2023 Republican Government Shutdown: Same Shit, Same Story

[HenryJames 65931]

30 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

[Goredho 17375]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Buncha damned boner-killers around here.  Sheesh.

Hey, whatever turns you on, there is no judgement here 😜

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

Y’all still think he’s going to declare a national emergency.

That’s funny.

[Bat Guano 359]

It's his only play. Didja happen to notice the Senate vote count? 83-16. That's way the fuck up into override territory. He has to throw his base something.

[retread 2951]

36 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

In case it hasn't been said today, fuck Susan Collins and her voice.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

Just now, Bat Guano said:

He has to throw his base something.

He is.

 The libs are melting down over a national emergency he hasn’t declared yet. 

That’s right actual constitutional conservatives, you’re the libs now.

[Trey3216 15325]

39 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

The precedent will be set when SCOTUS slaps down the emergency declaration. At least I hope.

That would actually create a more positive long-run outcome in about 99.99% of cases.  

['stache 21778]

31 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

Easy. God is on conservatives side so its moral to do anything to that end. Libruls on the other hand are literally evil and must be stopped so its moral to do anything to that end. How is this even a legitimate question anymore?

[David Dennison 18768]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He is.

 The libs are melting down over a national emergency he hasn’t declared yet. 

That’s right actual constitutional conservatives, you’re the libs now.

Turning your back on your core ideology to own the libs.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

There is a no zero chance he declares a national emergency but it’s a stupid play, even for Trump.

The Trump play would be to hold the national emergency card as long as possible.

Once he declares a national emergency over the Wall, his fight for it ends. 

The fight for the Wall is all he has so what comes after? 

[retread 2951]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The fight for the Wall is all he has so what comes after? 

 

Edited February 14, 2019 by retread

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

4 minutes ago, retread said:

 

Daddy Putin isn’t going to allow that.

[InkaUtexas 25630]

Then maybe this. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Then maybe this. 

That’s more like it.  Create instability and uncertainty to drive up oil prices.

[David Dennison 18768]

We aren't going to do shit in Venezuela. We've done all that we're going to do, which is wag a finger.

[Francisco 2.0 32355]

17 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

There is a no zero chance he declares a national emergency but it’s a stupid play, even for Trump.

The Trump play would be to hold the national emergency card as long as possible.

Once he declares a national emergency over the Wall, his fight for it ends. 

The fight for the Wall is all he has so what comes after? 

Oh shit, like anyone, even Trump, knows what he is going to do from day to day.

Silly Hugo.  You are overthinking this.

And the next fight is abortion.  He's going to dust off the old GOP playbook once again and see if it works.

[InkaUtexas 25630]

8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That’s more like it.  Create instability and uncertainty to drive up oil prices.

and save CITGO for the US market, which makes Daddy Putin a few bucks. All they have to exchange is a washed up dictator and a few generals. All who can go live in Sochi. 

[Bat Guano 359]

6 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Oh shit, like anyone, even Trump, knows what he is going to do from day to day.

Silly Hugo.  You are overthinking this.

 

This. He doesn't think that far ahead - 'that far' being more than 5 minutes.

And yes, the next step is a war. He knows that will work.

Edited February 14, 2019 by Bat Guano

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

5 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Oh shit, like anyone, even Trump, knows what he is going to do from day to day.

Silly Hugo.  You are overthinking this.

And the next fight is abortion.  He's going to dust off the old GOP playbook once again and see if it works.

Trump is oddly predictable if you look at the world through his eyes.

He lives for the theater of the conflict, not the victory. 

Moreover, abortion is a very sensitive topic for teh Donald because I’m pretty sure he’s financed some himself.

[lemonlime 5503]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trump is oddly predictable if you look at the world through his eyes.

He lives for the theater of the conflict, not the victory. 

Moreover, abortion is a very sensitive topic for teh Donald because I’m pretty sure he’s financed some himself.

