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2019 Rain Thread

Biff Tannen

By Biff Tannen
in Daily Texan

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phdhorn
phdhorn

Figured I'd post this here, it's where you'd look for me. First, thanks very much for the concern (I had no idea), it's appreciated.  I mean, really?  Wow, that's been surprising. Second, I'm fi

DonnyKerabatsos
DonnyKerabatsos

is the excessive rain this year being triggered from the ash rising to the atmosphere from the concentration camps on our border?  Like volcanoes creating storms when the erupt? 

Patricio Swayze
Patricio Swayze

So after my company started sending people home, a coworker of mine who takes the metro in from cypress left to catch the bus. He got to the NW transit center at 610 and old Katy road and they decided

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45973

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I slept through it. Woke up at 2 and just heard some faint thunder, then went back to zzzzzzzz.

Well, I thought I was getting old, but this post iced it.  I went to lay down around 11 PM, and my wife asked "why aren't you up watching the weather like you usually do?".

I said "bitch, get over here and gi  honey, I'm tired, I'm just gonna lay here for a few, Jim Spencer will surely alert us a dozen times about impending disaster"

and then I woke up about 5 AM.

I am Armybrat.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Got a soaker coming in this Tues-Wed.  Severe maybe but at this point nope.  But models are showing several inches in parts of Western TravCo.  

This is still <cue pic> a solid El Niño spring.  And it's showing now.  One of wettest Aprils on record.  And still more.

NOAA also has prediction for us:  warmer and wetter than normal May-June-July. [insert mom jokes a-plenty here]

I'll buy it.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

The Fine Print (can skip to the chase below):

What we got goin' on here is a fairly strong low circulating right now in the middle of El Chapo Keel Your Ass Country (due west of us).  This is gonna mosey straight on over to us.  This is a little unusual; most spring storms track north of us but this guy's ridin' the rail Sud O' De' Border.  That's good for one reason - it's kinda far south and isn't pulling down a lot of colder air from NW in the continent, so the degree of instability would seem to be lower (less drastic differenc in warm/cold interface), and thus the chances of widespread violent weather are somewhat low. 

Howeverz, there's enough moisture in the air now being pulled up from the Gulf to saturate our air (you can feelz it now).  This will continue overnight, but the absence of any kind of real trigger (front, Jet, etc.) will keep rain mostly spotty showers into tomorrow morning.

Then this potent system moves right at us.  As you know (you do?) lows usually produce a kind of "comma" effect.  The tail of the comma, usually sweeping south of the center of the low, is where the most violent weather happens usually.  But closer to the center of the low you get widespread and often drenching quantities of rain.  So the low is closer to us, which means we're more in the "widespread not violent" part of the system.  However, this still can and often does mean a lot of rain.  All you need is some sort of trigger to set it off.

So here's the trigger - a weak frontal area currently is NW of us, I mean SHIT, you can SEE it up near Abilene running NE up to west of FW right now on radar!  I mean, SHIT, it's right there! [/Jim the Spence].  Anyway this front is expected to nudge in and sorta park somewhere between Fredericksburg and Bastrop - right now models are more saying NW of our area.  However, no one knows, not even the Shadow, and the most recent runs might push it a little farther east.

Anyway, here's the klingvesctch:  wherever this little frontal beauty parks, well under that people gonna get Noah'd.  Like 4-6 inches easily.  This is a heavy rainmaker for a spot.  But again, 1) it's not everyone, and 2) models predict the heaviest rain well NW of ATX - right now (evil laughter); however in these type of systems there can be some training farther east of all this (and uh, that might be us).  Currently models have backed off on us getting the flooding rain, but we saw how quickly things can go to shit forecast wise last week.  Still, looks like around our parts, 1-2 inches are about the dose, higher totals up 71 towards Brady etc.  Add to that, although there looks right now to be a good blanket of clouds that will stick around tomorrow, and keep the insolation (er, sun heating the ground and making big boom bad storms) down, with some clearing, some isolated severe storms could develop.   All this is just one of those sloppy spring mixes, unpossible to pinpoint.

The Chase:  So I'm going with this:  scattered light rain up to late Wednesday morning, then widespread moderate/heavy rain, mostly about 20 miles wide within a 100 mile wide swath somewhere between Mason County and Bastrop County - it depends on where that front parks... that's the key.  The rest of us will see longer-duration light/moderate showers as the core of the low moves over and past us.  After about 3-4 p.m. if enough heat builds up, some very scattered strong storms with some hail, high winds, very low chance of a twister.  Mostly this is a rain deal, and whatever rain is gonna happen is gonna happen between lunch and just after dinner.  System moves past us around sunset, rain tapers off by midnight.  Rest of the week is boner-inducing.

Moar tomorrow when I get my eyeballs on a radar.

Edited by phdhorn
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Addendum:  We got yet another storm tracking for us which should arrive next Tuesday (1 week).  Right now we're about #15 in wettest Aprils (and let me tell you there's nothing that beats a wet April) on record.  With this storm we could easily push it into the Top 6-7.  If next week's baby arrives on time, we could hit the top.

Say what youse want, but this April has been spectacular as far as rain... April is actually one of our drier months, with just over 2" the norm.  We're working on 6.  Insert appropriate jokes here.  El Niño bieen berry berry good to us this spring.  And yes, it is El Niño.

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5528

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

April is actually one of our drier months, with just over 2" the norm.

Hey there mister smarty science guy! Apparently you’ve never heard of the scientific model known as “April SHOWERS bring May flowers”! Maybe go back to your fancy weather school and ask your schoolmarm about that one!

ehh..Don’t forget that if that rain “bomb” drops in the right spot to the NW of us, that could generate some major flooding right here in Austin, if not even Bee Caves.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Hey there mister smarty science guy! Apparently you’ve never heard of the scientific model known as “April SHOWERS bring May flowers”! Maybe go back to your fancy weather school and ask your schoolmarm about that one!

ehh..Don’t forget that if that rain “bomb” drops in the right spot to the NW of us, that could generate some major flooding right here in Austin, if not even Bee Caves.

