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2020 Senate Elections

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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On 7/10/2019 at 11:48 AM, Zombie said:

Beto could still get in considering his presidential bid isn't going so well. If his poll numbers are still anemic or worse after the debates in a couple weeks, it would probably be a good time for him to reconsider his options. 

I would still like t see Castro drop out and run for senate. A high profile Latino would have the easiest time picking up the 215000 votes Beto was short.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Posted (edited)

I looked at the counties in Texas with the most votes in 2018 and looked at the Democratic vote advantage and the Democratic voting percentage in the 2018 Senate and 2016 and 2012 Presidential races. The top 30 are below that account for 78.7% of the total vote and 88.5% of the Democratic vote. The top 10 accounted for 58.8% of the total vote and  71.2% of the Democratic vote. 

There were 8 million votes in 2012, 9 million in 2016 and 8.3 million in 2018. There is expected to be 10+ million in 2020. The 2 million plus 2020 voters that did not vote in 2018 will come almost entirely from these counties.

In 2018 in the top 10 counties where at least 1.4 million of the new 2020 voters will come from, the percentage was 59.1% Democratic to 40.9% Republican.

County    Dem adv.    2018    2016    2012
HARRIS    201,298    57.98%    53.95%    49.39%
DALLAS    240,269    66.14%    60.75%    57.11%
TARRANT    4,308    49.93%    43.14%    41.43%
BEXAR    109,346    59.49%    54.19%    51.56%
TRAVIS    240,494    74.30%    65.77%    60.14%
COLLIN    -21,811    46.53%    38.91%    33.49%
DENTON    -24,095    45.52%    37.13%    33.35%
FORT BEND    30,976    55.75%    51.39%    46.08%
WILLIAMSON    5,993    50.84%    41.59%    37.90%
EL PASO    100,539    74.40%    69.08%    65.51%
MONTGOMERY    -86,127    26.97%    22.40%    19.02%
HIDALGO    57,911    68.81%    68.50%    70.40%
GALVESTON    -22,576    39.66%    35.52%    35.89%
BRAZORIA    -20,465    40.47%    35.65%    32.25%
NUECES    1,436    50.38%    47.12%    47.63%
LUBBOCK    -26,712    35.02%    28.30%    28.81%
BELL    -9,020    44.37%    39.79%    41.19%
HAYS    12,276    57.16%    46.04%    43.27%
CAMERON    20,196    62.60%    64.51%    64.99%
SMITH    -30,578    29.95%    26.31%    26.95%
MCLENNAN    -17,403    38.00%    34.22%    34.47%
JEFFERSON    397    50.01%    48.44%    50.40%
BRAZOS    -8,095    43.23%    34.40%    31.23%
COMAL    -27,249    27.37%    22.90%    22.22%
ELLIS    -21,916    31.53%    25.53%    25.63%
GUADALUPE    -13,859    36.79%    31.81%    31.80%
PARKER    -34,115    18.27%    14.69%    16.47%
JOHNSON    -27,160    23.67%    19.07%    21.49%
WEBB    21,345    71.20%    74.35%    76.56%
RANDALL    -28,866    19.84%    15.41%    15.24%

 

Edited by RayDog
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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RayDog said:

I looked at the counties in Texas with the most votes in 2018 and looked at the Democratic vote advantage and the Democratic voting percentage in the 2018 Senate and 2016 and 2012 Presidential races. The top 30 are below that account for 78.7% of the total vote and 88.5% of the Democratic vote. The top 10 accounted for 58.8% of the total vote and  71.2% of the Democratic vote. 

There were 8 million votes in 2012, 9 million in 2016 and 8.3 million in 2018. There is expected to be 10+ million in 2020. The 2 million plus 2020 voters that did not vote in 2018 will come almost entirely from these counties.

In 2018 in the top 10 counties where at least 1.4 million of the new 2020 voters will come from, the percentage was 59.1% Democratic to 40.9% Republican.

