Things not going well in Venezuela

[atomheartbevo 89625]

6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Mayhaps.....they have 22 SU-30s and 20 F-16s.  That ain't a stout air force.  Air superiority/supremacy is something that an opposing force of any size could get a handle on pretty quickly.

I'd bet that a quarter or maybe half of those SU-30s are hangar queens. It's not that easy to maintain an air force that small, as odd as it may seem - chances are they aren't swimming in parts and they aren't going to have the ability to do extensive/long-term maintenance in large numbers and in parallel because they don't need them on a day-to-day basis.  If say 3-4 had serious issues (engine overhauls needed, etc.), they could probably only work on one or two at a time.  I also doubt they have gotten any SU-30 parts out of Russia in the past two years.

As for the F-16s (I think 3-4 have been lost), their F-16s entered service in 1982-1984.  The Israelis upgraded them in the 1990s, but they bought the SU-30s as replacements 15 years ago because they couldn't get parts for the F-16s due to sanctions. I'm guessing they haven't been able to get F-16 parts for nearly 25 years at minimum - they were going to get a couple of upgraded F-16s from the US in the late 90s but that was stopped, so I'm guessing around then.

On a side note, Brazil has over 40 F-5s, and they've been upgrading them since the 1970s, and the last round was 3-4 years ago.  One of those odd things - aircraft you don't expect to still see on active duty.  They've got a large, but frugal (and tailored) air force.

Edited November 29, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[elfenix 34223]

44 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

exxon works with shadow companies to help their causes 

if guyana was really smart, they'd ask china for some muscle / help 

venezuela is already in bed with china so not sure that would work out well for guyana:

Quote

However, China and Russia have continued to voice support for Maduro and have accused of the US of interfering in Venezuela's domestic affairs amid the ongoing turmoil.^[10][11] Iran has also condemned US threats,^[12] while a few Latin American countries such as Cuba and Bolivia^[9] also continue to back the Maduro administration.^[13] On the other hand, the ROC was among the several countries to support Juan Guaidó and the opposition-led National Assembly in its calls to restore democracy. Through its Twitter account, the Foreign Ministry quoted that "Taiwan stands with the forces of freedom" while calling for "the democratic order to be restored" in Venezuela.^[14]

In February 2019, China alongside Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for new presidential elections in Venezuela.^[15]

During the crisis in Venezuela, China supplied riot-control equipment to Venezuelan authorities combatting the protests in Venezuela.^[16] According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, China has also financially assisted Venezuela through its economic crisis.^[17]

 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

12 hours ago, DoobieWah said:

Why do need a "referendum" to "annex" something you already claim?

We've already seen the military commanders saying they are ready to take it, even before there is a vote in Venezuela, but they held a mock referendum earlier this month, but didn't release the results or how many people showed up...

Quote

Maduro’s government held a mock referendum Nov. 19 to get voters acquainted with the issue, but it has not said how many voters participated or what the results were. Officials also have not offered a timetable or specific steps on how they would turn the Essequibo region into a Venezuelan state and grant area residents citizenship should voters approve the proposed measures.

I talked to my dad about it - he's worked down in that area in O&G exploration, but prior to the 2015 discoveries, and he's got friends down in that area, both native to the area, but also Americans contracting down there.  Everybody seems to feel like Venezuela may try and pull this off.  

His friends in Venezuela feel like the vote won't matter, and some of them are worried this will get them in a serious war, because Maduro has been clashing with American, British, and South American leaders since he took office, and there's already plenty of sanctions, but he seems to be not giving any fucks anymore - he's trying to hit all of the patriotic buttons.  HIs American friends down there think it could lead military action of some sort if the Venezuelans try to seize any ships or oil infrastructure.  They've long made plans about what to do if Venezuela tries to seize anything, but are revisiting them and making sure they've got processes in place.  Definitely some fuck around and find out vibes going on.

ExxonMobil's discoveries/fields

 

[Parliament 14239]

So they're doing it for oil/gas.  Don't they have plenty of reserves already? No foreign country is gonna invest in extracting O&G when Venezuela is in charge.