This he has zero plans to even build a wall.  Or steel slats.  Or barbed wire fence.  Or whatever.  He only wants the theater.  And to lie to his kool aid drinkers that they're "winning."  

[Nolacycling 893]

Will our military follow his orders? I'm a poor historian, but has this happened in the last 100 years? What options does the military have to not follow his knee jerk command?

[Goredho 17375]

Trump's power (and possibly freedom) is dependent completely on two things 1) the roiling anger of the conservative street 2) their belief that he is the man to win the war they perceive themselves in.  That gives him leverage over the rest of the GOP.  A national emergency over the wall allows Trump to tell his base:

1.  I went to the mat for the wall
2.  It was congress, not I, that failed you
3.  Vote out the dems *and* tepid republicans so we can fully build the wall in 2020

I think its his best political play.  Shut things down again, and he would see his popularity plummet further outside his base.  Just sign off, and he would see his popularity among his base plummet.  This allows him to shore up his base and avoid the negative consequences of a shutdown.  He does not give a shit about the precedent.  He will be long gone before a Dem ever uses it.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

6 minutes ago, Goredho said:

A national emergency over the wall allows Trump to tell his base:

1.  I went to the mat for the wall
2.  It was congress, not I, that failed you
3.  Vote out the dems *and* tepid republicans so we can fully build the wall in 2020

Except he can do all those things without declaring a national emergency.

[InkaUtexas 25630]

but he will for the drama of the tweet from the twat. 

[Goredho 17375]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Except he can do all those things without declaring a national emergency.

No, look at the previous posts where the gatekeepers of the conservative street are warning him to not simply sign off on the bill.

[hayden_horn 11362]

has anyone considered how amazing it would be if trump declares the emergency, the house says "nope!" and it goes to the senate, where mitch's cold black heart pulls the rug out from donald's emergency by getting 6 or so republican senators to vote against?

[horncyclist 1386]

2 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

has anyone considered how amazing it would be if trump declares the emergency, the house says "nope!" and it goes to the senate, where mitch's cold black heart pulls the rug out from donald's emergency by getting 6 or so republican senators to vote against?

Doesn't trump have to sign it?

[Francisco 2.0 32355]

20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Moreover, abortion is a very sensitive topic for teh Donald because I’m pretty sure he’s financed some himself.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/abortion/430074-trump-offers-preview-of-abortion-message-ahead-of-2020

 

Quote

President Trump offered a preview of his message on abortion to activists and supporters in a call Thursday as he plans to make it a focus of his re-election campaign.

“He clearly is ready to take this on in the coming presidential election,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List.

 

Quote

Trump has increasingly focused on abortion as he prepares for what will likely be a tough re-election bid, complicated by the ongoing Mueller investigation. 

Trump has painted Democrats as extreme on “late-term” abortion in his re-election campaign, following the national conversation about proposals to ease restrictions on the procedure in Virginia and New York. 

“The national conversation about late-term abortion… has the power to start to peel away Democrats, especially in battle grounds,” Dannenfelser said.

 

Quote

Trump, who used to identify as “pro-choice,” now has a “deeply held and sincere conviction” about being “pro-life,” Dannenfelser said. 

“It’s a politically smart move he has made in advancing human rights in this way, but also it’s the right thing to do, and it’s obvious to me it’s truely felt.” 

 

Edited February 14, 2019 by Francisco 2.0

[hayden_horn 11362]

1 minute ago, horncyclist said:

Doesn't trump have to sign it?

trump said he will sign the bill.

then he would declare the national emergency immediately. 

so it's possible that the bill passes, president signs it, then congress shuts down his national temper tantrum.

i mean, they won't, because the senate republicans have no spine, but, like buying a lottery ticket, it's fun to think about what would happen if that did happen.

[horncyclist 1386]

Just now, hayden_horn said:

trump said he will sign the bill.

then he would declare the national emergency immediately. 

so it's possible that the bill passes, president signs it, then congress shuts down his national temper tantrum.

i mean, they won't, because the senate republicans have no spine, but, like buying a lottery ticket, it's fun to think about what would happen if that did happen.

