Donald Trump 2019

[lemonlime 5503]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And the hard core trumpkins are the gun hoarders, so what’s the move if he does start rounding citizens or legal immigrants up?

i won’t entertain the idea of him trying to go around the 22nd amendment, because that means he’s been re-elected. But what do you do if he refuses to give up the office peacefully whenever that time comes?  Declare him incompetent?  I’d prefer my kids not be a part of, or lose a parent in, a civil war. 

He's not just going to start rounding citizens or legal immigrants up.  It will be a slow roll to that, with incremental steps. (same with staying in office---he won't just declare he can tomorrow, he'll declare the results of the election invalid, invite the Russians to hack voting systems, accuse millions of voting illegally, etc. and it will be a long, gradual chipping away of free and fair elections.  A chipping away that has already removed a good chunk of voting rights).    Could be starting with the ICE raids, in which some brown citizens have been arrested and had to prove they're citizens--an increase of that.  "Fake news" to going after reporters.  Criticizing Kaepernick to unconstitutional and pointless laws about flag burning to going after people of color who do whatever the next imagined disrespect to the flag is.  I'm not sure of the exact steps he'll take.  But he's riling his supporters to demonizing everyone else in the country.  That hate's going somewhere.  

[4th&Five 41589]

 

[henrygandorf 29194]

3 minutes ago, swraith said:

I don't think this is Fake News.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/aided-by-a-strong-economy-trump-approval-rises-but-a-majority-also-see-him-as-unpresidential/2019/07/04/c9c42c54-9d9f-11e9-b27f-ed2942f73d70_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5c789188ae5e

 

Its a single poll...its not the 538 average.  I don't expect his approval numbers to start running higher....but they are definitely not falling either...regardless of how unpresidential he is.  

 

they don't rise or fall.  they don't move.

people have their minds made up.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, swraith said:

He has been upside down since his inauguration.  No disputing that.  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Should we then think that he can get reelected with these same approval #s?  I hope he can't.  But if he won 2016 with low approval numbers...his reelection seems very much possible.  

You have to look at his disapproval numbers closely to understand how bad it looks for him. 

Not just “disapprove” as often framed by the media, but “STRONGLY DISAPPROVE”.

 

In every poll I’ve seen, the ”strongly disapprove” category is #1 with a consistent range of 41-47%.

I have never seen a president so hated by such a large segment of the population.  These folks are ready to come off the sidelines just to vote AGAINST TRUMP.   I speculate this has something to do with why Pelosi is sleep walking on impeachment.  

[Brisketexan 105322]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You have to look at his disapproval numbers closely to understand how bad it looks for him. 

Not just “disapprove” as often framed by the media, but “STRONGLY DISAPPROVE”.

 

In every poll I’ve seen, the ”strongly disapprove” category is #1 with a consistent range of 41-47%.

I have never seen a president so hated by such a large segment of the population.  These folks are ready to come off the sidelines just to vote AGAINST TRUMP.   I speculate this has something to do with why Pelosi is sleep walking on impeachment.  

The only flaw in that plan is that it discounts that anger and hate on the MAGA side are STRONGER motivators.  EVERY MAGidiot will show up and vote.

I don't give a flying fuck how you FEEL.  All that matters is how -- and if -- you vote.  And on that basis, the MAGidiots will win, again.  Because the anger and hate of stupid people is the strongest force in the universe.

[swraith 347]

You have to look at his disapproval numbers closely to understand how bad it looks for him. 
Not just “disapprove” as often framed by the media, but “STRONGLY DISAPPROVE”.
 
In every poll I’ve seen, the ”strongly disapprove” category is #1 with a consistent range of 41-47%.
I have never seen a president so hated by such a large segment of the population.  These folks are ready to come off the sidelines just to vote AGAINST TRUMP.   I speculate this has something to do with why Pelosi is sleep walking on impeachment.  

