2019 Rain Thread

[Trey3216 15,352]

6 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Agreed, but we'd all better start stocking up on Off! before you know what. 

[phdhorn 6,224]

Update:

Not a lot of new stuff, just that most models are picking up on at least 3-4 inches of rain... but that's over the course of 5 or so days.  Still a lot of rain, but spread out.  However, Wednesday afternoon is the greatest chance of drenching rain a la last week.  Always a chance of spotty severe weather with these storms, but likelihood isn't high right now.  Unlike last week when the storm went pretty much right over us, this one is doing a more usual SW→NE movement and the center will be well north of us, and there's not enough real cold weather it's bringing down to cause widespread severe watches (though north of us there will be).

What's actually fueling the rain though is a mix of this with some disturbances that are coming from SW of us riding the El Niño jet NE up through Texas.  Textbook EN rain pattern.  When these little ones get near the big one, the get fueled up and can drop lotsa rain.  This is what's likely to happen tomorrow especially.  The other ones, the big low will have moved too far NE of us to give these later ones as much punch - though they will still bring widespread moderate rain.  That's Thurs-Sat.

4-5 cloudy, humid days with core of rain event tomorrow.  The rest will be lighter, but rain is definitely in the forecast.

Also, we're about getting to the point where the cold fronts aren't going to come through now thru the late summer.  That's good news, because those usually = bad bad weather.  Although of course it can still happen, but the likelihood is less after May 1, and esp. after June 1.  But we have enough moiture training up from Mexico the next 2-3 weeks at least to keep rain around.  So much fucking better than those Aprils, especially around 8-10 years ago, where shit was parched by now and temps were hitting 90° regularly - due to no moisture in the ground.  Off is better than shriveled vegetation and water concerns.

Will let u know later tonight or tomorrow on changes.

[Uncle Nate 2,097]

1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:

No complaints here. Yard looks great, water bill looks great, temperature feels great. Doesn’t get any better than that

Speaking of...here is something I don't get about many of my neighbors.  Ton of rain leading up to this week, we are forecast to have a ton of rain this week...and yet they still have their sprinkler systems going every morning.

What the hell?  It's bermuda grass, for God's sake.  Even if you don't care about wasting your money needlessly, give the grass a chance to come up for air and stretch its roots a bit.  

I have my system off until we go at least a week without rain and get into the 90's.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Uncle Nate

[utee94 15,843]

Having their sprinklers on is what is causing all of the rain.  They're probably washing their cars every day, too.  You should thank them.

 

[phdhorn 6,224]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Having their sprinklers on is what is causing all of the rain.  They're probably washing their cars every day, too.  You should thank them.

 

That reminds me, I'm gonna leave my car out tomorrow so God can wash it (as opposed to pissing on it).

[TXLNGHRN10 341]

Any chance we'll have a clear Saturday? Got a kids bday party sched outside

[phdhorn 6,224]

Well, at this point chances go down during the day, so the later the better(?).  But right now it looks at least better then Wed-Fri.  30% chance of rain early in the day, going to about 20% by dinner time.

My guess is you might have a few anxious moments, but all in all this doesn't seem to be an outdoor "washout" day per current forecast.

[Wally Pryor 5,262]

Any chance we'll have a rainy Saturday? Got a kids soccer game scheduled. 

[SquishMitten 10,425]

Well, at this point chances go down during the day, so the earlier the better(?).  But right now it doesn't look as good as Wed-Fri.  30% chance of rain early in the day, going to about 20% by dinner time.

My guess is you might have a few hopeful moments, but all in all this doesn't seem to be an outdoor "washout" day per current forecast.

[Biff Tannen 45,702]

5 hours ago, miguelito said:

Agreed, but we'd all better start stocking up on Off! before you know what. 

My backyard is a no go zone ever since last week's rain.  I have off and candles and still can't stay out for more than a few minutes.  I'm convinced there's some asshole in my neighborhood with a pool of standing water that feeds these hordes every summer.

[Ten Bears 2,483]

My neighbor has the olds and his backyard grass weeds are knee high.  I just know he has a mosquito farm back there.

