Things not going well in Venezuela

[BamaATL 16,291]

9 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Guyana has reached out to its allies: USA, Brazil, UK and France.

Well that's all you hadta say...

I'm not sure how it's gonna help sending a guy and his pet Orangutan, but I'm all for it.  

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

I'm not sure how it's gonna help sending a guy and his pet Orangutan, but I'm all for it.  

Just need to say Right Turn Clyde. 

[Agent 13 314]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Guyana has reached out to its allies: USA, Brazil, UK and France.

Well that's all you hadta say...

Don't lie, you know you were all thinking it.

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

OK, so an invasion, or Venezuelan action would not be overlooked. Wonder why they did not bring up the Rio Treaty and why the OAS is so silent on this matter.

https://www.oas.org/juridico/english/treaties/b-29.html

Here is the Treaty.

Office of the Spokesperson

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Guyanese President Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali to reaffirm the United States’ unwavering support for Guyana’s sovereignty.  The Secretary reiterated the United States’ call for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and for all parties to respect the 1899 arbitral award determining the land boundary between Venezuela and Guyana, unless, or until, the parties reach a new agreement, or a competent legal body decides otherwise.  Secretary Blinken and President Ali noted the International Court of Justice order issued on December 1, which called for parties to refrain from any action that might aggravate or extend the dispute.  The Secretary reiterated that the United States looks forward to working closely with Guyana once it assumes its non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council in January 2024.  The two leaders concluded the call by agreeing upon the importance of maintaining a peaceful and democratic Western Hemisphere.

Edited December 7, 2023 by InkaUtexas
Added the treaty for PoliSci nerds.

[atomheartbevo 89,067]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

The Secretary reiterated the United States’ call for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and for all parties to respect the 1899 arbitral award determining the land boundary between Venezuela and Guyana

So if we're talking about borders from the 1800s..

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

Now do Africa. 

[27-25 2,030]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So if we're talking about borders from the 1800s..

And don't forget Harmon County.  The Texas border should be the North Fork of the Red River.  That would also make Darrel Royal a native Texan.  Wins all around.

[Trey3216 15,308]

11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So if we're talking about borders from the 1800s..

If we hurry we can still take Cheyenne.  

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

Interesting.

Also Guyana lost one of their Helicopters along the border yesterday. 

The United States said it will carry out military flights in Guyana on Thursday in a joint operation as the South American country faces soaring tensions with neighboring Venezuela over a contested oil-rich region.

"In collaboration with the Guyana Defence Force, the U.S. Southern Command will conduct flight operations within Guyana on December 7," the American embassy in Guyana said in a statement, noting the flights are part of "routine engagement" to enhance a security partnership between the two countries.

A border feud has recently spiraled over the oil-rich Essequibo region, controlled by Guyana for more than a century but which Venezuela also claims and has voiced intent to take over.

https://www.barrons.com/news/us-announces-military-air-exercises-in-guyana-amid-venezuela-tensions-3bca2752

[Bevo 13,440]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

"In collaboration with the Guyana Defence Force, the U.S. Southern Command will conduct flight operations within Guyana on December 7," the American embassy in Guyana said in a statement, noting the flights are part of "routine engagement" to enhance a security partnership between the two countries.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,067]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-venezuela-threatens-to-invade-oil-rich-guyana-us-worries-about-how-far-maduro-will-go/ar-AA1la33M

Long/good article, basically this is probably more a play about consolidating power/declaring martial law ahead of next year's elections, as well as distracting from Venezuela's economic problems.

Quote

enezuela’s threats to annex a majority of Guyana may be an effort by its leader to consolidate power at home ahead of a potential presidential election next year instead of a real intention to invade its neighbor, U.S. officials say. But Washington is increasingly concerned over how far Nicolas Maduro may be willing to go.

An internal State Department assessment, as well as the consensus of international observers and independent analysts, is that Maduro is seeking leverage against the United States at the negotiating table by threatening an invasion of western Guyana, a region rich in oil and gas that has been the subject of dispute between the two countries for over a century.

Quote

Maduro has been under U.S. sanctions for years for undermining Venezuelan democracy and is currently under pressure from Washington to hold free and fair elections.

The Biden administration is not seeing imminent signs of an invasion. But the possibility is raising anxiety levels in the region. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres on Wednesday called on Caracas to avoid the use of force and to respect the recent ruling of the International Court of Justice. The U.N. court last week called on Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would change Guyana’s control and administration of the Essequibo region, which remains part of a territorial dispute.