ETA

And if western countries' O&G companies have investments there I don't see us just letting it happen.  For that matter why can't Exxon hire Blackwater, et. al. to help?  They're all aholes.  Seems they'd be willing to get dirty.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Parliament

[Viper 12101]

Damn didn't realize they're trying to conquer most of the Guyana

Here is a brief explanation for those who are unfamiliar with the situation 

 

The Guayana Esequiba is a region of about 159,500 km2 (61,600 sq mi) west of the Essequibo River that is currently administered and controlled by Guyana, but claimed by Venezuela as part of its territory. The dispute dates back to the colonial era, when Spain and the Netherlands competed for the control of the area. In 1814, the Netherlands ceded its colonies of Essequibo, Demerara, and Berbice to Britain, which later unified them into British Guiana. Venezuela inherited the Spanish claim to the region after its independence in 1811, but Britain expanded its control further west of the Essequibo River in the 19th century. 

 

In 1895, Venezuela sought the help of the United States to resolve the border dispute with Britain, invoking the Monroe Doctrine, which declared the American continent as off-limits to European intervention. The US intervened and forced Britain to accept an international arbitration of the entire disputed territory. The arbitration tribunal, convened in Paris in 1898, awarded most of the territory to British Guiana in 1899. However, Venezuela later denounced the award as invalid, alleging that the tribunal was biased and corrupted by British influence. 

 

The dispute remained unresolved after Guyana gained its independence from Britain in 1966. Venezuela has since maintained its claim to the Guayana Esequiba, and has occasionally resorted to military and diplomatic pressure to assert its sovereignty over the region. Venezuela also rejected the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to settle the dispute, and instead proposed a bilateral negotiation with Guyana.

 

The Guayana Esequiba is rich in natural resources, such as oil, gas, gold, diamonds, and timber, which have attracted the interest of both countries and foreign companies. In recent years, Guyana has granted exploration and production licenses to several multinational corporations, such as ExxonMobil, to exploit the offshore oil and gas reserves in the disputed waters. Venezuela has protested against these activities, and has accused Guyana of violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

 

The tension between the two countries has escalated in the context of the political and economic crisis in Venezuela, which has led to the deterioration of its relations with its neighbors and the international community. Venezuela has been accused of human rights violations, corruption, authoritarianism, and interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Venezuela has also faced several challenges to its legitimacy, such as the Venezuelan presidential crisis, which resulted in the emergence of two rival governments: one led by Nicolás Maduro, who claims to be the constitutional president, and another led by Juan Guaidó, who claims to be the interim president recognized by more than 50 countries, including Brazil. 

 

Brazil, as the largest and most influential country in South America, has played an important role in the regional affairs and the resolution of conflicts. Brazil has historically maintained cordial and cooperative relations with both Guyana and Venezuela, and has supported the peaceful and diplomatic settlement of the dispute over the Guayana Esequiba. However, Brazil's position has changed significantly under the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, who has adopted a more confrontational and ideological stance against Venezuela and its allies. 

 

Bolsonaro has aligned himself with the US and other countries that recognize Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela, and has denounced Maduro as a dictator and a threat to the regional stability and democracy. Bolsonaro has also expressed his support for Guyana's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and has criticized Venezuela's claims and actions as aggressive and illegitimate. 

 

According to some reports, the Brazilian armed forces have been placed into a heightened state of readiness due to a significant movement of military equipment and personnel in eastern Venezuela on the border of Guyana, which has recently been detected by satellite imagery and intelligence sources. Some officials believe that Venezuela may soon invade the small South American country in order to annex the Guayana Esequiba region, which accounts for over 60% of the nation's territory and has been claimed by the Venezuelan government. 

 

If this scenario materializes, it could trigger a major regional conflict that would involve not only Guyana and Venezuela, but also Brazil and other neighboring countries, as well as the US and other international actors.