I meant wouldn't Trump have to sign a national emergency override? Isn't it otherwise a Congressional veto?

[hayden_horn 11362]

Just now, horncyclist said:

I meant wouldn't Trump have to sign a national emergency override? Isn't it otherwise a Congressional veto?

oh, i honestly do not know the answer to that question.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

He’s going to balk on the national emergency.

[Js1 85165]

 

[WhatTheBuck 28730]

2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Bullshit.  If she offered to peg you whilst reciting Ayn Rand, you would beg for the opportunity.

I'd be willing to bet than Ann Coulter has never read Ayn Rand.

1 hour ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

It involves listening to the entirety of John Galt's monologue.

And that putzes like Rand Paul who claim to be fans and call themselves libertarians never actually read the entire monologue. 

Edited February 14, 2019 by WhatTheBuck

[horncyclist 1386]

I found an answer to my own question:

Quote

By contrast, it would be straightforward for Congress to reverse a declaration of national emergency. The National Emergencies Act gives legislators authority to reject a presidential declaration of national emergency through simple legislation that would require majorities in the House and Senate. President Trump would presumably veto such action. Legislators would have the opportunity to override a presidential veto with a two-thirds majority vote. That of course would be no easy task in the current Congress.

http://theconversation.com/if-trump-declares-a-national-emergency-could-congress-or-the-courts-reverse-it-109752

So we're not talking about simple majorities for Congress to override. 2/3 would be difficult. This is all fucked up and dictator action. We'll see who actually believes in the constitution.

[suddenly shaggy 929]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He’s going to balk on the national emergency.

You've been wrong on this the whole time Hugo. The only important criteria for Trump are changing the narrative away from Russia and attacking his "enemies". He will declare a national emergency and the courts will shut it down. Trump will use that to attack and discredit the judicial system.

Meanwhile, no one will discuss Russia and the increasing evidence of his malfeasance. 

[David Dennison 18768]

1 minute ago, suddenly shaggy said:

You've been wrong on this the whole time Hugo. The only important criteria for Trump are changing the narrative away from Russia and attacking his "enemies". He will declare a national emergency and the courts will shut it down. Trump will use that to attack and discredit the judicial system.

Meanwhile, no one will discuss Russia and the increasing evidence of his malfeasance. 

You must not be up on what's going on with half of the electorate.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

Just now, suddenly shaggy said:

You've been wrong on this the whole time Hugo. The only important criteria for Trump are changing the narrative away from Russia and attacking his "enemies". He will declare a national emergency and the courts will shut it down. Trump will use that to attack and discredit the judicial system.

Meanwhile, no one will discuss Russia and the increasing evidence of his malfeasance. 

Actually I’ve been right on this whole time.  How long have people been saying Trump was about to declare a national emergency?  Six weeks?

I’ve been saying he wouldn’t the entire time.

He loses credible power by declaring a national emergency.   Once he declares a national emergency, that card expires.  

He will hold that card and threaten national emergency again when he needs a convenient distraction because the media can’t help themselves from taking the bait...

...like they did all day today.

Manafort who?  

I was also the only voice saying Trump wasn’t going to fire Mueller 20 months ago.

[horncyclist 1386]

Here's a good discussion of the legal issues with a national emergency declaration. It's not so obvious he would be ultimately blocked. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/08/how-supreme-court-might-rule-if-trump-declares-an-emergency-his-wall/?utm_term=.9f577f9ce976

This may be one of those cases where you see justices taking weird positions because their desired political outcome differs from their legal views. They'll first look to the statute to see if it defines' national emergency. It apparently doesn't. If this counts as a national emergency, then it means Congress basically granted completely discretion to the President to determine whether it's a national emergency or not, which raises a lot of constitutional issues. It's going to be a mess and ultimately decided by the Supreme Court. 

