Things not going well in Venezuela

[Brisketexan 103657]

I’m sold on whatever she’s arguing !!!
[/url]
 
 

She makes a couple of really good points.

[tx 3 putt 75571]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

She makes a couple of really good points.

don’t poke an eye out 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

When you're mad at Panama, DR and CR, YOU are the asshole.  Nobody hates those guys.

Who are they going to play baseball with? That will create a coup faster than democracy.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

I volunteer to be her medic.

[tx 3 putt 75571]

 

[Viper 11955]

45 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I’m sold on whatever she’s arguing !!! Little chilly down there, it is winter time

 

 

 

No one ever accused putt of being a geography major, even if he is a fan of grand tetons 

[Marshall_Lucky 624]

48 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

don’t poke an eye out 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

Interesting development.

Thousands of Venezuelans are heading towards the presidential palace in Caracas to protest against President Nicolás Maduro's claim of victory in the country's disputed election.

Others posted pictures of the crowds on social media with captions including “knock down the dictator” and “everyone to Miraflores” - where the palace is located.

The BBC has seen an armed military convoy travelling to the presidential palace, with soldiers in balaclavas standing on the back of the cars carrying large rifles.

Tear gas was fired by police as protests erupted in the Venezuelan capital the day after Mr Maduro claimed he had won.

The opposition has disputed Mr Maduro's declaration of victory as fraudulent, saying its candidate Edmundo González won convincingly with 73.2% of the vote.

Opinion polls ahead of the election suggested a clear victory for the challenger.

Opposition parties had united behind Mr González in an attempt to unseat President Maduro after 11 years in power, amid widespread discontent over the country's economic crisis.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw5yze5k500o

[tx 3 putt 75571]

Shots fired ….

 

[SimonBolivar 10698]

12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Commie.

Bolivar got my vote.

Thanks

[The Dog 43491]

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10010]

 

[KYHorn 16728]

 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

This is an interesting development. Keep in mind though, the NG is a paramilitary group. They are not equipped to take on the Army. They were designed to control protests and protect installations.

it is symbolic, but if the Army does not switch, and it would be at the Captain level down, Maduro can keep power, even if illegitimate. Narco flights will keep coming in, oil will keep being exported.

I am watching to see if the oil unions walk off the oil fields and refineries.

[tx 3 putt 75571]

 

 

[BamaATL 16289]

This is barely being covered by our media, and it's shameful.  We are about to see either a revolution, or a blood bath, either way, it's deserving of serious scrutiny.  

[Armybrat 40559]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is barely being covered by our media, and it's shameful.  We are about to see either a revolution, or a blood bath, either way, it's deserving of serious scrutiny.  

Just like the ignored uprising in Cuba recently.

Can hardly wait to hear Sean Penn’s comments, or is he too busy shooting tear gas at the protesters?

Edited July 30 by Armybrat

[InkaUtexas 24933]

Wonder if any of the athletes in the Olympics will do anything.

[AUS-97HORN 11558]

this has the ugly makings of a Tiananmen Square moment.  except its going to continue being broadcast on social media unlike the Chinese takedown of the square

[AUS-97HORN 11558]

I pray for there to be a moment where Maduro realizes its over and he fucking heads to switzerland to live out the rest of his life

[InkaUtexas 24933]

It would be Russia, not Switzerland.

[BamaATL 16289]

Just now, AUS-97HORN said:

I pray for there to be a moment where Maduro realizes its over and he fucking heads to switzerland to live out the rest of his life

Rarely is that how this plays out, unfortunately.  Ordinary people have to risk it all to defeat tyranny, and the consequences are life or death.  

[InkaUtexas 24933]

11AM tomorrow will be interesting for sure. Will Maduro use the time to hit them?

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — As thousands of people demonstrated across Venezuela, opposition candidate Edmundo González on Monday announced that his campaign has the proof it needs to show he won the country’s disputed election whose victory electoral authorities handed to President Nicolás Maduro.

González and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told reporters they have obtained more than 70% of tally sheets from Sunday’s election, and they show González with more than double Maduro’s votes. Both called on people, some of whom protested in the hours after Maduro was declared winner, to remain calm and invited them to gather peacefully at 11 a.m. Tuesday to celebrate the results.

“I speak to you with the calmness of the truth,” González said as dozens of supporters cheered outside campaign headquarters in the capital, Caracas. “We have in our hands the tally sheets that demonstrate our categorical and mathematically irreversible victory.”

Their announcement came after the National Electoral Council, which is loyal to Maduro’s ruling Unites Socialist Party of Venezuela, officially declared him the winner, handing him his third six-year term.

