2020 Senate Elections

[Brisketexan 106618]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

all these "it don't matter in today's environment" posts are going to age like fine milk.

 

50 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Our current president has a thousand sexual assault allegations against him and is on tape saying he moves on bitches and grabs em by the pussy. 

If those "it doesn't matter" posts age like fine milk, then it's because of a hypocritical voting base and not because it actually does matter. 

Yeah.....I mean, the data has shown that this sort of shit doesn't matter.  The POTUS bragged about grabbing women by the pussy, was openly unfaithful to his wife with a porn star who he paid off....

I mean, I don't like that it's that way, and a shitload of us said "guys, we don't think this is the standard you want to set," but Trump and the GOP and the evangelicals said "nope, this is how we want it."  So, here we are.  Again, cheating with your pregnant wife with a porn star is okay now.  So, that's where we are.

[High Plains Drifter 11161]

 

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

The chance of a politically aware NBA owner who otherwise doesn't care about the two main parties declaring himself a Republican this decade is about as slim as the chance you or I are the next Texas Governor. 

 

 

 

[SydneyCarton 49325]

44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Yeah.....I mean, the data has shown that this sort of shit doesn't matter.  The POTUS bragged about grabbing women by the pussy, was openly unfaithful to his wife with a porn star who he paid off....

I mean, I don't like that it's that way, and a shitload of us said "guys, we don't think this is the standard you want to set," but Trump and the GOP and the evangelicals said "nope, this is how we want it."  So, here we are.  Again, cheating with your pregnant wife with a porn star is okay now.  So, that's where we are.

That's not entirely accurate. It's only OK if you're a Republican. Because saving unborn babies and shit. 

[Blotto 23974]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Wait. You think anyone is ever going to remember Paul Ryan? History already lost that dude's phone number. 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm a slow learner?  I'm holding onto anyone who didn't bow and scrape and kiss the ring.  That's it. That's my willingness to vote for a GOP candidate. It's my single issue on the Republican side- did you support the cheeto in Chief.  It's a pass/fail for me. He passes.  Bigly. 

Your vote doesn’t matter so you should sit it out.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

That's not entirely accurate. It's only OK if you're a Republican. Because saving unborn babies and shit. 

Yeah, I don't know--maybe.  I think it might matter with suburban women.  But I honestly think their negative partisanship is so strong right now that it really doesn't matter (so long as it was consensual and genuinely non-coercive).

But fuck--who knows.  I'd really like to see more polling on it.

[Pescado_Rojo 19558]

 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

I refuse to call these October surprises, but Thom Tillis just had it exposed that his ex-wife claimed “cruel and inhuman treatment” in their divorce proceedings. No specifics, but that reasoning has to include one of domestic violence, adultery, emotional or verbal abuse, or sexual assault In the state of Tennessee where they divorced. So yea... run a woman next time.

Also Bollier’s Republican opponent in the Kansas Senate election performed abortions, at least for a woman that had an ectopic pregnancy. That shouldn’t be a big deal and to shit on someone for that sucks, but Kansas pro life groups think differently.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Your vote doesn’t matter so you should sit it out.

I mean, that’s what I’m doing this time around. That’s what I will do in 2024 if they don’t nominate someone I want to vote for. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, that’s what I’m doing this time around. That’s what I will do in 2024 if they don’t nominate someone I want to vote for. 

Your vote won’t matter in 2024 either so why bother?

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

21 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I refuse to call these October surprises, but Thom Tillis just had it exposed that his ex-wife claimed “cruel and inhuman treatment” in their divorce proceedings. No specifics, but that reasoning has to include one of domestic violence, adultery, emotional or verbal abuse, or sexual assault In the state of Tennessee where they divorced. So yea... run a woman next time.

Also Bollier’s Republican opponent in the Kansas Senate election performed abortions, at least for a woman that had an ectopic pregnancy. That shouldn’t be a big deal and to shit on someone for that sucks, but Kansas pro life groups think differently.

Ectopic?  I can’t imagine that moving the needle at all. That’s not viable. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Your vote won’t matter in 2024 either so why bother?

I like to vote for people that I think are good for leadership in our country. It makes me happy. I do it for me. Not because it matters in the grand scheme of things. How is that hard to understand? 
I do all sorts of things for my own personal enjoyment that don’t matter. Like watching longhorn football. Or posting on this board. I don’t delude myself into thinking it makes a difference. I do it because it’s amusing. 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ectopic?  I can’t imagine that moving the needle at all. That’s not viable. 

It shouldn’t, just making waves again. Kobach tried it in the primary.