County    Dem adv.    2018    2016    2012
HARRIS    201,298    57.98%    53.95%    49.39%
DALLAS    240,269    66.14%    60.75%    57.11%
TARRANT    4,308    49.93%    43.14%    41.43%
BEXAR    109,346    59.49%    54.19%    51.56%
TRAVIS    240,494    74.30%    65.77%    60.14%
COLLIN    -21,811    46.53%    38.91%    33.49%
DENTON    -24,095    45.52%    37.13%    33.35%
FORT BEND    30,976    55.75%    51.39%    46.08%
WILLIAMSON    5,993    50.84%    41.59%    37.90%
EL PASO    100,539    74.40%    69.08%    65.51%
MONTGOMERY    -86,127    26.97%    22.40%    19.02%
HIDALGO    57,911    68.81%    68.50%    70.40%
GALVESTON    -22,576    39.66%    35.52%    35.89%
BRAZORIA    -20,465    40.47%    35.65%    32.25%
NUECES    1,436    50.38%    47.12%    47.63%
LUBBOCK    -26,712    35.02%    28.30%    28.81%
BELL    -9,020    44.37%    39.79%    41.19%
HAYS    12,276    57.16%    46.04%    43.27%
CAMERON    20,196    62.60%    64.51%    64.99%
SMITH    -30,578    29.95%    26.31%    26.95%
MCLENNAN    -17,403    38.00%    34.22%    34.47%
JEFFERSON    397    50.01%    48.44%    50.40%
BRAZOS    -8,095    43.23%    34.40%    31.23%
COMAL    -27,249    27.37%    22.90%    22.22%
ELLIS    -21,916    31.53%    25.53%    25.63%
GUADALUPE    -13,859    36.79%    31.81%    31.80%
PARKER    -34,115    18.27%    14.69%    16.47%
JOHNSON    -27,160    23.67%    19.07%    21.49%
WEBB    21,345    71.20%    74.35%    76.56%
RANDALL    -28,866    19.84%    15.41%    15.24%

 

I really like seeing tarrant county go blue. I remember that we were statistically the highest population republican county that most often used the “straight ticket” voting option. Hopefully people around here will grow a brain now that the option has been removed. I doubt it tho.

 

either way, I’m glad we’re trending blue.

Edited by Voldemort86
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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20 hours ago, Brandywine said:

At this point unless something happens with either Beto, Castro or someone at that level getting in, Cornyn will win by a landslide. No Dem is making serious noise and I don’t see it changing.  

We wont see landslides in Texas for the next decade and when we do they will go the other way.

I still feel pretty certain that it was the fact that the Kavanaugh hearings increased Republican voter enthusuasm that gave Cruz the extra 215,000 votes he needed to beat Beto.

If the Republicans don't do something to similarly generate enthusiasm in 2020 their results will be significantly below 2018. That will have a bigger effect on house races.

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gmr548

gmr548 16700

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We wont see landslides in Texas for the next decade and when we do they will go the other way.
I still feel pretty certain that it was the fact that the Kavanaugh hearings increased Republican voter enthusuasm that gave Cruz the extra 215,000 votes he needed to beat Beto.
If the Republicans don't do something to similarly generate enthusiasm in 2020 their results will be significantly below 2018. That will have a bigger effect on house races.

The president will be on the ballot. There's your enthusiasm bump.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Brandywine

Brandywine 1330

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3 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The question is how motivated Texans will be to show up for trump. 

We're not talking Dems here. The Democrats are the laziest, full of excuses group of voters. They could have pulled Beto out and got him elected. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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8 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

The question is how motivated Texans will be to show up for trump. 

In 2016 Texas swung further away from the Republican presidential candidate when compared to 2012 than every state except California.

Texans did not buy into Trump then, unlike people from most states. I think they will buy into him even less now.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

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6 minutes ago, RayDog said:

In 2016 Texas swung further away from the Republican presidential candidate when compared to 2012 than every state except California.

Texans did not buy into Trump then, unlike people from most states. I think they will buy into him even less now.

I certainly hope you are right. It’s not often that republicans nominate somebody so polarizing that it will really drive democrat turn out. W’s second election could have been that way but Texas was much more conservative back then and he was from here. McCain and Romney were vanilla enough to not rile up Dems too much. Trump is a different animal. I truly expect Texans to show up and vote against him in record numbers, making the closest presidential election this state has seen in a long time. 

Carter beat ford by 3.2% in 1976. The next election Reagan won by 27.5% and it’s been red ever since. My prediction is that trump wins Texas by less than 5% (it was 9% last time) and it becomes very clear to all that Texas is a swing state. Republicans will later claim it was just a trump problem...and they will be wrong.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Texas is now at best for the republicans a plus 6 state and more likely plus 4. Even then Trump has never been all that popular here which means Texas in 2020 is a swing state.

