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Donald Trump 2019

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103,186

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You don’t think Obama could beat Trump in 2020?

Nope.  Not anymore.  The folks who are now Trumpkins thought their time was over back then.  They didn't have the means to unite and boost each other's spirits and enthusiasm.  Now they do.  They are awake, they are motivated, and they vote.  Anger and hate are 10X the motivators than decency and thoughtfulness are.  The majority of voters in the states that matter in this country are motivated by rage, race, and inflicted pain on the other.  Trump wins in 2020.

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GHOSTUSER
GHOSTUSER

I fucking love this President. My 2 faves during my lifetime are Trump and Nixon. They share a lot of similarities and were besieged by the same groups of assholes. No I’m not trolling. Y’all, the lef

Francisco 2.0
Francisco 2.0
Brisketexan
Brisketexan

This.....is magnificent. The "younger generation" is going to have to work double-time to fund YOUR Social Security, which YOUR generation of elected officials raided the fuck out of.  And which,

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Jack Straw

Jack Straw 2,953

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

Yep. Vice sent someone to one of their big conventions and basically they know he’s a fraud but he’s doing what they want so who cares?

found it:

 

They’re mostly all hypocritical frauds, so he is perfect for them.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,246

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You don't understand hate very well.

I don’t think you understand how much Americans love fucking over the man.  Trump was the guy that was supposed to fuck over the man but instead he’s become the man.   Lots of people really want to see him lose in a humiliating fashion.  That hate is so intense it’s probably the main factor keeping him from getting impeached.  

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 20,456

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

Yep. Vice sent someone to one of their big conventions and basically they know he’s a fraud but he’s doing what they want so who cares?

found it:

 

Interesting.  I'd almost be willing to bet that particular minister didn't and won't vote for Trump...but who knows. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 28,636

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Nope.  Not anymore.  The folks who are now Trumpkins thought their time was over back then.  They didn't have the means to unite and boost each other's spirits and enthusiasm.  Now they do.  They are awake, they are motivated, and they vote.  Anger and hate are 10X the motivators than decency and thoughtfulness are.  The majority of voters in the states that matter in this country are motivated by rage, race, and inflicted pain on the other.  Trump wins in 2020.

nah.

things had to fall just perfectly for him to scrape by in 2016.

and that was him being "an outsider" promising to drain the swamp and run the country like a business.  that was him being an unknown and hillary being entitled and shitty and "marinating in dc politics forever".  plus, she was a woman (which, like it or not, some people don't like, including women).  she was extremely unlikable, and still has shitty numbers.

all that said, trump lost the popular vote by 3mm and i think everyone who was ever going to vote for him, did it already.  will they all vote for him again?  no.  a lot of them will, but he definitely lost a ton in the last 2-3 years.  did he gain that many people in the last 2-3 years?  doubtful.  if he did, where did they come from?  i seriously doubt many hillary voters have switched sides. 

maybe he somehow inspires some non-voters to vote, but i don't see how that number is bigger than "name that dem" will have going on the other side.

any poll or predictor that says he'll be re-elected is using outdated and general data points that don't make much sense here. 

i'd love to understand the math behind it, if you have any theory besides "this country is fucked and that's why he'll win again."

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,063

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

Yep. Vice sent someone to one of their big conventions and basically they know he’s a fraud but he’s doing what they want so who cares?

found it:

 

<loosely quoted> "I think the left, and in particular the 'city left' thinks the country is more progressive than it really is".

Well, is it possible that "the right, and in particular the "rural right' thinks the country is more conservative than it really is"?

Yeesh.  Way to tapdance through the whole interview and basically say "I'm not interested in actually making things better".  

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5,820

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

not sure what you're confused about.  trump loves the bible.  it's his favorite book.

 

It's a coaster for his jumbo diet cola.  Otherwise, his favorite verses have to be Genesis 19:30-38 which begins:

30 Lot and his two daughters left Zoar and settled in the mountains, for he was afraid to stay in Zoar. He and his two daughters lived in a cave. 31 One day the older daughter said to the younger, “Our father is old, and there is no man around here to give us children—as is the custom all over the earth. 32 Let’s get our father to drink wine and then sleep with him and preserve our family line through our father.”

33 That night they got their father to drink wine, and the older daughter went in and slept with him. He was not aware of it when she lay down or when she got up.

34 The next day the older daughter said to the younger, “Last night I slept with my father. Let’s get him to drink wine again tonight, and you go in and sleep with him so we can preserve our family line through our father.” 35 So they got their father to drink wine that night also, and the younger daughter went in and slept with him. Again he was not aware of it when she lay down or when she got up.

