Jump to content

Donald Trump 2019


Francisco 2.0

Recommended Posts

Just now, BrickHorn said:

Shunning Trump voters has done nothing more than solidify his support.  Just look at the impact of Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” comment.  It backfired like a motherfucker.  

There's a big difference between a candidate attacking voters and people not inviting their Trump voting neighbors to the barbecue.   Candidates obviously need to be above the fray.   Not that Hillary would have actually gotten a single one of those votes had she not made that comment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve tried shunning and insulting and berating, and it has done exactly jack shit except anger people and cause them to dig in their heels.  I’ve also done the emotional appeal and converted some folks.  

Society is too polarized for shunning to work.  That only works once a critical mass lines up on one side of the issue.  When people are split 50-50, shunning just causes more entrenchment. 

So, yes.  Shunning has a purpose.  But it’s only useful in Phase II of the battle for hearts and minds.  We’re still in Phase I. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

hey i have an idea.

i'm not going to do anything.

his base isn't big enough to reelect him on their own, and it's getting smaller by the day.

the others can wallow in their shitty decisions and their fox news for the next 8-12 years.

If election victories were based on the number of of people voting for a particular candidate, we wouldn't be in this mess. Just sayin'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But Trump support isn't at 50-50.  He's consistently about 42 - 53, both in approval and against the major Dem candidates, and that's counting states like Mississippi that we should just fucking write off.   And plenty of voters in the approval column can't stand him but would live with Hitler if the economy stays as is.  They'll peel away the second the recession hits, no matter what arguments you make.   There is a already critical mass against Trump.  Now is the time to give the rest of them no quarter, in my opinion. 

Edited by Mojo Hand
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A friend’s dad is a Fox News Trumper and we often bat around trollish statements to trigger him.  My friend tells me his dad would stroke out if we started making statements like:

“Won’t it be fantastic when we have president AOC and open borders?  Think about all the taco trucks.”   

“Have you heard about all the good things MS-13 and Antifa are doing?”  

“The Green New Deal is our only hope to avoid an apocalypse.”

”A trillion dollars in reparations would be a great way to stimulate the economy.”

“Maxine Waters might be the smartest politician in my lifetime.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

But Trump support isn't at 50-50.  He's consistently about 42 - 53, both in approval and against the major Dem candidates, and that's counting states like Mississippi that we should just fucking write off.   And plenty of voters in the approval column can't stand him but would live with Hitler if the economy stays as is.  They'll peel away the second the recession hits, no matter what arguments you make.   There is a already critical mass against Trump.  Now is the time to give the rest of them no quarter, in my opinion. 

The election is next year, do you know something that we don't?  Haven't you heard, we're in the greatest economy in the history of ever.  #tiredofwinning 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t believe there are any more “begrudging Trump supporters” left.

At this point, after all the bullshittery of the last 2 1/2 years, if you still consider giving him your vote, you’re a full fledged supporter.

There’s been too much evil done by him and in his name for any thinking person to handwave for any reason.

“The economy is good so I’m gonna overlook all the evil” is the statement of a person who is deep down okay with that evil but doesn’t have the balls to admit it to themselves.

You can’t shame the shameless.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

The truly entrenched Trumpkins have NO empathy.

And they have boiling antipathy to the illusory liberal who is their Juden. If they think you are liberal, they hate what they have been told your intentions are towards the USA. 

This army of idiots believes they are on a great mission to save the country, save our purity of essence, preserve the purity of our precious bodily fluids! 

This is what the rational conversation looks like except the typical Trumpist is not as formidable as Sterling Hayden.

ffb1222eb1c06b9b00081e75f9072a98.jpg

You're arguing against political religion. You're arguing against absolute certainty. You're arguing with someone who will give saving your soul a shot, but will dismiss you as either a misled fool or dangerous enemy of the state once your soul is not won over.

They can't concede that they're wrong because that pretty much negates everything they have been convinced is dear and good in themselves.

We're Mandrake in this conversation. It won't work. Ripper must either die or go into the bathroom and kill himself. He'll never be persuaded.

He'd rather start a nuclear war than be persuaded. He thinks it's a good thing. He's the supreme Trumpist.

An idiot.