 

[Samson's Wig 3191]

You've just got to love all of the territory grabs taking place worldwide.  Things worked out well the last time this sort of thing came into vogue. 

[MissingInAction 25006]

WW3: Nuclear Boogaloo

[Ghost of LL 15531]

42 minutes ago, Viper said:

Damn didn't realize they're trying to conquer most of the Guyana

Here is a brief explanation for those who are unfamiliar with the situation 

 

The Guayana Esequiba is a region of about 159,500 km2 (61,600 sq mi) west of the Essequibo River that is currently administered and controlled by Guyana, but claimed by Venezuela as part of its territory. The dispute dates back to the colonial era, when Spain and the Netherlands competed for the control of the area. In 1814, the Netherlands ceded its colonies of Essequibo, Demerara, and Berbice to Britain, which later unified them into British Guiana. Venezuela inherited the Spanish claim to the region after its independence in 1811, but Britain expanded its control further west of the Essequibo River in the 19th century. 

 

In 1895, Venezuela sought the help of the United States to resolve the border dispute with Britain, invoking the Monroe Doctrine, which declared the American continent as off-limits to European intervention. The US intervened and forced Britain to accept an international arbitration of the entire disputed territory. The arbitration tribunal, convened in Paris in 1898, awarded most of the territory to British Guiana in 1899. However, Venezuela later denounced the award as invalid, alleging that the tribunal was biased and corrupted by British influence. 

 

The dispute remained unresolved after Guyana gained its independence from Britain in 1966. Venezuela has since maintained its claim to the Guayana Esequiba, and has occasionally resorted to military and diplomatic pressure to assert its sovereignty over the region. Venezuela also rejected the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to settle the dispute, and instead proposed a bilateral negotiation with Guyana.

 

The Guayana Esequiba is rich in natural resources, such as oil, gas, gold, diamonds, and timber, which have attracted the interest of both countries and foreign companies. In recent years, Guyana has granted exploration and production licenses to several multinational corporations, such as ExxonMobil, to exploit the offshore oil and gas reserves in the disputed waters. Venezuela has protested against these activities, and has accused Guyana of violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

 

The tension between the two countries has escalated in the context of the political and economic crisis in Venezuela, which has led to the deterioration of its relations with its neighbors and the international community. Venezuela has been accused of human rights violations, corruption, authoritarianism, and interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Venezuela has also faced several challenges to its legitimacy, such as the Venezuelan presidential crisis, which resulted in the emergence of two rival governments: one led by Nicolás Maduro, who claims to be the constitutional president, and another led by Juan Guaidó, who claims to be the interim president recognized by more than 50 countries, including Brazil. 

 

Brazil, as the largest and most influential country in South America, has played an important role in the regional affairs and the resolution of conflicts. Brazil has historically maintained cordial and cooperative relations with both Guyana and Venezuela, and has supported the peaceful and diplomatic settlement of the dispute over the Guayana Esequiba. However, Brazil's position has changed significantly under the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, who has adopted a more confrontational and ideological stance against Venezuela and its allies. 

 

Bolsonaro has aligned himself with the US and other countries that recognize Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela, and has denounced Maduro as a dictator and a threat to the regional stability and democracy. Bolsonaro has also expressed his support for Guyana's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and has criticized Venezuela's claims and actions as aggressive and illegitimate. 

 

According to some reports, the Brazilian armed forces have been placed into a heightened state of readiness due to a significant movement of military equipment and personnel in eastern Venezuela on the border of Guyana, which has recently been detected by satellite imagery and intelligence sources. Some officials believe that Venezuela may soon invade the small South American country in order to annex the Guayana Esequiba region, which accounts for over 60% of the nation's territory and has been claimed by the Venezuelan government. 

 

If this scenario materializes, it could trigger a major regional conflict that would involve not only Guyana and Venezuela, but also Brazil and other neighboring countries, as well as the US and other international actors.