 

[David Dennison 18768]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Actually I’ve been right on this whole time.  How long have people been saying Trump was about to declare a national emergency?  Six weeks?

I’ve been saying he wouldn’t the entire time.

He loses credible power by declaring a national emergency.   Once he declares a national emergency, that card expires.  

He will hold that card and threaten national emergency again when he needs a convenient distraction because the media can’t help themselves from taking the bait...

...like they did all day today.

Manafort who?  

I was also the only voice saying Trump wasn’t going to fire Mueller 20 months ago.

Oh, you mean the guy that's been all over the news for the last 24 hours.

That guy?

[Jack Straw 2954]

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

No it won't. A dem would never do this, and if he/she tried, would never get away with it. Only the dotard can get away with this crap because he is supported by the largest cult in modern history.

This is my thought as well.  I guess I kinda get the argument that this move sets precedent for all kinds of hypothetical good stuff at some hypothetical point in the future, but I’m just having a hard time giving much of a fuck about or taking any comfort in any of that.  I want the bullshit that is going on now stopped dead in it’s tracks now, much more.  

[suddenly shaggy 929]

Watch the news and read a fucking paper troll. The lead story is the shutdown/emergency on all channels. Trump is a master at leading the media into a briar patch. 

[suddenly shaggy 929]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I was also the only voice saying Trump wasn’t going to fire Mueller 20 months ago.

You were wrong about that too. Trump tried to fire Mueller and doesn't have the authority. McGahn threatened to resign and he pussed out. 

[David Dennison 18768]

Just now, suddenly shaggy said:

Watch the news and read a fucking paper troll. The lead story is the shutdown/emergency on all channels. Trump is a master at leading the media into a briar patch. 

Followed closely by Manafort getting popped for lying followed by lots of legal and political analysis.

That'll probably still be here tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day.

Donald Trump is fucked. So is his family and nearly everyone who's worked for him. 

[suddenly shaggy 929]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Followed closely by Manafort getting popped for lying followed by lots of legal and political analysis.

That'll probably still be here tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day.

Donald Trump is fucked. So is his family and nearly everyone who's worked for him. 

The media will again get played and relegate all of it to third tier stories behind the latest Trump dipshit move du jour. The little coverage it gets will repeatedly fail to include proper context and detail, because the media was distracted by the shiny object. 

[Jack Straw 2954]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Donald Trump is fucked. 

I keep hearing this.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23366]

7 minutes ago, suddenly shaggy said:

You were wrong about that too. Trump tried to fire Mueller and doesn't have the authority. McGahn threatened to resign and he pussed out. 

Uh, factually Mueller was never fired.   

Since hero McGahn is now gone, why isn’t Mueller fired.

Trump also told Mattis to assassinate Assad... didn’t happen. 

Trump could have fired Mueller by tweet if he wanted, or at least tried...he didn’t. 

Edited February 15, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[David Dennison 18768]

Just now, suddenly shaggy said:

The media will again get played and relegate all of it to third tier stories behind the latest Trump dipshit move du jour. The little coverage it gets will repeatedly fail to include proper context and detail, because the media was distracted by the shiny object. 

Even if all of that were true, none of it matters to prosecutors.

[suddenly shaggy 929]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Uh, factually Mueller was never fired.   

Since hero McGahn is now gone, why isn’t Mueller fired.

Trump also to Mattis to assassinate Assad... didn’t happen. 

Trump could have fired Mueller by tweet if he wanted...he didn’t. 

He doesn't have the authority to fire Mueller, or he would have done it. McGahn is far from a hero, as you well know. The fact that McGahn actually stood up to Trump on that shows there is no wiggle room for Trump to fire Mueller. Trump has taken every other move in his power and fired everyone he has authority to fire.

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by suddenly shaggy
This is getting pretty far off the topic of the shutdown and wall at this point, so we should table it or move it to the appropriate thread.

[horncyclist 1386]

This is right: