Things not going well in Venezuela

[BamaATL 16593]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Brazil has started moving forces to their border, and there are rumors that they have been invited to base troops inside of Guyana (population: 800,000).  They have a lot of money and time invested in that road and other infrastructure, and in being able to use the deepwater port in Georgetown, and they've been close to Guyana since the 1960s.  It's entirely feasible the US and UK take care of the air and naval stuff and Brazil puts boots on the ground.

I've read that the Royal Navy is a grossly undermanned shit show.  In order to deploy their carriers they have to sacrifice manpower from other surface vessels.  No bueno.  

[Parliament 14239]

All this naval air power talk and no:

Send Pete Mitchell in and it’s game over.

 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

And there is also Colombia. They do not like the government in Venezuela and have a pretty good military that is not that active right now. 

Concerning the Brits. They maintain Jungle training centers in Kenya and in Belize. I bet they could conduct a defensive action pretty damn well. 

Probably the best deterrent would be a massive "training" event in Guyana with the US, UK, Brazil and maybe Canada. A show of force, build a training facility.  

I don't love that, because then the Venezuelans will frame their aggression as being a reaction to Anglo-American imperialism in the form of a base being built on Venezuela's borders.  And while that may be bullshit, it'd gain a lot of traction around Latin America and undermine our ability to build a broader CONMEBOL coalition to counter the Venezuelan aggression.

It'd be far better to let the Brazilians take the lead.  And to the extent Brazil needs support, we can provide that covertly.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

Agree Brazil should take the lead. But we do training events all the time around the globe. 

[Macanudo 12975]

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't love that, because then the Venezuelans will frame their aggression as being a reaction to Anglo-American imperialism in the form of a base being built on Venezuela's borders.  And while that may be bullshit, it'd gain a lot of traction around Latin America and undermine our ability to build a broader CONMEBOL coalition to counter the Venezuelan aggression.

It'd be far better to let the Brazilians take the lead.  And to the extent Brazil needs support, we can provide that covertly.

 Makes me wonder why Guyana hasn't built some strongholds in/around that road and others areas of the contested zone.   

[InkaUtexas 25859]

Shit, Guyana is still using WW2 British weapons. 

[Macanudo 12975]

24 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Shit, Guyana is still using WW2 British weapons. 

So that's who has been hoarding all of the .303 Enfield ammo.

[atomheartbevo 89626]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

 Makes me wonder why Guyana hasn't built some strongholds in/around that road and others areas of the contested zone.   

Because there are more people in Austin than in Guyana.  They just don't have enough people to support anything more than a glorified police force - 4,600 active duty with 3,000 reserve, and a chunk of that is tied up with air and naval stuff (albeit small), and logistics/support. They would be lucky to field even a thousand actual combat troops.  Their heaviest weapons are 6 130mm 1950s-era Soviet artillery pieces, and 25 or so mortars.

Their officers are trained in England at Sandhurst, so they have that going for them, but until they get more oil money in, they won't be able to do anything.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Because there are more people in Austin than in Guyana.  They just don't have enough people to support anything more than a glorified police force - 4,600 active duty with 3,000 reserve, and a chunk of that is tied up with air and naval stuff (albeit small), and logistics/support. They would be lucky to field even a thousand actual combat troops.  Their heaviest weapons are 6 130mm 1950s-era Soviet artillery pieces, and 25 or so mortars.

Their officers are trained in England at Sandhurst, so they have that going for them, but until they get more oil money in, they won't be able to do anything.

Sounds like we might be looking at a buck fifty gas and down a few tomahawks.  

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

56 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Sounds like we might be looking at a buck fifty gas and down a few tomahawks.  

Yea, feels like about 30 minutes of air operations could put this shit to bed. A little Brrrrrt and a few booms and we call it a day. Let the Brazilians clean up the mess. 

[bolverk 29653]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

And there is also Colombia. They do not like the government in Venezuela and have a pretty good military that is not that active right now. 

Late to the conversation but, yeah, I could see it in Colombia's interest to get involved in some way. From my understanding, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Venezuelans have been fleeing the country the last few years. Many have ended up on our southern border, but most stay in Colombia. I'd guess that Colombia would be happy to stem that tide if they had a good excuse to. That'd also mean Venezuela would have two fronts to worry about (east and west), which would obviously not be ideal for them.

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Brazilians aren’t too happy about Venezuela in general (and the immigrants).

Y’all can cut and paste to translate, I’m too lazy to translate it all.

https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2023/12/04/ministerio-da-defesa-desloca-veiculos-blindados-para-a-fronteira-com-a-venezuela.ghtml

Basically what has been said, but it isn’t much. 20 armored vehicles and some men obviously. But BOPE could probably deflect Venezuela on their own.

[atomheartbevo 89626]

49 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Y’all can cut and paste to translate, I’m too lazy to translate it all.

If you're using the right browser and OS, there should be a translation button somewhere near the address field.

Quote

The Ministry of Defense confirmed on Monday (4) that it has moved 20 armored vehicles to strengthen the security of the border with Venezuela.

The Minister of Defense, José Múcio, said that the operation was already planned to combat mining in the region, but that the vehicles will be able to help in the security of the region.

Also according to the minister, the equipment will be in the Barracks of Boa Vista, in Roraima - a squadron that will be transformed into a cavalry regiment, with 130 military personnel.

The area goes through an escalation of tension related to the dispute between Venezuela and Guyana for the territory of Essequibo - a large portion of land, now under Guyanese administration, which houses large oil reserves.

Venezuela considers Essequibo, also known as Guayana Esequiba in Spanish, a "claimed area" and usually displays it scratched on its maps. Meanwhile, Guyana, which controls and manages the area, has six of its 10 administrative regions there.

Countries have been disputing the region since 1841. In 2015, the dispute became more fierce, as the American company ExxonMobil discovered oil fields in the region.

 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Im on tapatalk. I meant not only am I too lazy to translate it myself, I’m too lazy to cut and paste hahaha.

So only 95% on the vote. Kind of shocked it’s so low haha.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

was expecting 114%, but....  

[atomheartbevo 89626]

H I Sutton giving us a breakdown of the Venezuelan Navy, and what they could use to go after boat traffic and ExxonMobil ships/infrastructure

http://www.hisutton.com/Venezuelan_Navy_2023.html

Quote

The Venezuelan Navy has not seem much action. On March 30 2020 a one of their patrol ships, ANBV Naiguata (GCG-23), scored a rare maritime kill. It sunk itself by ramming an ice hardened cruise ship, RCGS Resolute. The incident called into question the training and leadership of the navy. But at the same time it showed an increasingly aggressive stance.

The Guyana Defence Force (GDF) by comparison barely have a navy to speak of. The Coast Guard, their naval element, has a few small patrol boats. Their largest boat, an ex-Royal Nagy minesweeper, is likely unserviceable. Even if it wasn’t, it wouldn’t be a match for the Venezuelan Navy.

 

Quote

Missile Boats Recently Acquired From Iran

In 2023 Venezuela received at least four Peykaap-III class missile boats from Iran. The design was originally North Korean but has been iteratively improved in Iran. They are armed with 2 x Kowsar or Nasr lightweight anti-ship missiles and 2 x lightweight anti-ship torpedoes. These boats represent a significant threat to merchant ships and any Guyanese government vessels.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89626]

Since we all love flight tracking - this thing has been all over Central/South America over the years in support of SOCOM.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/11-3104#2a93dea6

It's last stop today before leaving Brazil for Barbados was Manaus, which is possibly the largest Brazilian hub near Guyana (about 8 or 9 hours to the border).

https://www.afsoc.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/2547314/c-146a-wolfhound/

Mission
The C-146A Wolfhound’s primary mission is to provide U.S. Special Operations Command flexible and responsive operational movement of small teams and cargo in support of Theater Special Operations Commands. Airlift missions are conducted by Air Force Special Operations Command aircrews to prepared and semi-prepared airfields around the world.
 