Quote

“The Secretary-General strongly supports the use of solely peaceful means to settle international disputes,” Guterres’ spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, said, confirming that the U.N. leader had spoken to Guyana’s president, Irfaan Ali, the previous evening over the latest escalation.

Quote

In Washington, concerns mounted that Venezuelan military action against Guyana could provide Maduro with an excuse to impose martial law in his troubled South American nation of 28 million, setting favorable conditions for himself in a sham presidential election next year, officials and experts said.

In October, the Biden administration announced an easing of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector as part of an elections deal between Maduro and the opposition. Washington said it would lift the sanctions if by Nov. 30 Maduro began the release of American hostages “wrongfully detained” by his government, and if he were to lift a ban that keeps opponents who want to run for president from serving in office. So far, Maduro has failed to comply with the deadline, with Maria Corina Machado, the winner of the opposition’s presidential primary, still barred from office.

Quote

“He wants to be able to consolidate power in a way in which he can be assured of a ‘sound victory’ when the elections are held next year,” said Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, a Guyana-born expert on security in the region.  Griffith said Maduro’s reactivation of the Venezuelan claim to the Essequibo territory in Guyana is also about trying to seize the oil discovered there in recent years.

On Tuesday, Maduro announced the creation of a military zone to be carved out of the Essequibo region, which accounts for three quarters of Guyana’s current land mass. The area was the subject of an 1899 decision by international arbiters that placed it under the control of what was then called British Guiana. Venezuela’s new military zone is among seven measures Maduro claims he’s been authorized to pursue following a Sunday referendum in which voters overwhelmingly supported his takeover of the dense jungle region that’s about the size of the state of Florida.

Quote

In addition to the measures, Maduro also ordered state-owned companies to grant licenses for the exploration and exploitation of oil, gas and mines in the territory.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday that President Joe Biden is aware of and monitoring the developments. “It’s concerning. We’re watching this very, very closely,” John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council in the White House, told reporters in a press briefing on Wednesday. “The [1899] decision needs to be respected. We obviously don’t want to see any violence occur here, or conflict occur, and we’re obviously in touch with all of our partners.”

Quote

Griffith, the security expert, said Maduro is “pushing the envelope on what I call the psychological warfare against Guyana that he’s engaging in, the military maneuver, the creation of a base, the seven measures he announced.”

Quote

The implications, he said, could also affect Brazil, which shares a border with both countries, and other nations in South America including Colombia, which has a border with Venezuela. Several of the nations in the region have decades-long claims about their own borders.

“If you have an opening of that Pandora’s box, there are a lot of countries that will rumble about their border. They’ll presume, ‘Can we revisit, can we revisit?’ he said. “The extent to which small and powerful friends of Guyana, people who are concerned about the respect for international law, people who are interested in peace and not instability, are able to signal directly and indirectly to Maduro that he has a certain line that he cannot cross, that will influence how far he’s willing to push the envelope,” Griffith said.

Quote

Oliver Stuenkel, an associate professor at the School of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo, thinks there are few political actors capable of restraining Venezuela, and said the crisis has become “potentially a headache for the Biden administration” and for South American leaders.

“It is quite humiliating for Brazil,” which wants to be a regional leader in helping to resolve conflicts, he added, because instead of turning to Brazil for help, Guyana’s president sought out the U.S. “Guyana has already reached out to the United States in part because it doesn’t believe Latin American governments are capable or willing to condemn Venezuela more forcefully or as a last resort, to actually defend Guyana,” Stuenkel said.

Quote

The crisis is a reflection of the limitations of Brazil’s influence in the region, he added, because “this is the kind of thing where a regional leader would step up and make sure this doesn’t continue.” Stunkel said he believes Maduro’s plan isn’t to actually invade “but to produce a sense of crisis, mobilize the population for as long as possible because he needs to divert attention from the economic” crisis in Venezuela.

“He now has a supposed mandate,” he said, noting that Maduro has even published a new map of Venezuela that includes a new state of Essequibo. “I continue to believe an actual conflict is unlikely, but it’s already had a lot of effects.”

 

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

Didn't they arrest the opposition opponent this past week ?

[Zepol87 9,029]

Miss my Venezuelan ex

[Gatorubet 29,792]

On 12/7/2023 at 10:37 AM, Trey3216 said:

If we hurry we can still take Cheyenne.  

Tell me you’ve never been to Cheyenne without telling me you’ve never been to Cheyenne.

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,067]

Perun has a great take on it, talking about the international players, how Venezuela would have issues (their armed forces are not big, and corruption and readiness issues abound), how Venezuela doesn’t have the naval forces to actually take the oil fields themselves.