 

The Brazilian angle is interesting.  Brazil doesn't have a mutual-defense agreement with Guyana, but it does have a close relationship.  The only road through the Amazon crosses the Brazilian border into Guyana in the Esequiba region.  And that has been a major Brazilian infrastructure project over the past decade as Brazil has sought an overland route to Caribbean ports.

One would expect that Lula would be somewhat indulgent of the Maduro regime and Venezuela generally.  But that road is of such a national interest to Brazil that Lula may have to take a stand against Venezuela on this one.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

Throw some A-10's and F-35's into Trinidad. 

[Parliament 14239]

And AC 130's.

[atomheartbevo 89625]

So there's videos claiming to be Venezuelan soldiers moving through the jungle to enter Guyana (and some are claiming they are crossing Brazilian territory).  They are fake - old Colombian vs FARC videos.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

Fun times ahead. 

BRASILIA, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Brazil "has intensified defensive actions" along its northern border as it monitors a territorial dispute between its neighbors, Guyana and Venezuela, the country's defense ministry said on Wednesday.

"The Ministry of Defense has been monitoring the situation. Defensive actions have been intensified in the northern border region of the country, promoting a greater military presence," it said in a statement.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/

[elfenix 34223]

just in case you'd like to fly to an active war zone next year:

Quote

United Airlines announced it will begin flying from its hub in Houston, Texas to Georgetown, Guyana next year.

https://caribbean.loopnews.com/content/united-airlines-plans-fly-guyana-2024

[NAVY 6740]

If ever there was a time for boaty mcBoatFace II 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/americas/venezuela-essequibo-referendum-guyana-intl/index.html

[atomheartbevo 89625]

2 hours ago, NAVY said:

If ever there was a time for boaty mcBoatFace II 

Brazil, US, and UK are telling him to knock it off, and he's like "hold my beer".

I wonder what he does if Venezuelans vote not to annex Guyana, since his generals are already saying they'll take the region by force.

[Bateshorn 9927]

Just park a carrier group off the Venezuela Coast already and stop this nonsense.  State something to the effect of: nobody is invading anyone.  This isn’t rocket science. 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

Venezuela categorically rejects the statement issued by the General Secretariat of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), on the ruling of the International Court of Justice in relation to the unusual provisional measures requested by the Government of Guyana, against the democratic and sovereign consultative referendum that will take place in our country on December 3, 2023.

 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

Holy shit, right out of Putin’s playbook  the questions Venezuelans are voting on.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67583582

The first two basically ask whether Venezuelans support the country's claim over the Essequibo region based on the Venezuelan arguments - the alleged invalidity of the 1899 arbitral award and the validity of the 1966 Geneva Agreement. 

The third question asks voters if they agree with the Maduro government's refusal to accept that the ICJ has jurisdiction in the case. 

This is a controversial question, since many Venezuelan opposition leaders and observers say snubbing the ICJ undermines Venezuela's position.

Question four asks if Venezuelans "agree to oppose by all means in accordance with the law" Guyana's "unilateral" use of the sea waters off Essequibo - a reference to Guyana issuing oil licencing for this offshore area.

Critics have questioned the use of "by all means" in this question, wondering if this could include military force.

The fifth question asks for approval for "the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state" and its "incorporation into the map of Venezuelan territory", language particularly objected to by Guyana which says this amounts to the effective "annexation" of territory it currently administers.

[Bevo 13563]

On 12/2/2023 at 2:12 PM, Bateshorn said:

Just park a carrier group off the Venezuela Coast already and stop this nonsense.  State something to the effect of: nobody is invading anyone.  This isn’t rocket science. 

We seem very reactionary these days. We need to be proactive.

[blacklab 11926]

Holy shit.

Hadn't read this thread in a while. Turns out the guy from 3 years ago, Luke Denman's parents live across the street from me. I knew their kid was in prison in Venezuela but had no idea what for. They were always vague about why he was there. Bizarre to read about it here.

[tx 3 putt 76868]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Holy shit, right out of Putin’s playbook  the questions Venezuelans are voting on.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67583582

The first two basically ask whether Venezuelans support the country's claim over the Essequibo region based on the Venezuelan arguments - the alleged invalidity of the 1899 arbitral award and the validity of the 1966 Geneva Agreement. 