36 So both of Lot’s daughters became pregnant by their father.

 

Because of course he wants to sleep with Ivanka. 

Edited by Mdhorn
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

He basically pulled a Michael Bolton, "I like all the verses about the same, I guess."  

"I'm the exact same way, I know what you mean!"  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 28,636

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So politics no longer ends at the water's edge which was the Republican mantra Jan 2009 - Jan 2017? 

well duh.  outsiders are bad, unless they're nice to him.

if every immigrant charging the southern border in a caravan was committed to illegally voting for trump next year while tweeting great things about him and telling all their friends, they'd already be here.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103,186

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i'd love to understand the math behind it, if you have any theory besides "this country is fucked and that's why he'll win again."

Well, the last part is the most important, but I get that it's kinda summary-ish.  So, here's some bullet-points:

- turnout rate for screaming Trumpkins will be abnormally high.  Note that I don't say that they're a majority of Americans, but they will be a majority of VOTERS.

- voter suppression efforts by the GOP will continue, and will be successful in some swing states.

- incumbent advantage is a real thing, even in the era of Trump.

He squeaked by with a win in 2016.  He'll repeat that in 2020.  He may even lose the popular vote by 4-5 million instead of 3 million, but as we all know, that doesn't matter.

We are a nation built on a foundation of slavery and cruelty.  Half of us fought a bloody war to KEEP slavery and cruelty.  Even having lost the war, half of us spent the next century fighting to return to those days, via Jim Crow and the like.  And the other half of us weren't particularly swell people, either.  The myth of American exceptionalism and goodness isn't just a myth, it's a 180 degree-from-the-truth lie.  We love having someone with dark skin to hate and to blame for all of our woes.  Always have, always will.  It's embedded in our national DNA.  It doesn't take much -- a TV charlatan will do -- to bring it all right back to the forefront.  And that it's brought back in the name of EXTRA cruelty (sweet libtears, he's hurting the wrong people!) only makes it an extra shitty shit sandwich.

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sachick

sachick 1,189

Posted
Posted
Pick any Dem candidate right now.  Then understand that Fox News will make sure to have 23.9 hours a day of commentary on how that candidate is a socialist marxist communist secret muslim sympathizer race-baiter babykiller gungrabbber who is coming to your house RIGHT NOW with MS-13 to let them rape your wife/daughter/dog.

They will turn out.  Trump will win again.  Because the brutal truth about our country is that we are a bunch of fucking racist morons.  It's who we are.  It's our brand.  Time to accept that.

 

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 20,456

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

well duh.  outsiders are bad, unless they're nice to him.

if every immigrant charging the southern border in a caravan was committed to illegally voting for trump next year while tweeting great things about him and telling all their friends, they'd already be here.

It wouldn't even take that much.  If they start wearing MAGA hats and shirts, he'd have cities built for them. 

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sachick

sachick 1,189

Posted
Posted
You don’t think Obama could beat Trump in 2020?

No way in hell Obama or any black man beats trump in 2020. Too many racists have been empowered by Trump and republicans have been busy with their voter suppression and gerrymandering over the years.
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 28,636

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, the last part is the most important, but I get that it's kinda summary-ish.  So, here's some bullet-points:

- turnout rate for screaming Trumpkins will be abnormally high.  Note that I don't say that they're a majority of Americans, but they will be a majority of VOTERS.

- voter suppression efforts by the GOP will continue, and will be successful in some swing states.

- incumbent advantage is a real thing, even in the era of Trump.

He squeaked by with a win in 2016.  He'll repeat that in 2020.  He may even lose the popular vote by 4-5 million instead of 3 million, but as we all know, that doesn't matter.

We are a nation built on a foundation of slavery and cruelty.  Half of us fought a bloody war to KEEP slavery and cruelty.  Even having lost the war, half of us spent the next century fighting to return to those days, via Jim Crow and the like.  And the other half of us weren't particularly swell people, either.  The myth of American exceptionalism and goodness isn't just a myth, it's a 180 degree-from-the-truth lie.  We love having someone with dark skin to hate and to blame for all of our woes.  Always have, always will.  It's embedded in our national DNA.  It doesn't take much -- a TV charlatan will do -- to bring it all right back to the forefront.  And that it's brought back in the name of EXTRA cruelty (sweet libtears, he's hurting the wrong people!) only makes it an extra shitty shit sandwich.