And discussion of the players in the oil fields (US, China, etc.) who would not be keen on Venezuela fucking around.

 

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

The military controls the cities and plays army. The navy is a coast guard. They have been taught by the russians and cubans their doctrine. So basically steal from the troops and nation, make yourself as much as you can, and don't get thrown in jail.

If they move into Guyana Brazil is the one to watch.

But, there are territorial issues all over South and Central America. Peru and Ecuador still argue. Look up the Cenepa War.

 

[UTGrad98 2,221]

Covid really fucked with a lot of peoples heads. The human race keeps disappointing me. I thought our collective baseline intelligence was higher and yet here we are. 

[Trey3216 15,308]

On 12/8/2023 at 6:48 PM, Gatorubet said:

Tell me you’ve never been to Cheyenne without telling me you’ve never been to Cheyenne.

Tell me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation without telling me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation...   

[Gatorubet 29,792]

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Tell me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation without telling me you don't remember my frequent injection of song lyrics into conversation...   

I don’t remember. I don’t recall. I don’t remember anything at all.

[Schulz2.0 28,657]

The British deploy a ship to Guyana. Venezuela starts military exercises.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/28/venezuela-mounts-military-exercises-as-uk-sends-warship-to-support-guyana

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

Yeah, and Brazil is bitching about it. Meanwhile they are moving forces to the border with Guyana. Shit, imagine if Lula says fuck it, moves in to protect his highway and Guyana's sovereignty. I would rather be under Brazil control than Venezuela.

[SamsCorner 395]

On 12/6/2023 at 4:01 PM, Parliament said:

Guyana has reached out to its allies: USA, Brazil, UK and France.

Well that's all you hadta say...

Worst movie about Marines ever made.

[bolverk 29,108]

Apparently, Venezuela is going to the polls. I haven't seen any discussion about this, but there appears to be real opposition to Maduro.

I know this is technically a political post, but I honestly don't think it's too controversial to be discussed as news and I'm pretty sure we're all in agreement on the preferred outcome.

 

If you care to follow along, AP has plenty of live updates at the link:

Venezuela election live updates: Maduro faces biggest opposition yet, ex-diplomat and political newcomer González

Venezuela’s government is facing its toughest electoral test in decades. The outcome will either lead to a seismic shift in politics or extend the policies that caused the world’s worst peacetime economic collapse by six more years.

Whether it is President Nicolás Maduro who is chosen, or his main opponent, former diplomat Edmundo González, the election will have ripple effects throughout the Americas.

For years, opposition politicians boycotted elections they saw as rigged, but as the government’s popularity has ebbed former rivals have banded together in an attempt to change the government at the ballot box.

 

This one is perhaps pertinent to US interests:

 

[atomheartbevo 89,067]

38 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Apparently, Venezuela is going to the polls. I haven't seen any discussion about this, but there appears to be real opposition to Maduro.

I saw something yesterday about cops trying to clear out people lining up for the polls, but nothing was verified.

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

Those who follow Latin America are following closely. Has regional implications.

Recently Maduro claimed the cities would run red if he lost, or some dictator shit like that.

 

Lula raises alarm over Maduro’s ‘bloodbath’ warning to Venezuela

Brazilian leader says he was ‘frightened’ by counterpart’s warnings of ‘bloodbath’ if he loses to Edmundo González

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/22/lula-maduro-venezuela-election-result

[bolverk 29,108]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I saw something yesterday about cops trying to clear out people lining up for the polls, but nothing was verified.

Scrolling through the updates, I haven't seen a whole of reports of bad shit going on. It sounds like things are mostly calm but still some fuckery.

 

I'm not sure you can really take this guy's word for anything. Take it for what it's worth (also from AP updates)

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

I believe that Maduro has said he isn’t leaving office and is ready to go to war to stay in power. 

[Js1 83,688]

We’ll see

UK and French exits were pretty good 

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

Do they still vote with soldiers watching you mark your ballot ?

Who’s counting the ballots ?  He already banned election observers 

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I believe that Maduro has said he isn’t leaving office and is ready to go to war to stay in power. 

referred to in the article I linked above.

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

10 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Do they still vote with soldiers watching you mark your ballot ?

Who’s counting the ballots ?  He already banned election observers 

Again, read the article. Lula is sending one of his boys. A lot of groups are going in as monitors/observers from the OAS to Cuba. Do they really matter when the army says um, nope?

[bolverk 29,108]

Fuckery's afoot. Sounds like they're doing some after-voting ballot-stuffing.

