2020 Senate Elections

[Bateshorn 9899]

43 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s basically the thing I was saying about so it h Carolina and higher black turnout driving white turnout higher. 

South Carolina is beginning to undergo a bit of the urban/rural red->blue shift that changed Virginia and North Carolina is in the midst of right now.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

Not great, not bad.  

NC.  4 point move for Cunningham.  This one still has me nervous.

Tight.

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Patrick Bateman

[Gil Bang 25898]

wtf???

 

This is SO fucking perfect.  It's a fucking Warhol for Christ's sake. 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Gil Bang

[G650 14106]

9 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

wtf???

 

This is SO fucking perfect.  It's a fucking Warhol for Christ's sake. 

 

 

I just saw this on Twitter. Lulz.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

52 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Not great, not bad.  

NC.  4 point move for Cunningham.  This one still has me nervous.

Tight.

 

Those are pretty decent polls, all things considered.  Up in North Carolina and tied in Georgia (both presidential and Senate).  I'll take it.

Here's a tip on that North Carolina race--if you're saying that your guy is "within the margin of error" on every poll that comes out, he's really not.  That's a tip for the MJ Hager fans in Texas, too.  When you have every poll showing your preferred candidate down one or two points, s/he is probably down.

[Bateshorn 9899]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Those are pretty decent polls, all things considered.  Up in North Carolina and tied in Georgia (both presidential and Senate).  I'll take it.

Here's a tip on that North Carolina race--if you're saying that your guy is "within the margin of error" on every poll that comes out, he's really not.  That's a tip for the MJ Hager fans in Texas, too.  When you have every poll showing your preferred candidate down one or two points, s/he is probably down.

Especially because the odds that polls are oversampling/adjusting for non college educated whites is better than not. 
 

Georgia is nice, but that state doesn’t have fair elections so, it’s mostly just an extra cherry on top if it happens. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Especially because the odds that polls are oversampling/adjusting for non college educated whites is better than not. 

I'm really glad you brought that up, because it's been nagging at me.  It seems that the pollsters always fight the last battle and end up overcorrecting.

Edited October 20, 2020 by Ghost of LL

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

27 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Those are pretty decent polls, all things considered.  Up in North Carolina and tied in Georgia (both presidential and Senate).  I'll take it.

Here's a tip on that North Carolina race--if you're saying that your guy is "within the margin of error" on every poll that comes out, he's really not.  That's a tip for the MJ Hager fans in Texas, too.  When you have every poll showing your preferred candidate down one or two points, s/he is probably down.

I didn’t know MJ Hager had fans. Just people that had to vote for her and curse her. Like Tom Herman. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm really glad you brought that up, because it's been nagging at me.  It seems that the pollsters always fight the last battle and end up overcorrecting.

Isn’t that what all of life is?  Overcorrecting for last times fuck ups. 

[Gap03 3285]

52 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

wtf???

 

This is SO fucking perfect.  It's a fucking Warhol for Christ's sake. 

 

 

It's the Georgia GOP voters he's targeting - this will probably work.  The minute that she tries to explain that it's a Warhol, he's going to paint her as an art-loving elite and she'll lose more votes. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I didn’t know MJ Hager had fans. Just people that had to vote for her and curse her. Like Tom Herman. 

I thought she was a great candidate for Tx31 (my district). I thought she was over-reaching running for senate, and told her campaign as much when they sent out an email to their mailing list saying she was considering running. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

24 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

It's the Georgia GOP voters he's targeting - this will probably work.  The minute that she tries to explain that it's a Warhol, he's going to paint her as an art-loving elite and she'll lose more votes. 

Art lover, commie.  Potatoe Potauhto.  All the same

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

23 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I thought she was a great candidate for Tx31 (my district). I thought she was over-reaching running for senate, and told her campaign as much when they sent out an email to their mailing list saying she was considering running. 

So, great position coach. Maybe a coordinator. 

[BradInATX 9208]

41 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm really glad you brought that up, because it's been nagging at me.  It seems that the pollsters always fight the last battle and end up overcorrecting.

Same. I haven't had any luck finding how they're sampling relative to 2016. There's a somewhat reasonable chance they over-adjusted for 2016 and Dem turnout is going to surpass those models and we're going to see a huge blue wave. I guess there's a chance they didn't adjust them enough too, which is what most of the Trump folks are banking on. Seems unlikely to me.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

29 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I thought she was a great candidate for Tx31 (my district). I thought she was over-reaching running for senate, and told her campaign as much when they sent out an email to their mailing list saying she was considering running. 

I liked her for TX -31 but I gave her credit for being a better candidate than she seems to be. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Same. I haven't had any luck finding how they're sampling relative to 2016. There's a somewhat reasonable chance they over-adjusted for 2016 and Dem turnout is going to surpass those models and we're going to see a huge blue wave. I guess there's a chance they didn't adjust them enough too, which is what most of the Trump folks are banking on. Seems unlikely to me.

