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2019 Rain Thread

Biff Tannen

By Biff Tannen
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phdhorn
phdhorn

Figured I'd post this here, it's where you'd look for me. First, thanks very much for the concern (I had no idea), it's appreciated.  I mean, really?  Wow, that's been surprising. Second, I'm fi

DonnyKerabatsos
DonnyKerabatsos

is the excessive rain this year being triggered from the ash rising to the atmosphere from the concentration camps on our border?  Like volcanoes creating storms when the erupt? 

Patricio Swayze
Patricio Swayze

So after my company started sending people home, a coworker of mine who takes the metro in from cypress left to catch the bus. He got to the NW transit center at 610 and old Katy road and they decided

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Eh, first real spring (typical) severe weather watches for our area.  Being in the "enhanced" portion of the area is a little uncomfortable, but we're on the very southwest chunk of it.  

Saving a lot of time/writing, where the bad weather happens in situations like this is the small area where the lift/turbulence is worst.  This can be caused by a few things, like the Jet directly overhead of an area, a little isobar "ripple" where 2 air masses provide a lot of lift and cause violent shear (producing large hail and/or tornadoes).  Where this happens is ???? at best along the line.

That forecast above says the best thing is that the storms will converge, merge, and line up.  Then the hail risk gets to be a little less, and tornadic activity as well.  The most likely problem then is high winds in a straight line.

Td;dr:  meh, I'll take a look at the radar around 2-3 p.m. tomorrow, then I'll get a good idea of the strength/nature of the development.

Definitely gonna be bumpy in a lot of parts 'round here especially tomorrow night late (midnight or past), but for the most part just a good dousing rain, lots of electricity, and some wind.  Where the bad stuff is, is going to become more obvious tomorrow afternoon.  But it won't be everywhere, just a few places.  And not sure if Frankie made like 5-6 other videos to DFW, Waco, etc. but Austin isn't really in the center of the bullseye, although we're close.  Worst of it should be NE of us.

More tomorrow if I'm not drunk.  Or maybe if I am.

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Redneck Mutha

Redneck Mutha 7957

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Worst of it should be NE of us.

No bueno for those in Franklin and up further NE along US 79 who got hammered the other day.

Always appreciate your updates.  Gonna batten down the hatches after work today, make sure the patio umbrella and other potential projectiles are properly stowed and hope for minimal negative impact.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Today's early update = that the biggest "risk" here today seems to be hail.  Of course that's usually not widespread, some unlucky path would get it.  Tornado risk is low, straight-line wind is moderate, and flooding is low (moderate in some spots, but this line is going to move pretty fast and even if it's drenching, it's not parking or training).

Once the storms fire up about 4-5 p.m. well west of us, it'll be clearer what we're looking at.  Still think most of the worst of it will be E/NE of us for the most part... we'll see.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yeah, I guess I'm used to that zig zag wind.

 

17 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Looks like a giant saw blade heading straight for us.  I don't see how we survive this one.  Smoke if you got 'em.

It's the only way!
zig-zag-orange-1.25.jpg

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105151

Posted
Posted

Our Norwegian friends are heading up to Dallas tonight to watch the Stars playoff game.  They intend to drive back after the game (figure the game ends around 10:00).  That would put them on I-35 from Dallas to Austin between 10:00 and 1:00 or so.  I've advised them to pack a change of clothes, and plan on staying in a hotel on the south side of Dallas, at best.

I might drive home in this shit, but they have NO idea what they'd be driving in, and even if he can handle it, I doubt that he can handle being in a minivan with three women about to piss their pants as hail comes down.

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CHEF DIESEL

CHEF DIESEL 126

Posted
Posted

Dallas proper is overdue for some severe weather. Not talking the suburbs up near Oklahoma but the urban core. Last time we saw big hail was June 2012.

I saw the Jarrell tornado in person from I-35 in 1997 and don't wish that on anyone. That was the hand of God unleashing hell.

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utee94

utee94 15824

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Our Norwegian friends are heading up to Dallas tonight to watch the Stars playoff game.  They intend to drive back after the game (figure the game ends around 10:00).  That would put them on I-35 from Dallas to Austin between 10:00 and 1:00 or so.  I've advised them to pack a change of clothes, and plan on staying in a hotel on the south side of Dallas, at best.

