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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23079

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

McGrath's value is not in her winning (she won't).  To some degree, she neutralizes McConnell as a fundraising chess piece.  The more money/trail time he has to spend on his own campaign, the less he can do to defend his majority.   

It's the fight, not the victory in this case.

Also, the more time he spends on the road, the more opportunities he will have to get hit by a bus.

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Ghost of LL

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Posted
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8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

McGrath's value is not in her winning (she won't).  To some degree, she neutralizes McConnell as a fundraising chess piece.  The more money/trail time he has to spend on his own campaign, the less he can do to defend his majority.   The best thing is her base is small donors.  She basically has a limitless supply of money.  He's so hideously unpopular that only big money will donate to him.  He can raise alot, but he'll also bump up against donation limits.

It's the fight, not the victory in this case.

I agree.  I thought that was Beto's primary value last year.

Helluva lot of good it did.  I still can't believe Nelson lost in Florida.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I agree.  I thought that was Beto's primary value last year.

Helluva lot of good it did.  I still can't believe Nelson lost in Florida.

Nelson's campaign was basically "I'm Bill Nelson."   And DWS ran the state party apparatus into the ground.  The Dem GOTV network is in shambles in Florida.  And having an outsider running for Governor who was given the keys 3 months out from the election did no one favors.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19587

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3 hours ago, Pasken said:

Has anyone interacted with MJ Hegar? I guess if you are taking a run at John Cornyn, a veteran isn't a bad place to start. 

I live in Tx 31 and went to one of her campaign events in 2018. Her stump was basically "I will represent you, the people of the district and be available to you at all times unlike empty suit Carter". She didn't get into too much policy detail, mostly the usual stuff. She was very personable, and seemed approachable. TBH, I liked her a lot more as a Tx 31 candidate than a senate candidate. WillCo is going to rush right past purple and go Blue very soon as the housing boom continues out here. She won WillCo by around 5,000 votes last time, if memory serves. BellCo, the other part of the district is still pretty solidly red. She lost Bell by more than she won Williamson even with her being a decorated combat vet and Ft Hood being a large part of the Bell County vote. I think if she (or the right candidate) can keep Bell County close, there's going to be enough D votes in Williamson to flip the seat. I don't know if she would have the same appeal statewide, though it is early. She does have a lot of charisma, though. 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27627

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Kobach might be a celebrity in certain circles on the right, but he won't face an easy path to the nomination. Already in the running are state Treasurer Jake LaTurner and Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom, but the field could expand from there. Rep. Roger Marshall and state Senate President Susan Wagle are both considering and appear likely to get in, while Mitch McConnell and national Republicans are still trying to convince U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run in order to stop Kobach. However, if the field becomes too crowded, Kobach could prevail with a plurality like he did in the 2018 primary.

If McConnell has his way, Trump won't endorse Kobach again, but when people try to tell Trump what to do, it usually doesn't go the way they hope. Whatever Trump does, though, what remains of the GOP establishment will try to prevent Kobach from becoming the Republican nominee, since he could once again give Democrats an opening in a state that otherwise leans heavily to the right.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/7/9/1870324/-Morning-Digest-Infamous-vote-suppressor-and-anti-immigrant-activist-joins-Kansas-GOP-Senate-primary

That crowded field. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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It sucks.....

 

the democratic senate field could’ve gone much better.  We could’ve put Beto up against pornyn. We could’ve put Abrams up in Georgia. We could’ve put Hickenlooper in Colorado. We could’ve used the former D governor in Montana.

 

i know we have 5 star challengers aimed at Collins and Mcsally, and a strong candidate to force mr.turtle to focus on his own campaign, but I can’t help but think we’ve missed out on an opportunity to take the senate.

probably the best case scenario is democrats +1 seat.

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Zombie

Zombie 284

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It sucks.....

 

the democratic senate field could’ve gone much better.  We could’ve put Beto up against pornyn. We could’ve put Abrams up in Georgia. We could’ve put Hickenlooper in Colorado. We could’ve used the former D governor in Montana.