That is a very passive strategy. Maybe it works. But it isn’t a lasting strategy. There is no governing mandate from such a strategy. Democrats will find themselves completely lost if they eek out a 2020 victory with no clear direction of “not Trump”.

Is there any research that shows strong disapproval ratings translate into higher voter turnout ?

[Mole 4333]

5 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Who gets to determine who is an authentic christian versus a phony christian?  

 

5 hours ago, yoladu said:

the authentic Christians, of course.

Matthew 7

15 “Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves. 16 By their fruit you will recognize them. Do people pick grapes from thornbushes, or figs from thistles? 17 Likewise, every good tree bears good fruit, but a bad tree bears bad fruit. 18 A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, and a bad tree cannot bear good fruit. 19 Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. 20 Thus, by their fruit you will recognize them.

True and False Disciples

21 “Not everyone who says to me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only the one who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. 22 Many will say to me on that day, ‘Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name and in your name drive out demons and in your name perform many miracles?’23 Then I will tell them plainly, ‘I never knew you. Away from me, you evildoers!’

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

3 minutes ago, swraith said:

Is there any research that shows strong disapproval ratings translate into higher voter turnout ?

The 2016 election 

[Mojo Hand 4580]

I think there is a significant chunk of people who don't admit their support for him in approval numbers, but will nonetheless pull the lever for him.   Look at all the Trump supporters here who rationalize their support as "I don't approve of him, but he's better than Hillary," or "I think he's terrible, but he appoints pro-life judges and that's enough to vote for him over any Dem." 

[Fozzz 152]

 

Omar > Tlaib > Pressley > AOC 

[hobbes2702 13071]

1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

 

Omar > Tlaib > Pressley > AOC 

Wait what part of the tweet is he claiming isn’t true? Lol

[Fozzz 152]

What I don't get is what part of that spiel does Ryan disagree with?  Does he think Somalia is not a shithole? 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The only flaw in that plan is that it discounts that anger and hate on the MAGA side are STRONGER motivators.  EVERY MAGidiot will show up and vote.

I don't give a flying fuck how you FEEL.  All that matters is how -- and if -- you vote.  And on that basis, the MAGidiots will win, again.  Because the anger and hate of stupid people is the strongest force in the universe.

The difference is the MAGA anger has to be focused towards the democrat candidate.  Trump is going to have a challenge manufacturing Hillary level hatred against any of the Democratic candidates and he knows it.  

That’s why he’s been trying to get a jump on Biden so early.  It took a 10+ year all out assault campaign against Hillary for her to be defeated in 2016 and she wasn’t a great candidate.  

But I agree, we’re in an arms race of anger and hate for 2020. 

[retread 2951]

Regardless of who the D nominee is, Cheeto will get a ton of mileage out of using Socialism/Communism. Those words alone will buy him some undecideds.

[Brisketexan 105322]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The difference is the MAGA anger has to be focused towards the democrat candidate.  Trump is going to have a challenge manufacturing Hillary level hatred against any of the Democratic candidates and he knows it.  

That’s why he’s been trying to get a jump on Biden so early.  It took a 10+ year all out assault campaign against Hillary for her to be defeated in 2016 and she wasn’t a great candidate.  

But I agree, we’re in an arms race of anger and hate for 2020. 

"[Candidate] is an America-hating socialist! [he/she] wants to take away all your guns and all your rights.  [he/she] wants to ban Christianity, and burn all Bibles!  [He/she] supports terrorists, wants to kill Americans, and wants MS-13 to come into your house and rape and murder you!"  Etc.

Note that it doesn't matter who the candidate is, or what they actually believe/do.  Facts. Don't.  Matter.  The Trumpkin base will be motivated to vote against the evil Satan the Dems nominate, whoever that evil Satan may be.  It's like you've never even SEEN Fox News.

[henrygandorf 29194]

he doesn't have much in terms of accomplishments (sp?), so he will have to go hard on the hate.

i was sorta joking in an earlier posting, but that's trump's blueprint - figure out who the dem nominee will be, then spend 8 months getting their disapproval number into the 50's.  lies, fear, racism, distortion, accusation will all be on the menu.  along with a huge dose of the word "socialism", regardless of who it is.

you think his tweets are bad now, wait til super tuesday.

