2020 Senate Elections

[Bateshorn 9899]

Peoples internals are coming back bad. 
 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Peoples internals are coming back bad. 
 

That's my take-away, too.  Not that Ben Sasse is going to lose (although John Cornyn conceivably could).  It's more that they see that Trump is going down and they want to position themselves and the GOP for the post-Trump reality. 

And part of that means denouncing Trump's manifold abuses of power.  Because if the Democrats don't win the Senate, you're going to see Biden use Trump's playbook to move money around the federal budget without congressional approval.  And since the Supreme Court already signed off on it, there's not going to be a damned thing the GOP can do about it.

[SydneyCarton 47879]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's my take-away, too.  Not that Ben Sasse is going to lose (although John Cornyn conceivably could).  It's more that they see that Trump is going down and they want to position themselves and the GOP for the post-Trump reality. 

And part of that means denouncing Trump's manifold abuses of power.  Because if the Democrats don't win the Senate, you're going to see Biden use Trump's playbook to move money around the federal budget without congressional approval.  And since the Supreme Court already signed off on it, there's not going to be a damned thing the GOP can do about it.

Yeah I don’t think Biden will do thay. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

4 hours ago, Goredho said:

The best indicator that Trump is going to lose are these Rs spontaneously developing a conscience.

Not to mention....

after 3 and a half years of “ partying like it’s 1959” the GOP all of a sudden seems to care about the national deficit again. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Just got a text from Doug -

[SydneyCarton 47879]

1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:

Just got a text from Doug -

Looks like the emails I get telling me that McGrath is tied with McConell. 

[thepop 4409]

Saying “I’m down 12 points” wouldn’t be a good fundraising strategy.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah I don’t think Biden will do thay. 

Under ordinary circumstance, I would agree with you.  But during a national emergency, with the economy crashing and McConnell unwilling to allow any stimulus because of some newfound concern over the deficit, I think Biden absolutely would be willing to do that.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

Just got a text from Doug -

Serious question- do you absolutely in any way believe this to be true?

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

There's just no way. I hope I'm wrong. 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Lindsey Graham vs Jaime harrison is actually interesting although I expect Graham to win by 2-3%.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

The Cornyn turning against Trump is telling. He obviously is not worried about the scenario of both of them winning which could effectively push Cornyn to be a back-bencher.

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[lemonlime 5503]

 

[Texas73 420]

3 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

/it's happening

[thepop 4409]

5 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

/it's happening

 

[SizzleChest 8275]

7 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

/it's in no way happening

FIFY.

[Texas73 420]

30 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

FIFY.

Right. Only when pig's fly.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

2 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Lindsey Graham vs Jaime harrison is actually interesting although I expect Graham to win by 2-3%.

I’m calling it graham by 6 or 7. Trump by 11 in South Carolina. I know that would be more than the polls say-  but I think that there’s some GOP that comes home there. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[thepop 4409]

 

[Brisketexan 104613]

I’m calling it graham by 6 or 7. Trump by 11 in South Carolina. I know that would be more than the polls say-  but I think that there’s some GOP that comes home there. 

You’re sounding like me. Conclude that the Trunpkins will ALWAYS come back to the roost, knock 3-4 pts off the current polling margins and...say it with me....toss up.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

You’re sounding like me. Conclude that the Trunpkins will ALWAYS come back to the roost, knock 3-4 pts off the current polling margins and...say it with me....toss up.

It’s not a toss up dude. South Carolina is a very red state. It will likely break toward Graham. The US isn’t red like South Carolina- and the places Trump needs to win in the Midwest are blue. It’s an easy 330-200 type win. Will look like Obama’s 2012 map. 

[Sawbonz 27434]

9 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah I don’t think Biden will do thay. 

The executive does not yield back power ceded to it by the legislative. If Biden wins and the GOP keeps the senate they will play ball or reap the whirlwind 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

The executive does not yield back power ceded to it by the legislative. If Biden wins and the GOP keeps the senate they will play ball or reap the whirlwind 

That’s so fucked up and not how it’s supposed to be. I say that not caring at all about partisanship or who is ratfucking who but as a matter of principle. 

[Brisketexan 104613]

That’s so fucked up and not how it’s supposed to be. I say that not caring at all about partisanship or who is ratfucking who but as a matter of principle. 