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

But Trump support isn't at 50-50.  He's consistently about 42 - 53, both in approval and against the major Dem candidates, and that's counting states like Mississippi that we should just fucking write off.   And plenty of voters in the approval column can't stand him but would live with Hitler if the economy stays as is.  They'll peel away the second the recession hits, no matter what arguments you make.   There is a already critical mass against Trump.  Now is the time to give the rest of them no quarter, in my opinion. 

also while the right has been in charge, they clearly have no interest in unity, changing people's minds, winning them over with ideas - because of course they don't.  they won, and they're in charge.  and they play dirty, so they take advantage of every law break and bend.

once the dems win the presidency back, and continue to keep the house, people will expect unity.  but i would rather behave like republicans at that point.  if we have the votes, fuck the people who don't agree with us.  shit isn't up to them anymore.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mojo Hand said:

But Trump support isn't at 50-50.  He's consistently about 42 - 53, both in approval and against the major Dem candidates, and that's counting states like Mississippi that we should just fucking write off.   

Orly?

lALPm6oJQIu3w40cVtNz

538 listed Emerson as the second most accurate polling service since Nov 2016.

Emerson’s June poll has Trump at 45-48% in five races.  He’s in margin-of-error country against candidates like Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris.  Many who do not approve of his performance will nevertheless vote for him over a Democrat.  Those voters can be swayed.

Edited by BrickHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

Trump is changing the basis of Independence Day (celebration of freedom) to a Salute to America (auto-pandering). He will salute America because, under his leadership, the US is great again. Everywhere he goes, people walk up to him, even in foreign countries, to tell him how great they think America is because of him.

9QEIIK.gif

He sees this as his Nuremburg Rally. Military strength on display. All hailing the chief. This little soiree is worse than the monkey circus it's being viewed as. This is another lurch toward facism using the old playbook.

 

6 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

9k0kl8wmxnk11.gif

Man, Thursday cannot get here quick enough.

D-ZNU1cWwAIwY5X.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Orly?

lALPm6oJQIu3w40cVtNz

538 listed Emerson as the second most accurate polling service since Nov 2016.  

The issue with Emerson is they push undecideds.  Which is why everything adds up perfectly to 100.

There will be a libertarian, green, some indies, etc.  People are still learning who the fuck Warren, Harris, Beto, etc. are.  Undecideds do not typically break for the party in power, especially an unpopular president. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The issue with Emerson is they push undecideds.  Which is why everything adds up perfectly to 100.

There will be a libertarian, green, some indies, etc.  People are still learning who the fuck Warren, Harris, Beto, etc. are.  Undecideds do not typically break for the party in power, especially an unpopular president. 

Let me ask it this way: do you believe that no one who disapproves of Trump’s job performance will vote for him?  

Edited by BrickHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do I think he's currently getting between 45 and 51% of the vote? 

Fuck no I don't. 45 is likely. 49-51% is highly unlikely. We are talking about a guy with approvals in the 41-43% range and only got 46.1% of the vote in 2016. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The issue with Emerson is they push undecideds.  Which is why everything adds up perfectly to 100.

There will be a libertarian, green, some indies, etc.  People are still learning who the fuck Warren, Harris, Beto, etc. are.  Undecideds do not typically break for the party in power, especially an unpopular president. 

It is a false assumption to assume that undecideds in this election will break like other ones. Never before has the party in power had a major media outlet pushing outright lies 24/7 and demonizing the other side. Never before has the party in power had other countries interfere massively to support them, hacking voter registrations and using a bot army to push their agenda. This election represents an existential crisis for the GOP, Fox and the Russians. All of them will get their comeuppance if Trump loses and the GOP doesn't keep the Senate. Putin will do everything in his power to prevent the Democrats from winning. The Saudis and UAE will be all in as well. Democrats will need a landslide to overcome this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Let me ask it this way: do you believe that no one who disapproves of Trump’s job performance will vote for him?  

gonna take a lot more than that.

ignore theoretical polls.  go find his approval with independents.  that poll you posted is from march, and he's still in a pretend dogfight for his life.  beto got 49% and his name recognition was in the 30's at that point.  that means 15-20% chose a stranger over trump.  

his disapproval has been 55+ for a while.  go research how people running for stuff do when their numbers are split that wide.  go research how previous presidents have polled when the economy is good.  only about half of voters even credit trump with the good economy. 

go look at hillary's disapprovals.   then realize she won't be on the ticket in 16 months.

go look at specific states.  notably, states he'll actually need to win.

he's the only president in the history of polling to not crack 50 in a few different approval polls.  and the economy is built into his 40-41.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Let me ask it this way: do you believe that no one who disapproves of Trump’s job performance will vote for him?  