[henrygandorf 29194]

what brisket said.

[Continental Op 3934]

39 minutes ago, retread said:

The side of Cesar Altieri Sayoc's van. Sent pipe bombs to two former presidents. That seems like ten years ago.

Top Youth Soccer Recruits For Trump gets me every time I see a pic of that van. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

15 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I think there is a significant chunk of people who don't admit their support for him in approval numbers, but will nonetheless pull the lever for him.   Look at all the Trump supporters here who rationalize their support as "I don't approve of him, but he's better than Hillary," or "I think he's terrible, but he appoints pro-life judges and that's enough to vote for him over any Dem." 

Another thing people haven’t really imagined yet is how awful Trump’s record is as president.  His personal lawyer and campaign manager are currently in federal prison serving hard time for crimes Trump was involved in.

Roger Stone’s trial is around the corner at the end of the year.  Not to mention all the other awful shit Trump has done in broad daylight.  

The democrats can prosecute a very public and credible criminal case against Trump with an impeachment proceeding at any time.  These TV ads write themselves.  Of course the cult will never turn but there is a malleable section the democrats could suppress that would otherwise vote for Trump. 

Edited July 15, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[retread 2951]

The RushFox propaganda campaign of the last 3 decades did spend a lot of time on the Clintons, but the devil was the Libruls.

Every one of these little grenades lets DOTUS test the waters. Declare national emergency over nothing? ✓  Obstruct justice with no consequences? ✓  Lock her up chants? ✓   Immigrants are violent criminals who will destroy our way of life? ✓  Potential for war with Iran?  ✓  Use inflammatory rhetoric to call sitting Congress member America haters and Alcaida supporters?  ✓   Send the AG out repeatedly to lie for you? ✓   Utterly and completely defy Congress' efforts at oversight?  ✓   

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"[Candidate] is an America-hating socialist! [he/she] wants to take away all your guns and all your rights.  [he/she] wants to ban Christianity, and burn all Bibles!  [He/she] supports terrorists, wants to kill Americans, and wants MS-13 to come into your house and rape and murder you!"  Etc.

Note that it doesn't matter who the candidate is, or what they actually believe/do.  Facts. Don't.  Matter.  The Trumpkin base will be motivated to vote against the evil Satan the Dems nominate, whoever that evil Satan may be.  It's like you've never even SEEN Fox News.

Yeah, but they tried all this shit for the midterms and it didn’t really work so well.  The Republican campaign strategy is basically, “Yes, we really think you are THAT stupid.”  Trump has said it himself, “you can only keep the con going for so long before people catch on.”

[Brisketexan 105322]

2 minutes ago, retread said:

The RushFox propaganda campaign of the last 3 decades did spend a lot of time on the Clintons, but the devil was the Libruls.

Every one of these little grenades lets DOTUS test the waters. Declare national emergency over nothing? ✓  Obstruct justice with no consequences? ✓  Lock her up chants? ✓   Immigrants are violent criminals who will destroy our way of life? ✓  Potential for war with Iran?  ✓  Use inflammatory rhetoric to call sitting Congress member America haters and Alcaida supporters?  ✓   Send the AG out repeatedly to lie for you? ✓   Utterly and completely defy Congress' efforts at oversight?  ✓   

And the only question left is "will there be any consequences for these steps?"  When he is re-elected, the answer will be "no, there are no consequences.  Do whatever you want."  And that, folks, is how 244 years as a semi-functioning Republic ends, effectively overnight.

[Brisketexan 105322]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yeah, but they tried all this shit for the midterms and it didn’t really work so well.  The Republican campaign strategy is basically, “Yes, we really think you are THAT stupid.”  Trump has said it himself, “you can only keep the con going for so long before people catch on.”