[Beau Vine 55824]

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

This is 2020. Cunningham could have multiple affairs with goats and it will barely move the needle. Donald trump is somehow the President. Go back to yourself in 1990 and say those words out loud. Donald trump is the president. Some of y’all are just being ridiculous.

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I like to vote for people that I think are good for leadership in our country. It makes me happy. I do it for me. Not because it matters in the grand scheme of things. How is that hard to understand? 
I do all sorts of things for my own personal enjoyment that don’t matter. Like watching longhorn football. Or posting on this board. I don’t delude myself into thinking it makes a difference. I do it because it’s amusing. 

It's not hard to understand, but it's pretty shitty when you chide others for discussing exercising their right to vote even though the candidates may not be ideal.

[tx 3 putt 78470]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

 

 

85, retire mother fucker !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bullneck 19454]

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It's not hard to understand, but it's pretty shitty when you chide others for discussing exercising their right to vote even though the candidates may not be ideal.

I never chided anyone. I said that the fate of the free world doesn’t hang on anyone’s individual decision to vote or not to vote, or who to vote for. Period. Full stop. Anyone can do whatever they see fit. If that’s assign cosmic importance to their vote fine!  If it’s voting occasionally and only for someone they really like that’s great too. People died to give us the right to vote, not to require us to do so  

[StassneyHorn 6755]

Using a football analogy, I know it’s CR, Hegar is the hot Wildcard team with momentum that will make it to the Conference Championship. Is John Cornyn the Falcons?

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

Just now, StassneyHorn said:

Using a football analogy, I know it’s CR, Hegar is the hot Wildcard team with momentum that will make it to the Conference Championship. Is John Cornyn the Falcons?

So, at this point does the money even matter?  If I sent a buck to a senatorial campaign right now do they even have time to get it into play in an attempt to shape the race?  It seems very late- what are they spending unexpected donations on right now in a typical campaign? 

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

I refuse to call these October surprises, but Thom Tillis just had it exposed that his ex-wife claimed “cruel and inhuman treatment” in their divorce proceedings. No specifics, but that reasoning has to include one of domestic violence, adultery, emotional or verbal abuse, or sexual assault In the state of Tennessee where they divorced. So yea... run a woman next time.

I get the Dems and left hitting back with the personal stuff coming out about Cal, but it's sort of a weak.  It's from over 40 years ago to his first wife, which was very brief.  I'm not defending Tillis as he needs to go, but in comparison to the current shit show Cunningham has brought on himself, it's fairly..... soft.

 

[StassneyHorn 6755]

This last week before the floodgates open up for in person early voting makes a difference IMO. The last couple weeks of a campaign you’re raising money to pay off any campaign loans or debt so this is the last week of effectual spending (Unless you’re Bloomberg). When you announce a big number like this, and the opposing campaign responds with “Oh Shit!” it activates special interest groups but specifically this cycle, Joe Biden’s mini investment bank, to open the purse. The downballot effect should be there, but I have no insight into how big that effect could be.

Hope there was no typos and made sense

[StassneyHorn 6755]

1 minute ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I get the Dems and left hitting back with the personal stuff coming out about Cal, but it's sort of a weak.  It's from over 40 years ago to his first wife, which was very brief.  I'm not defending Tillis as he needs to go, but in comparison to the current shit show Cunningham has brought on himself, it's fairly..... soft.

 

Yea, gotta have a response though. If anything it makes it a net negative for both campaigns for Senate downballot, with the obvious decency “fuckup” to Cal.  Between Joe and Donald, which is the main turnout draw, they’re not turning their nose to Biden.

[yoladu 4187]

5 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

I refuse to call these October surprises, but Thom Tillis just had it exposed that his ex-wife claimed “cruel and inhuman treatment” in their divorce proceedings. No specifics, but that reasoning has to include one of domestic violence, adultery, emotional or verbal abuse, or sexual assault In the state of Tennessee where they divorced. So yea... run a woman next time.

Also Bollier’s Republican opponent in the Kansas Senate election performed abortions, at least for a woman that had an ectopic pregnancy. That shouldn’t be a big deal and to shit on someone for that sucks, but Kansas pro life groups think differently.

for an ectopic pregnancy? jeez. Untreated, that is a doomed fertilized egg that will ultimately kill the mother.

ectopic literally means "out of place". it's not going to survive implanted in the fallopian tube..

Edited October 8, 2020 by yoladu

[Bama Chick 28596]

“performed abortions at least for a woman that had an ectopic pregnancy”

 

Did he perform multiple abortions or just ones for women with ectopic pregnancies?

