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Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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16 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Why do I feel like we’re getting played by China and North Korea in all this? 

Probably due to the fact that China is playing a game of geopolitical Go and Trump is playing potato.

 

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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On the old board, when this first came out that NK wanted to talk, everyone was saying Trump should get a peace prize if he pulls it off.  That was when it looked like there was no chance it would ever come to fruition.  Now that we have both south korea and china saying the same thing (and crediting trump) on NK nukes all of the sudden the same people that defend the Iran deal don't want to give the same credibility to a potential NK deal.  Amazing.

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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16 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

That's because the Iran deal actually happened.   Let's see what actually happens here before throwing a parade.

The reason I brought up Iran is because they have done the same thing as NK.  They always said they would back off and then don't.  But team obama around here only talked about how this time it was going to be rock solid (before it was never signed).  Now those same people are saying that while Iran was trustworthy (they aren't and never signed the deal) NK isn't and Trump is getting played.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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We previously had a deal with the DPRK.  The DPRK did something we didn't like that, and although it was not technically a violation of the deal, we decided to walk away from the deal anyway.  Then we tried to get another, weaker, deal with the DPRK and failed, and now here we are.  

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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6 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

The reason I brought up Iran is because they have done the same thing as NK.  They always said they would back off and then don't.  But team obama around here only talked about how this time it was going to be rock solid (before it was never signed).  Now those same people are saying that while Iran was trustworthy (they aren't and never signed the deal) NK isn't and Trump is getting played.

It's just not comparable at this point.   There were extensive bilateral and multilateral talks directly with Iran for many, many years before the deal.  And like two years of increasingly intensive negotiations under Obama before the deal was made.

What is there with NK right now?   One planned face-to-face between Kim and Trump that may or may not actually happen, and a vague indication from Kim to China that they will denuclearize?   How is that similar?

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28713

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37 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

On the old board, when this first came out that NK wanted to talk, everyone was saying Trump should get a peace prize if he pulls it off.  That was when it looked like there was no chance it would ever come to fruition.  Now that we have both south korea and china saying the same thing (and crediting trump) on NK nukes all of the sudden the same people that defend the Iran deal don't want to give the same credibility to a potential NK deal.  Amazing.

Oh "everyone" did, did they? The old board is still there. Post a link to "everyone" saying Trump should get a peace prize if he talks to Un.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29794

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Trump's rhetoric and tantrums raise North Korea to a perceived existential threat to the United States and likely provokes NK to act the part to raise their own prestige. Now we should lavish praise on Trump because China and South Korea may be brokering a return to the pre-Trump norm?

Trump used NK to generate hysteria that he could exploit for votes and support. NK can't use nukes with impunity anymore than the US, China, Russia, Pakistan or India can. And their huge army can't swim the Pacific to invade our shores.

Zero credit to Trump for creating a paper tiger and having somebody else identify it as paper. NK responding to sanctions is the old status quo.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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The pre-Trump norm would be doing nothing ("strategic patience" lol).  While denuclearization will never happen, he potentially negotiate a freeze of their program.  Obviously that is unlikely to happen given the people Trump has surrounded himself.  Bolton has said previously that he supports having a meeting because he believes it will fail and thereby clear a path for military confrontation.  

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8692

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31 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

The pre-Trump norm would be doing nothing ("strategic patience" lol).  While denuclearization will never happen, he potentially negotiate a freeze of their program.  Obviously that is unlikely to happen given the people Trump has surrounded himself.  Bolton has said previously that he supports having a meeting because he believes it will fail and thereby clear a path for military confrontation.  

Unilateral military strike would be colossally stupid. There’s no chance China would support such action on the continent, never mind the fallout (pardon the pun) if NK retaliates on SK or Japan. Preemptive strike in lieu of diplomacy is a terrible foreign policy, and shows Bolton has learned nothing from our invasion of Iraq

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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14 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump will now learn that he won’t be able to win politically, militarily and economically at the same time on some issues.   Push new tariffs on China and they won’t help with NK.   In many cases, the US buys international policy with economic assistance.  