 

i know we have 5 star challengers aimed at Collins and Mcsally, and a strong candidate to force mr.turtle to focus on his own campaign, but I can’t help but think we’ve missed out on an opportunity to take the senate.

probably the best case scenario is democrats +1 seat.

Beto could still get in considering his presidential bid isn't going so well. If his poll numbers are still anemic or worse after the debates in a couple weeks, it would probably be a good time for him to reconsider his options. 

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swraith

swraith 348

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It sucks.....

 

the democratic senate field could’ve gone much better.  We could’ve put Beto up against pornyn. We could’ve put Abrams up in Georgia. We could’ve put Hickenlooper in Colorado. We could’ve used the former D governor in Montana.

 

i know we have 5 star challengers aimed at Collins and Mcsally, and a strong candidate to force mr.turtle to focus on his own campaign, but I can’t help but think we’ve missed out on an opportunity to take the senate.

probably the best case scenario is democrats +1 seat.

Certainly run the best candidates you can.  However I don’t see realistic possibilities of Democrats winning Senate seats in Texas or Georgia.

force Republicans to spend resources on defense but don’t get your hopes up. 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1773

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From what I've seen, I'm not too worried about Colorado. Sure Hickenlooper has the name recognition, but the Democrat bench seems to be solid enough that a quality candidate will face Gardner. 

Not sure if PredictIt has put up contracts yet on the Senate, but McGrath seems like a good one to take a flier on at 10 to 15 cents. But everything in Kentucky depends on their governor's race in the fall. If the incumbent comes back, forget it. 

As for the others, remember that there's a long way to go and the presidential field is going to shrink considerably by Halloween. So there is hope yet in Montana.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3980

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16 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It sucks.....

 

the democratic senate field could’ve gone much better.  We could’ve put Beto up against pornyn. We could’ve put Abrams up in Georgia. We could’ve put Hickenlooper in Colorado. We could’ve used the former D governor in Montana.

 

i know we have 5 star challengers aimed at Collins and Mcsally, and a strong candidate to force mr.turtle to focus on his own campaign, but I can’t help but think we’ve missed out on an opportunity to take the senate.

probably the best case scenario is democrats +1 seat.

Maine, Colorado, and Arizona are all going to be good races with better than 50/50 odds.  North Carolina looks like a toss up.  Kansas and maybe Georgia or Alaska are longer shots.  Iowa looks like it'll stay red.  I'd say right now it looks +2 with maybe North Carolina dictating what the Senate looks like.

 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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21 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Maine, Colorado, and Arizona are all going to be good races with better than 50/50 odds.  North Carolina looks like a toss up.  Kansas and maybe Georgia or Alaska are longer shots.  Iowa looks like it'll stay red.  I'd say right now it looks +2 with maybe North Carolina dictating what the Senate looks like.

 

+2 really?

i hope you’re including the loss of Doug Jones in your calculations.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3980

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7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

+2 really?

i hope you’re including the loss of Doug Jones in your calculations.

I am.  Trump's approval ratings are below water in all of those states and they're running wholly unspectacular candidates or incumbents (if McSally qualifies) in states growing bluer by the year.  Only Collins has a national profile and I think her votes against women's interests are going to sink her.  It's not like I think the D's are taking Ohio or something.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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40 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I am.  Trump's approval ratings are below water in all of those states and they're running wholly unspectacular candidates or incumbents (if McSally qualifies) in states growing bluer by the year.  Only Collins has a national profile and I think her votes against women's interests are going to sink her.  It's not like I think the D's are taking Ohio or something.  

You must be banking on the Dems winning Maine, Arizona, and Colorado.

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Js1

Js1 87183

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6 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I imagine most of that money came from out of state donations.  I doubt it makes one single shit.  

And it's a shame, she's a hyper-impressive woman who seems to understand the dynamics of Trumpism. 