Edited December 5, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Fudge Nuggets 19188]

19 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

And while that may be bullshit, it'd gain a lot of traction around Latin America and undermine our ability to build a broader CONMEBOL coalition to counter the Venezuelan aggression.

Those other countries can take their traction and shove it when they get run over by Venezuelan aggression.

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

I was just talking with a Venezuelan colleague. The same one that said she was going to vote no. She is very good at her job but total scatter brain. So I told her about Brazil moving armored vehicles and men to the border. She asked why because she thinks Maduro and Lula are best friends. It’s always interesting to me how many Latin Americans can’t see the nuance in the political spectrum of their own region. Anyways, I told her Brazil doesn’t want instability in the region. Then I was kind of surprised, she was like “but Guyana IS part of Venezuela! That is ours.” Thus the scatter brain comment. I don’t really like talking to her for too long so didn’t press it, but it seems she thinks that it is Venezuelan territory, but doesn’t want to go to war for it.

[atomheartbevo 89626]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Those other countries can take their traction and shove it when they get run over by Venezuelan aggression.

Guyana seems to be the only country that Venezuela can run over.  Sure, there's Curacao, Aruba, and Trinidad and Tobago, but those would be pretty risky since they'd require more airlift/sealift than Venezuela has, and there's no territorial claims (not that their claims over Guyana are valid).  And there's a non-zero chance that Colombia, Brazil, and the US and others get directly involved.

One analyst from down there that I read said this could be Maduro talking big ahead of his election, but not doing anything right now, kind of a "you need to re-elect me if you want this oil wealth".  The fact that the referendum was such a sham was another data point - he could have been privately gauging interest, while publicly proclaiming that it was a victory, and he leaves it at that for now.  As they pointed out, we loosened sanctions on Venezuela if he would have elections, but if he tried something and we clamped down hard, it would put him in a huge bind with his people, because Colombia and Brazil would follow suit which means nothing would be getting in or out of Venezuela.  

Basically it mirrors Russia in some ways, but there's no India or China to funnel stuff through.

 

[atomheartbevo 89626]

1 minute ago, Patricio Swayze said:

She asked why because she thinks Maduro and Lula are best friends. It’s always interesting to me how many Latin Americans can’t see the nuance in the political spectrum of their own region.

I'm sure they could be friends, but Venezuela moving in there fucks with Brazil's infrastructure/long-term plans, and with Brazil moving into OPEC+ next month, they don;t want instability in their literal backyard.

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

I'm sure they could be friends, but Venezuela moving in there fucks with Brazil's infrastructure/long-term plans, and with Brazil moving into OPEC+ next month, they don;t want instability in their literal backyard.

Well, what I mean is Lula ≠ Maduro. I understand that people, especially Latin Americans, think anything left of center is basically Cuba/Venezuela, but it is obviously not. How Venezuela operates as a country and government are quite different than Brazil.

[atomheartbevo 89626]

42 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Well, what I mean is Lula ≠ Maduro. I understand that people, especially Latin Americans, think anything left of center is basically Cuba/Venezuela, but it is obviously not. How Venezuela operates as a country and government are quite different than Brazil.

I see what you mean now.  And Maduro is a far different leader - he wants to be a big fish in a small pond.  Lula on the other hand wants a global leadership role.

In terms of the OPEC+ stuff, looks like Brazil wants to be an observer/influencer and not be under any pricing controls:

Quote

"Brazil should join OPEC+, it could be an observer," Lula said on Sunday. "Brazil will never be a full member of OPEC, because we don't want to be. What we want is to influence."

 

[Brisketexan 105060]

Brazil should invade Essequibo itself.  But then again, they could probably only control a narrow strip of it.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

One thing to consider is Guyana is a Commonwealth Member. Would take some balls to invade a member. 

[nineliveslost 2753]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

One thing to consider is Guyana is a Commonwealth Member. Would take some balls to invade a member. 