The third question asks voters if they agree with the Maduro government's refusal to accept that the ICJ has jurisdiction in the case. 

This is a controversial question, since many Venezuelan opposition leaders and observers say snubbing the ICJ undermines Venezuela's position.

Question four asks if Venezuelans "agree to oppose by all means in accordance with the law" Guyana's "unilateral" use of the sea waters off Essequibo - a reference to Guyana issuing oil licencing for this offshore area.

Critics have questioned the use of "by all means" in this question, wondering if this could include military force.

The fifth question asks for approval for "the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state" and its "incorporation into the map of Venezuelan territory", language particularly objected to by Guyana which says this amounts to the effective "annexation" of territory it currently administers.

they knew the election results before the questions were written up 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

Venezuelan leaders today

The day has arrived and hope, dignity and unity are triumphing in Venezuela. Let's continue winning in this fight to defend what is ours!

The CNE and the People score 100 points with this electoral process, quick, easy and of popular mobilization to say once again, 5 times: Yes to Venezuela, Yes to the Homeland, Yes to Sovereignty, Yes to Essequibo, Yes to the Eighth Star. Don't be left out, go and vote.

 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

Let's go people of Venezuela! With our vote we will change the fate of a 124-year-old controversy in a few hours. #ElEsequiboEsVenezuela

 

 

Spokespersons of Popular Power, Let's go house to house throughout the community. Let's guarantee that all Venezuelans express their love for Venezuela with their vote. Communes and communal councils exist in the territory. Our Guayana Esequiba is Venezuelan territory, it should be communal territory.
 

 

——

[atomheartbevo 89625]

 

 

[bernorange 8359]

Venezuela gonna fuck around, go hot and find out.

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

do we really have to fucking go back to being the fucking worlds entire fucking policeman again?

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

59 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

do we really have to fucking go back to being the fucking worlds entire fucking policeman again?

Something something asshole neighbors trying to fuck things up and spilling over into your backyard something something.

Brazil moving troops to the border is actually nice, and I'm sure they wouldn't be doing it because they are joining OPEC+ in January and don't want Venezuela trying to fuck with oil prices, etc. (plus they want that road through Guyana).

[atomheartbevo 89625]

Nice little map

Elvis Amoroso, president of the CNE, in a first bulletin, assured that the electoral participation this Sunday #3Dic in the consultative referendum reached the figure of more than 10,554,320 million votes so far.

ok.gif

[atomheartbevo 89625]

28 million people in Venezuela.  Over 10 million voted.

https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-90a4f0f962a83620903987a68a7d39b0

Quote

 Venezuelans on Sunday approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighboring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced. Few voters could be seen at voting centers throughout the voting period, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million voters cast ballots.

Venezuela has long argued the territory was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.

Quote

“It has been a total success for our country, for our democracy,” Maduro told supporters gathered in Caracas, the capital, after results were announced before highlighting the “very important level of participation of the people” in the referendum.

Throughout Sunday, long lines typical of electoral events did not form outside voting centers in Caracas. Still, before the 12-hour voting session was scheduled to end, the country’s top electoral authority, Elvis Amoroso, announced polls would remain open for two additional hours because of what he described as “massive participation.”

Quote

Participation of over 10.5 million voters means that more people voted in the referendum than they did for Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, when he was re-elected in the 2012 presidential contest.

Quote

But activity at voting centers Sunday in Caracas paled in comparison with the hours-long lines that formed outside polls during the presidential primary held by a faction of the opposition in October without assistance from the National Electoral Council.

More than 2.4 million people participated in the primary, a number that government officials declared mathematically impossible given the number of available voting centers and the time it takes a person to cast a paper ballot. State media attributed the lack of wait times Sunday to the fast speed at which people were casting their electronic ballots. Maduro told supporters celebrating the results that it only took him 15 seconds to vote early Sunday.