I might drive home in this shit, but they have NO idea what they'd be driving in, and even if he can handle it, I doubt that he can handle being in a minivan with three women about to piss their pants as hail comes down.

They should definitely grab a hotel.  The last thing they want to do is be in a hailstorm, and...

 

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utee94

utee94 15824

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

Dallas proper is overdue for some severe weather. Not talking the suburbs up near Oklahoma but the urban core. Last time we saw big hail was June 2012.

I saw the Jarrell tornado in person from I-35 in 1997 and don't wish that on anyone. That was the hand of God unleashing hell.

We haven't had serious hail anywhere near me in NW Austin/CP since 2009.

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Longhorn Al

Longhorn Al 440

Posted
Posted

I love these weather events.  I hate the damage they can cause.  When they start rolling in, you can just feel the energy outside.  It's pretty exhilarating.  I'm just hoping for no hail and for my fence to remain upright.

A couple weekends ago I experienced some of the closest lightning strikes in my life.  One was at C. Hunt's off Burnet Rd.  Lunch time, just started to rain.  Lightning struck a pole about 50 feet from where I was sitting.  That was extremely loud and bright.  An hour later a transformer blew.  Again, about 50 feet from me.  Later that night I was back in Kyle when the second wave came through.  Small hail and lightning strikes in my neighborhood.  House-shaking thunder.

Loved every minute of it.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Longhorn Al said:

I love these weather events.  I hate the damage they can cause.  When they start rolling in, you can just feel the energy outside.  It's pretty exhilarating.  I'm just hoping for no hail and for my fence to remain upright.

A couple weekends ago I experienced some of the closest lightning strikes in my life.  One was at C. Hunt's off Burnet Rd.  Lunch time, just started to rain.  Lightning struck a pole about 50 feet from where I was sitting.  That was extremely loud and bright.  An hour later a transformer blew.  Again, about 50 feet from me.  Later that night I was back in Kyle when the second wave came through.  Small hail and lightning strikes in my neighborhood.  House-shaking thunder.

Loved every minute of it.

You need to start buying some new water breh 

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austingirl

austingirl 2191

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Eh, first real spring (typical) severe weather watches for our area.  Being in the "enhanced" portion of the area is a little uncomfortable, but we're on the very southwest chunk of it.  

Saving a lot of time/writing, where the bad weather happens in situations like this is the small area where the lift/turbulence is worst.  This can be caused by a few things, like the Jet directly overhead of an area, a little isobar "ripple" where 2 air masses provide a lot of lift and cause violent shear (producing large hail and/or tornadoes).  Where this happens is ???? at best along the line.

That forecast above says the best thing is that the storms will converge, merge, and line up.  Then the hail risk gets to be a little less, and tornadic activity as well.  The most likely problem then is high winds in a straight line.

Td;dr:  meh, I'll take a look at the radar around 2-3 p.m. tomorrow, then I'll get a good idea of the strength/nature of the development.

Definitely gonna be bumpy in a lot of parts 'round here especially tomorrow night late (midnight or past), but for the most part just a good dousing rain, lots of electricity, and some wind.  Where the bad stuff is, is going to become more obvious tomorrow afternoon.  But it won't be everywhere, just a few places.  And not sure if Frankie made like 5-6 other videos to DFW, Waco, etc. but Austin isn't really in the center of the bullseye, although we're close.  Worst of it should be NE of us.

More tomorrow if I'm not drunk.  Or maybe if I am.

More drunk forecasts/weather analysis, please. For Surly. I still crack up thinking about the one you did during Harvey.

Edited by austingirl
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Quickie update:  the front just came through Amarillo, you can see the storms firing up in the Oklahoma panhandle ahead of it.


Bit of temporary good news:  no dinural rotating storms today, as slightly feared... cap is still on the atmosphere and the cloud cover has held, keeping heat down.

That leaves tonight's episode... looked at NWS forecasts and they say better than average chance of big hail (i.e. tennis and >), but that remains only as long as the storms are isolated, i.e. not yet in a long line.  That's supposed to happen just west of us, reducing the chances of that huge hail.  Could still happen in very isolated areas, for less than a few mins. (hail that big can't sustain itself for long).