Everything about Trump is pretty unlikely so yeah. But I think you are correct. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I liked her for TX -31 but I gave her credit for being a better candidate than she seems to be. 

So, whose a worse politician in your mind- her or Scott Walker?

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So, whose a worse politician in your mind- her or Scott Walker?

He was clearly a bad governor (see the Foxconn deal) and I find him repellent but what he does apparently works for the people he needs to reach, which is really all you need. She’s having struggles with Black Democrats in Dallas, which a Democrat in Texas can never do. Even if that’s more a Royce West problem than a Hagar problem, it’s her problem to manage and she hasn’t done it well. 

[DanTheHorn 4901]

Several Senators now

Edited October 20, 2020 by DanTheHorn

[High Plains Drifter 10976]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

(white voters in Southern states are more likely to express more negative attitudes towards people of color).

^^From eddie's link.

 

That's a lot of words to say 'whitey is racist".

 

[thepop 4409]

Republican internal 

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, thepop said:

Republican internal 

Wow, is Stewart going to win that for Greenfield? (I assume those are Ernst votes he is taking). 

[atomheartbevo 89429]

4 hours ago, DanTheHorn said:

Several Senators now

Add another Republican Senator to Trump's shit list.  He's been on it in the past, but I doubt this will go unnoticed by Trump.   

 

[gmr548 16512]

Republican internal 

Wow, that's atrocious.

[swraith 336]

3 hours ago, thepop said:

Republican internal 

Please sir may I have another.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Add another Republican Senator to Trump's shit list.  He's been on it in the past, but I doubt this will go unnoticed by Trump.   

 

He was also the only Republican senator (nonRomney) honest about impeachment. “Yeah of course he did it. I’m just not gonna go to impeach” was basically his position. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

NYT/Sienna says Ernst is up. 
 

 

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32333]

22 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

He was clearly a bad governor (see the Foxconn deal) and I find him repellent but what he does apparently works for the people he needs to reach, which is really all you need. She’s having struggles with Black Democrats in Dallas, which a Democrat in Texas can never do. Even if that’s more a Royce West problem than a Hagar problem, it’s her problem to manage and she hasn’t done it well. 

Speaking of, here's the Foxconn deal from the desk of Scott Walker.  Nice to see multi-billion dollar deals drawn up on a single piece of stationary. 

 

 

Rest of the article (long read, but well worth your time):

https://www.theverge.com/21507966/foxconn-empty-factories-wisconsin-jobs-loophole-trump

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

 

That there are places like Kansas, South Carolina, and Montana that are even in play is still somewhat amazing.  It has really taken the focus off the Core Four, which are looking safer and safer as the days go by.

[Gil Bang 25898]

 

[Gil Bang 25898]

[UncleSonny 6557]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

 

As always, what a picture of courage and integrity. If Mitt believes that Donald Trump is unfit to serve as President he has one option that will help the country: vote for and endorse Joe Biden. But no, that would involve helping the other team so his statement and his write-in vote for Brigham Young will do precisely fucking nothing.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

4 minutes ago, UncleSonny said:

As always, what a picture of courage and integrity. If Mitt believes that Donald Trump is unfit to serve as President he has one option that will help the country: vote for and endorse Joe Biden. But no, that would involve helping the other team so his statement and his write-in vote for Brigham Young will do precisely fucking nothing.

I think writing-in dead people (Young, Reagan) for office is a coward's way out. They're not on the ballot, so make a choice that you think is right for America within the 2 choices, or even the 5 choices.)  Now it's also cool if you don't want to tell anyone but stop with the announcements that you can't vote for the candidates on the ballot. 

[SydneyCarton 47876]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think writing-in dead people (Young, Reagan) for office is a coward's way out. They're not on the ballot, so make a choice that you think is right for America within the 2 choices, or even the 5 choices.)  Now it's also cool if you don't want to tell anyone but stop with the announcements that you can't vote for the candidates on the ballot. 

Shh. You're going to upset Anastasis and Wulaw.

[Tuco 5076]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

NYT/Sienna says Ernst is up. 
 

 

 

 

With 6% Undecided.  I would take Greenfield in that situation.  

(2% for Stewart, 2% for Herzog, 1% for write-in, 1% for not voting on Senate)

 

[atomheartbevo 89429]

Mitt should go independent.  Hell, the Mormons already flirt with that as it is, given that quite a few have spoken out against Trump.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

"Andrei.......eeeerrr Donald, you've lost another republican?" - The Hunt for October Votes



Mitt Romney announced today that he did not vote for Trump in the upcoming 2020 election.

[UncleSonny 6557]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Mitt should go independent.  Hell, the Mormons already flirt with that as it is, given that quite a few have spoken out against Trump.

Spoiler

Yeah, Mitt wants to be seen as the adult in the room advocating for a policy based, kind, more understanding approach to American politics while still both-siding like the Dems are equally accountable for the state things are. As long as he (and anyone else) has that red "R" next to his name he has zero credibility. 