The real problem is the idea that "help" is needed with NK or that anything even needs to be done at all with NK. They aren't going to get rid of nukes and aren't going to launch them at anyone either. The only thing that changes is the level of bullshit they spew. Let them cry wolf and bluster.  Give them nothing. 

 

This whole meeting Un had with China is about both of them getting concessions from us while giving up nothing themselves. NK's threats are toothless. Stopping the threats shouldn't even be a chip they can bargain with. 

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SmokeyTheBear

SmokeyTheBear 5562

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Seems like a big deal

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/17/north-and-south-korea-reportedly-set-to-announce-official-end-to-war.html

Quote
North and South Korea are in talks to announce a permanent end to the officially declared military conflict between the two countries, daily newspaper Munhwa Ilbo reported Tuesday, citing an unnamed South Korean official.

Ahead of a summit next week between North Korean premier Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, lawmakers from the neighboring states were thought to be negotiating the details of a joint statement that could outline an end to the confrontation.

Kim and Moon could also discuss returning the heavily-fortified demilitarized zone separating them to its original state, the newspaper said.

 

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28713

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How many of the three Americans still held captive in N. Korea did Pompeo get released? Remember when Trump took credit for getting a dying prisoner released? Surely he hasn't forgotten the three that N. Korea still wants to hold onto and isn't voluntarily releasing of their own volition. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23394

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Right click, incognito...

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/17/world/asia/trump-japan-north-korea-summit-talks.html

 

Update: In a tweet early on Wednesday, President Trump confirmed reports about the C.I.A. director Mike Pompeo’s secret meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, saying the session “went very smoothly” and that “a good relationship was formed.”

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Trump dispatched the C.I.A. director Mike Pompeo to North Korea to meet with its leader, Kim Jong-un, in recent weeks to lay the groundwork for a summit meeting between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump, two people briefed on the secret trip said on Tuesday.

Mr. Trump alluded to Mr. Pompeo’s mission when he said on Tuesday afternoon that the United States was in direct talks with North Korea at “extremely high levels,” and that the White House was looking at five sites for a potential meeting of the two leaders.

The White House has used intelligence, rather than diplomatic channels, to communicate with North Korea, ever since last month, when Mr. Trump unexpectedly accepted Mr. Kim’s invitation to meet.

Mr. Pompeo, who is awaiting confirmation as secretary of state, has been dealing with North Korean representatives through a channel that runs between the C.I.A. and its North Korean counterpart, the Reconnaissance General Bureau, according to other officials. And he has been in close touch with the director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, Suh Hoon, who American officials said brokered Mr. Kim’s invitation to Mr. Trump.

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On Tuesday, Mr. Trump also said he would give his blessing to North and South Korea to “discuss the end of the war” when the leaders of those countries meet this month, opening the door to a peace treaty that would replace the armistice that halted the Korean War in 1953.

His statements, which came as he welcomed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan to his oceanfront estate here, were fresh evidence of a diplomatic thaw underway on the Korean Peninsula, and made a once-unthinkable encounter between him and Mr. Kim far more likely.

The president did not specify who in his administration was talking to North Korea, nor did he give any hint of the sites under consideration — adding to the aura of mystery that has enveloped this potential meeting. The Washington Post first reported Mr. Pompeo’s trip, which took place over Easter.

But his comments could raise other thorny issues. A peace treaty with North Korea would greatly increase pressure to ease economic sanctions on the North and to withdraw American troops from the Korean Peninsula. It would also complicate the already tangled diplomacy in East Asia.

In his meeting with Mr. Abe, however, Mr. Trump projected optimism. He described North Korea in language worlds away from the speech he gave in November in Seoul, when he called it cruel and barbaric, “the results of a tragic experiment in a laboratory of history.”

“I really believe there’s a lot of good will,” Mr. Trump said. “They do respect us. We are respectful of them.”

He even suggested that the North and the South might announce some kind of deal before he met Mr. Kim.

On Tuesday, a South Korean newspaper, Munhwa Ilbo, reported that the two countries were negotiating an announcement “to ease military tensions and end a military confrontation,” as part of the summit meeting planned between Mr. Kim and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea.