[phdhorn 6,224]

53 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Well, at this point chances go down during the day, so the earlier the better(?).  But right now it doesn't look as good as Wed-Fri.  30% chance of rain early in the day, going to about 20% by dinner time.

My guess is you might have a few hopeful moments, but all in all this doesn't seem to be an outdoor "washout" day per current forecast.

ANSWER THE QUESTION!!!

Edited April 30, 2019 by phdhorn

[mulletpelini 5,215]

10 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Any chance we'll have a rainy Saturday? Got a kids soccer game scheduled. 

Good thing you're not dadding back when we played growing up because nothing got canceled for weather.....ever.

[Knoxtnhorn 6,065]

3 hours ago, mulletpelini said:

Good thing you're not dadding back when we played growing up because nothing got canceled for weather.....ever.

Could be worse.  Last week all after school activities were cancelled because of the threat of storms later in the day.  Not because of actual storms, but because of the threat of storms.  Oh, did I mention all activities ... as in indoor activities as well?  Yes, after school tutoring and indoor sports were cancelled because it might storm.  It didn't.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Knoxtnhorn

[atomheartbevo 89,775]

Dark Sky telling me this is going to be a dry day.   

[Orange&White 5,528]

Models shifted everything north.

[Hate 20,130]

Watch your cornholes in North Central and North Texas today.

[bolverk 29,707]

Seems like if you overlayed the various risks on those maps, the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater through Abilene to Fort Worth will be in for a rough day.

[phdhorn 6,224]

Quickie update:
Things have changed a bit last 24:

- Main big low has moved more north than forecast.  It pummeled N. Texas last night, but we're kinda south of it now.  Result:  not looking like line of strong storms coming in midday.  Instead, passing light/moderate spotty showers all day.  Then outflow boundary will come down from the big low tonight and produce that line of storms (not strong).  Still looking for an inch or so over next 24, just more towards midnight, not midday.  

- Weather pattern is now given to this next 2-3 days... more overnight moderate rain, with soupy days, spotty showers all day.  You could be in a downpour, but not widespread.  This is due to those little disturbances lining up and moving NE from Pacific Mexico into TX (I posted on this yesterday, El Nino-caused).

- Right now, weekend is shaping up, at least Saturday... most of this round should be out early, rest of day works out.  Sunday is going to be clearish, nothing different there from previous forecasts.

- After a Sunday break, another El Nino-driven system arrives Mon-Tues.

- Rain %'s:  Today 60, tomorrow 60, Friday 90, Sat. 40→20 by noon, Sun 20, Mon 60 (we'll go from there later).  This of course can and probably will change a bit.

tl;dr:  Not a big in-one-shot dump of rain today, more tonight, next 2-3 days most rain at night, spotty during day, Friday looks to be biggest rain day, outta here by after breakfast Saturday, pause for Sunday, more rain coming in Mon-Tues.

Later as develops.  Thanks, El Niño.

 

[irishtexan 11,522]

19 hours ago, Ten Bears said:

My neighbor has the olds and his backyard grass weeds are knee high.  I just know he has a mosquito farm back there.

why don't you offer to mow his lawn for him?

[InkaUtexas 26,038]

1 minute ago, irishtexan said:

why don't you offer to mow his lawn for him?

Get a goat. Let goat eat. Cabrito for the win. 

[Trey3216 15,352]

19 hours ago, Ten Bears said:

My neighbor has the olds and his backyard grass weeds are knee high.  I just know he has a mosquito farm back there.

http://www.txsmartscape.com/articles/post.php?post=54

[CHEF DIESEL 126]

These rain cycles are absolutely perfect for farmers here in Texas. Not too wet with some good runoff events and some drying for a day or two. Hay production is looking excellent right now with the crop continuing to produce on a large scale through the 4th of July. Cotton and corn are looking excellent too. Prime growing conditions right now.

[Ten Bears 2,483]

6 hours ago, irishtexan said:

why don't you offer to mow his lawn for him?

I did mow it for a while but he turned out to be an unappreciative paranoid asshole.

