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2020 Senate Elections


Patrick Bateman

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15 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

From listening to Amy.

 

Trump Trailing 14 and 16 points post debate/covid nationally

5 R held senate seats, all in toss up

3 R held senate seats lean dem (Maine, az, and Colorado)

8 seats in play.  Dems win half to get to 50

NC scandal, in normal year certainly would derail.  So much churn going on makes this unclear

Looks exactly the way it looked 4 years ago with the “grab them by the p” tape.  R’s expected total down ballot massacre. Expecting it again this year and there is no Comey letter coming. 

Difference is the opponent.  Biden was not who they wanted to face.  Rs wanted to go against Bernie. Intensity of dislike for biden much less than Hillary

Voters may not love biden, but he is much more palatable than Hillary was.

Did she comment on Doug Jones? Seems like "win half" doesn't account for his probable loss..or is AL one of the toss up states?  

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9 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Did she comment on Doug Jones? Seems like "win half" doesn't account for his probable loss..or is AL one of the toss up states?  

The math has Jones losing.

add 4 seats - losing the Bama seat adds up to a majority of 50 seats for the dems. 
 

thankfully momentum appears to be swinging our way in Iowa and South Carolina. Will it be enough?  I’d feel better if bullock could narrow up Montana some to boost our odds. We gotta get McConnell out of majority leader. The guy doesn’t give a damn about this country and the people in it, he only wants to confirm republican judges. No interest in passing bills. 

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13 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Video of Kelly's answer

 

 

wait wait wait, you are telling me his wife was hospitalized for 6 months, and has had to undergo physical and speech therapy for the last 9 years, and he didn't leave her as soon as something better came along?

That sounds downright decent, almost maybe like true love. Family man with family values.

Hard to believe, huh GOP?

 

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On 10/6/2020 at 10:27 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if Ds ever go the route of electing based on meaningless celebrity, you could do a lot worse than cuban

I want Mark Cuban to be the next GOP nominee.  He's essentially said he could go either way- wherever he feels like he has a path to the nomination.  I can't believe that's on the Dem side.  On the GOP side we could have Cuban actually be what the morons thought Trump was, a bombastic billionaire businessman, with a heart, sense, and good at actual business as opposed to the fraud that is Trump.  Also- he's got some pretty good cred in the minority community- he could actually peel off some black male voters as opposed to talking about it like Trump.

Also- the GOP will be a much friendlier place for him with the Mavs sex scandal issue. That, along with being a hetero white male cuts against Cuban in the Dem field (they made an exception for Joe due to being electable).  

Cuban could be a huge huge huge step away from Trumpism for the GOP.  We all have our dreams.  He would be one of mine.  Pair his with Paul Ryan and get after it. 

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16 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

NC is going to stay R. The dem nominee fucked his mistress in his own house and sent pictures to her.

Saw that. And there is another lady involved.

The strategist is apparently at least an 8.5 on the cray cray scale.  She was pissed b/c he didn't pay enough attention to her, said she had him by the balls, demanded one more fuck etc etc.  

I misread the lameness of the sexting. I thought it was b/c he had a genuine love/attraction for her.  Apparently that's the best he could muster with her going crazy on him. 

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14 hours ago, babysdaddy said:


May not, especially in a blue wave. Haven’t seen any recent polling. He was up 3.6%.

But as I posted up thread, if this guy was presenting himself as some moral beacon, fucking his mistress in his own house and sending dick pics is going to be tough.

He more or less was.  Army reserve, family man, sober and calm voice for NC.  Bland stand in for- I'm not that guy from the unpopular party of Trump.  How I read a couple articles on that. 

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15 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

She did not comment but I agree.  He's toast. 

Any chance at a GOP surprise in Michigan? The incumbent seems like he's boring/sucks/whatever- GOP has dumped a ton of resources in- the Dem's biggest concern is getting out the AA vote- the GOP guy is black- any chance he runs 5 or 6 points ahead of Trump and pulls off a surprise?  He's got bad timing for sure- running in 2018 and 2020, back to back, which are huge Dem tidal wave years.  No idea if he's viable again after this.

Also- I don't know the guy really well so if he sucks don't get pissy with me to the board- I've read a couple articles about him- seen him make a couple appearances- he doesn't seem to be cozying up with Trump-  Academy grad and small business owner. That's pretty good background resume type stuff for a pol.  

