by G650

[G650 14421]

14 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I get the feeling with NoVA, there is has to be some effect of Trump attacking DC on a regular basis.  It's one thing to use rhetoric about working to change the dysfunctional culture of "Washington", referencing the government.  It's another thing to be actively working to relocate jobs out of DC, regularly attacking the Washington/DC governments, and generally just attacking the city itself.  

There's some, but I think the suburban women defections are what is really driving it.

[406W30th 1111]

Re: Cunningham vs. Thillis, obviously the sexting is a bad look but is it really any worse than a senator testing positive for COVID?

 

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

6 minutes ago, G650 said:

District 10 = NoVa.

 

ETA: I don't disagree with your point, it's important to get the labels right though or people misunderstand our state.

Incorrect.  District 8, district 11 and parts of district 10 = NOVA.  

 

[G650 14421]

4 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Incorrect.  District 8, district 11 and parts of district 10 = NOVA.  

 

District 8 is Alexandria City. District 11 was cleaved out of the 8th and 10th a while back, and is only recently Democratic. It's Tom Davis's old district.

 

 

I mean, frame it how you want, I'm just explaining to you the make up of my state. Do with it what you will.

[babysdaddy 2731]

Texted a buddy in NC and asked him about the Cal news and if it would change the race.  He asked his neighbors that he described as never trumpers/liberals and their response was "We don't give a fuck, we are voting for Cal".  One data point, but I think that is the response.  As long as Cal didn't cultivate his image as a family man and good husband, then he should be good. 

 

[babysdaddy 2731]

19 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Texted a buddy in NC and asked him about the Cal news and if it would change the race.  He asked his neighbors that he described as never trumpers/liberals and their response was "We don't give a fuck, we are voting for Cal".  One data point, but I think that is the response.  As long as Cal didn't cultivate his image as a family man and good husband, then he should be good. 

 

Apparently there is a 2nd one that he's been having an affair with since 2012.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

This gets into the whole question about whether "candidates matter."  Broadly speaking, I think candidates do matter.  Mark Kelly is a fantastic candidate.  He's the best candidate the Democrats have recruited since John Glenn.

But then you look at the polls--Kelly is only running a couple points ahead of Biden.  Now, you can argue that Biden is perhaps benefiting from some reverse coattails.  But at the same time--Team D is up big in Arizona irrespective of who the individual member is.

Now, is that going to run the same in North Carolina?  I don't know.  But I think that this late in the election cycle the likelihood is that people are voting for Team D over Cal Cunningham.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

I get the feeling with NoVA, there is has to be some effect of Trump attacking DC on a regular basis.  It's one thing to use rhetoric about working to change the dysfunctional culture of "Washington", referencing the government.  It's another thing to be actively working to relocate jobs out of DC, regularly attacking the Washington/DC governments, and generally just attacking the city itself.  

I think you are overthinking it. Educated people are horrified by trump. Nova is highly educated. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This gets into the whole question about whether "candidates matter."  Broadly speaking, I think candidates do matter.  Mark Kelly is a fantastic candidate.  He's the best candidate the Democrats have recruited since John Glenn.

But then you look at the polls--Kelly is only running a couple points ahead of Biden.  Now, you can argue that Biden is perhaps benefiting from some reverse coattails.  But at the same time--Team D is up big in Arizona irrespective of who the individual member is.

Now, is that going to run the same in North Carolina?  I don't know.  But I think that this late in the election cycle the likelihood is that people are voting for Team D over Cal Cunningham.

Most will. Some won’t. Question is how many are some. 
I was  just thinking to myself this morning that Arizona McSally is so bad she’s probably actually driving down trump some. Weird dynamic. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[RDCanecutter 26853]

1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

NOVA? 

Asheville proper probably way more left than NOVA. In the 90s, Buncombe County (Asheville) tripped back hard right after you got about 50 yards outside the Asheville city limits. Basically everything west of that (back then) all the way to Murphy was 1950s Mayberry. Nowadays Buncombe County is probably all more Asheville-y, dunno.