[swraith 347]

78757 is full of sunshine. Bust on the rain. Try again tonight/tomorrow.

[phdhorn 6,224]

Yeah, as I posted just above, the main low is too far north to get things to develop ("erode the cap") down here today.  Nuthin'.
However, pretty good chance that a line will form and cross over us tomorrow just before morning rush.  But almost all of the weather will be north of ATX.
The same cycle will happen overnight tomorrow night, this time it's much more likely we'll get the rain.  Models aren't backing off.

But yep, the rain has been shifted back to Thurs night more or less for us (with a possible line early Thurs a.m.).  Till then, muggy and soupy, not much in the way of rain.

Friday is shaping up to be pretty rainy, could have some severe.  Moar laterish.

[tucker 238]

Don’t fuck up my flights for Thursday afternoon

[RPM 26,337]

Holy hell we got hit tonight in north Texas. Watched it on radar from work in DFW and it looked bad. Made it to within 10 miles of the house and the detours started from flooding. Took me 30 minutes to go 5 miles because I had to sift my way through county roads until I found deep water then had to backtrack and try another one. Finally get home and my driveway looks like a sheep after an aggy party. It got fucked pretty hard. Now I gotta get my big tractor running this weekend and try to smooth out what's left of the base material.

[Moby Ric 2,058]

Well that was an interesting morning.  

Driving up to Dallas tomorrow morning, guess I can expect to die on the way?

[Ten Bears 2,483]

3 hours ago, Moby Ric said:

Well that was an interesting morning.  

Driving up to Dallas tomorrow morning, guess I can expect to die on the way?

Yes.  And it might rain too.

[UnivTex34 1,763]

@phdhorn, any updates for this evening? Just went to grab lunch and it is gorgeous out. I have softball at 7:30, so I figure this shit will likely hit right at 7, so I have to drive all the way to the park before it gets cancelled.

[UnivTex34 1,763]

and of course 15 minutes after I post this, stuff starts popping up on radar northwest of us. Sure it's just a tease.

[RPM 26,337]

Screengrab of radar over my area last night.

[UnivTex34 1,763]

21 minutes ago, RPM said:

Screengrab of radar over my area last night.

Just went and pulled that up on radar archive, quite nasty 

[Biff Tannen 45,702]

1 hour ago, UnivTex34 said:

@phdhorn, any updates for this evening? Just went to grab lunch and it is gorgeous out. I have softball at 7:30, so I figure this shit will likely hit right at 7, so I have to drive all the way to the park before it gets cancelled.

Yeah, I've got a game at 7.  I'll get there, have a beer in the parking lot, then the lightning will start and they'll call the game.

[Trey3216 15,352]

Stainvuhl getting lit up right now

Edited May 2, 2019 by Trey3216

[UnivTex34 1,763]

19 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yeah, I've got a game at 7.  I'll get there, have a beer in the parking lot, then the lightning will start and they'll call the game.

You in Austin? Play at Krieg?

[Al_4_ISU 12,475]

It's just light rain every fucking day up here.  Just enough to keep any farm work from getting done and I'm about to lose my damn mind.  We're way behind.  Everyone's way behind.

[gsoda3 3,280]

32 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

You in Austin? Play at Krieg?

we've got a 630 game tonight too.  havins though.

Edited May 2, 2019 by gsoda3

[UnivTex34 1,763]

19 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

we've got a 630 game tonight too.  havins though.

If y'all ever switch nights and need a sub, hit me up Would be hard to get from Krieg to havins on the same night.

[jimmyjazz 46,054]

That blob running from south of San Angelo NE towards Mineral Wells appears to be translating almost due east.  If this continues it would probably clip Austin.  Any chance it builds more to the SW and gets the whole CenTex area tonight?

[RPM 26,337]

2 hours ago, UnivTex34 said:

Just went and pulled that up on radar archive, quite nasty 

Looking at rainfall data we got over 6 inches in an hour. There's still a lot of flooding.

[Trey3216 15,352]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That blob running from south of San Angelo NE towards Mineral Wells appears to be translating almost due east.  If this continues it would probably clip Austin.  Any chance it builds more to the SW and gets the whole CenTex area tonight?