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16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I want Mark Cuban to be the next GOP nominee.  He's essentially said he could go either way- wherever he feels like he has a path to the nomination.  I can't believe that's on the Dem side.  On the GOP side we could have Cuban actually be what the morons thought Trump was, a bombastic billionaire businessman, with a heart, sense, and good at actual business as opposed to the fraud that is Trump.  Also- he's got some pretty good cred in the minority community- he could actually peel off some black male voters as opposed to talking about it like Trump.

Also- the GOP will be a much friendlier place for him with the Mavs sex scandal issue. That, along with being a hetero white male cuts against Cuban in the Dem field (they made an exception for Joe due to being electable).  

Cuban could be a huge huge huge step away from Trumpism for the GOP.  We all have our dreams.  He would be one of mine.  Pair his with Paul Ryan and get after it. 

You had me going until you dropped that giant turd in the very last sentence.

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Just now, Beau Vine said:

You had me going until you dropped that giant turd in the very last sentence.

I'm looking for anyone that stood up to Trump during his ascent and being in power. Paul Ryan basically quit rather than working with him. That shows more character than anyone else on the national stage for the GOP as far as I'm concerned. It doesn't have to be him- just someone like him- that wasn't a Trump lackey.  There are too few of those guys around.  Maybe Cuban runs into George P Bush.  

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11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He more or less was.  Army reserve, family man, sober and calm voice for NC.  Bland stand in for- I'm not that guy from the unpopular party of Trump.  How I read a couple articles on that. 

His only defense at this point is "I made a huge mistake.  Like many people, in a moment of personal weakness, I physically and emotional strayed from my marriage.  I personally behaved in a reprehenisible manner.  I began to understand that this summer, ended the relationship, and began the painful process of recommitting to my family. I apologize to them, and to (Mistress) for the pain I've caused.  I am committed to doing right by North Carolina and my family.  I will have no further comment on this personal issue.  We have 4 weeks until election day, and I will be campaign hard until then."

Then hope trump smears shit on something and people move on.  It's all he's got.

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15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The chance of a politically aware NBA owner who otherwise doesn't care about the two main parties declaring himself a Republican this decade is about as slim as the chance you or I are the next Texas Governor. 

Agreed in general, but I suppose it depends on if he has actual ambitions to be the president and to be the president sometime soon (Note- I don't think that he really does- I think it's something he's more interested in talking about a little bit as opposed to actually doing).  If he does want to be the president and wants to do it soon the path is on the GOP side of the aisle as the Dems are fixing to own the white house.  Biden almost certainly won't run for re-election but Harris should have the inside track if the country isn't a smoking ruin of a mess, and I don't get the sense any outsider candidate for the dems is going to be a straight white male with a serious Me Too scandal within his organization.  Again, I don't think he's all that interested in being President- at least not at this time- but if he was that's the argument for running on the GOP side. 

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2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

His only defense at this point is "I made a huge mistake.  Like many people, in a moment of personal weakness, I physically and emotional strayed from my marriage.  I personally behaved in a reprehenisible manner.  I began to understand that this summer, ended the relationship, and began the painful process of recommitting to my family. I apologize to them, and to (Mistress) for the pain I've caused.  I am committed to doing right by North Carolina and my family.  I will have no further comment on this personal issue.  We have 4 weeks until election day, and I will be campaign hard until then."

Then hope trump smears shit on something and people move on.  It's all he's got.

But is that really open to him if he has another mistress in the wings as has been said? If there's #2 then he can't take this tact- he has to basically say- I like the ladies- so what?  You gonna vote for a horn dog like me or that Trump sychophant- and hope that Biden wins Carolina by 5 and nobody wants to split their ticket.  I think.  

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Any chance at a GOP surprise in Michigan? The incumbent seems like he's boring/sucks/whatever- GOP has dumped a ton of resources in- the Dem's biggest concern is getting out the AA vote- the GOP guy is black- any chance he runs 5 or 6 points ahead of Trump and pulls off a surprise?  He's got bad timing for sure- running in 2018 and 2020, back to back, which are huge Dem tidal wave years.  No idea if he's viable again after this.

