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2019 Rain Thread

Biff Tannen

By Biff Tannen
in Daily Texan

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phdhorn
phdhorn

Figured I'd post this here, it's where you'd look for me. First, thanks very much for the concern (I had no idea), it's appreciated.  I mean, really?  Wow, that's been surprising. Second, I'm fi

DonnyKerabatsos
DonnyKerabatsos

is the excessive rain this year being triggered from the ash rising to the atmosphere from the concentration camps on our border?  Like volcanoes creating storms when the erupt? 

Patricio Swayze
Patricio Swayze

So after my company started sending people home, a coworker of mine who takes the metro in from cypress left to catch the bus. He got to the NW transit center at 610 and old Katy road and they decided

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Update:

A little dicey here this evening.. a potent storm was moving through N. Gillespie County into northern Blanco and central Llano.  It had golfball-big hail and some midlevel rotation.  This storm has weakened over the last 1/2 hour but will still put a pop in areas of N. Travis and up.

Another really potent cluster was moving more south of the area, towards Wimberley and San Marcos, might skate S. Austin.  This one is also weakening.

However, 1) looks like the line is trying to fill in to close that gap, which means ATX wouldn't escape a line of storms, and 2) the storms have been fighting against dying out, pulsing up and down.  So what the fuck will be near us in 30-60 minutes?  Both a question of geography and strength.  We're not in a severe watch, but that don't mean too much. 

It's possible that storms could form/re-form throughout the evening, at least until a bit after midnight, when we should be clear.  Tomorrow no problem.

So what I do in cases like this when I have no earthly idea, is to tell you what I'd do/am doing.

- I'm going to keep looking at the radar and seeing if these things fill in and re-strengthen over the next hour.
- If they do, I"m gonna get ready to move one of my cars into a nearby parking garage and wait it out (alas, poor Surler that I am, I have 3 "not hail-worthy" cars and only 2 parking spaces in the garage).  
- If they don't, I ain't doing nuthin'.

More in a few, radar now holds the key to the next hour of my life.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

That's gonna stay south. I posted above somewhere about where the front is going to be tonight, and said the latest runs (earlier today) indicated that it wasn't going to back up as a warm front - at least up to us.   I think that'll all stay down there and poop out eventually.  

However the chances of rain remain pretty good all through tonight and early a.m. tomorrow.

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utee94

utee94 15745

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Wait, are you saying a line of storms might approach Austin from the west, and then suddenly fizzle out and/or break apart before reaching the city? And then, possibly re-form but on the other side of I35? Never has anyone in Austin ever heard of such a thing (*cough* force field *cough*) in all my many years in this city (*cough* force field *cough*)!

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Slightly off-topic but very much related to this "moist" spring we've enjoyed here in Austin.  Obviously, tree roaches getting salty.  We do the lame organic treatment but has usually served us well aside from a few outliers who die horrendously at my hands.  Anyway, what time of spring/summer are y'all seeing as the most effective time to treat with the boric acid drill-holes and so forth?  Am trying to synch it up with the fact that the little one will be crawling in about 6 mos.  I dunno.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Update - Tropical Rain in the Picture - yes, for us, too.

Tuesday-Thursday we're in the zone predicted to get a lot of rain somewhere 'round these parts.  These things are always a clusterfuck to predict because they never behave normally.

I'm not talking about full-force tropical slamming - this system will probably spin up into a weak tropical storm, not much worry there (as of now), but more the high which has been sitting off the Gulf coast is going to slide east and let some of the rain from this thing move N/NW.  Chances are looking pretty good.


Want proof?  American model:  "nah.Maybe half an inch"  Euro model: "2-5 inches, Yankee Industrialist Pig!"  We know who's much more right than the other.

Anyway, I"ll keep atop of it.  Looks like a wet midweek, possibly a really wet Wednesday.   Back as merits.

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Dewey

Dewey 3280

Posted
Posted

System in the Gulf should bring some good rain Wednesday and Thursday, for the coast, not sure about central Texas. Fuck it has been warm and muggy here. Hardly a breeze the last 3 days. Green flag days for the beachers.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Update:

Usually this would be a big zero for CenTex... the system looks like it'll be moved up N then eventually NE to parallel the western Gulf coast.  And that usually means much of nothing for, us, being on the western side of the track.

Of course, it could track farther NW but even if thats not likely, there's one other factor:  there is a small low that's coming in from the west.  That low will tend to pull moisture from the tropical system up to us - lows attract other lows.  So it's still really not clear just how much rain will be pulled up our way.  I still expect us to have widespread if brief showers.  Maybe not enough to mount up, but enough to cool things off and green up the place a bit.

Moar tomorrow.  These fuckers are always an adventure to try and pinpoint, and with this other system in play, the outlook for rain esp. Wed. is still pretty good - right now.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Bullet-Style Quickasfuck Update:

- Mess in the Bay of Campeche is still kinda not forming into any closed tropical system yet.
- Track looks to take it N/NE paralleling Texas Coast then up through Louisana.
- But in the meantime it'll bring rain into mostly E/SE TX.
- However, this low moving in from the west will continue to pull moisture from the Campeche low towards us.
- This is the X factor and why we likely will get some rain particularly on Wednesday.  It's pulling more moisture in from the Campeche system than normal.
- We'll see tomorrow, radar right now is showing generous flow of rain up towards us from Gulf.  Will it make it?  

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Hate said:

Latest potential rainfall estimates from the NWS.

f0c60e2ddfc4f425098a8043efa30ad4.gif

Yeah, Louisiana is going to open the Morganza the Kissing Bandit Spillway for only the 3rd time in its history:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Mississippi-Rivers-Morganza-Spillway-Expected-Open-3rd-Time-History

Edited by clapclapclap
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