From AP updates:

Opposition calls on authorities to close the polls and begin counting ballots
Venezuela’s opposition is calling on authorities to close the polls and begin counting ballots.

By law, polling centers should close at 6 p.m. but they also must remain open if there are voters still in line.

At 6:11 p.m. opposition leader María Corina Machado took to social media to demand the National Electoral Council shut down the more than 15,000 voting centers nationwide.

“If there’s nobody in line, the voting booths must close,” she said. “It’s time to see how your votes are counted, ballot by ballot.”

Fifteen minutes past the closing time about 40 people were met by an armed soldier, a member of a people’s militia, and other members of the armed forces when they requested access to a voting center in the low-income neighborhood of Catia to witness the vote counting process as allowed by law. They were told they could not enter because people were still voting, yet no voters could be seen inside and the members of the armed forces and electoral authority representatives refused to close the site.

Minutes later, gang members affiliated with the government showed up on motorcycles to intimidate people trying to witness the vote count.

 

Venezuelans demand polls to close
People at various voting centers in Caracas were demanding poll workers to close the polls one hour after they were supposed to have done so.

At a center in the Catia neighborhood, engineer Alejandro Varzzani, 30, said the refusal to close centers shows that shows the ruling party and its supports are worried. “They are fearful,” he said.

As they waited for the center to close, they sang the song “Venezuela” together — considered the country’s unofficial anthem.

A government supporter yelled “Let’s go, Nico,” referring to President Nicolás Maduro.

[Macanudo 12,798]

I saw a headline a few days ago that depending on how the election goes, as much as 25% of the population might try to leave Venezuela.   That's 7 miliion people.   Oof.

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

He’ll claim victory, while reminding everyone they have cheap gas 

scream fraud. His hand picked judges will agree

arrest the opposition. if they’re lucky, he’ll let them leave the country in excile

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

Didn’t he do about the same the last election 

Edited July 29 by tx 3 putt

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

13 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I saw a headline a few days ago that depending on how the election goes, as much as 25% of the population might try to leave Venezuela.   That's 7 miliion people.   Oof.

 

[Gucci_Suit 2,580]

22 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Instead of U.S. they should just say Katy. Which is lovely to be able to scoop some arepas on the way into Houston. 

[Brisketexan 103,659]

Instead of U.S. they should just say Katy. Which is lovely to be able to scoop some arepas on the way into Houston. 

Man…I wish I liked arepas more. Every one I’ve had is just a bit bland.

[Armybrat 40,561]

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Who’s counting the ballots ?  

Captain Obvious.

[CycleTex87 2,945]

Katyzuela….

[BurntEyes 5,654]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Recently Maduro claimed the cities would run red if he lost, or some dictator shit like that.

No diminishing the situation in any way, but I read this and couldn't stop laughing.

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

 

[achooloco 963]

All day the Venezuelans have been chanting and parading around the city. Saw large caravans or groups walking from queens to manhattan. Good for them

[atomheartbevo 89,067]

35 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Captain Obvious.

Who reports to Major Disorder, who sends it up the chain to General Chaos.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,306]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

A communist dictator cheating? Color me shocked

[InkaUtexas 24,934]

1 hour ago, achooloco said:

All day the Venezuelans have been chanting and parading around the city. Saw large caravans or groups walking from queens to manhattan. Good for them

Yeah, that is cool. But at some point they need to do that shit at home like those who stayed are trying.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,306]

All results pointed to a 66-28 margin and loss for Maduro. But they stopped the counting and announced that Maduro has won. He has surrounded his house with the military. 

[Brisketexan 103,659]

All results pointed to a 66-28 margin and loss for Maduro. But they stopped the counting and announced that Maduro has won. He has surrounded his house with the military. 

He needs to die.
Such is always the way of autocrats, right or left. You remove them from office by removing them from the ranks of the living. It’s why it is always a very, very bad idea to install an autocrat.

[tx 3 putt 75,582]

Thing could be on the Verge of Boiling Over in Venezuela; with Presidential Election Results so far showing that Opposition Candidate, Edmundo González has Won by a Landslide against Nicolás Maduro, who was been President of Venezuela since 2013. This is despite a “Sea of Reports” about Election Intimidation by Members of the Maduro Party against Voters, with many Venezuelans Abroad being Refused Entry into the Country, making them unable to Vote. The Maduro Party is now claiming Election Fraud and Interference by several Countries including the United States, who had Politicians such as Republican Senator Marco Rubio give Messages of Support to the Opposition Voters.