Also- I don't know the guy really well so if he sucks don't get pissy with me to the board- I've read a couple articles about him- seen him make a couple appearances- he doesn't seem to be cozying up with Trump-  Academy grad and small business owner. That's pretty good background resume type stuff for a pol.  

Peter's is just a really boring candidate.  He's not a super engaged campaigner.  James is working his ass off.  It's kind of the opposite of Alabama, except Peter's isn't a POS like Tuberville, and MI is purple enough that james has a punchers chance.   Where Jones (AL) is fucking amazing, but the partisan slant is just too much.

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

But is that really open to him if he has another mistress in the wings as has been said? If there's #2 then he can't take this tact- he has to basically say- I like the ladies- so what?  You gonna vote for a horn dog like me or that Trump sychophant- and hope that Biden wins Carolina by 5 and nobody wants to split their ticket.  I think.  

It's not another Mistress (at least as of this morning), it's the friend Mistress #1 is bitching to about being tossed aside. That's where the texts are coming from. Maybe more has come to light since I fired up the webz over coffee.  If he's been dicking down a second chick, then he's done.  And he should be.

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2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Peter's is just a really boring candidate.  He's not a super engaged campaigner.  James is working his ass off.  It's kind of the opposite of Alabama, except Peter's isn't a POS like Tuberville, and MI is purple enough that james has a punchers chance.   Where Jones (AL) is fucking amazing, but the partisan slant is just too much.

If I was in charge of the world I would be super happy to trade South Carolina or Alabama for Michigan straight up.  Not to change the balance of the Senate- but because America would be better off, imo.  

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15 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's not another Mistress (at least as of this morning), it's the friend Mistress #1 is bitching to about being tossed aside. That's where the texts are coming from. Maybe more has come to light since I fired up the webz over coffee.  If he's been dicking down a second chick, then he's done.  And he should be.

The second chick wasn't corroborated or anything it was rumor's.  And it could just be like the telephone game where there's two women involved but related to the same affair/set of facts.  I certainly have zero inside information. 

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8 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Hopefully, the story about a second mistress isn't true.  The only stories I've seen refer to a story on NationalFile.com - this one:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/national-file/ 

I suspect that this is the GOP smear machine kicking into gear here, but I suppose that we'll find out soon enough.

I clicked on that website and it looks like it was created for the express purpose of giving my computer aids.  No thanks. 

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17 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Hopefully, the story about a second mistress isn't true.  The only stories I've seen refer to a story on NationalFile.com - this one:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/national-file/ 

I suspect that this is the GOP smear machine kicking into gear here, but I suppose that we'll find out soon enough.

when you're banging a side piece in your wife's bed, it ain't the GOP smear machine you should be worried about.  we should all be globally pissed at cunningham right now.  that counts as a senatorial october surprise that could very well change control of the chamber.

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37 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Any chance at a GOP surprise in Michigan? The incumbent seems like he's boring/sucks/whatever- GOP has dumped a ton of resources in- the Dem's biggest concern is getting out the AA vote- the GOP guy is black- any chance he runs 5 or 6 points ahead of Trump and pulls off a surprise?  He's got bad timing for sure- running in 2018 and 2020, back to back, which are huge Dem tidal wave years.  No idea if he's viable again after this.

Also- I don't know the guy really well so if he sucks don't get pissy with me to the board- I've read a couple articles about him- seen him make a couple appearances- he doesn't seem to be cozying up with Trump-  Academy grad and small business owner. That's pretty good background resume type stuff for a pol.  

James is a good candidate and a reasonable guy for a GOP candidate. He’s also a minority, which is a unicorn for the Republican Party. They want him to win, step in, and be the next will Hurd except maybe a little more conservative.

I don’t have a negative opinion of James, but the only thing I have against him is that he’s running in the wrong state. If he was running in Ohio or Iowa then fine, but the senate map is so in favor of the GOP that we need both Michigan senate seats to be blue. Heck we need both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seats which we don’t have. We just don’t have as many opportunities to win seats as the GOP. The GOP has way too many cruddy small states who vote republican no matter what. 

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8 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Wulaw, I don't know why you still believe Paul Ryan is anything more than an empty suit.  He completely shit the bed in what should have been his time to shine.  He's a policy wonk in the same way Trump is a successful businessman.

