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Donald Trump 2019


Francisco 2.0

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2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So the TV pundits seem to believe Trump exploiting the racial divide is some kind of political strategy.   I have a hard time believing Trump has any strategy other than throwing shit at the wall everyday trying to piss off as many people as possible.  

Seems to me he’s trying to exhaust the electorate/media in hopes most people tune out or give up before an impeachment or election process begins. I don’t know if Trump is doing this consciously but he might inadvertently move public opinion more in favor of impeachment in the process. 

He’s still a racist piece of shit regardless.

Have to watch how much Trump may have jumped the shark with racism over the past week.  Not with the spitting hardcore racists, but with those people who don't consciously acknowledge going along with it until suddenly they're jolted into the realization.  You can appeal to a lot of darker aspects of human nature, and get them to go along, but risk pushing it to a point where the association is too much.  Probably not enough people having the spell broken as should, but Trump really lost it this past week.

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6 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

This election will be both the first, and the last, election that Generation X is actually the swing vote. In the future the millenials will have the majority and will decide it. 

'24 will be a nightmare election for the Rs.

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Will he refine his attack for whoever wins the nomination?  Sure, but he runs the risk of somebody that won't be nearly as scary as Hillary, and that could even do him harm in the polls with the debates and on the campaign trail.  And unfortunately for Trump, he's not very original and can't think on his feet, and has the tendency to assume that what won before, will win again. 

I hope you're right. Do Trump and Bannon still talk? He's the one that fed Trump 'Build the Wall.' Even if he's not around, Rush, Hannity, Tucker, and the others will feed him lines for his rallies. The demonization will certainly be spread over a group of people this time in order to put the Socialist stamp on the D nominee.

"Just look at the Squad and the rest of the D candidates. They all have radical ideas that will transform our country in a bad way."

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

 And unfortunately for Trump, he's not very original and can't think on his feet, and has the tendency to assume that what won before, will win again.  Whoever is his challenger will know his weaknesses from 2016, plus all of the additional stuff (the Cohen stuff/coverups, the rape accusations, the Epstein stuff, etc.).

And nobody in the 2020 field of Ds is as much of a bogeyman now as Hillary was to his base in 2015-2016.

I wish I were as optimistic as you, but man....I just can't be.

Besides, whoever the Dems will nominate will fuck it up.  They can run every ad during Fox News primetime hour showing how many coal mines closed during Trump's presidency (68, I believe to date), show pictures of him with a 14 year old supplied by Epstein, wave about a rape test kit finding Trump's DNA, show copies of his tax returns, whatever.  Team D will try to talk policy and details and nuance in an attempt to counter whatever slogan Trump & Co. has came up with, and that's not how to beat a bully's ass.  His support will not decrease, and in November 20, everyone will be banking on an electorate that historically just doesn't show up at the polls as the only salvation the country has.  And this same electorate has had an additional 2+ years (in some states) of measures placed upon them in an attempt to actively dissuade them from voting.

Damn, I want to be wrong, and maybe I will, but Brisket's ledge looks pretty good.

 

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5 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

I wish I were as optimistic as you, but man....I just can't be.

Obama was President less than 3 years ago.  Granted, there are no Obamas in the primaries now, but the crotchety Boomers around now were crotchety Boomers in 2008 and 2012, and they couldn't do shit.

I agree, the Dems can fuck this up, but I have to imagine that at the campaign level, there are still remnants of Obama's campaign teams and that's just as important as whose name is on the actual ballot.  

Finally, lest we forget, as deplorable as Hillary was, it was only 70,000 votes in three states.  And those three states elected Dems last year, even though Trump personally campaigned in them.  And he lost Arizona as well.

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10 minutes ago, retread said:

I hope you're right. Do Trump and Bannon still talk? He's the one that fed Trump 'Build the Wall.' Even if he's not around, Rush, Hannity, Tucker, and the others will feed him lines for his rallies.

Bannon was far better at figuring out things than Rush/Hannity/Tucker combined.   Hannity is still obsessed with Hillary - a one-trick pony.

Bannon is also smart enough to realize that people he worked with are doing some serious jail time, so me thinks he is out of the campaign business.

Plus, Trump thinks Bannon claimed too much credit for Trump's win, and that's probably one of the biggest no-no's in the Trumpian World.  