This is terrible news for the republicans because of the added cost to run a campaign here. Both Texas and Florida are must wins for the republicans. That means a lot of money spent here that would have gone somewhere else.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13730

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8 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


McGrath going in with both barrels blazing.

Seems like an easy strategy but I wouldn’t be coy or quiet about it; put the blame 100% on McConnell.  He will still win but testimonials about people losing relatives and/or having their lives ruined by McConnell would be effective.  Worse case it will force him to address the issue more.  

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27627

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-winning-the-fundraising-race-in-the-senate/

the three major electionhandicappers rate as anything other than solid red or blue1 — Democrats have raised $34.1 million in total contributions in the first six months of 2019, and Republicans have raised $29.3 million. (A handful of minor candidates did not have second-quarter reports posted on the FEC website as of Tuesday at noon, so these numbers may be incomplete.) That gap is especially troubling for the GOP because there are eight Republican incumbents running in those 14 races, and incumbents usually raise more money than challengers early on.

Sharedblue is calling Gardner the most vulnerable. 538 has it as a tossup 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)
On 7/19/2019 at 3:16 PM, cactusflinthead said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-winning-the-fundraising-race-in-the-senate/

the three major electionhandicappers rate as anything other than solid red or blue1 — Democrats have raised $34.1 million in total contributions in the first six months of 2019, and Republicans have raised $29.3 million. (A handful of minor candidates did not have second-quarter reports posted on the FEC website as of Tuesday at noon, so these numbers may be incomplete.) That gap is especially troubling for the GOP because there are eight Republican incumbents running in those 14 races, and incumbents usually raise more money than challengers early on.

Sharedblue is calling Gardner the most vulnerable. 538 has it as a tossup 

Republicans will most likely be in a world of hurt when that disgusting toad Sheldon Adelson finally croaks. He’s been very active in politics since as long as I can remember. He’s the main reason democrats were uncompetitive in the last few midterm elections prior to 2018 of course. He gave an unprecedented amount of money to repubs in 2018 and they still got rocked. I just can’t wait until he’s out of the picture tho, it will be a big hole for them to fill.

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Js1

Js1 87182

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8 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

This. This is very very good.
 

I don’t think it’s possible to be in love with an ad, but I want to take it behind the middle school and get it pregnant 

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Js1

Js1 87182

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36 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

One wonders if the Republicans wouldn't be better off at this point without Collins.  Her brand has really taken a beating over the last 12 months.

No way. The whole reasons she wins is enough crossover votes. Another republican isn’t going to get that. 

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No way. The whole reasons she wins is enough crossover votes. Another republican isn’t going to get that. 

Doesn't Maine elect right wing nutcases, like that crazy governor?  (I know very little about Maine). 

It would be hilarious if her party abandoned her after she shredded her credibility for the party. 

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Js1

Js1 87182

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Doesn't Maine elect right wing nutcases, like that crazy governor?  (I know very little about Maine). 

It would be hilarious if her party abandoned her after she shredded her credibility for the party. 

LePage was lucky to run in 10 and 14. Two stellar republican years. 

2010 - won a three way race with 38% of the vote 

2014 - won with 48% in a three way race (the 2010 indie runner up totally spoiled it in 14, taking 8.5% away from the Democrat)

LePage would never have won under RCV now that it’s law in Maine 

Edited by Js1
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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

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3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

One wonders if the Republicans wouldn't be better off at this point without Collins.  Her brand has really taken a beating over the last 12 months.

It's Collins or bust for the GOP. I don't see any other Republican winning an open seat. Maine has really swung left fast.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Rachel Bitcofer put out an electoral college map where she lists Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and Florida as toss-ups. Three of those have senate races, with Arizona looking like the best pickup opportunity followed by North Carolina and then Iowa. She has Georgia as a lean R and Texas as a Likely R. I think both of those will be considered toss-ups by this time next year.

With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election

She has Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire as lean D, predicting a democratic presidential victory. 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3871

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1 hour ago, RayDog said:

Rachel Bitcofer put out an electoral college map where she lists Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and Florida as toss-ups. Three of those have senate races, with Arizona looking like the best pickup opportunity followed by North Carolina and then Iowa. She has Georgia as a lean R and Texas as a Likely R. I think both of those will be considered toss-ups by this time next year.

 With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election

She has Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire as lean D, predicting a democratic presidential victory. 

It's certainly comforting seeing a win without relying on FL or GA.

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