Quote

The International Court of Justice on Friday ordered Venezuela not to take any action that would alter Guyana’s control over Essequibo, but the judges did not specifically ban officials from carrying out Sunday’s five-question referendum. Guyana had asked the court to order Venezuela to halt parts of the vote.

Although the practical and legal implications of the referendum remain unclear, in comments explaining Friday’s verdict, international court president Joan E. Donoghue said statements from Venezuela’s government suggest it “is taking steps with a view toward acquiring control over and administering the territory in dispute.” “Furthermore, Venezuelan military officials announced that Venezuela is taking concrete measures to build an airstrip to serve as a ‘logistical support point for the integral development of the Essequibo,’” she said.

 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

Over 10 million votes out of 28 million people.

95% of all questions passed.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelans-vote-referendum-disputed-territory-with-guyana-2023-12-03/

Quote

The court this week barred Venezuela from taking any action which would change the status quo in the area, which is the subject of an active case before the ICJ, but President Nicolas Maduro's government went ahead with a five-question "consultative" referendum.

All questions passed with more than 95% approval, according to electoral authority president Elvis Amoroso, who said at least 10.5 million votes were cast for 'yes' but did not confirm the number of voters.

This fly-fishing outfight is advertising on twitter, and their lodge is in the region that Venezuela wants to take over.  Probably not going to be a lot of takers

 

[atomheartbevo 89625]

Oh fuck, James Cameron was making a future documentary when he made Avatar

[tx 3 putt 76868]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh fuck, James Cameron was making a future documentary when he made Avatar

more like some mean ‘landing strips’

 

 

trust me 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

Self deleted.  Political statement on what the US would or wouldn’t do.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Nice Guy Eddie

[atomheartbevo 89625]

He wants to fight for peace, by annexing 75% of Guyana, and this is about going after ExxonMobil and preventing the US from setting up military bases in the area

 

No idea if this is current, but either way, these guys would go down fast to US or British troops

 

[Brisketexan 105058]

6 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

 

To give context to how much of Guyana it is that Venezuela is going for.

Yeah, it's functionally all of it.  

I love how humanity is just going full retrograde in this new century.  Populist despots, wars of ethnic cleansing, wars of conquest.  We're gonna party like it's 1914-1945!

[MissingInAction 25006]

A bunch of half assed mountain boys if you ask me. 

[Trey3216 15343]

33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, it's functionally all of it.  

I love how humanity is just going full retrograde in this new century.  Populist despots, wars of ethnic cleansing, wars of conquest.  We're gonna party like it's 1914-1945!

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

95% in favor of taking guyana?  those voters really drank the koolaid 

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

95% in favor of taking guyana?  those voters really drank the koolaid 

ehhh....

 

the boxes where folks who showed up and put a slip of paper in the box, didnt make it back to the counting offices, where the "sealed" election ballots had already been collected

[Trey3216 15343]

9 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

ehhh....

 

the boxes where folks who showed up and put a slip of paper in the box, didnt make it back to the counting offices, where the "sealed" election ballots had already been collected

Those "scantrons" rolled off the press with pre-filled boxes  

[SimonBolivar 10957]

10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Those "scantrons" rolled off the press with pre-filled boxes  

Counting is hard work, it's easier just to report a number and go home.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

In a perfect world, the UK should be enforcing Guyana's borders since they were the ones who supposedly settled the issue with Venezuela prior to British Guyana going independent. Early 60s? But I doubt the UK is in any position to do much of anything that doesn't involved their current territories. 

Where does the other South American powers stand on this issue? Does Brazil have an interest in helping their neighbors maintain their borders?

[BamaATL 16593]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, it's functionally all of it.  

I love how humanity is just going full retrograde in this new century.  Populist despots, wars of ethnic cleansing, wars of conquest.  We're gonna party like it's 1914-1945!

Someone is begging to be made an example of.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Someone is begging to be made an example of.  

you avatar should tell you its easier said than done.