Let me put it this way, those that disapprove of him but still vote for him are the worst kind of evil. Personally, I think we should strip the right to vote from every single person who still supports the man, at least until they pass a civics test. I absolutely recognize the danger in doing so, but I also think it is necessary. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Let me put it this way, those that disapprove of him but still vote for him are the worst kind of evil. Personally, I think we should strip the right to vote from every single person who still supports the man, at least until they pass a civics test. I absolutely recognize the danger in doing so, but I also think it is necessary. 

So... we should basically become the Blue version of the Red evil we oppose?  Fuck that.  We are better because we are principled.  Because we believe in truths, rights, and mutual respect that transcends superficial partisanship.  If we sacrifice our principles to win, the victory will be a devastating defeat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

So... we should basically become the Blue version of the Red evil we oppose?  Fuck that.  We are better because we are principled.  Because we believe in truths, rights, and mutual respect that transcends superficial partisanship.  If we sacrifice our principles to win, the victory will be a devastating defeat.

I have no qualms with people who voted for him in 2016. But those that still support him now are either irredeemably evil or so ignorant that their ability to participate in civic life should be questioned.  And, it is because I believe in truth, rights, and mutual respect that I believe the civic fitness of those that apparently don't should be tested. You have faith that reason and righteousness will win the day. I'm quite certain that they will not unless we do our part to cut out the cancer that has infected us. 

Also, don't confuse me with team blue. I would also abolish political parties entirely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Orly?
lALPm6oJQIu3w40cVtNz
538 listed Emerson as the second most accurate polling service since Nov 2016.
Emerson’s June poll has Trump at 45-48% in five races.  He’s in margin-of-error country against candidates like Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris.  Many who do not approve of his performance will nevertheless vote for him over a Democrat.  Those voters can be swayed.

No. They can’t. All Fox News has to do is cal the dem candidate a socialist once (and of course, they’ll do it 700 times a day), and all of those people will “reluctantly” vote for Trump.
So... we should basically become the Blue version of the Red evil we oppose?  Fuck that.  We are better because we are principled.  Because we believe in truths, rights, and mutual respect that transcends superficial partisanship.  If we sacrifice our principles to win, the victory will be a devastating defeat.

Now you’re getting it. That’s why there’s no “win” to be found. You want to fight nice, fair, and reasonably? Adorable...and you’ll lose, badly. Want to win? Then you have to play by the new rules of the game...meaning fight dirty. Which means our victory is a defeat.

Heads they win (the country is toast), tails we lose (same).
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t believe there are any more “begrudging Trump supporters” left.

At this point, after all the bullshittery of the last 2 1/2 years, if you still consider giving him your vote, you’re a full fledged supporter.

There’s been too much evil done by him and in his name for any thinking person to handwave for any reason.

“The economy is good so I’m gonna overlook all the evil” is the statement of a person who is deep down okay with that evil but doesn’t have the balls to admit it to themselves.

You can’t shame the shameless.

That is not entirely true. My brother and father are Trumpkins. My mother voted for Trump but has come around a bit. She cannot believe how shitty of a person he is and his communication style makes her cringe. She was disturbed by Brett Kavanaughbeerme.

She offered this on her own without any knowledge of the graft going on. No surprise she never heard of this on OAN or FOX.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Orly?

lALPm6oJQIu3w40cVtNz

538 listed Emerson as the second most accurate polling service since Nov 2016.

Emerson’s June poll has Trump at 45-48% in five races.  He’s in margin-of-error country against candidates like Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris.  Many who do not approve of his performance will nevertheless vote for him over a Democrat.  Those voters can be swayed.

A single poll doesn't tell the whole story.  I don't think Trump has broken 43% approval on 538 since his inauguration:   https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

His biggest lows were when his antics were still shocking.   They've rebounded as they've been normalized.   We need to get back to the place where it isn't treated as normal, and the way to do that isn't by treating the deplorables like they are normal, IMO. 

RCP current averages of the front-runners:

Biden 49, Trump 41

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Sanders 50, Trump 43

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

Yeah, the next tier is only up about 3 points over Trump, but I don't think that's indicative of Trump having greater appeal than his approval rating reflects.  Warren, Kamala, and Pete are taking off right now as the country gets to know them, and that will be reflected in the head-to-heads soon. 