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13 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Have to watch how much Trump may have jumped the shark with racism over the past week.  Not with the spitting hardcore racists, but with those people who don't consciously acknowledge going along with it until suddenly they're jolted into the realization.  You can appeal to a lot of darker aspects of human nature, and get them to go along, but risk pushing it to a point where the association is too much.  Probably not enough people having the spell broken as should, but Trump really lost it this past week.

Agreed.  He unleashed on a fairly popular black leader and black community, called him a racist and basically said that community was a shithole, a community that his son-in-law owns properties in.    There was no mistaking the hatred behind it, and he still doubled down on it.

He is giving black voters more and more of a reason to vote next year, and even if they only voted 5-10% more than normal, combine that with the lack of Hillary, plus the people who voted for him, but weren't diehard Trump fans, and who ended up financially harmed by his policies, etc., and it's enough.

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bannon is the kind of guy that would work with the democrats to destroy Trump for fun and money. 

Bannon’s ideology is pretty much “rock the boat until it capsizes.”

Given that Trump attacked Breitbart and Bannon,  I could see him fucking around with Trump.    Trump was really pissed that the media gave Bannon a lot of credit for his win.

Is Breitbart still a thing?  Does the right still care about it?

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http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/trumps-method-of-liking-tweets-is-needlessly-complicated.html?utm_campaign=nym&utm_medium=s1&utm_source=tw

 

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The irony of Donald Trump’s Twitter dominance is that, apart from his apparent mastery of the microblogging platform, he’s largely a luddite. He doesn’t use a computer, he’s likely never downloaded an app, and, as Politico reported Monday, he does all of his news reading (with the exception of Fox News chyrons) on paper.

He even has his staff print out the Drudge Report for him.

But the most eye-popping revelation from Politico’s dive into Trump’s reading habits is his decidedly analog method for “liking” tweets. First, a quick reminder of the accepted method for liking tweets: Click the heart.

 

 

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Now, Trump’s method for “liking” tweets:

The president has even been known to sends printouts of tweets he likes. After he liked one Gaetz tweet, he had it printed by a staffer, signed it and requested that it be sent to Gaetz’s congressional office, where the now-framed tweet hangs.

Recalling Trump’s past as a hotelier, Gaetz said, “This is the proverbial Trump gift basket waiting for you in your suite or sent to you.”

 

Quote

The president’s Twitter account, @realDonaldTrump, has liked only three tweets that remained liked. One, from 2013, is from someone telling Trump he’s “hurt the GOP as much as anybody.” Another, also from 2013, is a tweet promoting an article about Trump wines. And the third, from 2017, is from a liberal who writes that Trump is “just not presidential material.”

Among the tweets that Trump has previously liked, but subsequently unliked, is one praising Rihanna for her work-life balance.

 

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Hillary won by 3M votes. I'll bet the D in '20 won't win by that much. Nancy's tepid response to the Mueller report is surely not helping rev up potential D voters.

We all know that '16 was decided by a few thousand votes, but Trump and Putin also know this.

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47 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Have to watch how much Trump may have jumped the shark with racism over the past week.  Not with the spitting hardcore racists, but with those people who don't consciously acknowledge going along with it until suddenly they're jolted into the realization.  You can appeal to a lot of darker aspects of human nature, and get them to go along, but risk pushing it to a point where the association is too much.  Probably not enough people having the spell broken as should, but Trump really lost it this past week.


Yep. Each time he tweets, he loses a few more supporters.  He never gains ANY. Nobody who hates him suddenly starts liking him, but a few who were at least tolerant of him are leaving, and some of the vociferous supporters grow less vocal. 

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back to the age demo conversation, the two things that are encouraging (besides the 2018 midterm results), are:

-polling shows that the young people have a horrific opinion of the gop.  and this poll was likely conducted using only 18+ people.  new people turn 18 every day, and i doubt their opinion is much better.  young people turning 18 and older people dying off is bad for the gop no matter how many "young r's" are floating around.

-in general, people in the 16-22 range - who have essentially lived their entire lives online - seem less likely to be trapped in an ideological bubble like in decades past - where your group of friends or family members greatly determined your beliefs growing up.  where you watched the news your parents watched.  kids these days are connected across the country through social media platforms, and consume content from all over the place - not just whatever is on your living room tv at home.  they also are intimately involved with celebrities they're into through social media.  i don't need to tell you who those people favor.