Reminder, when Mitch was less unpopular and less polarizing, he only won by 8 in a presidential year (2008). 

Do I think he’ll lose? No. Do I think Amy could pull a Beto and force republicans to defend this seat at the expense of others? Yes. Because i don’t see Trump pitching in to help anyone but himself next November. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

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I'm not sure why expecting the Dems to take AZ, ME, and CO is such a shocker.  McSally and Gardner look terribly shaky.  She couldn't win, despite Ducey rolling to victory, and your asking a lot of people in CO to ticket split in a state expected to go blue in the presidential.

Collins will be tougher, if only because she has a longer track record and has romped to victory for years, but that Kavanaugh vote just will not go away.

I think most of us assume Jones is dead to rights unless Moore manages to make it out of the primary or subsequently runs as an independent. So +2 for the dems looks very doable. It's whether they can scratch out a seat in MT, AK, NC, KS, IA is the question. And let's be clear, if many of the Dems best candidates are running for President, McConnell hasn't exactly recruited rock stars in the GOP states.   This all assumes the economy stays strong through election day.  If we are in a recession by next spring, then it's Katy-bar-the-door.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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36 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Kelly is gonna take down McSally. She's had some bad luck. First she had to run against a decent looking lesbian, and now she's up against an astronaut. She needs to try another state. 

Actually.....I think most straight guys would bone that lesbian. Probably mcsally too.

mcsally sucks because she says “I’m a fighter pilot” every other sentence. I think she pushed her fighter pilot and military history way too hard, you gotta have some substance to back it up. She very obviously flip flopped mitt Romney style over different policies that are very important to the people of Arizona ( such as immigration).

i think there’s a good chance she loses, the only question will be can the Dems get enough people in that state out to vote in a presidential year?

 

until proven otherwise, I still view Arizona as a red state. 2018 was a blue wave year.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14806

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Trump got 49% in Arizona and they just elected an female, atheist, bisexual to the Senate.  Not sure why they're in discussion as a red state.  Purple at best with a likely D pickup in the Senate and probably going Democrat in the presidential depending on hispanic turnout.

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Js1

Js1 87183

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

THE DEMOCRATS!

Congratulations to everyone who has already wasted money sending it to this woman and will waste even more trying to prop her up.

 

Refund please

 

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Blotto

Blotto 24021

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Posted
57 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Wow

 

shes choking. She can make great videos, but when they interview her and she opens her mouth, nothing good comes out of it.

 

 

WTf is she saying here? During the entire shitshow that was the Kavanaugh confirmation which seemed to dominate the national political discussion for a few weeks, she never bothered to form an opinion? She didnt hear much about his record? Yet somehow today, after sticking her foot in her mouth and shitting down her leg, a couple of hours of reflection makes everything clear?

I would never vote for Mitch the Bitch, but that quote demonstrates she doesnt really stand for anything, she just says what she thinks people want to hear. If a female politician can't answer that particular question right off the bat, and later pretends that she previously hadn't given the issue much thought, she will get worked by McConnell. Say what you will about that twat, he understands politics.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

WTf is she saying here? During the entire shitshow that was the Kavanaugh confirmation which seemed to dominate the national political discussion for a few weeks, she never bothered to form an opinion? She didnt hear much about his record? Yet somehow today, after sticking her foot in her mouth and shitting down her leg, a couple of hours of reflection makes everything clear?

I would never vote for Mitch the Bitch, but that quote demonstrates she doesnt really stand for anything, she just says what she thinks people want to hear. If a female politician can't answer that particular question right off the bat, and later pretends that she previously hadn't given the issue much thought, she will get worked by McConnell. Say what you will about that twat, he understands politics.

I’m still holding out hope that he will age another 20 years overnight.

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3295

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Go left, Democrats, fucking GO LEFT

Who ever wins the nomination will be goose stepping to the right for the general election.  Unfortunately, the internet never forgets 

until then...

spacer.png

Edited by EuroHorn
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