I'm sure in his head he's sticking around to fight for the soul of the GOP, but that war has been lost. If he truly takes issue with what this administration has done he has enabled Trump and people like him and his light push-backs do nothing the change the fact that he is complicit.

And maybe bailing on the GOP once and for all wouldn't make any difference either but it would at least it would show some courage in his supposed convictions. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

On 10/20/2020 at 2:26 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

He was clearly a bad governor (see the Foxconn deal) and I find him repellent but what he does apparently works for the people he needs to reach, which is really all you need. She’s having struggles with Black Democrats in Dallas, which a Democrat in Texas can never do. Even if that’s more a Royce West problem than a Hagar problem, it’s her problem to manage and she hasn’t done it well. 

According to her social media, she's been in DFW all weekend, campaigning with (checks notes)...Ed Markey?...And a bunch of white people?... WTF? 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

1 hour ago, UncleSonny said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Yeah, Mitt wants to be seen as the adult in the room advocating for a policy based, kind, more understanding approach to American politics while still both-siding like the Dems are equally accountable for the state things are. As long as he (and anyone else) has that red "R" next to his name he has zero credibility. 

I'm sure in his head he's sticking around to fight for the soul of the GOP, but that war has been lost. If he truly takes issue with what this administration has done he has enabled Trump and people like him and his light push-backs do nothing the change the fact that he is complicit.

And maybe bailing on the GOP once and for all wouldn't make any difference either but it would at least it would show some courage in his supposed convictions. 

I can tell you how he can do some redeeming work. 

Vote against the Supreme Court nominee. 

I'm more than a little skeptical 

[GopherRock 1765]

On the one hand, this race hasn't been polled at all in over a month. Also, Tina running 7-8 points behind Biden statewide makes zero sense. 

On the other, KSTP has been digging through the trash for news for 20 years trying to stay relevant. 

 

[Gil Bang 25898]

[RayDog 682]

It is no surprise that Senate Republicans are jumping off the Trump train as they don't want 2022 to be another referendum on Trump. Looking ahead to 2022 it could be a blood bath if there is still an anti-Trump democratic turnout. 

Competitive open seats are in NC and PA, So far

Competitive possibly open seats are in IA, AK, WI. And VT may be an open D seat where they will want to challenge.

Competitive with an R incumbent in FL, OH, and possibly GA.

Republicans may have another open seat in Alabama. Blunt had a tough challenge against Kander in 2016 an only got 49% of the vote. There are rumors Buttigieg could run in Indiana where Young only had 52% last time. Could SC be competitive again? Will Rand Paul face a primary challenger?

They will be forced to waste resources in states they should win, and other resources in D leaning and tossup states. They will have to defend 8 to 12 seats.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

10 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

On the one hand, this race hasn't been polled at all in over a month. Also, Tina running 7-8 points behind Biden statewide makes zero sense. 

On the other, KSTP has been digging through the trash for news for 20 years trying to stay relevant. 

 

First comment

Oversampling of R? Dunno. 

[thepop 4409]

I suspect Tina Smith is in the same situation as Gary Peters. Relatively unknown, but when it comes to Election Day the Dems will show up for her. Similar to Cornyn in Texas with republicans. 
 

Also, what a shame Doug Jones is going to lose to that clown. He’s one of the better senators.

[Gil Bang 25898]

https://twitter.com/collinsforga/status/1318688448115470337?s=21

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

https://twitter.com/collinsforga/status/1318688448115470337?s=21

Lmao those dumbfucks are gonna hand this race to Warnock.

[Blotto 23434]

5 hours ago, UncleSonny said:

As always, what a picture of courage and integrity. If Mitt believes that Donald Trump is unfit to serve as President he has one option that will help the country: vote for and endorse Joe Biden. But no, that would involve helping the other team so his statement and his write-in vote for Brigham Young will do precisely fucking nothing.

 

2 hours ago, UncleSonny said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Yeah, Mitt wants to be seen as the adult in the room advocating for a policy based, kind, more understanding approach to American politics while still both-siding like the Dems are equally accountable for the state things are. As long as he (and anyone else) has that red "R" next to his name he has zero credibility. 

I'm sure in his head he's sticking around to fight for the soul of the GOP, but that war has been lost. If he truly takes issue with what this administration has done he has enabled Trump and people like him and his light push-backs do nothing the change the fact that he is complicit.

And maybe bailing on the GOP once and for all wouldn't make any difference either but it would at least it would show some courage in his supposed convictions. 

I cant say it enough. Mitt Romney can get fucked by a rabid elephant. He cares about Mitt Romney first, everyone else second. He is no champion of the people, that fuckstick made his millions in private equity fucking over numerous companies and workers so Bain could line its pockets. Its almost easier to excuse dipshits like Gohmert because they are just stupid fucking people. But Romney is smart, and he is acutely aware of what is going on in this country.