Counterpoint -- however stupid you think the American people are, you're wrong.  They're stupider than that.

[Dbeasy 15091]

Just a reminder that if you read Woodward’s book about Trump you know that he never, ever under any circumstance apologizes for anything. Anything. Don’t waste your time waiting for any apology. It will never happen on any topic.

[henrygandorf 29194]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yeah, but they tried all this shit for the midterms and it didn’t really work so well.  The Republican campaign strategy is basically, “Yes, we really think you are THAT stupid.”  Trump has said it himself, “you can only keep the con going for so long before people catch on.”

this is a guy leading a "lock-her-up" chant at his re-election rally a few weeks ago, before spending 10 minutes talking about hillary.

you think he's got some double-secret new plan for 2020?  lulz.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yeah, but they tried all this shit for the midterms and it didn’t really work so well.  The Republican campaign strategy is basically, “Yes, we really think you are THAT stupid.”  Trump has said it himself, “you can only keep the con going for so long before people catch on.”

 I wonder if the strategy works better in a presidential year though. Fox News and Trump can’t repeat the message of “Ohio district 11 random Democrat candidate is a socialist” 100,000 times.  But they can do that for the presidential candidate. 

[4th&Five 41589]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

28 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I think there is a significant chunk of people who don't admit their support for him in approval numbers, but will nonetheless pull the lever for him.   Look at all the Trump supporters here who rationalize their support as "I don't approve of him, but he's better than Hillary," or "I think he's terrible, but he appoints pro-life judges and that's enough to vote for him over any Dem." 

There are.

And there are plenty who say, and might even have convinced themselves that they won't vote Trump. But they'll succumb to the talking points about whoever the D candidate is, and reluctantly pull the lever for Trump again, then blame Democrats and Millennials for putting up such a terrible candidate. And it won't matter which candidate it is. They'll find a way to justify it, even if it's Joe Biden.

I'm starting to think Trump is going to win again. Especially if the D party keeps giving soundbites while they have their "who loves socialism and reparations the most" purity test thing that they have going on.

Edited July 15, 2019 by BradInATX

[atomheartbevo 89789]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

Why is he still going on about this?  

 

 

 Because the media and critics said it was bad, and like a three year old caught in the act, he doubles down. 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

If you don't like it.. you can giiiiiitt out.

[atomheartbevo 89789]

1 hour ago, lemonlime said:

Because he's laying the groundwork for rounding up citizens and green card holders who aren't white, straight, "Christian," trump supporters.  Not that he's going to enact it tomorrow.  But laying seeds, like he's doing with the suggestions that he'll serve more than 2 terms.

He, and those around him, can’t think that far ahead.  He’s spooked, possibly by the Epstein stuff, so he’s lashing out.  He caught flak, and he does not admit he’s wrong - remember, he claims to be a Christian, but doesn’t believe in asking for forgiveness.   He doubles down.    

[Brisketexan 105322]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

He, and those around him, can’t think that far ahead.  He’s spooked, possibly by the Epstein stuff, so he’s lashing out.  He caught flak, and he does not admit he’s wrong - remember, he claims to be a Christian, but doesn’t believe in asking for forgiveness.   He doubles down.    

Like the Epstein stuff even matters.  There could be footage from three angles of Trump ass-raping an infant to death, and his base would -- simultaneously - condemn the videos as "fake news" and shout  "that baby was a member of ISIS and had it coming -- only a hero like Trump is brave enough to give terrorists the ass-raping they deserve!"

Nothing.  Matters.  Don't now what it's going to take for some of y'all to figure that out.

Edited July 15, 2019 by Brisketexan

[WhatTheBuck 28798]

29 minutes ago, retread said:

Regardless of who the D nominee is, Cheeto will get a ton of mileage out of using Socialism/Communism. Those words alone will buy him some undecideds.

Trump has a love affair with a Communist. 

[TexArcher 38057]

12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm starting to think Trump is going to win again. Especially if the D party keeps giving soundbites while they have their "who loves socialism the most" purity test thing that they have going on.

