2020 Senate Elections

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

What if Trump’s people have decided he’s going to lose, and they are trying to hold the Senate, even if the margin is razor-thin.  Where do they spend?

Hell, what’s the point of holding the Senate, putting aside ideology, judicial appointments, and carrying out the wishes of the money men - can a Republican  Senate protect Trump in any way, post-inauguration?  They can’t stop the House from going in dry.  They can’t stop the DOJ either.

If he’s truly focusing on electoral, and is willing to sacrifice the Senate, well a Dem House and Senate spells the end for him.

Just spitballing - the changes they are making in spending are odd. 

[Patrick Bateman 3,966]

A lot of undecided so a toss up but still interesting to see.

Feels like the GOP is conceding here.  Maybe not James, but Trump.

[Your Mom 4,956]

16 hours ago, thepop said:

Posting this here for more traction, but it's time to focus on state house races instead of the national senate races. They have enough money.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fuckgerry2020

Just getting this on the new page.

[Pescado_Rojo 19,558]

I feel like if we get to a point on election night that they are calling a D senate win in Kansas, then the rout is on and we're just running up the score. 

[Gap03 3,374]

3 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I feel like if we get to a point on election night that they are calling a D senate win in Kansas, then the rout is on and we're just running up the score. 

The Dems really need to get to 51 because I just don't think they can really rely on Manchin for anything significant.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,707]

8 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

The Dems really need to get to 51 because I just don't think they can really rely on Manchin for anything significant.

Also gives Manchin (& others) cover if they want to vote on the other side for election purposes.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

What if Trump’s people have decided he’s going to lose, and they are trying to hold the Senate, even if the margin is razor-thin.  Where do they spend?

Hell, what’s the point of holding the Senate, putting aside ideology, judicial appointments, and carrying out the wishes of the money men - can a Republican  Senate protect Trump in any way, post-inauguration?  They can’t stop the House from going in dry.  They can’t stop the DOJ either.

If he’s truly focusing on electoral, and is willing to sacrifice the Senate, well a Dem House and Senate spells the end for him.

Just spitballing - the changes they are making in spending are odd. 

I think they will go for the Senate but if they believe it's going to be close then they will opt for the plan laid out above where they bankrupt enough to make it worse than 2008 so they can install their autocrat in the next cycle. We're just too stupid to learn. I tried and tried to educate folks I know but certain buzz words like tax cut and socialism rattle around in their brains like ping pong Powerballs and they elect those GOPrs the next cycle cause they're certain they're going to win the lottery.

[Chuckie Finster 22,978]

Lindsey Graham is refusing to take a COVID test before his debate tonight and Harrison has said he will not participate unless he does. Graham is blasting Harrison for “requesting special treatment” or some shit.
I have never loathed a politician more, and that includes the current occupant of the White House.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/08/alaska-senate-race-spending-428257
 

could Alaska start becoming competitive?  Or are democrats just trying to spread the republicans resources out?

[kevwun 16,269]

They have so much money this year and they're spreading it out.  Also because Trump is historically unpopular.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

I feel like the Ds should be able to get over the hump on at least one this year just based on the anomalies that are popping up that all seem to favor democrats.  Approvals from women are sliding down a cliff--maybe the election is at a time when they are 10 points further down the cliff.  Maybe Trump's erraticness will make two or three percent more of the rural vote say WTF is going on.  Maybe 2018 was good practice for the youths and they now have even more wrinkles ironed out and can vote even more.  Maybe he just keeps hemorrhaging* support even more over the next 4 weeks as he looks sicker or some other senior person gets sick.

 

*ty spell check

[kevwun 16,269]

There are a bunch of rural counties in Texas that usually go somewhere from 85-90% Republican in a general election.  I think it is possible that Trump could lose 10% off that in a lot of those counties.  I haven't sat down to do the math, but I have the feeling that would make it uncomfortably close for him in Texas with a fair chance at tipping it to Biden.

[thepop 4,418]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

that doesn't mean anything, does it?  won't the loeffler + collins vote just swamp warnock in the run off?  what am i missing here that make people think that is interesting?

[StassneyHorn 6,755]

Warnock was outside the top 2 for awhile because Lieberman was drinking dumb bitch juice and thought he had a chance. The name of the game is to be top 2 for the runoff. Assuming a Loeffler voter will go for Collins or a Collins voter to Loeffler is a mistake, they appeal to different factions of the party. Before Liberman’s support dropped, it would’ve been a runoff with 2 Republicans. Also the runoff is set to become a fairly nationalized race and if GA goes Blue in Presidential the push will be substantial.