Principles? You’re fucking ADORABLE.

They’re dead. Dead, burned, and the ashes shot into space. Thank your party for that, they get the lion’s share of the credit.

That’s why so many of us left and will never, ever, vote for s single one of them again. Every decent principle they supposedly espoused? They couldn’t chuck them in the trash can fast enough as they knelt to fellate orange mushroom dick.

And yeah, it’s fucking bad when it descends into “nothing matters but power.” Some of us yelled as loud as we could to wave off your party from making that the carved-in-stone law of the land. But they did it eagerly, with frenzied joy. They did this. You did this (because you openly concede you’ll still support the party - nobody believes your “oh, I won’t support the Trumpkins among them”....because they’re ALL Trumpkins, and when they say they aren’t in a few years, they’ll be lying....and you’ll lap it up). And you dare to lament the death of “principles?” Bitch please.

[Sawbonz 27434]

31 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s so fucked up and not how it’s supposed to be. I say that not caring at all about partisanship or who is ratfucking who but as a matter of principle. 

It’s not a partisan issue. It’s human nature. It’s why the founders gave the house the power of the purse.  But for the last 40 years at least they’ve been more worried about getting re elected than they have been about governing. Every executive since Reagan has seized a little more power. W and then Obama used legitimate crises to push the envelope and then Trump took it to 11

Biden will do whatever is in his power to unfuck things in the near term but likely at the longterm cost of further consolidating power in the executive 

 

[atomheartbevo 89439]

9 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Under ordinary circumstance, I would agree with you.  But during a national emergency, with the economy crashing and McConnell unwilling to allow any stimulus because of some newfound concern over the deficit, I think Biden absolutely would be willing to do that.

If the economy is crashing and covid is still a thing, Mitch will cave on stimulus, because if he retains the Senate, it's going to be by a slim margin, and Mitch and the Republicans proudly yelling from the rooftops "no stimulus for you" will not resonate well come 2022.

Mitch is all about power.  He will give in on stimulus if he thinks he can use it to hold on until 2022 or 2024.

Edited October 20, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/
 

election expert Sabato has moved Iowa senate from toss up to leans democrat. It looks like Iowa could save the day and still get the democrats that coveted 50th senate seat if Cunningham chokes it away by not being able to keep his pants on.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

fuckin a.  that is huge.  i didn't even knw ernst was in trouble until about a month ago.

[thepop 4409]

I know it won’t be the reason but I wish the soybean thing was the reason she lost.

[Hmbre97 6297]

13 minutes ago, thepop said:

I know it won’t be the reason but I wish the soybean thing was the reason she lost.

[quigley 1527]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/
 

election expert Sabato has moved Iowa senate from toss up to leans democrat. It looks like Iowa could save the day and still get the democrats that coveted 50th senate seat if Cunningham chokes it away by not being able to keep his pants on.

Unfortunately, not so fast.

A Democrat from Michigan should have no trouble this cycle, but here we are. If the Dems don't control the Senate in 2021, Peters in Michigan may share blame with Cunningham. Peters will hopefully hang on this time but needs to announce his retirement in 2025.

Edited October 20, 2020 by quigley

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, quigley said:

Unfortunately, not so fast.

A Democrat from Michigan should have no trouble this cycle, but here we are. If the Dems don't control the Senate in 2021, Peters in Michigan may share blame with Cunningham. Peters will hopefully hang on this time but needs to announce his retirement in 2025.

Peters is a worthless sniveling little turd. He reminds me of worm tail or Peter pettigrew from the potter books. I think Biden will be strong enough to carry Peters over the line just based on the partisanship of the state. Hopefully it’s Peters last election.

[Dnaguy 11775]

12 hours ago, lemonlime said:

 

 

11 hours ago, thepop said:

 

[Bateshorn 9899]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If the economy is crashing and covid is still a thing, Mitch will cave on stimulus, because if he retains the Senate, it's going to be by a slim margin, and Mitch and the Republicans proudly yelling from the rooftops "no stimulus for you" will not resonate well come 2022.

Mitch is all about power.  He will give in on stimulus if he thinks he can use it to hold on until 2022 or 2024.