If the Democrats are going to keep talking about free healthcare for illegal immigrants and reparations and then nominate a far left progressive, they are going to lose.

I agree with most of the progressive agenda, but this is not the time.  This election will be about the middle.  And priority #1 has to be averting the unmitigated, historical disaster that a Trump second term would be.

Save the country first.  The progressive agenda can wait until 2024, or at least until 2021.  You don't have to campaign on something to implement it after you win.  Just shoot for the god damned middle and get this train wreck out of there.  It's so simple and obvious and I'm afraid they're gonna fuck it up anyway.

Edited July 15, 2019 by TexArcher

[WhatTheBuck 28798]

27 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

he doesn't have much in terms of accomplishments (sp?), so he will have to go hard on the hate.

i was sorta joking in an earlier posting, but that's trump's blueprint - figure out who the dem nominee will be, then spend 8 months getting their disapproval number into the 50's.  lies, fear, racism, distortion, accusation will all be on the menu.  along with a huge dose of the word "socialism", regardless of who it is.

you think his tweets are bad now, wait til super tuesday.

Wait until he gets Bill Barr to throw the Democratic nominee in jail on literally trumped up charges. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 hours ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Can someone make a super cyan torbush gif for all things EMAW?

Shhhhh. He’s still sleeping. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Like the Epstein stuff even matters.  There could be footage from three angles of Trump ass-raping an infant to death, and his base would -- simultaneously - condemn the videos as "fake news" and shout  "that baby was a member of ISIS and had it coming -- only a hero like Trump is brave enough to give terrorists the ass-raping they deserve!"

Nothing.  Matters.  Don't now what it's going to take for some of y'all to figure that out.

It doesn’t matter to republicans, who make up about 30 percent of the country. It matters to everyone else. 

Stop being a Nancy. Trump isn’t going to win. No matter what his shithole base thinks or says. 

[Biff Tannen 45733]

1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

If the Democrats are going to keep talking about free healthcare for illegal immigrants and reparations and then nominate a far left progressive, they are going to lose.

I agree with most of the progressive agenda, but this is not the time.  This election will be about the middle.  And priority #1 has to be averting the unmitigated, historical disaster that a Trump second term would be.

Save the country first.  The progressive agenda can wait until 2024, or at least until 2021.  You don't have to campaign on something to implement it after you win.  Just shoot for the god damned middle and get this train wreck out of there.  It's so simple and obvious and I'm afraid they're gonna fuck it up anyway.

I go back and forth on this.  Part of me thinks you are right, but then again, looking at the approval ratings, as said earlier, they never move.  People have their minds made up.

[elfenix 34332]

15 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

If the Democrats are going to keep talking about free healthcare for illegal immigrants

but LiBeRaL mEdIa!

[David Dennison 18946]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I go back and forth on this.  Part of me thinks you are right, but then again, looking at the approval ratings, as said earlier, they never move.  People have their minds made up.

The Democrats could nominate Mao Zedong in 2020 and Donald Trump would lose.

 

[Brisketexan 105322]

16 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

It doesn’t matter to republicans, who make up about 30 percent of the country. It matters to everyone else. 

Stop being a Nancy. Trump isn’t going to win. No matter what his shithole base thinks or says. 

Again, it's not about approval/disapproval  It's about turnout.  His strategy is to suppress enthusiasm for his opponent, and to keep his voters riled up and itching to vote.  He has State TV and a hostile foreign government already assisting him.  His chances of getting more votes where it counts on election day are very, very good.

[retread 2951]

7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I go back and forth on this.  Part of me thinks you are right, but then again, looking at the approval ratings, as said earlier, they never move.  People have their minds made up.

Also, the Rs will not be playing by the rules at all. Voter suppression, inadequate voting machines, Russian help for the second time, demagoguery on social media, etc. It will be out of control.