while i'm not directly disagreeing with what you're saying, i do think there's some adjustment that should be made.

your bullets imply that there will be a significant amount of "screaming trumpkins" voting that didn't vote in 2016.  while i'm sure there will be a non-zero number doing this, i can't imagine it's bigger than the number of "anti-trump" folks coming out of the woodwork.  people can pretend the left was angry in 2016, but that's not true.  the left was arrogant and smug.  now they're pissed.  there will be screamers coming from both sides, count on it.

voter suppression - no doubt.  what can you do.  i still don't think it'll make a difference.

incumbent - i don't know about this.  considering how much we've "learned" about trump as a leader/governing entity in the last few years, i'm not sure this helps him.  him playing the victim with impeachment won't help.  his shitting on his own intelligence communities, law enforcement, military and minorities won't help.  it's been a long 3 years, and there's still 17 months to go.  

 

anyway, here's my "math for dummies" take on it:

to me, there are 4 basic blocs from 2016, and yes, i'm greatly over-generalizing, but i think it's worth noting.

1. voted for trump

2. voted for hillary

3. voted against trump

4. voted against hillary

i don't know how accurate polling is to track these specifically, because people never like to admit they're "voting against" someone.  they always try to seem informed and nice, instead of shitty and vengeful.  also, there will always be people that vote straight ticket, and may not necessarily fall neatly into one of these piles.  let's say those people are a wash right now (even though there are far more registered d vs registered r in registration states.  obviously it's about location of voters - duh).

so let's take a look at these 4 groups and what they might be thinking for 2020.

1. if you voted for trump before, you're likely to again.  i personally think this number is lowered by people who learned more about who he is, or are turned off by his shitshow or constitution stomping, or whatever you wanna call it.  but let's say he gained as much as he lost.  round up and give him the benefit of the doubt that it's ~ the same amount.  (personally, i think anyone who's gonna ever vote for him already has, and his totals will be lower, but that's me)

2. if you voted for hillary, you hate trump.  you're likely to vote for any dem on the ballot just to see him burn.  sure, most of these people are still bummed out, but i would think they'd be plenty motivated to get out the vote to ensure he's out.

3. if you voted against trump and didn't care about hillary, then you probably still don't care about hillary, and probably hate trump more.  i really don't see anything he's done in the last 3 years convincing people that they were wrong in his direction.  maybe i'm naive about it, as i live in a bubble.

4. if you voted against hillary, you no longer have that option.  if you didn't really know or care much about trump, i don't think he's won you over and "justified" your selection.  if you would've voted for bernie (or other dems not named hillary) then you now have that chance.  if you were a big obama guy and disliked hrc, you'll definitely vote for biden.

so again, just overgeneralizing, but i think 3, maybe all 4 of these blocs work against a trump reelection.  i think his arrogant attitude will work against him this time.  and as i've said 100x before, he's about to find out what it's like to be the unlikable option on the ticket.  never underestimate the hate some people had for hillary.  i've seen it first hand and i live in west fucking hollywood.

obviously it's not about popular vote, it's gonna be about 5 states, possibly 3.  so anything can happen.  but unless some really funky shit goes down on the dem side, i think he's gonna get wiped out, and there's at least 4-5 dems who can do it.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 88,753

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59 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We are a nation built on a foundation of slavery and cruelty.  Half of us fought a bloody war to KEEP slavery and cruelty.  Even having lost the war, half of us spent the next century fighting to return to those days, via Jim Crow and the like. 

More than half, and the North didn't even have to resort to large-scale drafts (think in '63 they drafted like 50,000 out of a pool of 750,000 eligible).

Still, it bears repeating: Trump has to defend NC, GA, and and especially FL, and he has to actively retake WI, PA, MI, and AZ in the wake of his trade war (and shitting on McCain in the case of AZ).  Trump also has to shore up some Senate seats here and there as well.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 44,926

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Posted
29 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump also has to shore up some Senate seats here and there as well.

This is actually the biggest issue to me, assuming we vote out the dotard.  Shit won't matter for shit if Rs keep the Senate.  Are they suddenly going to come out from under the spell like Biden apparently thinks?  We will be in total gridlock again, especially if we elect someone who actually wants structural reform (Warren or Buttigieg).  

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

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Posted
1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is actually the biggest issue to me, assuming we vote out the dotard.  Shit won't matter for shit if Rs keep the Senate.  Are they suddenly going to come out from under the spell like Biden apparently thinks?  We will be in total gridlock again, especially if we elect someone who actually wants structural reform (Warren or Buttigieg).  