[RDCanecutter 26853]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Repped for amazing how is the mayor of my city going to affect me line. Outstanding. 

My non-worries about my town's politics are based on two things:

1. All the candidates seem to have more sense than the ones who run for national office, and

2. (Possibly contradicting Point 1) a few years back a city councelcritter  told me (Me) that he thought I should run for local office. Sure, we were in a bar, and people say weird shit in bars, but that right there told me the local jobs weren't in charge of any nukes.

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

4 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Asheville proper probably way more left than NOVA. In the 90s, Buncombe County (Asheville) tripped back hard right after you got about 50 yards outside the Asheville city limits. Basically everything west of that (back then) all the way to Murphy was 1950s Mayberry. Nowadays Buncombe County is probably all more Asheville-y, dunno.

Well Asheville is about 100k or Buncombe County which is about 250k and it's gerrymandered so it's split up.  It's not going to drag a state one way or another because of population.  It's like saying Newport News is is pretty left leaning, which it is, but it isn't going to lead the state from one party to another because of it's lack of population. 

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

District 8 is Alexandria City. District 11 was cleaved out of the 8th and 10th a while back, and is only recently Democratic. It's Tom Davis's old district.

 

 

I mean, frame it how you want, I'm just explaining to you the make up of my state. Do with it what you will.

Understood.  And thanks for the information for the thread.  I understand the area pretty well, since I partially grew up there and part  of my family is there.  We'll move on as we don't agree but Connolly was my rep and the fucker is still there.  Still get his emails.  lol.  I need get off that list.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Patrick Bateman

[Voldemort86 2259]

Biden and governor cooper seem to be pretty strong in North Carolina.

 

hopefully it helps Cunningham weather the storm.

[Goredho 17627]

If Trump keeps infecting GOP senators, I bet ol’ Mitch starts supporting a pushback of the election.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Shit.

 

[Goredho 17627]

Well, I just donated the equivalent of my stimulus money to Get Mitch Or Die Trying.  I couldn’t think of a better place to put it as an investment into my children’s future.  If Trump somehow engineers a 2nd term, he won’t be able to operate as he has without the senate providing an umbrella for him.  If he loses, then I hope the GOP gets a very loud message from voters across the board — you do not represent America.

Who’s next?

[Woland 755]

19 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Shit.

 

Suppression efforts by the GOP make me more determined to vote. Hopefully others feel the same way.

[Horn Dog 10156]

23 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Shit.

 

Shocked I tell you....shocked!

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

6 minutes ago, Woland said:

Suppression efforts by the GOP make me more determined to vote. Hopefully others feel the same way.

I agree that the net effect of ramping up suppression is in doubt.  It has supported a 1000 different articles in 1000 different papers.  For every vote in NC they successfully suppress, one pops up in VA they’ll never get back.  
Who knows what the final tally will be but I have a sense it is just Rs rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic as they go down.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

23 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Well, I just donated the equivalent of my stimulus money to Get Mitch Or Die Trying.  I couldn’t think of a better place to put it as an investment into my children’s future.  If Trump somehow engineers a 2nd term, he won’t be able to operate as he has without the senate providing an umbrella for him.  If he loses, then I hope the GOP gets a very loud message from voters across the board — you do not represent America.

Who’s next?

This right here.Death Cult.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

44 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

This right here.Death Cult.

 

If you don't test, then no one has it.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I agree that the net effect of ramping up suppression is in doubt.  It has supported a 1000 different articles in 1000 different papers.  For every vote in NC they successfully suppress, one pops up in VA they’ll never get back.  
Who knows what the final tally will be but I have a sense it is just Rs rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic as they go down.

Hot wheels changing the rules in the last week or so has pissed a lot of people off.

[cactusflinthead 27626]

Ain't no way this can go on the basketball forum

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

if Ds ever go the route of electing based on meaningless celebrity, you could do a lot worse than cuban

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

Those two have a history and Cuban usually owns him.