[TexArcher 38057]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

The Democrats could nominate Mao Zedong in 2020 and Donald Trump would lose.

 

Sorry, but this is wrong.

All of the progressive candidates are barely polling ahead of Trump.  And Trump still has the same silent voting bloc that he had last time.  They don't talk about it at work, they certainly won't answer a polling phone call, they don't want anyone to know they're going to vote for Trump for myriad reasons, but they are going to vote for Trump.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

If the Democrats are going to keep talking about free healthcare for illegal immigrants and reparations and then nominate a far left progressive, they are going to lose.

I agree with most of the progressive agenda, but this is not the time.  This election will be about the middle.  And priority #1 has to be averting the unmitigated, historical disaster that a Trump second term would be.

Save the country first.  The progressive agenda can wait until 2024, or at least until 2021.  You don't have to campaign on something to implement it after you win.  Just shoot for the god damned middle and get this train wreck out of there.  It's so simple and obvious and I'm afraid they're gonna fuck it up anyway.

It’s not going to be enough to just beat Trump.  Someone is going to need to overhaul the corrupt system that got us here and clean up Trump’s mess so we don’t get Don Jr in 2024.  

Playing to the middle is the wrong move as well. You need a strong leader with conviction.  That was Trump and Bernie’s appeal in 2016.  They both had radical agendas to blow up the system and there was a lot of horseshoe crossover between Bernie and Trump supporters.  

Running a candidate with a slogan of “nothing will fundamentally change” is a loser.   You need an economic populist that offers a believable alternative to the fake economic populism of Trump who blames immigrants and Muslims for their ills.  

Trump getting re-elected isn’t the end of the world either, it will just make the inevitable catharsis more intense and violent.  Regardless, catharsis is coming, one way or another. 

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[David Dennison 18946]

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Sorry, but this is wrong.

All of the progressive candidates are barely polling ahead of Trump.  And Trump still has the same silent voting bloc that he had last time.  They don't talk about it at work, they certainly won't answer a polling phone call, they don't want anyone to know they're going to vote for Trump for myriad reasons, but they are going to vote for Trump.

He's going to lose badly. 

[TexArcher 38057]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s not going to be enough to just beat Trump.  Someone is going to need Trump getting re-elected isn’t the end of the world either, it will just make the inevitable catharsis more intense and violent.  Regardless, catharsis is coming, one way or another. 

I agree with what you said until this, but this is where we diverge.  I think Trump being re-elected may literally be the end of the world.

But I do think Kamala can be that strong leader who offers a real alternative.  I just want her to come back to the middle on some things.  Or let Joe be the guy.  They can win.  I don't think Bernie or Liz can win.  I like them both, but they're a big risk.

Edited July 15, 2019 by TexArcher

[bolverk 29717]

For what it's worth, which is nothing, Flake said he hopes Trump will lose in 2020 during an NPR interview this evening. While I couldn't hear his brows furrowing, the sadness in his voice was unmistakable. It was almost as if he had some real regrets about not taking a stand sooner and now understands how dire this situation really is.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Why do rural hicks care so much about Zionism?

Oh yeah. The apocalypse and the return of Jesus after the world had been destroyed. How could I forget. How rational. 

[suddenly shaggy 929]

4 minutes ago, retread said:

Also, the Rs will not be playing by the rules at all. Voter suppression, inadequate voting machines, Russian help for the second time, demagoguery on social media, etc. It will be out of control.

^ Trump going to win unless there is a landslide against him. This is an existential crisis for Putin, just as much as it is for Trump. A democrat winning the Presidency and democrats taking the Senate is a nightmare scenario for both of them. Trump would be criminally charged (NY state and likely federal charges) and Russia would face massive sanctions at a minimum.

The GOP voter suppression regime will pull out every trick in the book and Russia's interference in 2020 will make their 2016 efforts look like child's play. The last election was decided by 50,000 votes in a few key states. The map looks different now, but not different enough to overcome the unprecedented voter suppression and Russian interference that is about to happen.