I don't dispute that Trump can win.   I just think the way to beat him is by focusing on the 57% of voters who already don't approve of him.    Energize the left with progressive policies.   Attract independents by being stable and sane, and by actually standing for something concrete and aimed at helping people who are struggling.  Make it a choice between racism and sociopathy and incompetence, on the one hand, and expertise and sanity and kindness, on the other.  That wins more than the 80K votes across the blue wall that made the difference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


That is not entirely true. My brother and father are Trumpkins. My mother voted for Trump but has come around a bit. She cannot believe how shitty of a person he is and his communication style makes her cringe. She was disturbed by Brett Kavanaughbeerme.

She offered this on her own without any knowledge of the graft going on. No surprise she never heard of this on OAN or FOX.

But she’ll still end up voting for him over that damned socialist (name). “Reluctantly,” of course. Guaranteed.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

latest comments just now from the oval.  trump explains that his policy towards trade and towards border security are why hispanics like him so much, and why the recent polling has shown how well he's doing with hispanics.  that they're smart and don't want to lose their jobs, and they like him so much.

out of curiosity, i googled it to check out some polls.  this article is 5 days old.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pence-launching-latinos-for-trump-as-new-polling-shows-most-hispanics-want-a-democrat-to-be-president/2019/06/25/2dbfaf4c-9749-11e9-916d-9c61607d8190_story.html?utm_term=.5b70f359658b

Polling released this week by Telemundo showed Trump facing head winds among Hispanic voters in several states.

In Florida, only 34 percent of Hispanic voters would like to see Trump reelected, while 56 percent would prefer to replace him with a Democrat, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Strategies.

The numbers were even less favorable to Trump elsewhere.

In California, 26 percent of Hispanic voters would like to see Trump reelected, while 66 percent would prefer a Democrat. In Texas, 25 percent would like to see him returned to office, while 69 percent want a Democrat. And in the New York metro area, 19 percent want Trump reelected, while 73 percent prefer a Democrat.

Republicans involved in the “Latinos for Trump” initiative express hope that he can build on his performance among Hispanics in 2016.

Trump won 28 percent of the Latino vote nationally in that election, according to exit polling, while Democrat Hillary Clinton won 66 percent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


But she’ll still end up voting for him over that damned socialist (name). “Reluctantly,” of course. Guaranteed.

Yep, my folks are in the same Fox news bubble of lies.

I was giving them grief a few weeks ago when Trump said he'd take dirt on other candidates from foreign countries.  I said, Trump essentially admitted to treason...their reponse.?  

"Hillary did the same thing with the dossier".

I had to remind them that the "dossier" was started by the Never Trumpets (who seem to have morphed into the Never Not Trumpets) in the GOP.  And that hiring a private company to do opposition research isn't even remotely similar to getting intel from a foreign country.

One is legal, and the other is treason.

No amount of facts will deter them.  

Basically they've chosen  to believe Fox and Trump over me.

There is no going back...no matter who wins the next Presidential election.

Edited by DixonHur
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

latest comments just now from the oval.  trump explains that his policy towards trade and towards border security are why hispanics like him so much, and why the recent polling has shown how well he's doing with hispanics.  that they're smart and don't want to lose their jobs, and they like him so much.

out of curiosity, i googled it to check out some polls.  this article is 5 days old.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pence-launching-latinos-for-trump-as-new-polling-shows-most-hispanics-want-a-democrat-to-be-president/2019/06/25/2dbfaf4c-9749-11e9-916d-9c61607d8190_story.html?utm_term=.5b70f359658b

 

 

He was obviously just referring to Rubio and Cruz. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Yep, my folks are in the same Fox news bubble of lies.

I was giving them grief a few weeks ago when Trump said he'd take dirt on other candidates from foreign countries.  I said, Trump essentially admitted to treason...their reponse.?  

"Hillary did the same thing with the dossier".

I had to remind them that the "dossier" was started by the Never Trumpets (who seem to have morphed into the Never Not Trumpets) in the GOP.  And that hiring a private company to do opposition research isn't even remotely similar to getting intel from a foreign country.

One is legal, and the other is treason.

No amount of facts will deter them.  