Oh my sweet summer child.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

8 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

It’s not a partisan issue. It’s human nature. It’s why the founders gave the house the power of the purse.  But for the last 40 years at least they’ve been more worried about getting re elected than they have been about governing. Every executive since Reagan has seized a little more power. W and then Obama used legitimate crises to push the envelope and then Trump took it to 11

Biden will do whatever is in his power to unfuck things in the near term but likely at the longterm cost of further consolidating power in the executive 

 

I’m aware. 

[atomheartbevo 89439]

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Peters is a worthless sniveling little turd. He reminds me of worm tail or Peter pettigrew from the potter books. I think Biden will be strong enough to carry Peters over the line just based on the partisanship of the state. Hopefully it’s Peters last election.

Username checks out.

[gmr548 16513]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/
 
election expert Sabato has moved Iowa senate from toss up to leans democrat. It looks like Iowa could save the day and still get the democrats that coveted 50th senate seat if Cunningham chokes it away by not being able to keep his pants on.

I didn't realize how far behind Trump Ernst appears to be running in the polls. That's very odd.

[Bateshorn 9899]

16 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/
 
election expert Sabato has moved Iowa senate from toss up to leans democrat. It looks like Iowa could save the day and still get the democrats that coveted 50th senate seat if Cunningham chokes it away by not being able to keep his pants on.

I didn't realize how far behind Trump Ernst appears to be running in the polls. That's very odd.

Misogyny doesn't just happen to Democrats.

[gmr548 16513]

Misogyny doesn't just happen to Democrats.

Her opponent is a woman though. You'd think that's a mitigating factor when it comes to that.

The polls basically have 5-10 percent of the Iowa electorate voting for Trump but turning around and voting for a Democratic senator. That really doesn't pass the smell test.

[Bateshorn 9899]

That's a good point. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Serious question- do you absolutely in any way believe this to be true?

Yes. Go back and look at the Jones/Moore special election thread - I was predicting a Jones win before the “Roy Moore is a filthy freak” news broke.

And I have been riding around this week looking for houses for sale and I have been absolutely flabbergasted by the number of Jones and Biden signs in my town.

Like, 10 to 1 compared to Trump signs and I haven’t seen a single Tuberville sign.

There were zero Clinton signs in 2016 and very few Jones signs during the special election.

And this Twitter thread covers the latest about Tuberville’s shady past and it’s getting a ton of play all over the state.

Anecdotally, I see energized Democrats and Republicans who are either opting out this election or splitting their votes Trump/Jones.

As the election gets closer I think a lot of Alabamians are nervous about being a national laughingstock for actually electing a football coach.

We’re very sensitive about always being the punchline and butt of the joke about stupid southerners. We’re a prideful bunch.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:

Yes. Go back and look at the Jones/Moore special election thread - I was predicting a Jones win before the “Roy Moore is a filthy freak” news broke.

And I have been riding around this week looking for houses for sale and I have been absolutely flabbergasted by the number of Jones and Biden signs in my town.

Like, 10 to 1 compared to Trump signs and I haven’t seen a single Tuberville sign.

There were zero Clinton signs in 2016 and very few Jones signs during the special election.

And this Twitter thread covers the latest about Tuberville’s shady past and it’s getting a ton of play all over the state.

 

 

 

Anecdotally, I see energized Democrats and Republicans who are either opting out this election or splitting their votes Trump/Jones.

As the election gets closer I think a lot of Alabamians are nervous about being a national laughingstock for actually electing a football coach.

We’re very sensitive about always being the punchline and butt of the joke about stupid southerners. We’re a prideful bunch.

 

 

So, you’ve given in to full on delusion then? That’s cool. And btw- I had Jones winning the special too, as did most people with sense. And based upon the margin and Moore’s collapse in support after the underage girl thing you were off in thinking he was going to win before that. Unless you think that literally moved the polls zero. 
 

the only question in that race isn’t who wins or loses it’s whether it’s tubs by a figgie, a TD, or both. I’m betting tuns by 10. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Her opponent is a woman though. You'd think that's a mitigating factor when it comes to that.

The polls basically have 5-10 percent of the Iowa electorate voting for Trump but turning around and voting for a Democratic senator. That really doesn't pass the smell test.

Agreed. She’s not spectacularly out of the Iowa GOP mainstream crazy for that to happen. I fully expect the winner of the senate to come from the same party as the winner of the presidential in IA. Unless it’s less than 1% in the presidential. There won’t be a 5-7 point erosion there. No way. 

