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2020 Senate Elections


Patrick Bateman

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10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

But he's talking about Georgia and Abrams absolutely kicked ass at the ground game for the last two years.

Will she be able to do it for a special election? That's working against the Democrats there but in their favor is that she can point to the Presidential result in Georgia as validation for what she told them for two years about turning Georgia blue.

That's our hope--that there is a very Georgia-centric turnout operation that can save the day.  And honestly, I think there's reason to be optimistic about it.

7 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Would not shock at all if the suburbs turn out a shitload of Warnock-Perdue voters, and that ends up the result.  These people will get swayed by all the divided government arguments.

I foresee a lot of split ballots.  I would not be surprised to see Warnock and Perdue win.

Which would make Moscow Mitch's cough all the more interesting.

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In the dream, but will never happen, scenario. Those gop senators that are moderate to liberal (Sasse, Collins, Murkowski, etc.) are fed up with Dotard and the soulless gop and Mitch get together with Biden and if he agrees to not push far left policies, they will all switch to the Democratic party. Like I said it'll never happen, but they would become very powerful members of the Senate if they did. They could vote one way or the other on any bill and pretty much determine the outcome of any legislation. 

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11 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

Would not shock at all if the suburbs turn out a shitload of Warnock-Perdue voters, and that ends up the result.  These people will get swayed by all the divided government arguments.

I’d love to see the odds of a split between the two races. They are so close it could happen with 2 or 3% ticket splitting that all goes in the same direction. Can that happen?  No idea. But it will be interesting to watch.  If anyone sees those odds please post them. 

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1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

Joe Manchin

So, does this depress turnout for dems?  Or is this an effort to make Rs feel like it isn't life or death to vote and depress their vote?

It's a huge boost for Ossoff and Warnock.  It allows them to say no court packing.  I also believe Manchin when he says it, but he's also doing them an electoral solid.

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6 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


If this doesn't kill her chances, nothing can.   A rich person flying around in a private jet that they themselves are paying for MIGHT just be enough to get some of them to think again.

Perdue is a big or bigger crook and he out performed her. 

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5 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

It's a huge boost for Ossoff and Warnock.  It allows them to say no court packing.  I also believe Manchin when he says it, but he's also doing them an electoral solid.

Yeah, that was my read as well.  Go ahead moderates in GA- vote for Dems- give us 50/50 majority- I will make sure we hold the line against anything you might be concerned about. No problem.  I don't know that anyone is buying that, but that was my read on why he came out with that now. Kind of counterbalancing Chuck Schumer's comments from Saturday. 

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4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You mean DPCC Vice Chair Joe Manchin? I’m pretty sure he knows what he’s doing. 

Yup.  He's a pro.

For the record, I very much believe him when he says that he would not support ending the filibuster or court packing so long as you add the caveat "under the current circumstances."  But when Moscow Mitch refuses to confirm any judges, the circumstances will change.

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Schumer is one worthless SOB. My friends in NC, say Jeff Jackson is the real deal and should have been the candidate. Schumer squashed it. 

42652502_907698266099429_673591874500637

Quote

Cunningham isn’t the only one who should be kicking himself for screwing over America. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer should be, too. Schumer recruited Cunningham for the race, and his Senate Majority PAC spent millions supporting him. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed Cunningham in the primary against several other Democrats, including progressive two-term state Sen. Erica Smith, a Black woman in a state whose registered Democrats are nearly half Black. (Cunningham was a former one-term state senator who lost the Democratic primary for a U.S. Senate seat in 2010 and hadn’t sought political office since.) According to a Democratic consultant who spoke to Politico and was “familiar with the process” of selecting Cunningham, Democratic leaders saw Cunningham as the candidate “with the fewest vulnerabilities for Republicans to exploit.” State Sen. Jeff Jackson said he’d considered running against Tillis too, but when he told Schumer he wanted to start his campaign by holding a town hall in each of North Carolina’s 100 counties, Schumer allegedly said, “Wrong answer—we want you to spend the next 16 months in a windowless basement raising money, and then we’re going to spend 80 percent of it on negative ads about Tillis.” And then Schumer went with Cunningham instead.

 

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10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

meh.  a little less bad live.  he said the three branches, realized that wasn't right, then couldn't figure out how to say the two chambers of the leg and the executive.

his wwii is way worse.

None of his supporters in Alabama will care about these type of "flubs".

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3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

meh.  a little less bad live.  he said the three branches, realized that wasn't right, then couldn't figure out how to say the two chambers of the leg and the executive.

his wwii is way worse.

In print, video clip, on a gigantic sign outside his office for the next six years, whatever. There is zero that is shocking about him saying either of those things. People with a stunted ability to understand history still will associate socialism to nazism. They are not the same thing. 
 

I am just waiting for one of these folks to associate Democrats with North Korea since they officially call themselves “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.” Might as well go all-in with the demonization of them. That has to be somewhere in their playbook. 

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On 11/7/2020 at 8:44 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not that I would but is there really anything stopping someone from moving there just to vote? It can make the difference in how the country could be ruled, whether courts are packed, whether there will be 2 new states. I don’t even know if you would even need to spend one night in Georgia to claim residency. It might take a trip or 2.

Update on this today:  GA Atty Gen said that although legally of course you can move here when you want (including before the Dec 7 deadline), if you move here just to vote, it's voter fraud, a criminal offense, and punishable by up to $100K fine and up to 10 years in Federal Pound-Me-In-The-Ass prison, especially if you already voted for candidates in 2020 in another state (which is very easy to check to see if you voted).