 

young people tend to like radical, jarring, progressive ideas (part of everyone's instinct to rebel against their parents/society/the man/the system).  that's why young people love bernie so much.  young people don't want to be put in a box.  they don't want to be labeled.  they want to identify how they want.  they're about inclusion.  they don't want to be told what to do or how to live.  and now that social media exists, these movements spread faster and farther than they ever could before.

there will always be exceptions, but i don't see longtime staples of rightwing policy (especially the religious right) speaking to young people who are experiencing their 20's in a completely different way and aren't even thinking about taxes yet.  but hey, they might be thinking about cheap healthcare and college.

republicans have had a really hard time winning the popular vote recently.  does anyone see that changing any time soon?  if you can get the math right, sure, you can thread the needle.  but the trends point towards the left.  and deep down, the right knows this too. 

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16 minutes ago, retread said:

Hillary won by 3M votes. I'll bet the D in '20 won't win by that much. Nancy's tepid response to the Mueller report is surely not helping rev up potential D voters.

We all know that '16 was decided by a few thousand votes, but Trump and Putin also know this.

i'll take that bet and give you odds.  i'm predicting a 5-6mm+

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Leaking?  More like dying of old age.
I agree with your post (can't posrep right now).  Nobody fires his potential voters up like Hillary.  I'm not even sure Warren could shoot somebody in the head in a federal park, and still inspire that kind of hatred that Hillary did.
First post in years that gives me some hope. They had decades worth of hate for Hillary. That can't be matched in 9 months

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34 minutes ago, retread said:

Hillary won by 3M votes. I'll bet the D in '20 won't win by that much. Nancy's tepid response to the Mueller report is surely not helping rev up potential D voters.

We all know that '16 was decided by a few thousand votes, but Trump and Putin also know this.

I want action. I get paid this Friday and live paycheck to paycheck. But beware, it's a pretty big paycheck.

Semi-intellectuals in the suburbs, women that don't take physical abuse from their partners, and will bleks be motivated to get out the vote.

QED

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22 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

back to the age demo conversation, the two things that are encouraging (besides the 2018 midterm results), are:

-polling shows that the young people have a horrific opinion of the gop.  and this poll was likely conducted using only 18+ people.  new people turn 18 every day, and i doubt their opinion is much better.  young people turning 18 and older people dying off is bad for the gop no matter how many "young r's" are floating around.

-in general, people in the 16-22 range - who have essentially lived their entire lives online - seem less likely to be trapped in an ideological bubble like in decades past - where your group of friends or family members greatly determined your beliefs growing up.  where you watched the news your parents watched.  kids these days are connected across the country through social media platforms, and consume content from all over the place - not just whatever is on your living room tv at home.  they also are intimately involved with celebrities they're into through social media.  i don't need to tell you who those people favor.

 

young people tend to like radical, jarring, progressive ideas (part of everyone's instinct to rebel against their parents/society/the man/the system).  that's why young people love bernie so much.  young people don't want to be put in a box.  they don't want to be labeled.  they want to identify how they want.  they're about inclusion.  they don't want to be told what to do or how to live.  and now that social media exists, these movements spread faster and farther than they ever could before.

there will always be exceptions, but i don't see longtime staples of rightwing policy (especially the religious right) speaking to young people who are experiencing their 20's in a completely different way and aren't even thinking about taxes yet.  but hey, they might be thinking about cheap healthcare and college.

republicans have had a really hard time winning the popular vote recently.  does anyone see that changing any time soon?  if you can get the math right, sure, you can thread the needle.  but the trends point towards the left.  and deep down, the right knows this too. 

My oldest son just turned 18. He’s much more conservative than I am today, and is much more conservative than I was when I was his age. And back when I was 18 I actually considered myself a Republican. He’s also a much better person than me both today and when I was his age, but that’s beside the point.

The point is he despises trump and the current state of the Republican Party. He is very smart and recognizes that the party has completely lost its way and will be voting for whoever the dem candidate is in 2020. And will vote dem for the foreseeable future.

That’s who the republicans have lost, and why they will continue to lose for at least the next 20 years or so until they completely dissolve or change their ways. 

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They have had the oldest viewer averages for something like 20+ years now.
They keep cultivating younger audiences, some how.  And those younger audiences become part of the oldest viewer average.  
Customs agent at my GE interview was 50- ish. Had all the Fox News talking points about being careful in Shitholes like Baltimore, NYC and Chicago. Had it blaring on the TV above his desk. Was super concerned I couldn't take brass knuckles or a large knife into Manhattan. Really exposed terrors I hadn't yet imagined.