Edited October 9, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[DanRydell 799]

36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

that doesn't mean anything, does it?  won't the loeffler + collins vote just swamp warnock in the run off?  what am i missing here that make people think that is interesting?

Runoffs are like specials in that they're all about turnout so I think the hope is for a reverse 2010 Scott Brown situation.

[thepop 4,418]

45 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

that doesn't mean anything, does it?  won't the loeffler + collins vote just swamp warnock in the run off?  what am i missing here that make people think that is interesting?

There was a time when Lieberman was preventing Warnock of making the top 2

[tx 3 putt 78,470]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

There are a bunch of rural counties in Texas that usually go somewhere from 85-90% Republican in a general election.  I think it is possible that Trump could lose 10% off that in a lot of those counties.  I haven't sat down to do the math, but I have the feeling that would make it uncomfortably close for him in Texas with a fair chance at tipping it to Biden.

 

 

austin / dfw / hou / sa voter surge is going to be eye opening and a heavy D lean 

[Gap03 3,374]

11 minutes ago, DanRydell said:

Runoffs are like specials in that they're all about turnout so I think the hope is for a reverse 2010 Scott Brown situation.

My understanding is the runoff will be held at the start of January, and intervening events (including Coney Barrett's appointment and the ACA case before the Supreme Court) may help drive Democratic turnout in an election where Trump will not be on the ballot.  Not sure if it will be enough to overcome the apparent R lean in GA, but who knows.

[Dahobbs 18,190]

56 minutes ago, thepop said:

 

20% undecided? 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,558]

1 minute ago, Gap03 said:

My understanding is the runoff will be held at the start of January, and intervening events (including Coney Barrett's appointment and the ACA case before the Supreme Court) may help drive Democratic turnout in an election where Trump will not be on the ballot.  Not sure if it will be enough to overcome the apparent R lean voter suppression in GA, but who knows.

FIFY

Rolling power outages, "warrant checks", DWI Checkpoints, unannounced poll closures, "malfunctioning" machines, etc. 

[thepop 4,418]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

20% undecided? 

somehow yes

[Zonahorn 8,079]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

FIFY

Rolling power outages, "warrant checks", DWI Checkpoints, unannounced poll closures, "malfunctioning" machines, etc. 

And what is anybody supposed to do about it except vote? This repeated talking point is some of the worst messaging liberals have in 2020

[Errestaurants 2,570]

11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

austin / dfw / hou / sa voter surge is going to be eye opening and a heavy D lean 

I see where you're going with this and don't disagree but in DFW only Dallas County is solidly blue certainly not Tarrant and its surrounding counties like Parker, Johnson, etc. Pretty sure even Collin, Denton, Rockwall are pretty red. 

[Dahobbs 18,190]

3 minutes ago, Errestaurants said:

I see where you're going with this and don't disagree but in DFW only Dallas County is solidly blue certainly not Tarrant and its surrounding counties like Parker, Johnson, etc. Pretty sure even Collin, Denton, Rockwall are pretty red. 

Beto won Tarrant county (barely). Just saying. 

[bluto 4,980]

I see where you're going with this and don't disagree but in DFW only Dallas County is solidly blue certainly not Tarrant and its surrounding counties like Parker, Johnson, etc. Pretty sure even Collin, Denton, Rockwall are pretty red. 

Rockwall is about as red as you can get, 70% in 16 and 18

[StassneyHorn 6,755]

Collin and Denton were 53% and 54%. 

[Errestaurants 2,570]

I live in far southern Denton County and for every 10 Trump signs I see 1 Biden. That's my professional scientific polling from DFW for you all. 

My ranch in Kaufman/Henderson counties is about as pro Trump you can get. That will be $9.95. 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I feel like the Ds should be able to get over the hump on at least one this year just based on the anomalies that are popping up that all seem to favor democrats.

Think about what they did in 2018 with the House.  Now think about all of the shit that has happened since 2018.

[Ghost of LL 15,664]

4 hours ago, Gap03 said:

The Dems really need to get to 51 because I just don't think they can really rely on Manchin for anything significant.

I might posit that 51 gets you 52.