 

I have no issue with either case but if he’s running as a pro-life Republican then yeah, that’s going to be an issue with some voters.

 

And I’m guessing this was a thing in his primary race and it’s just carrying over to the general?

 

I can’t imagine a Democratic woman candidate making that a thing but I could see PACs or her campaign anonymously pushing that to try and depress turnout of evangelicals.

[shnsajax 3605]

13 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

wait wait wait, you are telling me his wife was hospitalized for 6 months, and has had to undergo physical and speech therapy for the last 9 years, and he didn't leave her as soon as something better came along?

That sounds downright decent, almost maybe like true love. Family man with family values.

Hard to believe, huh GOP?

 

Well I mean he spent like an entire year in space and its hard to put the pussy on a pedistal when it just keeps floating away. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

In talking with some conservative friends, they seem to be convinced that Trump has lost and that the gop needs to only focus on retaining the senate.

from a strategic perspective, I agree the gop and it’s donors should shift and do anything possible to keep a 51 majority in the senate. Otherwise they will see everything Mitch did thrown back in their face. And this includes possible court packing, which is entirely acceptable under the constitution.

collins, Tillis, Ernst and daines (mt) are all possible wins for the gop. If the gop wins 3 of them, and everything else goes according to expectations, Mitch has 51.

but if the gop loses 3 of the 4, then Schumer has the 51 and can afford to lose joe manchin on some votes.

[StassneyHorn 6755]

7 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

“performed abortions at least for a woman that had an ectopic pregnancy”

 

Did he perform multiple abortions or just ones for women with ectopic pregnancies?

 

And I’m guessing this was a thing in his primary race and it’s just carrying over to the general?

 

Sorry that was my grammar mistake, changed the entire meaning. He had performed the procedure specifically for ectopic pregnancies, nothing similar outside that narrow scope. Most (99%) people would be A-OK with it. A woman who had the procedure in 2000 was shocked about his stance on Roe V Wade and how it could negatively affect  procedures like that which saved her life and she immediately thought back to her experience. Kris Kobach has a Super PAC that hit him on that in his Republican primary. She has mainly taken to social media herself to show the complexities of the debate and the “all or nothing” approach muddies the waters. 

First 3-4 paragraphs sum it up https://patch.com/kansas/across-ks/medical-document-shows-marshall-s-notes-terminated-pregnancy?utm_term=politics+%26+government

Edited October 8, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Doc Sam Beckett 5854]

Thom Tillis, known as Mr Mask, as we call him. And by the way, I think he's going to win now, his opponent had not one but two affairs. Very bad timing. But Mr Mask got it! It happens

- Donald right now on some Fox News show

 

[Left Coast 879]

43 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Thom Tillis, known as Mr Mask, as we call him. And by the way, I think he's going to win now, his opponent had not one but two affairs. Very bad timing. But Mr Mask got it! It happens

- Donald right now on some Fox News show

 

Well if there’s one thing Don would know, it’s how to time an affair.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Sobato was on the edge of moving Cunningham to leans D, but isn't because of the affair.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-just-weeks-to-go-trump-is-not-making-up-ground/ 

Quote

The Senate

While we have rating changes in a trio of states, we’ll start with one race we’re not moving. In North Carolina — which we’d seen as arguably the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity, aside from the races that the Crystal Ball already has them favored in — the Democratic nominee, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, was put on the defensive last week when text messages emerged indicating that he had engaged in an extramarital affair.

For now, we’re leaving the race as a Toss-up. A handful of polls conducted during and/or after the story emerged have not shown much difference from previous iterations of the same polls, and Cunningham generally still leads first-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). So this could be a case of the electorate being too polarized and/or too desensitized to care about a candidate’s personal scandals.

As of Friday, more than 300,000 early votes had already been cast in North Carolina, so both sides are starting to bank votes (for reference, in 2016, the state cast 4.7 million ballots).

Still, with the Army Reserve looking into this — Cunningham is a lieutenant colonel in the reserve — the situation seems fluid. Though the news doesn’t seem to have hampered Cunningham’s prospects yet, if it keeps escalating, at some point it may just become too much to sustain. Republicans are already working to make the story stick.

The revelations about Cunningham’s texts came on Friday evening — for state political observers, it was a development that concluded an already-eventful week in the race. On Thursday, before the two candidates squared off in their final debate, the Cunningham campaign announced it raised $28 million in the third quarter, shattering previous records. Then on Friday, Tillis announced he was diagnosed with COVID-19.