That could involve pulling troops out of the Demilitarized Zone, making it a genuinely “Demilitarized Zone.” A South Korean government official later played down the report, saying it was too soon to tell what a joint statement by Mr. Moon and Mr. Kim would contain, other than broad and “abstract” statements about the need for North Korea to “denuclearize.”

But analysts said South Korea was aiming for a comprehensive deal, in which the North agreed to give up its weapons in return for a security guarantee, including a peace treaty. Mr. Trump’s comments suggested he backed that effort.

“They do have my blessing to discuss the end of the war,” he said. “People don’t realize that the Korean War has not ended. It’s going on right now. And they are discussing an end to war. Subject to a deal, they have my blessing.”

While Mr. Abe lavished praise on Mr. Trump for the sanctions campaign, which he said had brought North Korea to the table, he did not repeat the president’s words about an end to the Korean War.

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“Donald,” he said, “you’ve demonstrated your unwavering determination in addressing the challenge of North Korea.”

Mr. Abe said only that he hoped that the talks with Mr. Kim would force the North to address the threats posed by its nuclear and missile programs, as well as its abduction of Japanese citizens — a politically resonant issue in Japan that Mr. Trump promised to raise with Mr. Kim.

“Abe put on a surprisingly brave face,” said Michael J. Green, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who advised President George W. Bush on North Korea. “The president of the United States just endorsed a peace treaty with North Korea, a declared nuclear weapons state, and they offered nothing in return.”

China, which is a signer to the 1953 armistice, has long favored a peace treaty. But Japan, which did not sign it, is suspicious of one — as are some foreign policy experts in the United States, who point out that the North has yet to take any tangible steps to give up its nuclear arsenal.

The idea of a peace treaty is not new. The United States and North Korea discussed it in the 1990s and again in 2005. But it has never gone anywhere, largely because North Korea has reneged on pledges to give up its nuclear program.

Most scholars and officials agree that North and South Korea cannot themselves announce an end to the Korean War. It has to involve the United States and China as well, since both were signers to the armistice.

In welcoming Mr. Abe to his estate, Mar-a-Lago, for two days of meetings, Mr. Trump clearly hoped to change the subject from tampered documents, confiscated legal files and other symbols of the political storm clouds that hover over both leaders back home.

After days of ominous reports about his personal lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, and unflattering descriptions in a new book by James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director he ousted, Mr. Trump appeared to savor the prospect of discussing trade and the nuclear threat from North Korea with Mr. Abe, whom he described in Twitter as a “truly fine gentleman.”

The stakes are even higher for Mr. Abe, whose political survival is in doubt after two domestic scandals have sapped his approval ratings and raised questions about whether he will be forced to resign.

Mr. Abe has invested heavily in his relationship with Mr. Trump, whom he first visited at Trump Tower even before he was sworn in. Preserving that relationship, in the face of fresh challenges in trade and from North Korea, could affect Mr. Abe’s standing in Japan.

The White House sought to put a good face on the meeting, describing Japan as a great ally of the United States and Mr. Abe as a friend of Mr. Trump. But officials acknowledged there would be differences over trade, with Mr. Trump pushing for a trade deal between the two countries and Mr. Abe stung by Mr. Trump’s decision not to exempt Japan, like other American allies, from sweeping tariffs on steel exports.

“We have certain disagreements with respect to some of the trading issues,” Larry Kudlow, Mr. Trump’s chief economic adviser, told reporters before the meeting. “We’ll iron those out, hopefully.”

Mr. Kudlow said he expected Mr. Abe to petition Mr. Trump to grant Japan an exemption, but declined to predict how he would respond. He also tamped down expectations about the United States rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Asian trade pact, now anchored by Japan, which Mr. Trump pulled out of during his first week in office.

“We are in the pre-preliminary stages of any discussions,” he said. “It’s more of a thought than a policy.”

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Having met six times — including once before at Mar-a-Lago — and spoken by phone 20 times, Mr. Trump and Mr. Abe were likely to talk about the issues dogging them at home, officials said. But American officials said they did not believe that would dominate their discussions.

“It’s all part and parcel of the relationship,” said Matthew Pottinger, the senior director for Asia at the National Security Council. “Sometimes they talk about the respective politics in each other’s countries. They enjoy talking about it.”