[Macklemore 2876]

2 hours ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I was just talking with a Venezuelan colleague. The same one that said she was going to vote no. She is very good at her job but total scatter brain. So I told her about Brazil moving armored vehicles and men to the border. She asked why because she thinks Maduro and Lula are best friends. It’s always interesting to me how many Latin Americans can’t see the nuance in the political spectrum of their own region. Anyways, I told her Brazil doesn’t want instability in the region. Then I was kind of surprised, she was like “but Guyana IS part of Venezuela! That is ours.” Thus the scatter brain comment. I don’t really like talking to her for too long so didn’t press it, but it seems she thinks that it is Venezuelan territory, but doesn’t want to go to war for it.

Guayana belongs to Venezuela just as much as Las Malvinas belongs to Argentina — in the figment of each country’s imagination and not backed by history or the desire of the inhabitants. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Macklemore

[InkaUtexas 25859]

Sir, it is the Falklands...... Las Malvinas is where a military dictatorship lost. 

 

[SimonBolivar 10957]

On 12/4/2023 at 2:10 PM, Ghost of LL said:

The UK does have the ability to project power . . . or at least enough power as would be necessary to fight off Venezuela.  The Royal Navy has two active carriers, each of which has more than enough combat capability to destroy the Venezuelan Air Force is pretty short order.  The challenge, then, is ground support in a jungle environment against a non-mechanized adversary.  And as the USAF demonstrated in Vietnam, that presents some challenges.

That's where the Brazilian ground forces come in.  And yeah--they do have an interest there.  As the Fish points out above, Brazil has a strong interest in keeping their road through Guyana to the Caribbean ports open.  And yeah--it is their road.  It was built with Brazilian money and serves primarily Brazilian interests.  It's the same way it's "our Canal," irrespective of Panamanian sovereignty.  

But beyond that, there's some regional dick swinging that comes into play here.  Brazil sees itself as the regional hegemon.  And if you're the regional hegemon, you don't take too kindly to one of the subordinate powers trying to upset the regional status quo without your pre-approval.  That's just not how this works.  So Brazil has an interest in putting Venezuela back in its place and demonstrating to the rest of CONMEBOL that shit can't go down in South America without Brasilia's say-so.

Guyana is CONCACAF so Brazil will probably be cool with it.

[Macklemore 2876]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Sir, it is the Falklands...... Las Malvinas is where a military dictatorship lost. 

 

[Bevo 13564]

20 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

[Ghost of LL 15531]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

One thing to consider is Guyana is a Commonwealth Member. Would take some balls to invade a member. 

That didn't really bother us when we invaded Grenada.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

That didn't really bother us when we invaded Grenada.

Yeah, cuz they were on our side. We are not a member, just a really cool close cousin with a shit ton of money and Disney. 

and we did not invade, we rescued American medical students (who could not make it in the US) and halted the spread of those wretched cubans. It also slowed down the movement of a lot of Cuban military to Angola. 

[elfenix 34223]

7 hours ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I was just talking with a Venezuelan colleague. The same one that said she was going to vote no. She is very good at her job but total scatter brain. So I told her about Brazil moving armored vehicles and men to the border. She asked why because she thinks Maduro and Lula are best friends. It’s always interesting to me how many Latin Americans can’t see the nuance in the political spectrum of their own region. Anyways, I told her Brazil doesn’t want instability in the region. Then I was kind of surprised, she was like “but Guyana IS part of Venezuela! That is ours.” Thus the scatter brain comment. I don’t really like talking to her for too long so didn’t press it, but it seems she thinks that it is Venezuelan territory, but doesn’t want to go to war for it.

she sounds hot

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

she sounds hot

Well, I think I would like to see a younger version Ike 25-ish. She certainly isn’t bad for what I am guessing is 60.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

One thing to consider is Guyana is a Commonwealth Member. Would take some balls to invade a member. 

You aren't "invading", you're engaged in a "security operation for the protection of the residents from an impending attack. We were invited in, you see."

It's like you've never done this before.

[BamaATL 16593]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Guyana seems to be the only country that Venezuela can run over.  Sure, there's Curacao, Aruba, and Trinidad and Tobago, but those would be pretty risky since they'd require more airlift/sealift than Venezuela has, and there's no territorial claims (not that their claims over Guyana are valid).  And there's a non-zero chance that Colombia, Brazil, and the US and others get directly involved.