[Gil Bang 25898]

12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not a toss up dude. South Carolina is a very red state. It will likely break toward Graham. The US isn’t red like South Carolina- and the places Trump needs to win in the Midwest are blue. It’s an easy 330-200 type win. Will look like Obama’s 2012 map. 

SC is about 27% black.  If the dems can get the blacks to turn out, it's a difference-maker. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

8 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

SC is about 27% black.  If the dems can get the blacks to turn out, it's a difference-maker. 

Here’s the problem for them... the more they juice their black turnout the more that juices white turnout on the other side to vote against them. 
that’s what you are seeing in the polls recently in SC imo- polls showed tightening, people said- we might elect a democrat?  Better hold my nose and vote for graham. Imo. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

for understanding of SC, 538 breaks down the state as technically close to being a swing state BUT the white GOP voters rarely or never switch to Dem even for a single race: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-did-lindsey-graham-end-up-in-such-a-close-race/

Quote

South Carolina is not that Republican-leaning

The polls suggest that at least 45 percent of voters in South Carolina back Harrison, and that’s not an unusually high number for a Democrat running in the Palmetto State. Forty-five percent of South Carolinians voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and 44 percent did in 2012.1 In 2018, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in South Carolina received 46 percent of the vote, and the Democratic attorney general candidate 45 percent. Joe Biden seems likely to get at least 45 percent of the state’s vote too.

The reason: The makeup of South Carolina’s electorate is relatively good for Democrats (up to a point). The electorate is about 28 percent Black — a higher percentage than every other state save Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland and Mississippi. (About 28 percent of Alabama’s voters are Black too.) And South Carolina has a higher percentage of white voters with college degrees (27 percent) than all of those states but Maryland (29 percent).2 Put those two groups together and you have the conditions for a sizable Democratic vote.

but the following is good for the gop but bad for dems:

Quote

We in the political media (myself included) talk and write a lot about demographic groups, particularly the education divide: white voters without a college degree increasingly lean Republican and white voters with college degrees lean Democratic. But those two blocs vote much differently depending on the state and region. Both groups are more Republican-leaning in the South than in other regions. That conservatism probably has something to do with religion (white voters in Southern states are more likely to be evangelical Protestants) and race (white voters in Southern states are more likely to express more negative attitudes towards people of color).

White voters in the South also tend to be consistently Republican. That is, they don’t really swing between the two parties as they do in a state like Iowa, where Biden could do 6 to 9 percentage points better than Hillary Clinton did four years ago. At FiveThirtyEight, we call this phenomenon “elasticity” — basically, how many voters in a state are persuadable vs. always vote for one party or the other. And South Carolina is one of the most inelastic states.

 

[Dnaguy 11775]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

10 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-iowa-to-leans-democratic/
 
election expert Sabato has moved Iowa senate from toss up to leans democrat. It looks like Iowa could save the day and still get the democrats that coveted 50th senate seat if Cunningham chokes it away by not being able to keep his pants on.

I didn't realize how far behind Trump Ernst appears to be running in the polls. That's very odd.

 

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Her opponent is a woman though. You'd think that's a mitigating factor when it comes to that.

The polls basically have 5-10 percent of the Iowa electorate voting for Trump but turning around and voting for a Democratic senator. That really doesn't pass the smell test.

I believe everyone is underestimating just how unlikeable Ernst.

Shes a complete wet sock on a cold Iowa February day.

She’s also a woman that tries to come across as competent and not ‘all shucks guys’ which also does nothing to help her with her base.

I think that she turns off enough diehard trumpers with that alone for them to vote Trump and leave her blank.

At least that’s my take. It’s worth every bit of what you paid for it.

[Dnaguy 11775]

18 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Here’s the problem for them... the more they juice their black turnout the more that juices white turnout on the other side to vote against them. 
that’s what you are seeing in the polls recently in SC imo- polls showed tightening, people said- we might elect a democrat?  Better hold my nose and vote for graham. Imo. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

for understanding of SC, 538 breaks down the state as technically close to being a swing state BUT the white GOP voters rarely or never switch to Dem even for a single race: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-did-lindsey-graham-end-up-in-such-a-close-race/

but the following is good for the gop but bad for dems:

 

That’s basically the thing I was saying about so it h Carolina and higher black turnout driving white turnout higher.