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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I sincerely hope I am wrong, and Trump really has something amazing cooking, but everything that is happening seems like a plan by NK and China to get Trump to accept NK into the world Bmcommunity as a nuclear nation.   They know he just wants to be able to claim an achievement, however hollow.   They're going to "give up" tests they no longer need after the last dozen and the DMZ shit they also no longer need now that they can nuke mainland US, and in exchange Trump's going to roll back sanctions. 

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SmokeyTheBear

SmokeyTheBear 5562

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14 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I sincerely hope I am wrong, and Trump really has something amazing cooking, but everything that is happening seems like a plan by NK and China to get Trump to accept NK into the world Bmcommunity as a nuclear nation.   They know he just wants to be able to claim an achievement, however hollow.   They're going to "give up" tests they no longer need after the last dozen and the DMZ shit they also no longer need now that they can nuke mainland US, and in exchange Trump's going to roll back sanctions. 

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see some magical deal happening for all parties. China is taking lead in this and South Korea doesn't want to let America dictate it's future anymore it seems. This is going to end with China brokering a deal and strengthening it's position in the region. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14488

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3 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

I sincerely hope I am wrong, and Trump really has something amazing cooking, but everything that is happening seems like a plan by NK and China to get Trump to accept NK into the world Bmcommunity as a nuclear nation.   They know he just wants to be able to claim an achievement, however hollow.   They're going to "give up" tests they no longer need after the last dozen and the DMZ shit they also no longer need now that they can nuke mainland US, and in exchange Trump's going to roll back sanctions. 

Add in a couple hundred mil then you would get the Iran deal Obama negotiated.

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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33 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Add in a couple hundred mil then you would get the Iran deal Obama negotiated.

Sounds great.   I'd take IAEA inspectors on the ground in North Korea in a heartbeat.   Getting NK to take the Iran deal would be a historic achievement for Trump.

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11227

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I hope I'm just being a pessimist, but it's hard to imagine that Trump isn't getting played.  We can only assume that Russia and China are pulling the strings here and they know Trump is an idiot.  

They probably (rightfully) think they can play to Trump's ego and desire to be seen as a master dealmaker.  The only reason I can think of for NK to want to end the Korean war would be to get the US to withdraw it's troops from SK.  And they know Trump is dumb enough to agree to it in exchange for NK's fake capitulation

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Nobel? Nah.  If Trump negotiates denuclearization of the Norks, ok.  But there is about as much chance of that happening as I have of negotiating a bj from natalie portman. 

IMO This is all just a stunt.  Wag-the-dog except in a different form.  North Korea isn’t going to let inspectors in or get rid of their nukes.  They’re going to tell us what we want to hear, get a Summit, and some good PR. Never mind that North Korea is a brutal tyrannical regime where human rights are nonexistent.

North Korea wins in this deal no matter what, and Trump will probably get the boost he needs in the court of public opinion.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Plus, we're going to have to give them something. They aren't just going to do anything because we say so. That's how the 2005 promises came unwound.

We’re giving them the Summit which is the ultimate prize for them.

I’ve said it before, this is a bad approach.  I didn’t like the idea of Obama doing it and I don’t like the idea of Trump doing it.

By giving them a Summit with POTUS, we are legitimizing them as a global player with a seat at the table.  And how did they accomplish this?  The shot off ICBMs until we capitulated.  This sends the wrong message to any would be third world nuclear power.

Well, what should we do you ask? Continue diplomacy And put economic and political pressure on North Korea’s two biggest enablers, China and Russia.  

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18661

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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We’re giving them the Summit which is the ultimate prize for them.

I’ve said it before, this is a bad approach.  I didn’t like the idea of Obama doing it and I don’t like the idea of Trump doing it.

By giving them a Summit with POTUS, we are legitimizing them as a global player with a seat at the table.  And how did they accomplish this?  The shot off ICBMs until we capitulated.  This sends the wrong message to any would be third world nuclear power.

Well, what should we do you ask? Continue diplomacy And put economic and political pressure on North Korea’s two biggest enablers, China and Russia.  

I think they are going to want more than that to give up anything.

I don't think they'll ever give up their nukes. Only one country in history ever has.

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