R senate and R white house means more flunkies in SCOTUS.  R senate and D white house means probably RGB and Breyer immediately retire.  Rs can't keep those seats open for four years.  That's a pretty big deal IMO.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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Posted (edited)

There are definitely more traditional conservatives who abstained last time who would vote for the "right" democrat candidate. I know two of them. One abstained last time and one wrote in GW Bush (lol). One would definitely vote for Biden, one would vote for Pete (and is voting for him in our primary), and I think probably Biden too. They just both hated Hillary too much to vote for her. And if Trump keeps doing stupid shit, I think they'd vote for just about anyone over him (minus at least one candidate). 

I think that there are plenty of those out there. I have a couple of business associates in Ohio who are the same way, though my discussions with them haven't been very in-depth. 

It's the only thing keeping me off of the ledge and believing Trump will win again.

Edited by BradInATX
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Js1

Js1 82,438

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

R senate and R white house means more flunkies in SCOTUS.  R senate and D white house means probably RGB and Breyer immediately retire.  Rs can't keep those seats open for four years.  That's a pretty big deal IMO.

Mitch: LOL hold my beer. 

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5,485

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Posted
7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

R senate and R white house means more flunkies in SCOTUS.  R senate and D white house means probably RGB and Breyer immediately retire.  Rs can't keep those seats open for four years.  That's a pretty big deal IMO.

Why not?  

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Js1

Js1 82,438

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Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

He might try, but then he’d be giving the Dems an easy Senate win in 2022.   

Maybe.

I see 2 states that might flip in 2022 due to retiring incumbents (Wisconsin and North Carolina) but Democrats have to go after incumbent Republicans in the first midterm of a Democrat president.  Boy that always works out well!  Obama's Democrats lost *checks notes* 6 seats in his first midterm in 2010. Bill Clinton's Democrats lost *checks other notes* 8 seats in his first midterm 1994.   On the flip side, Reagan lost none in 82; Bush gained 2 in 2002; Trump gained 2 in 2018. 

Time and time again, American voters are willing to punish Democratic Senators during midterms of a Democratic president's first term. 

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3,861

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Posted
9 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I am one of these.  I wrote in Ben Sasse because he was about the only R that hadn’t bent the knee to Trump in 2016.  I won’t vote for Trump now.  It’s either vote D or nobody.

I would definitely vote for Biden or Klobuchar.  I would pretty likely stay home if it’s Bernie.  The rest are somewhere in between, but as long as they moderate for the general election I’d probably be persuaded even if don’t like them.  Warren and Mayor Pete I don’t agree with at all, but I recognize they at least aren’t empty suits or idiot cranks.  Beto I think is a total joke, but I could probably hold my nose because he’s likely harmless.  Harris is probably just a regular Democrat.  Bernie is the one that I’m pretty confident would be a disaster on top of not agreeing with him.

i say vote no matter what.  one thing i'm sick of is us ceding our political future to the olds.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,063

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Posted
13 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I would definitely vote for Biden or Klobuchar.  I would pretty likely stay home if it’s Bernie.  The rest are somewhere in between, but as long as they moderate for the general election I’d probably be persuaded even if don’t like them.  Warren and Mayor Pete I don’t agree with at all, but I recognize they at least aren’t empty suits or idiot cranks.  Beto I think is a total joke, but I could probably hold my nose because he’s likely harmless.  Harris is probably just a regular Democrat.  Bernie is the one that I’m pretty confident would be a disaster on top of not agreeing with him.

Would Bernie be a bigger disaster than 4 more years of Trump?

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Foosters

Foosters 17,627

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Posted
13 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I don’t know.  It could be. From my point of view, it depends.  Does Trump decide to start a war (obviously World War 3 would be worse than whatever hippie nonsense Bernie conjures)?  I can’t rule that out, at all.

What does the Congress look like?  Bernie with a gridlocked government would be ok.  Bernie signing into law every far left proposal from the Green New Deal would, in my view, be worse than Trump embarrassing us constantly but largely resigning himself to toilet tweet storms and pretending to build a wall instead of actually working at anything.

Both of them are ridiculous old coots who shouldn’t have the job, albeit at least Bernie isn’t a malignant narcissist.

If both options suck, and I know my vote isn’t actually deciding the election, I’d rather not vote for either of them.  I know if everyone did that there would be a collective problem, but I’m not actually influencing anyone else.  

Its your position that Trump's harm is limited to his tweets? 

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