That's just code for herpes prevention.

A few models have shifted the heaviest rain pretty much on us (uh-oh!).  But the most reliable model (the Euro) keeps it NW.  I still like the Euro's better, sticking with that.

Just watch it tomorrow, the rain could train and hydroplane your brain to pain.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

One final look 'afore I go to bed:

If you look at any current radar, you can see where that front is... the rain is very heavy and training all along it.  Looks like DFW is going to get no-lubed overnight.  There is a chance based on this that the rain is going to start earlier for us, maybe before morning rush, although it shouldn't ramp up until after sunrise earliest.

It's all where that front parks the next 24 hours.  It's kind of moving now but is supposed to stall north of us.  If not, we're gonna get rain raped.  I guarantee it.  If not, we'll still get a good inch or more most places.

Watch the radar (pick one).  That'll tell you where the front/heavy heavy rain is.  That there's flooding rain.

Nighty-night.

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Hate

Hate 20111

Posted
Posted
One final look 'afore I go to bed:

If you look at any current radar, you can see where that front is... the rain is very heavy and training all along it.  Looks like DFW is going to get no-lubed overnight.  There is a chance based on this that the rain is going to start earlier for us, maybe before morning rush, although it shouldn't ramp up until after sunrise earliest.

It's all where that front parks the next 24 hours.  It's kind of moving now but is supposed to stall north of us.  If not, we're gonna get rain raped.  I guarantee it.  If not, we'll still get a good inch or more most places.

Watch the radar (pick one).  That'll tell you where the front/heavy heavy rain is.  That there's flooding rain.

Nighty-night.


Thanks Frankie. Good night!
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23475

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Never even had a chance to get our youngest to the park for some exercise.   

What did parents do when cooped up with their kids before Netflix came along.....

Board games, books and records by my recollection. Later on, mostly console video games. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Looks like 2 waves today...

1) The first is almost here... the front is moving because the system is moving.  Hopefully it'll push off just to our east before daytime heating ramps it up.  My thought is a moderate round of showers with this front this morning, maybe an inch or two most places, then a break.

2) The second wave is gonna hit around lunch or after.  This is the bigger one, with chances of spotty flooding, and if we get enough heat generated, some severe pinpoints later today.  If you're gonna get flooding, it'll be around this.  Visible GOES shows a buncha rain but moving through this morning (hope it keeps moving, then no flooding), with a break, then afternoon widespread moderate/heavy rain.  

All of it more or less out by dinner time (a chance of a wraparound storm later tonight but it shouldn't be severe or stationary).

Later if shit starts floating by our second story windows.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

Sooo, just after this post, storm with small hail (not damaging) is moving up into SE part of Austin.  So far it's not severe.  Probably won't get there, but this is the type of stuff moving over us most of today.

However, as typical of these more "tropical" type showers, they're quickly bubbling up and weakening with in a given cell.  Not a long-term thing if it happens.

The front looks like it's now just SE of Austin... rains will keep happening SW→NE along it, right now the heaviest is along the eastern half of the county.

This will probably vary through the day.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

So if you flew out of Love Field and parked on the lower level of the garages:

D46PwZ9W4AA82b5.jpghttps://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Rain-Floods-Cars-Parked-at-Lower-Level-of-Dallas-Love-Field-508992751.html

From less than 4 inches of rain.

https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KDAL.html

Another success story for Texas' lax standards and regulations.  So glad Love Field pinched the pennies and designed only for the bare minimum flood plain requirements, not an inch higher, not an inch wider on the drainage pipes.  Saving travelers 5 cents on fees every time they fly, keeping the airport viable.  Yee-haw!

Edited by clapclapclap
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Alright, we got one swath moving over now, another one coming in from the west, will be here in 3-4 hours.  Lots of rain in these individual blobs, some small pockets of almost severe weather (winds, brief popups of small (non-denting) hail).

Lotsa rain with this guy this afternoon.  Then outta here between dinner and sunset.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25972

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Alright, we got one swath moving over now, another one coming in from the west, will be here in 3-4 hours.  Lots of rain in these individual blobs, some small pockets of almost severe weather (winds, brief popups of small (non-denting) hail).

Lotsa rain with this guy this afternoon.  Then outta here between dinner and sunset.

Damn man, what time do you eat dinner? Oh wait, forgot you live in the Atlantic Time Zone. 

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Uncle Nate

Uncle Nate 2097

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

So if you flew out of Love Field and parked on the lower level of the garages:

D46PwZ9W4AA82b5.jpghttps://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Rain-Floods-Cars-Parked-at-Lower-Level-of-Dallas-Love-Field-508992751.html

From less than 4 inches of rain.

https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KDAL.html

Another success story for Texas' lax standards and regulations.  So glad Love Field pinched the pennies and designed only for the bare minimum flood plain requirements, not an inch higher, not an inch wider on the drainage pipes.  Saving travelers 5 cents on fees every time they fly, keeping the airport viable.  Yee-haw!

Thank God I parked on level 3 last night.  Hope it's drained enough for me to get out when I fly in later tonight.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Not necessessesessesssesarily.

Afternoon's package sorta right on time.  Long wall of heavy rain, some wind, a few sparklers approaching W. Travis now.  This gonna be close to another inch.  Fortunately line is moving and not training.

After this round, lighter rain will continue up through about Vespers (if you don't know when this is, you're going to hell, but look it up anyway).  Then more or less it's ovah.

But this next round could certainly induce some flooding here/there in an already saturated area.

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