I'm a slow learner?  I'm holding onto anyone who didn't bow and scrape and kiss the ring.  That's it. That's my willingness to vote for a GOP candidate. It's my single issue on the Republican side- did you support the cheeto in Chief.  It's a pass/fail for me. He passes.  Bigly. 

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13 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

when you're banging a side piece in your wife's bed, it ain't the GOP smear machine you should be worried about.  we should all be globally pissed at cunningham right now.  that counts as a senatorial october surprise that could very well change control of the chamber.

apparently he's now also under investigation from the Army Reserve.  Toast.  What a fucking idiot.

 

https://www.wral.com/army-reserve-investigating-cunningham-after-woman-confirms-affair-more-texts-emerge/19323479/#.X33J32vfdc4.twitter

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8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

, but the senate map is so in favor of the GOP that we need both Michigan senate seats to be blue. Heck we need both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seats which we don’t have. We just don’t have as many opportunities to win seats as the GOP. The GOP has way too many cruddy small states who vote republican no matter what. 

I don't think this is true- NO CHANCE FOR GOP States without a wave or terrible candidate from Dems- probably need both

(19)

CA, OR, WA, NV, NM CO, VA, MN, MA, VT, MA, CT, RI, MD, NJ, DE, HA, IL, NY

Little to no CHANCE FOR DEMS unless there is a wave or awful candidate

(21)

ID, UT, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AK, MIssouri, Mississippi, TN, Kentucky, SC, GA, AK, IN, WV

Either Way

IA, OH, PN, WI, MI, FL AZ, NC, NH- I'm forgetting one here.

 

of the either way group- I'd rate IA, OH, FL, NC tilted GOP, I'd rate WI, MI, NH, AZ, PA tilted Dem.  That makes it 1 state I forgot and its 25 GOP and 24 Dem.  OF the states that are in the GOP column I think TX, GA, SC are trending away from GOP. I think Michigan, IA, OH, PA are trending GOP long term. I think NH, NC, AZ, FL are trending Dem.

You don't need both seats from MI to control the Senate- and it's likely that Michigan gets more purple and continues to get more purple- I think.  Hell, we'd be a lot better collectively as a nation if the swing states that could go either direction every election looked something like:


OH, IA, MI, WI, PA, TX, AZ, FL, GA, NC, VA, NH, ME, CO, NV- if you had those 15 states up for grabs every election cycle that gets the South West in play, the SE in play, Texas, and the mid west and a little portion of NE.  It leaves the ACELA Corridor and the West coast at the one end ideaologically, and the plain states as a counterbalance.  Dems obviously would start out ahead in this world- but if it felt like CO, VA, NH, MA were in play for the GOP I think you'd get better candidates for president (I know- Senate thread- but this is a natural outreach of what I'm talking about with he who must not be named here) and you probably end up with something that nobody is too terribly pissed off at. Maybe.  


But yeah man- I think you need to recalibrate your Senate map fears- it's not as bad a hole as you thin- and I see a couple states in the should be GOP that Dems already have- and a lot of states that will be in play over the next decade.  

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Given that Trump has done a complete 180 on a ton of the cornerstones of conservatism and his followers blindly and instantly switch sides to whatever Trump wants, it's very clear that the GOP is easily conned by a charismatic celebrity businessman with pliable policy goals. If Cuban could somehow con the Republican base into believing he hates blacks and liberals enough to give us a Cuban vs. Biden or Harris 2024, I'd be perfectly fine with that. Harris v. Cuban would be the biggest "I can live with the candidate I voted against" election in my lifetime.

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14 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

apparently he's now also under investigation from the Army Reserve.  Toast.  What a fucking idiot.

 

https://www.wral.com/army-reserve-investigating-cunningham-after-woman-confirms-affair-more-texts-emerge/19323479/#.X33J32vfdc4.twitter

Yeah but that's just SOP for military, right? It's frowned upon for an officer and a gentleman to get caught fucking someone other than his wife- that's not new intelligence or scandal is it?

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14 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

all these "it don't matter in today's environment" posts are going to age like fine milk.

Our current president has a thousand sexual assault allegations against him and is on tape saying he moves on bitches and grabs em by the pussy. 

If those "it doesn't matter" posts age like fine milk, then it's because of a hypocritical voting base and not because it actually does matter. 