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-results-acee6c8cd3a8fc88086c2dd71963b759

[atomheartbevo 89059]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

This is an interesting development. Keep in mind though, the NG is a paramilitary group. They are not equipped to take on the Army. They were designed to control protests and protect installations.

it is symbolic, but if the Army does not switch, and it would be at the Captain level down, Maduro can keep power, even if illegitimate. Narco flights will keep coming in, oil will keep being exported.

I am watching to see if the oil unions walk off the oil fields and refineries.

Yeah, there's 28 million people in Venezuela, and about 110,000 or so members in the military on paper.  I've seen the Army itself is around 60,000, but I would be surprised if 30,000 or more were actual combat troops - looking at their structure, they have a lot of aviation units, lots of non-combat stuff (engineers, medical, military schools, etc.) and all of the bureaucrats one would expect.  And for all we know, it's a sham, and somebody is skimming the books and claiming thousands more soldiers than are actual present, and collecting the paychecks for the phantom soldiers. 

We'll say there's 1 actual combat-trained soldier for every 1,000 Venezuelans, and I'm being generous, because there's going to be plenty of soldiers who want nothing to do with this stuff depending on if they were conscripted or not.  That's not very good odds for the military.

That paramilitary is supposed to number 200,000+ and that could be the real power for Maduro, however I bet more than a few slink away if they think he's going to lose.  Those types' loyalty drives up pretty fucking fast when the bandwagon they are hitched to starts to flip over.

[atomheartbevo 89059]

49 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is barely being covered by our media, and it's shameful.  We are about to see either a revolution, or a blood bath, either way, it's deserving of serious scrutiny.  

And the bummer is that they are almost in the same timezone as us, so we don't have to have this shit play out while we sleep - the media could be running live streams from cameras in the capitol and covering it in real time.  You can't tell me that wouldn't make for dramatic reporting to cut over to a reporter that's watching a firefight.

Unfortunately major American news organizations are not as big as they once were for financial reasons, and the majority are probably at the Olympics.

 

[atomheartbevo 89059]

No idea how accurate this is

 

 

[Brisketexan 103657]

No idea how accurate this is
 
 

We’ll find out if it matters…when they need to engage in firefights with loyalist units.
Defecting military helps. Defecting military that’s willing to fight - or at least demonstrate plausible willingness to their loyalist brothers - is what it will likely take to make the full change.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, there's 28 million people in Venezuela, and about 110,000 or so members in the military on paper.  I've seen the Army itself is around 60,000, but I would be surprised if 30,000 or more were actual combat troops - looking at their structure, they have a lot of aviation units, lots of non-combat stuff (engineers, medical, military schools, etc.) and all of the bureaucrats one would expect.  And for all we know, it's a sham, and somebody is skimming the books and claiming thousands more soldiers than are actual present, and collecting the paychecks for the phantom soldiers. 

We'll say there's 1 actual combat-trained soldier for every 1,000 Venezuelans, and I'm being generous, because there's going to be plenty of soldiers who want nothing to do with this stuff depending on if they were conscripted or not.  That's not very good odds for the military.

That paramilitary is supposed to number 200,000+ and that could be the real power for Maduro, however I bet more than a few slink away if they think he's going to lose.  Those types' loyalty drives up pretty fucking fast when the bandwagon they are hitched to starts to flip over.

The National Guard is about 40K if I remember right. There are other paramilitary groups, like neighborhood militias, etc. Then you have the Colectivos,who are not "government" but subsidized. But these groups would not stand up to any real force.

The largest force is the militia. Here is the Wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolivarian_Militia_of_Venezuela

2019 Newsweek article on the armed forces states the information below. funny, did not see any good breakdowns.

The country's armed forces have around 515,000 personnel, including roughly frontline 130,000 troops. On land, Venezuela has 696 combat tanks, along with 700 armored fighting vehicles.

At sea, the nation is much more limited, with only 50 naval assets. Venezuela has 3 frigates, 4 corvettes and 2 submarines, but has no aircraft carriers or destroyers. In the air, the country has 280 aircraft, including 42 fighter jets.

Like most armies in Latin America, few have a solid and EXPERIENCED combat arms cadre.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

No idea how accurate this is

 

 

That is national guard. I have not seen anythign showing the Army has left the barracks. And the Captains are the one to watch. A few Colonels might call for action one way or another, but the Captains and Lieutenants control the troops and armories.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3306]

27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, there's 28 million people in Venezuela, and about 110,000 or so members in the military on paper.  I've seen the Army itself is around 60,000, but I would be surprised if 30,000 or more were actual combat troops - looking at their structure, they have a lot of aviation units, lots of non-combat stuff (engineers, medical, military schools, etc.) and all of the bureaucrats one would expect.  And for all we know, it's a sham, and somebody is skimming the books and claiming thousands more soldiers than are actual present, and collecting the paychecks for the phantom soldiers. 