I've decided to shift my fall vacation to Alabama or Mississippi.

The narrative that these types are going extinct is absurd. They are born daily, cultivated, and get indoctrinated. Business is booming on conning these people

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I was one of those Young Rs.  I maybe a man now, but I volunteered on W's gubernatorial and Presidential campaigns when I was young.  Things like Iraq disillusioned a lot of us, among many other things, and then we had Obama, who wasn't the bogeyman that he was made out to be.  And now we have Trump, who is living up to the stereotype of being an older Republican who gives no shits about the younger generations, both Rs and Ds.
I'm sure some younger Rs will vote for him, but if you took away his office and the current letter next to his name, and just left him with his tweets, he's exactly the kind of person that the younger crowd, Rs and Ds, would mock for saying stupid shit on twitter.
I switched too. I was swindled. I had high hopes for W. I was WRONG.
- Gen Xer

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Rural kids, red state small town kids- hell I see Maga Hat kids in west Austin. They are raised red and stay that way. Shitty Schools, De Facto segregation etc. Senate is a long way from being in play. Potus is at best a coin flip. GOP dead cat bounce is going to take awhile.

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28 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

I switched too. I was swindled. I had high hopes for W. I was WRONG.
- Gen Xer

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it should also be said - w is not trump.  i'm not sticking up for w or his presidency, but a lot has changed in ~15 years.  mistakes were made back then in the midst of an actual conflict, not a manufactured crisis with a political agenda.

i think there's plenty of people that voted/liked w and can't fucking stand trump or his minions.  shit, trump trashes the bush family every chance he gets and barbara supported hrc.

hillary was polarizing in 16.  trump will be polarizing in 20.  it won't be a party thing.  but it could certainly stain the gop for long after trump is dismissed.

ideal scenario - the 40% shows up, gets waxed, and trump's anchor weighs down and fucks up some senate/congressional races.

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it should also be said - w is not trump.  i'm not sticking up for w or his presidency, but a lot has changed in ~15 years.  mistakes were made back then in the midst of an actual conflict, not a manufactured crisis with a political agenda.

i think there's plenty of people that voted/liked w and can't fucking stand trump or his minions.  shit, trump trashes the bush family every chance he gets and barbara supported hrc.

hillary was polarizing in 16.  trump will be polarizing in 20.  it won't be a party thing.  but it could certainly stain the gop for long after trump is dismissed.

ideal scenario - the 40% shows up, gets waxed, and trump's anchor weighs down and fucks up some senate/congressional races.

W was in over his head and got lead astray by the people who put him there in the first place. He was and is still a good guy,  but was a terrible president. I really don’t even think he wanted it in the first place. But such a thing is hard to turn down when its offered and handed to you. If he became president next year I think it would have been different, but obviously that will never happen. 

 

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

That's why the counter-strategy needs to be focused on building actual enthusiasm, and getting turnout.  Without those, every other part of a strategy is pointless.

Republicans are actively inviting and encouraging foreign interference in the election and aren’t even trying to hide the fact that they will be fixing the vote.  Turnout won’t matter.  

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it should also be said - w is not trump.  i'm not sticking up for w or his presidency, but a lot has changed in ~15 years.  mistakes were made back then in the midst of an actual conflict, not a manufactured crisis with a political agenda.

i think there's plenty of people that voted/liked w and can't fucking stand trump or his minions.  shit, trump trashes the bush family every chance he gets and barbara supported hrc.

hillary was polarizing in 16.  trump will be polarizing in 20.  it won't be a party thing.  but it could certainly stain the gop for long after trump is dismissed.

ideal scenario - the 40% shows up, gets waxed, and trump's anchor weighs down and fucks up some senate/congressional races.

Mistakes were made? I knew when Dubya was elected that we'd be at war in Iraq come re-election time. No mistakes were made (other than electing that pinhead). The administration intentionally misconstrued and fabricated intelligence in order to sell the Iraq War to the American people. It wasn't due to mistakes within the intelligence community.

Bush/Cheney foreshadowed all of this and their implication that the Iraq War was due to faulty intelligence is a big part of it. They weren't interested in intelligence. They had a war to sell. All they were interested in was anything they could use to sell the war and it didn't matter if it was reliable or not. By shirking responsibility for their actions and blaming faulty intelligence they laid the groundwork for Trump ignoring the intelligence services altogether. 