From where I sit in this chair, Gene, biggest threats tonight will be 1) moderate sized hail (golf ball) again, very scattered, and 2) straight line wind spotty damage.  Watch the radar between now and about 7.  This is when the front will catch up to the dry line, and storms will pop up on it just like herpes on a trailer park matron's mouth.  That's the one to keep an eye on.

I'm going to watch the weather and if need be, offsite garage one of our cars (no room in the inn), but right now I'm not too concerned.

However, yeah, don't be fooled... gonna be a bumpy night across pretty much all of Texas between now and 4 -5 a.m.   Worse than that in very small areas (sucks to be you if you win the "shitty weather" lottery).

More later tonight, when there are actually storms to talk about.  And there will be.

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9836

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Longhorn Al said:

I love these weather events.  I hate the damage they can cause.  When they start rolling in, you can just feel the energy outside.  It's pretty exhilarating.  I'm just hoping for no hail and for my fence to remain upright.

A couple weekends ago I experienced some of the closest lightning strikes in my life.  One was at C. Hunt's off Burnet Rd.  Lunch time, just started to rain.  Lightning struck a pole about 50 feet from where I was sitting.  That was extremely loud and bright.  An hour later a transformer blew.  Again, about 50 feet from me.  Later that night I was back in Kyle when the second wave came through.  Small hail and lightning strikes in my neighborhood.  House-shaking thunder.

Loved every minute of it.

Chester lives!!

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Quickie update:  the front just came through Amarillo, you can see the storms firing up in the Oklahoma panhandle ahead of it.


Bit of temporary good news:  no dinural rotating storms today, as slightly feared... cap is still on the atmosphere and the cloud cover has held, keeping heat down.

That leaves tonight's episode... looked at NWS forecasts and they say better than average chance of big hail (i.e. tennis and >), but that remains only as long as the storms are isolated, i.e. not yet in a long line.  That's supposed to happen just west of us, reducing the chances of that huge hail.  Could still happen in very isolated areas, for less than a few mins. (hail that big can't sustain itself for long).

From where I sit in this chair, Gene, biggest threats tonight will be 1) moderate sized hail (golf ball) again, very scattered, and 2) straight line wind spotty damage.  Watch the radar between now and about 7.  This is when the front will catch up to the dry line, and storms will pop up on it just like herpes on a trailer park matron's mouth.  That's the one to keep an eye on.

I'm going to watch the weather and if need be, offsite garage one of our cars (no room in the inn), but right now I'm not too concerned.

However, yeah, don't be fooled... gonna be a bumpy night across pretty much all of Texas between now and 4 -5 a.m.   Worse than that in very small areas (sucks to be you if you win the "shitty weather" lottery).

More later tonight, when there are actually storms to talk about.  And there will be.

Looks like the cap is starting to pop just ahead of the dry line in WiseCo up NW of FTW and west of San Saba.   Hope it doesn’t start a chain.   Could have an ugly night twice 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Line forming now... there are a few different lines but eventually they'll coalesce into one main one... which now looks like to be just west of Del Rio running up through San Angelo and just east of Graham up into Bowie.  There's another cell that's popping up ahead of it that's over Brady into just east of Comanche, but eventually one of these lines will dominate... don't really matter... Austin watch down by Sonora south into the 277 corridor west of Rocksprings... whatever hail and shit we might get will likely push NE from this area.

Here we go...

giphy.gif

Edit:  Looks like the main line is winning out with the Brady storm... again not really much difference, but watch SW of that for whatever we're gonna get to pop up next hour or so.  So far, they're potent but manageable...

Edited by phdhorn
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

Which time zone?  Because it looks like you posted this at 7:15pm central.  Did you go to Hollywood, Frankie?

Strangely, I grew up in Hollywood... MD.

Wha' happen?  I started writing this about an hour ago, thought I posted it, didn't, came back from my walk, and hit enter.  Didn't bother correcting for time.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's just behind where the line of storms is.

e.g.

220px-Dry_line_satellite_description.png

The reason why there are a few lines (at least at first) is that there's also a front being pushed by the system.  These aren't the same thing, and often they move separately.  A lot of times though one catches up to the other (usually the front to the dry line).  That's probably what's happening as we see the line coalesce.

 

It's pretty clear now where this line is tonight.. should be in our area about 11-12:30 a.m. or thereabouts.

Edited by phdhorn
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