We'll say there's 1 actual combat-trained soldier for every 1,000 Venezuelans, and I'm being generous, because there's going to be plenty of soldiers who want nothing to do with this stuff depending on if they were conscripted or not.  That's not very good odds for the military.

That paramilitary is supposed to number 200,000+ and that could be the real power for Maduro, however I bet more than a few slink away if they think he's going to lose.  Those types' loyalty drives up pretty fucking fast when the bandwagon they are hitched to starts to flip over.

Didnt they ban and confiscate guns for citizens in Venezuela. That is a huge advantage for the military. An unarmed populace is much easier to defeat. 

[atomheartbevo 89059]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We’ll find out if it matters…when they need to engage in firefights with loyalist units.
Defecting military helps. Defecting military that’s willing to fight - or at least demonstrate plausible willingness to their loyalist brothers - is what it will likely take to make the full change.

The civilians don't seem to be backing down.  Again, this is flying around social media so accuracy is hard to judge, obviously it's in Venezuela, but I don't speak the language very good any more.

 

Edited July 30 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89059]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

That is national guard. I have not seen anythign showing the Army has left the barracks. And the Captains are the one to watch. A few Colonels might call for action one way or another, but the Captains and Lieutenants control the troops and armories.

Seems like they should have left the barracks well before now, rather than let people continue to gather.

[BamaATL 16289]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We’ll find out if it matters…when they need to engage in firefights with loyalist units.
Defecting military helps. Defecting military that’s willing to fight - or at least demonstrate plausible willingness to their loyalist brothers - is what it will likely take to make the full change.

Until Maduro is dead or confirmed on a flight to Moscow, this will still likely get extremely ugly.  

[InkaUtexas 24933]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And the bummer is that they are almost in the same timezone as us, so we don't have to have this shit play out while we sleep - the media could be running live streams from cameras in the capitol and covering it in real time.  You can't tell me that wouldn't make for dramatic reporting to cut over to a reporter that's watching a firefight.

Unfortunately major American news organizations are not as big as they once were for financial reasons, and the majority are probably at the Olympics.

 

I don't see much reporting on the Latin American news either.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Seems like they should have left the barracks well before now, rather than let people continue to gather.

Nah, the Colonels are sitting back to see where the winds are heading. The military is political in nature and Chavez made it that way. That is why I point at the lower officer ranks. They have yet to really benefit from the Chavista system and are more susceptible to say fuck it, lets kick these assholes out. Colonels and Generals? Nah, they already picked a side.

Also remember the Venezuelans have not fought a war in a long ass time. So there really are no Combat leaders.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The civilians don't seem to be backing down.  Again, this is flying around social media so accuracy is hard to judge, obviously it's in Venezuela, but I don't speak the language very good any more.

 

Not missing much. The threats to the regime are poor youth, students and the unions. Sadly the unions are in the government's pocket.

[BamaATL 16289]

If this goes down, the good news is that in the long term they have oil, and they should be able to build at the very least economy based upon it's export (obviously they will need to diversify beyond that).  However, in the short term they will need immediate assistance to get on their feet.   I'm sure the wheels are spinning in Washington at the moment for this, but I wonder if the South American countries have the ability to lend assistance or the willingness.  The IMF I presume would also step in to lend assistance.  

Cart before the horse, though.  I just hope if the western hemisphere gets this chance to help these people we don't fuck it up by politicking.  

[Blotto 23293]

6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

I’m sold on whatever she’s arguing !!! Little chilly down there, it is winter time

 

 

[Gravy Train 970]

27 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Didnt they ban and confiscate guns for citizens in Venezuela. That is a huge advantage for the military. An unarmed populace is much easier to defeat. 

Yes, private gun ownership was outlawed in 2012 and by 2018, the penalty for illegal firearm posession was raised to 20 years imprisonment.  Now it seems as if dey shootin':

 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

13 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If this goes down, the good news is that in the long term they have oil, and they should be able to build at the very least economy based upon it's export (obviously they will need to diversify beyond that).  However, in the short term they will need immediate assistance to get on their feet.   I'm sure the wheels are spinning in Washington at the moment for this, but I wonder if the South American countries have the ability to lend assistance or the willingness.  The IMF I presume would also step in to lend assistance.  

Cart before the horse, though.  I just hope if the western hemisphere gets this chance to help these people we don't fuck it up by politicking.  

Yes, they have oil, and traditionally life was similar. Corruption was rampant which is why Chavez had the coups. There is not much to diversify. Coastal plain, hills, jungle. Are they going to compete with Colombia and Brazil for agriculture exports?

Yes, they do to a certain extent. Main way is not expel any immigrants in their countries. IMF dumps cash, usually leading to a new round of rich, but not much investment where it is needed.

same here, but traditionally Latin America takes a fuck it attitude to their neighbors unless it directly impacts them.