Maybe you're thinking of other mistakes but that's what came to me. 

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2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Mistakes were made? I knew when Dubya was elected that we'd be at war in Iraq come re-election time. No mistakes were made (other than electing that pinhead). The administration intentionally misconstrued and fabricated intelligence in order to sell the Iraq War to the American people. It wasn't due to mistakes within the intelligence community.

Bush/Cheney foreshadowed all of this and their implication that the Iraq War was due to faulty intelligence is a big part of it. They weren't interested in intelligence. They had a war to sell. All they were interested in was anything they could use to sell the war and it didn't matter if it was reliable or not. By shirking responsibility for their actions and blaming faulty intelligence they laid the groundwork for Trump ignoring the intelligence services altogether. 

Maybe you're thinking of other mistakes but that's what came to me. 

"mistakes were made" was really just the phrase i chose to start my sentence, not my fucking thesis statement.  my intention was to say that 9/11 happened, which gave cover to the people in power to do whatever they wanted to do, without any real-time repercussions.

i was comparing it to, say, separating families and locking kids in cages - which was supposedly "justified" because trump decided to change the laws on his own, and declare a national emergency.

i think w is generally a decent human who got manipulated by stronger men who knew how to accomplish what they wanted to do.  9/11, unfortunately, allowed much of this to go on relatively unpunished, because tragedy has a way of uniting the country.  not using this as an excuse, just citing the timing.  i was never claiming the iraq war was some sort of accident.

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

"mistakes were made" was really just the phrase i chose to start my sentence, not my fucking thesis statement.  my intention was to say that 9/11 happened, which gave cover to the people in power to do whatever they wanted to do, without any real-time repercussions.

i was comparing it to, say, separating families and locking kids in cages - which was supposedly "justified" because trump decided to change the laws on his own, and declare a national emergency.

i think w is generally a decent human who got manipulated by stronger men who knew how to accomplish what they wanted to do.  9/11, unfortunately, allowed much of this to go on relatively unpunished, because tragedy has a way of uniting the country.  not using this as an excuse, just citing the timing.  i was never claiming the iraq war was some sort of accident.

Dubya being a useful idiot to give others cover for their nefarious machinations is another way in which he foreshadowed this presidency. He's a decent human compared to Trump. That's a pretty low hurdle. He's a rich frat boy douchebag who failed upwards his entire life. He mocked a woman on death row. He's the sort of friend who would've hit on your girlfriend when you weren't around. 

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26 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I now really need a framed original of some nutter’s random tweet actually printed out and signed by the President.   That’s just perfect through the looking glass stuff for this bizarre time.

Another good one is how he tears official documents into tiny pieces like a mental patient. WH staff has to tape them back together for posterity.

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1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

W was in over his head and got lead astray by the people who put him there in the first place. He was and is still a good guy,  but was a terrible president. I really don’t even think he wanted it in the first place. But such a thing is hard to turn down when its offered and handed to you. If he became president next year I think it would have been different, but obviously that will never happen. 

I'm fairly certain that if you asked the families of the guys I knew, who were killed in Iraq, that they have a fairly low opinion of W, as do I.

Iraq was on him.  He was the President. 

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2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

-in general, people in the 16-22 range - who have essentially lived their entire lives online - seem less likely to be trapped in an ideological bubble like in decades past - where your group of friends or family members greatly determined your beliefs growing up.  where you watched the news your parents watched.  kids these days are connected across the country through social media platforms, and consume content from all over the place - not just whatever is on your living room tv at home.  they also are intimately involved with celebrities they're into through social media.  i don't need to tell you who those people favor.

Those kids in the 16-22 range would have also heard their parents/grandparents/relatives bitching about medical costs, Social Security, jobs, etc. and they would look at the rich guy in the White House, on twitter basically waging war on a chunk of America, and in particular the poors, but plenty of others, and clearly favoring the rich.

So then they take a look at the Ds, and the Ds are out there saying "we want you to have healthcare and social security" and "we need to build a future for our kids" and so on, and it sounds a helluva lot better than some 70 year-old on the shitter ranting about some mostly-black city.

They may lack real-world experience, but they can definitely differentiate between Trump and Mitch's doings, and what the Ds are wanting to do.

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