Basically they've chosen  to believe Fox and Trump over me.

There is no going back...no matter who wins the next Presidential election.

much like trump has chosen to believe foreign despots over his own intelligence community.

normal behavior.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Yep, my folks are in the same Fox news bubble of lies.

I was giving them grief a few weeks ago when Trump said he'd take dirt on other candidates from foreign countries.  I said, Trump essentially admitted to treason...their reponse.?  

"Hillary did the same thing with the dossier".

I had to remind them that the "dossier" was started by the Never Trumpets (who seem to have morphed into the Never Not Trumpets) in the GOP.  And that hiring a private company to do opposition research isn't even remotely similar to getting intel from a foreign country.

One is legal, and the other is treason.

No amount of facts will deter them.  

Basically they've chosen  to believe Fox and Trump over me.

There is no going back...no matter who wins the next Presidential election.

So mom and dad, two wrongs make a right? Is that what Fox News has taught you? That’s a little different than what I heard as a kid. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

My mom voted for Trump because he wasn't Hillary.

She would vote for Satan himself before voting for Donald Trump again.

This is where I am.  Both parents voted for Trump in 2016.  One now promises to vote against him this time and the other promises not to vote for him this time.  That’s a 3-vote swing against Trump. 

Guess how I convinced them (because I DID convince them)?  It wasn’t with facts and figures. And it wasn’t by insulting them and their decisions.  It was by pinging them with occasional news stories about Trump and/or alt right attacks on liberals or minorities, gently reminding them that their son is a liberal and their grandchildren are minorities, and asking “Is this the world you want for your grandchildren?”  

That shit worked.  Y’all can tell me it’s hopeless and a waste of time, but I know otherwise.  And I suspect your fatalism is based on failures to persuade with logic, facts, and condescension.  Because every time I say “use emotion, not facts,” one of you responds “It won’t work because these dumb Trump motherfuckers don’t accept FACTS!!!”   

Edited by BrickHorn
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

This is where I am.  Both parents voted for Trump in 2016.  One now promises to vote against him this time and the other promises not to vote for him this time.  That’s a 3-vote swing against Trump. 

Guess how I convinced them (because I DID convince them)?  It wasn’t with facts and figures. And it wasn’t by insulting them and their decisions.  It was by pinging them with occasional news stories about Trump and/or alt right attacks on liberals or minorities, gently reminding them that their son is a liberal and their grandchildren are minorities, and asking “Is this the world you want for your grandchildren?”  

That shit worked.  Y’all can tell me it’s hopeless and a waste of time, but I know otherwise.  And I suspect your fatalism is based on failures to persuade with logic, facts, and condescension.  

Right, they are convinced because they are reasonable people that were swindled by him the first time. Unfortunately, the people that still support him aren't that. They are something else entirely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Right, they are convinced because they are reasonable people that were swindled by him the first time. Unfortunately, the people that still support him aren't that. They are something else entirely. 

I disagree.  There are a lot of people like my folks who just haven’t been prodded to pay attention and to imagine a loved one suffering an alt right future.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Right, they are convinced because they are reasonable people that were swindled by him the first time. Unfortunately, the people that still support him aren't that. They are something else entirely. 

That describes my in-laws too.  Our disgust and disapproval for their votes was palpable and we wouldn't engage their bullshit for even a moment.   Now they are ashamed and tell us they they think he should be impeached.  It's clear that they were affected by our loss of respect for them.  So, anecdotes.

But the central thing is, anyone still on board is on board after family separations and the Mueller report and his insane daily ramblings.   Maybe what we did swayed our parents, maybe they would have left Trump anyway because he's horrible and they're not bad people deep down.  Who knows.  But I don't buy that anyone left at this point is reachable on any basis other than their own self-interest, if even that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

As absurd as it is, the danger to him is an opponent that is more popular than Hillary, not his own fuckery.

not sure why it's absurd.  i've been saying this exact thing for months.

he's about to find out what it's like to be the unlikable name on a ballot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

But I don't buy that anyone left at this point is reachable on any basis other than their own self-interest, if even that. 

Do you believe 42% of Americans are sociopaths entirely devoid of empathy?  Because, for those that aren’t sociopaths, “self interest” includes the desire to not see loved ones harmed. And it’s precisely that form of self interest that I suggest can be leveraged to stem the march towards fascism.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...