So could you get away with it?  Maybe, but they'll look at all new residents into Georgia the next month and see things like previous address and other stuff like utilities, new job locations, and of course your recent voting record, etc.  My guess is "maybe you could" but it's not like you can just sneak in there, vote, and leave.  They're looking for it.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/state-officials-warning-people-not-move-georgia-just-vote-senate-race/RVGXTUBJORHOZOCQRMUYONUEEE/

Edited by phdhorn
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On 11/10/2020 at 11:12 AM, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


If this doesn't kill her chances, nothing can.   A rich person flying around in a private jet that they themselves are paying for MIGHT just be enough to get some of them to think again.

You reckon a lot of GA swing voters follow (checks notes) David Rothkopf’s tweety page?

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14 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update on this today:  GA Atty Gen said that although legally of course you can move here when you want (including before the Dec 7 deadline), if you move here just to vote, it's voter fraud, a criminal offense, and punishable by up to $100K fine and up to 10 years in Federal Pound-Me-In-The-Ass prison, especially if you already voted for candidates in 2020 in another state (which is very easy to check to see if you voted).

So could you get away with it?  Maybe, but they'll look at all new residents into Georgia the next month and see things like previous address and other stuff like utilities, new job locations, and of course your recent voting record, etc.  My guess is "maybe you could" but it's not like you can just sneak in there, vote, and leave.  They're looking for it.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/state-officials-warning-people-not-move-georgia-just-vote-senate-race/RVGXTUBJORHOZOCQRMUYONUEEE/

The ga attorney general is claiming that if you voted in another state’s senate race for the November 3rd general election, then you are breaking the law for voting in the GA run off. One, I don’t know if that is true.  Second, he might be able to prove you voted but it would be impossivle for him to know if you voted in the senate race. The only evidence would be the word of the voter who could claim they only voted for the potus race or some local judge. Whether it’s believable or not, who cares.

and I could also see this State AG scaring people even if the law is not behind him. You don’t think that Paxton is above lying about the law for his and the gop benefit? I assume the GA guy is the same.

Interesting concept but more of an academic discussion on people moving to a swing state to flip it.

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I don't see why they don't use the voter registration rolls from 11/3 for the runoffs. I think that's one of the only cases where it's reasonable to limit voting. 

The entire point of a runoff is to reduce the number of candidates so that the same voter pool must now choose between two. 

I realize they can't change the law now for this case, more of a philosophical discussion for future cases. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

The entire point of a runoff is to reduce the number of candidates so that the same voter pool must now choose between two. 

Not sure I agree that using the same voter pool is the ideal solution. You could also argue that you only allow the exact same voters to vote and not people who showed up. The simple option is ranked choice voting, so 50% will get calculated immediately. Obviously the special election vote is a different beast since it was a primary and general in one.

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The ga attorney general is claiming that if you voted in another state’s senate race for the November 3rd general election, then you are breaking the law for voting in the GA run off. One, I don’t know if that is true.  Second, he might be able to prove you voted but it would be impossivle for him to know if you voted in the senate race. The only evidence would be the word of the voter who could claim they only voted for the potus race or some local judge. Whether it’s believable or not, who cares.

and I could also see this State AG scaring people even if the law is not behind him. You don’t think that Paxton is above lying about the law for his and the gop benefit? I assume the GA guy is the same.

Interesting concept but more of an academic discussion on people moving to a swing state to flip it.

The Senate issue, used in conjunction with residency issue, would provide courts with more than enough evidence of voter fraud though. if  they have a record of you voting in another state, you would certainly be suspect and screened for whether you can't prove long-term residency intent.

Nevertheless, I agree with almost academic, because even though the voting registration deadline is December 7th, it will take about 2 weeks to establish your residency credentials like driver's license and voter reg (which you can't get until you've proven state residency. With Thanksgiving holidays approaching, no question the state will be operating at a very, very slow pace with a few days off. residency).so for anyone moving to Georgia who wants to vote, they really only have about seven or eight more days realistically because they'll be too late to complete the move of residency by Dec. 7.

I don't think there's any deception by the attorney general's statement since bipartisan registration groups have essentially said the same thing. If you're coming to Georgia to vote fraudulently, you should be scared. if you're not, you have nothing to be scared about, especially it won't work within about a week.

And he's not making partisan statements on this, Republicans would be just as likely as Democrats to try to fake a move to vote.,

No one's really going to do this and if they do they're stupid and idiotic, and this won't amount to any difference whatsoever in the vote turnout.

I agree this is more of a speculative, and not realistic discussion from the first question anyhow. Just thought the update today was interesting that they actually addressed it.

 

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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not sure I agree that using the same voter pool is the ideal solution. You could also argue that you only allow the exact same voters to vote and not people who showed up. The simple option is ranked choice voting, so 50% will get calculated immediately. Obviously the special election vote is a different beast since it was a primary and general in one.

Ranked choice voting should be implemented nationwide. 

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On 11/12/2020 at 10:15 PM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

That Cunningham shit broke at the worst possible time. Granted, polling was unfortunately off this election and he was never going to win by 10 points, but I think before the scandal and if the scandal never happened, Cunningham would have won by 3-4 points.

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Look man, nobody wants a DEM controlled Senate more than I, but Cunningham proved himself to be not only a shitbag, but a dumb one at that.  Fuck that guy. 

Don't be getting strange pussy on the same sheets that your wife sleeps on.  That's beyond sleazy.  It's just horrific. 

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2 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Look man, nobody wants a DEM controlled Senate more than I, but Cunningham proved himself to be not only a shitbag, but a dumb one at that.  Fuck that guy. 

Don't be getting strange pussy on the same sheets that your wife sleeps on.  That's beyond sleazy.  It's just horrific. 

Dammit

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26 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Nothing would be better than Stacy Abram's registering of new voters that win back the Senate.  I guess Kemp was conservative enough to steal an election.

 

 

I am now convinced that Brian Kemp is the essence of manly strength, and not at all likely to cave in to adversity while weeping.

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