Ironically, after nominating women candidates exclusively in the four Senate races from 2008 to 2016, North Carolina Democrats are once again running a male candidate. After news of the texts broke, Cunningham was quickly compared to the state’s last male Democratic senator — John Edwards, whose electoral career was also rocked by an extramarital affair.

The bottom line in North Carolina is that we had been very tempted to move the race to Leans Democratic. The emergence of this scandal makes us glad we held off, as it is the sort of thing that could eventually undo Cunningham’s campaign (though it is not guaranteed to).

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

it's going to stink if we can't find one out of NC, SC, GA, MT, IA

 

 

[SydneyCarton 49325]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's going to stink if we can't find one out of NC, SC, GA, MT, IA

 

 

Start trying to get yourself excited about SC and IA, I guess. 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Start trying to get yourself excited about SC and IA, I guess. 

I am still far from convinced that this Cunningham thing is going to be meaningful in this environment.  There's a whole lot of freak-out and not just a whole lot of polling data to justify that freak-out.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I am still far from convinced that this Cunningham thing is going to be meaningful in this environment.  There's a whole lot of freak-out and not just a whole lot of polling data to justify that freak-out.

these are instant reactions. polls won't let you know for a while.  if you had to rank likelihood right now, where would you put it?

me:

IA, NC, SC, MT, GA

whereas before it was

NC >> IA, SC, MT, GA

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's going to stink if we can't find one out of NC, SC, GA, MT, IA

 

 

Iowa seems to be looking better for Dems and Trump doesn’t seem to be playing his ads there right now either.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

these are instant reactions. polls won't let you know for a while.  if you had to rank likelihood right now, where would you put it?

me:

IA, NC, SC, MT, GA

whereas before it was

NC >> IA, SC, MT, GA

I would still have North Carolina as a higher likelihood than Iowa.  Recent polling makes me very bullish on Iowa--Greenfield is running a really strong camapign there.  But I still think our odds in North Carolina are higher for a couple reasons:

1) Trump is polling a bit worse in North Carolina than he is in Iowa.  And I don't think that there are going to be enough ticket-splitters out there to make a difference.  Beyond that, North Carolina has a gubernatorial race in which the D is kicking the shit out of the R.  So I think there are a lot more coattails to get Cunningham over the line than what Greenfield has.

2) As a smaller, more homogenous state, the power of incumbency is stronger in Iowa.  There's a fair amount of study on this.  But essentially, incumbency is a bigger advantage the smaller the state.  So for that reason alone, I would favor Ernst's chances over Tillis's, all other things being equal.

[StassneyHorn 6755]

😂 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

That is perfect for her. Totally fits.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Loeffler must have been privy to some information ahead of time about how Pence was going to do in the debate.

[thepop 4418]

Posting this here for more traction, but it's time to focus on state house races instead of the national senate races. They have enough money.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fuckgerry2020

[ndawg 1242]

I wonder what she uses to notate the non-generic tweets. "Batshit?"

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Iowa seems to be looking better for Dems and Trump doesn’t seem to be playing his ads there right now either.

Many of the EC maps tell me that IA doesn’t matter much for trump. The 6 votes wouldnt be a tipping point. My guess is that Trump and team have identified 1 or 2 paths to victory and won’t try much else.  Ernst is on her own.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Many of the EC maps tell me that IA doesn’t matter much for trump. The 6 votes wouldnt be a tipping point. My guess is that Trump and team have identified 1 or 2 paths to victory and won’t try much else.  Ernst is on her own.

This exactly. Same reason why they pulled out of Ohio. If they lose Ohio then they lost PA/WI/MI and there's not a path to victory. Their only chance is to thread the exact same needle as last time by winning two of the rust belt. He should be purely focused on PA/MI/WI and he is, with a little bit of Florida sprinkled in because Biden has him on defense there. They're shooting for basically the exact same map as 2016.

It makes sense and it's the right strategy. Pray it doesn't work.

Edited October 9, 2020 by BradInATX

[Neonmoon 38130]

Little birdie saw Cornyn at the doctors office. Little birdie was getting a covid test. Assumed Cornyn was too. 

[Hank Scorpio 17924]

I don’t think small birds should be getting COVID tests. 

[tx 3 putt 78470]

On 10/7/2020 at 9:08 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Using a football analogy, I know it’s CR, Hegar is the hot Wildcard team with momentum that will make it to the Conference Championship. Is John Cornyn the Falcons?

 

he's just trolling for $$$

[atomheartbevo 90546]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I don’t think small birds should be getting COVID tests. 

Apparently minks should be.  

[Ted Lange 16353]