It's starting to back build right now, so that seems like what we're gonna see.  That storm that blew stephenville up earlier has joined and backbuilt with the portion that was running southwest of it earlier.  That portion is now moving ESE and almost SE, so it's strengthening quite a bit right now.  We gon get lit up in Hewitt/Waco/McGregor/China Spring areas right around 4:30.  

[SimonBolivar 10,958]

[phdhorn 6,224]

2 hours ago, UnivTex34 said:

@phdhorn, any updates for this evening? Just went to grab lunch and it is gorgeous out. I have softball at 7:30, so I figure this shit will likely hit right at 7, so I have to drive all the way to the park before it gets cancelled.

Update:
The cap (i.e. layer of warm air aloft that keeps vertical convection down) holding our storms/rain back has finally started to erode.  This has kept storms from forming in South Central Texas.  A line of strong storms has formed from about Sonora northwest to just south of Mineral Wells, moving SE.  A huge chunk of Texas west of us is under a severe TS watch... the watch doesn't extend (yet) into Travis (Blano is the easternmost right now) but I expect it to be extended to us.

Depending on how much cloud cover (i.e. lack of daytime heating) is under this complex will tell how long it lasts, and how severe it will be.  Severe TS watch is in effect for Hill Country but not Travis/Willie/Hays, etc.  However I expect the watch to be extended east later.

We have a small disturbance I wrote about moving NE, hitting a weak cold front that's exactly where the line has formed (NE from Sonora up through just south of Mineral Wells).  This line is moving and has some severe pockets.

Yeah, yeah, whatever... but what about us?  

Well, I do expect this line to hold together and get to us between 5-7 p.m.  It could slow up but my ETA is about 7-8 for Austin Metro.  Best I can do right now looking at the radar.  Some formation could happen in front of this line, getting here earlier, but I don't see anything right now.

So forecast is:  today storms arriving before sunset, some could be strong (hail, winds, maybe a small tornado spins up here/there).  Line will take about 2 hours to pass and clear. Tonight storms taper off, but a good chance of milder but prolonged light/moderate rain through sunrise.  Friday like today - not much rain all day, then round 2 happens.  Friday evening/night Act II as another Niño-caused disturbance comes in, boils up under daytime heat, and moves over us again.  Peak about the same time if not later Friday night (later evening).  

Another round coming in looks like after the weekend.  We're definitely in one of the strongest El Niño influenced springs in at least 30 years.  Next 2-3 weeks will have this strong Pacific Southern Jet streaming moisture into Texas, meaning fewer all-sunny days, good chance for these little lows to keep training over us, and... rain.  May could be a double-digit month.  Forecast looks like this though at least mid-May, and our rainiest time of the entire year is always the last half of May anyway, so we'll see.

More later, because this is kind of an active period calling for it.

[jimmyjazz 46,054]

Looks like I picked a bad year to stop paying for flood insurance.

[crash_davis 23,114]

Memorial Day weekend is usually a good weekend for Mother Nature to screw with everyone.  With all the Highland lakes being at or near capacity, I hope we don't have other major flooding events.

[gsoda3 3,280]

if you could hold the rain off in austin til after 8 tonight that'd be mucho appreciated kthx

[phdhorn 6,224]

Not unexpected, some light/moderate showers filling in just in front of the line of showers, could pick up before this thing gets here.  Sorry,  it's unpossible to say whether you guys get rained out.  I guess my supreme scientific training for this situation (i.e. before the storms get here) is: look at the sky -  if it get dark and rain starts to fall, it'll rain.  If not, it won't.

[Brisketexan 105,210]

15 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Not unexpected, some light/moderate showers filling in just in front of the line of showers, could pick up before this thing gets here.  Sorry,  it's unpossible to say whether you guys get rained out.  I guess my supreme scientific training for this situation (i.e. before the storms get here) is: look at the sky -  if it get dark and rain starts to fall, it'll rain.  If not, it won't.

You ain't no Frankie....

You ain't no Frankie at all.