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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Given that Trump has done a complete 180 on a ton of the cornerstones of conservatism and his followers blindly and instantly switch sides to whatever Trump wants, it's very clear that the GOP is easily conned by a charismatic celebrity businessman with pliable policy goals. If Cuban could somehow con the Republican base into believing he hates blacks and liberals enough to give us a Cuban vs. Biden or Harris 2024, I'd be perfectly fine with that. Harris v. Cuban would be the biggest "I can live with the candidate I voted against" election in my lifetime.

I don't think the Con job for Cuban is that he hates blacks. I think the con job Cuban has to pull off is that he's not a race traitor?  I don't know how to put that exactly.  I don't think the deplorables need their person to hate the "others" so much as they need to be told that they are special and not going to fall behind the "others" on their list of priorities.  I don't love the way I phrased it with race traitors, but I don't know what to call it better.  

I could well be wrong though and they need him to hate the "other" but I don't think so.  Especially if they can see it continue to get away from them and get marginalized- they will be fine with anyone who says- lets not let it go any further than where it's at right now.  

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don't think the Con job for Cuban is that he hates blacks. I think the con job Cuban has to pull off is that he's not a race traitor?  I don't know how to put that exactly.  I don't think the deplorables need their person to hate the "others" so much as they need to be told that they are special and not going to fall behind the "others" on their list of priorities.  I don't love the way I phrased it with race traitors, but I don't know what to call it better.  

I could well be wrong though and they need him to hate the "other" but I don't think so.  Especially if they can see it continue to get away from them and get marginalized- they will be fine with anyone who says- lets not let it go any further than where it's at right now.  

i think an association with the NBA is a big negative in this area.

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49 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The second chick wasn't corroborated or anything it was rumor's.  And it could just be like the telephone game where there's two women involved but related to the same affair/set of facts.  I certainly have zero inside information. 

There were a bunch of headlines that I think were conservative clickbait about “another person “. But when you read down, it looked like a friend of the mistress. At least that what I saw.  

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17 minutes ago, Kermit said:

So now we’re clutching our pearls over politicians and strange? I’ve got whiplash from all the changes in direction. 

I don't think anyone is clutching pearls over infidelity. I think everyone is clenching their fists because of a potential lost senate seat. 

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42 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Wulaw, I don't know why you still believe Paul Ryan is anything more than an empty suit.  He completely shit the bed in what should have been his time to shine.  He's a policy wonk in the same way Trump is a successful businessman.

Seriously. I mean Paul Ryan is devoid of ... anything. His greatest accomplishment was convincing the chat-show Republicans who don't work on policy like Peggy Noonan that he was a serious person and then proved otherwise. He didn't ever pass any serious reforms and got rolled as speaker by a splinter faction in his own caucus because he refused to put them in their place. He's the least effective speaker in history and makes John Boehner look like Joseph Gurney Cannon. Future generations will remember him for only managing to hold the line on a single rule, one named after a serial molester. 

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7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think an association with the NBA is a big negative in this area.

To be fair, he seems to be building a team full of white Europeans, so that might play. And they're Europeans from badass countries like Latvia and Slovenia, not faggy libtard Europe like the UK and France.

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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

To be fair, he seems to be building a team full of white Europeans, so that might play. And they're Europeans from badass countries like Latvia and Slovenia, not faggy libtard Europe like the UK and France.

Fuck yeah man. You got me from mildy intrigued to getting ready to run for precinct captain!

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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Seriously. I mean Paul Ryan is devoid of ... anything. His greatest accomplishment was convincing the chat-show Republicans who don't work on policy like Peggy Noonan that he was a serious person and then proved otherwise. He didn't ever pass any serious reforms and got rolled as speaker by a splinter faction in his own caucus because he refused to put them in their place. He's the least effective speaker in history and makes John Boehner look like Joseph Gurney Cannon. Future generations will remember him for only managing to hold the line on a single rule, one named after a serial molester. 

Wait. You think anyone is ever going to remember Paul Ryan? History already lost that dude's phone number. 

 

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1 hour ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

wait wait wait, you are telling me his wife was hospitalized for 6 months, and has had to undergo physical and speech therapy for the last 9 years, and he didn't leave her as soon as something better came along?

That sounds downright decent, almost maybe like true love. Family man with family values.

Hard to believe, huh GOP?

 

Is Newt Gingrich nuts? Consider the symptoms.

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