If the Democrats get rid of the filibuster--and they almost certainly will--then being in the minority in the Senate will become almost as useless as being in the minority in the House.  And that may be the push that Lisa Murkowski needs to become an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

I honestly think she's just had it with the GOP.  And she has that seat for life--she can do whatever the fuck she wants.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

There are a bunch of rural counties in Texas that usually go somewhere from 85-90% Republican in a general election.  I think it is possible that Trump could lose 10% off that in a lot of those counties.  I haven't sat down to do the math, but I have the feeling that would make it uncomfortably close for him in Texas with a fair chance at tipping it to Biden.

Plenty of those folks were hurt by Trump's little spats with other countries, and Trump hasn't been out there talking about what he's going to actually do for their bank accounts lately, and there's probably a double-digit percentage that will vote with their wallet.  Not to mention the spouses who are pissed off for one reason or another - declining household income, covid stuff, etc..

Some of those older folks also used to be Democrats until the mid-to-late 1990s.  Granted, I don't necessarily see them swinging back but I also don't see them being too motivated if they are worse off now than they were four years ago.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

51 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Assuming a Loeffler voter will go for Collins or a Collins voter to Loeffler is a mistake, they appeal to different factions of the party

Agreed, that fight is pretty damned vicious, and only going to get more vicious.  Collins had that seat within his reach, and he's pissed that some fucking Qanon idiot is going to knock him out.  He will absolutely take her down if she costs him his chance.

 

[StassneyHorn 6,755]

There’s also the chance that if Trump loses and Loeffler advances, nontraditional Trump Republican voters quit caring and the turnout is depressed against a highly enthusiastic Dem base and black voters in the state.

Edited October 9, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

SIAP. Poetic irony as Lindsey was in the AF.

 

[G650 14,421]

Oh Sweet Lady G

[Patrick Bateman 3,966]

 

[SizzleChest 8,302]

No shit, Nate.

 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5,164]

On 10/8/2020 at 10:11 AM, Ghost of LL said:

I am still far from convinced that this Cunningham thing is going to be meaningful in this environment.  There's a whole lot of freak-out and not just a whole lot of polling data to justify that freak-out.

Also, there's a whole lot of people that already voted.  My boss is in NC and he'd already sent his ballot back before this news even broke.  

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

He's going to be a sad sad boy if he has the COVID.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

Debate going virtual:

 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

15 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Debate going virtual:

 

That would be, what we call, checkmate. 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

I might have to watch that debate now. Gonna be fun watching Harrison eviscerate Lady G on a TV screen from a TV screen.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

that doesn't mean anything, does it?  won't the loeffler + collins vote just swamp warnock in the run off?  what am i missing here that make people think that is interesting?

In the first round, democrats just want to get a candidate to make it to the next round of voting.

also..... we would like to knock out Collins who is a very extreme Trump conspiracy psycho kind of guy. 
 

if the November 4th election goes poorly for republicans, I could see a scenario where they have depressed turnout in January  because they just lost and don’t want to think about politics for awhile.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

6 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I might have to watch that debate now. Gonna be fun watching Harrison eviscerate Lady G on a TV screen from a TV screen.

It is airing on C-SPAN this weekend, and also Hegar v Cornyn is this evening but I don't know if there will be video later.

Edited October 9, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
Messed up the video info.

[thepop 4,418]

[tx 3 putt 78,470]

3 hours ago, kevwun said:

There are a bunch of rural counties in Texas that usually go somewhere from 85-90% Republican in a general election.

 

there's not alot of votes sitting on the bench out there. the urban areas, across the US house the hidden 'majority'. imo 

[Ghost of LL 15,664]

6 minutes ago, thepop said:

By the way--have we heard any news recently about Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, or Bill Barr?

[StassneyHorn 6,755]

7pm debate between Cornyn and Hegar.
 

Cornyn will lie about protecting prexisting conditions. Hegar will go into her bootless spinelicker or spineless boots routine and he’ll counter with the violin music and Jenna’s law. Hegar will bring up helicopters and tattoos. We’ll all be worse off, but I’ll be wasted. Happy Friday!

[burntorangebongos 10,809]

Bullshit, she has more to offer than her military background. You can prepare yourself to be underwhelmed but get back to us with your impression after listening to her. She has the earnest energy of an organized soccer league mom and a badass determined hunter.  It is a good combo that I want working for Texas. 

[StassneyHorn 6,755]

You had me for a second. Maybe she can break a bottle over her head and tell us biker stories about some guy named Sid with a rattlesnake tattoo.

Im gonna look for Amanda Edwards on Hinge.

Edited October 9, 2020 by StassneyHorn