One analyst from down there that I read said this could be Maduro talking big ahead of his election, but not doing anything right now, kind of a "you need to re-elect me if you want this oil wealth".  The fact that the referendum was such a sham was another data point - he could have been privately gauging interest, while publicly proclaiming that it was a victory, and he leaves it at that for now.  As they pointed out, we loosened sanctions on Venezuela if he would have elections, but if he tried something and we clamped down hard, it would put him in a huge bind with his people, because Colombia and Brazil would follow suit which means nothing would be getting in or out of Venezuela.  

Basically it mirrors Russia in some ways, but there's no India or China to funnel stuff through.

 

Well, if he moves on Curacao, I think technically he will trigger an article 5, so that's a bold move.  Same with Aruba.  FAFO.  (He's not doing this).  

[elfenix 34223]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Well, if he moves on Curacao, I think technically he will trigger an article 5, so that's a bold move.  Same with Aruba.  FAFO.  (He's not doing this).  

article 6 says not so fast my friend.

 

 

edit: reading article 6 lead me to read about the tropic of cancer which has this sentence in it:

Quote

This is based on an assumption of a constant equator, but the precise location of the equator is not truly fixed.

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by elfenix

[atomheartbevo 89626]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Well, if he moves on Curacao, I think technically he will trigger an article 5, so that's a bold move.  Same with Aruba.  FAFO.  (He's not doing this).  

I feel bad that I forgot those were Dutch.

So Trinidad and Tobago need to pucker up if any new large oil reserves are found nearby.

 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

This is why I so strongly disagree when people say the US is an empire. We could absolutely go down there and own the place. We could demand $10 BOE royalties, in exchange for protection. But we don't do that. Now, if things keep going this way, then we will need to do exactly that. But for now we are the worst "empire" in the history of empires. 

If we decide to start flexing our muscle for the purpose of enriching our country and furthering our self-interest, we are doing the opposite now, life would be a lot better here in America.

[elfenix 34223]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

I feel bad that I forgot those were Dutch.

So Trinidad and Tobago need to pucker up if any new large oil reserves are found nearby.

 

i totally forgot SMU was moving to the ACC so i know the feels

[atomheartbevo 89626]

6 minutes ago, elfenix said:

i totally forgot SMU was moving to the ACC so i know the feels

Territorial realignment is serious business.  

[BamaATL 16593]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I feel bad that I forgot those were Dutch.

So Trinidad and Tobago need to pucker up if any new large oil reserves are found nearby.

 

I seem to remember one of the two of Trinidad and Tobago being entirely abandoned post a hurricane a few years ago (I think Tobago).  Perhaps it's recovered a bit since then, but yeah.  

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Territorial realignment is serious business.  

The college conference alignments are done in the same manor a bunch of us would wind up playing Diplomacy.  Nothing but backstabbing and subsequent trolling.  A meandering narrative if you will.  

[elfenix 34223]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The college conference alignments are done in the same manor a bunch of us would wind up playing Diplomacy.  Nothing but backstabbing and subsequent trolling.  A meandering narrative if you will.  

no game of diplomacy has ever been completed.

[Parliament 14239]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I feel bad that I forgot those were Dutch.

So Trinidad and Tobago need to pucker up if any new large oil reserves are found nearby.

 

North Dakota was invaded by Okies when they found oil here.  Sucks.

[atomheartbevo 89626]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

North Dakota was invaded by Okies when they found oil here.  Sucks.

 

Well, I was a kid and it was in the 80s, and Texan but when my dad’s company moved some exploration crews up there, there were a bunch of Okies and Louisiana folks with us.  Worst few years of my childhood.  

Edited December 6, 2023 by atomheartbevo

[Fudge Nuggets 19188]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Trinidad and Tobago need to pucker up if any new large oil reserves are found nearby.

Trinidad has a shit ton of oil.

[InkaUtexas 25859]

 

[Parliament 14239]

Guyana has reached out to its allies: USA, Brazil, UK and France.

Well that's all you hadta say...