 

[BamaATL 16289]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes, they have oil, and traditionally life was similar. Corruption was rampant which is why Chavez had the coups. There is not much to diversify. Coastal plain, hills, jungle. Are they going to compete with Colombia and Brazil for agriculture exports?

Yes, they do to a certain extent. Main way is not expel any immigrants in their countries. IMF dumps cash, usually leading to a new round of rich, but not much investment where it is needed.

same here, but traditionally Latin America takes a fuck it attitude to their neighbors unless it directly impacts them.

 

What about resorts for the beaches and a tourism draw?  I know many of the cruises do Curacao, skip Venezuela, and go to Cartegena.  Getting into that business in the Northern part could be a big pick up.  

[InkaUtexas 24933]

Just now, BamaATL said:

What about resorts for the beaches and a tourism draw?  I know many of the cruises do Curacao, skip Venezuela, and go to Cartegena.  Getting into that business in the Northern part could be a big pick up.  

From my memory, and I was young last time I was there, it is muddy and a delta. Why go there when there are nice places.

And tourism is not that great for economies. It benefits few locals and the government.

[BamaATL 16289]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

From my memory, and I was young last time I was there, it is muddy and a delta. Why go there when there are nice places.

And tourism is not that great for economies. It benefits few locals and the government.

Could we convince American development groups to assist/operate, using a local work force for construction and operations?  

[Blotto 23293]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

From my memory, and I was young last time I was there, it is muddy and a delta. Why go there when there are nice places.

And tourism is not that great for economies. It benefits few locals and the government.

I dont know....this place seems pretty sweet

[InkaUtexas 24933]

3 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I dont know....this place seems pretty sweet

Yep, but there is a lot of this.

[tx 3 putt 75571]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

11AM tomorrow will be interesting for sure. Will Maduro use the time to hit them?

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — As thousands of people demonstrated across Venezuela, opposition candidate Edmundo González on Monday announced that his campaign has the proof it needs to show he won the country’s disputed election whose victory electoral authorities handed to President Nicolás Maduro.

González and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told reporters they have obtained more than 70% of tally sheets from Sunday’s election, and they show González with more than double Maduro’s votes. Both called on people, some of whom protested in the hours after Maduro was declared winner, to remain calm and invited them to gather peacefully at 11 a.m. Tuesday to celebrate the results.

“I speak to you with the calmness of the truth,” González said as dozens of supporters cheered outside campaign headquarters in the capital, Caracas. “We have in our hands the tally sheets that demonstrate our categorical and mathematically irreversible victory.”

Their announcement came after the National Electoral Council, which is loyal to Maduro’s ruling Unites Socialist Party of Venezuela, officially declared him the winner, handing him his third six-year term.

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-results-acee6c8cd3a8fc88086c2dd71963b759

‘proof’

 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Could we convince American development groups to assist/operate, using a local work force for construction and operations?  

That is the usual approach. USAID and State already have programs in the region to do that. There is still a lot of corruption. Rebuilding is not the issue, the country is not destroyed (yet), but where do you find the technocrats to run it? From this same government. It has been a long time with the Chavistas in power. There were stories of the oil and gas experts being fired and replaced by party hacks. Economy ala USSR model.

So how to solve it? And glad to talk rebuilding but we are no where close to that discussion. For now, should Maduro's government fall, 1- BEG the other governments to not send the people back right away. 2- Diversify education. 3- Restore public utilities.

One thing that would happen should Maduro leave, Sanctions would be lifted.

[BamaATL 16289]

Given that oil is the big fish, I wonder if they'd be better off immediately suspending the use of their currency in favor of the US dollar (a la Ecuador or I thinks its El Salvador that already do this).  It would allow them to trade in dollars within their own borders with a stable currency far more quickly than trying to stabilize their own.    

[atomheartbevo 89059]

47 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I don't see much reporting on the Latin American news either.

Probably assumed it was going to be like the last couple of elections, or they know that in this situation, the Maduro loyalists are going to kill journalists.

26 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Now it seems as if dey shootin':

Again, my Spanish is extremely rusty.  Maybe somebody else can verify this.

 

Venezuela’s Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López: "We call on the citizens and political forces of the country to remain calm and stay in the democratic game. Yesterday the Venezuelan people decided and gave us a demonstration of civility. Let's not fail those people who voted for peace yesterday!"
 

The National Guard and police reportedly walk by and watch as Venezuelan protesters tear down images of Maduro and Hugo Chávez.

[atomheartbevo 89059]

live look inside that police trailer

 

Also, shit's getting crazy, there are videos popping up of civilians with guns looking for Maduro's people.