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

48 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In a perfect world, the UK should be enforcing Guyana's borders since they were the ones who supposedly settled the issue with Venezuela prior to British Guyana going independent. Early 60s? But I doubt the UK is in any position to do much of anything that doesn't involved their current territories. 

Where does the other South American powers stand on this issue? Does Brazil have an interest in helping their neighbors maintain their borders?

Brazil has an interest in keeping the road through Guyana open so Brazil has access to Caribbean ports, which is probably good enough. 

[BamaATL 16593]

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

you avatar should tell you its easier said than done.

Fair point, but this guy doesn't have nuclear or chemical weapons to hid behind.  

In my opinion, China and to a lesser extent (because they are just pawns of the Chinese) Russia are behind this, and sowing global discord is their game.  Someone is gonna fuck around a find out big time.   The fact that this guy is willing to do this in our back yard is something else.  We need to nip this sort of thing in the bud as quickly as possible, and one of the ways to do it is by quickly sending a message.  

[Ghost of LL 15531]

14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In a perfect world, the UK should be enforcing Guyana's borders since they were the ones who supposedly settled the issue with Venezuela prior to British Guyana going independent. Early 60s? But I doubt the UK is in any position to do much of anything that doesn't involved their current territories. 

Where does the other South American powers stand on this issue? Does Brazil have an interest in helping their neighbors maintain their borders?

The UK does have the ability to project power . . . or at least enough power as would be necessary to fight off Venezuela.  The Royal Navy has two active carriers, each of which has more than enough combat capability to destroy the Venezuelan Air Force is pretty short order.  The challenge, then, is ground support in a jungle environment against a non-mechanized adversary.  And as the USAF demonstrated in Vietnam, that presents some challenges.

That's where the Brazilian ground forces come in.  And yeah--they do have an interest there.  As the Fish points out above, Brazil has a strong interest in keeping their road through Guyana to the Caribbean ports open.  And yeah--it is their road.  It was built with Brazilian money and serves primarily Brazilian interests.  It's the same way it's "our Canal," irrespective of Panamanian sovereignty.  

But beyond that, there's some regional dick swinging that comes into play here.  Brazil sees itself as the regional hegemon.  And if you're the regional hegemon, you don't take too kindly to one of the subordinate powers trying to upset the regional status quo without your pre-approval.  That's just not how this works.  So Brazil has an interest in putting Venezuela back in its place and demonstrating to the rest of CONMEBOL that shit can't go down in South America without Brasilia's say-so.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

I also believe that Guyana is in the British Commonwealth of Nations, or whatever their name is. I'm fairly certain there isn't an automatic mutual defense agreement within the Commonwealth but that doesn't mean that the UK will sit back and watch one of their partners lose 50% of their land and a large chunk of wealth.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

And there is also Colombia. They do not like the government in Venezuela and have a pretty good military that is not that active right now. 

Concerning the Brits. They maintain Jungle training centers in Kenya and in Belize. I bet they could conduct a defensive action pretty damn well. 

Probably the best deterrent would be a massive "training" event in Guyana with the US, UK, Brazil and maybe Canada. A show of force, build a training facility.  

[atomheartbevo 89625]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Where does the other South American powers stand on this issue? Does Brazil have an interest in helping their neighbors maintain their borders?

35 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

  But beyond that, there's some regional dick swinging that comes into play here.  Brazil sees itself as the regional hegemon.  And if you're the regional hegemon, you don't take too kindly to one of the subordinate powers trying to upset the regional status quo without your pre-approval.  That's just not how this works.  So Brazil has an interest in putting Venezuela back in its place and demonstrating to the rest of CONMEBOL that shit can't go down in South America without Brasilia's say-so.

Brazil has started moving forces to their border, and there are rumors that they have been invited to base troops inside of Guyana (population: 800,000).  They have a lot of money and time invested in that road and other infrastructure, and in being able to use the deepwater port in Georgetown, and they've been close to Guyana since the 1960s.  It's entirely feasible the US and UK take care of the air and naval stuff and Brazil puts boots on the ground.