2019 Rain Thread

[phdhorn 6224]

A little disturbance moved up SE of Austin, daytime heating brought a strong little storm up thru Bastrop county. Built west back toward Austin.  However, sun going down should end most of that type of rain for tonight.

Wednesday and Friday still look like the big rain days, more tomorrow morning when I get up. Models are still persistently forecasting lots of rain.

Edited May 7, 2019 by phdhorn

[SimonBolivar 10910]

1 minute ago, phdhorn said:

A little disturbance moved up SE of Austin, daytime heating brought a strong little storm up thru Bastrop county. Built west back toward Austin.  However, sun going down should end most of that type of rain for tonight.

Wednesday and Friday still look like the big rain days, more tomorrow morning when I get up. Models are still persistently forecasting lots of rain.

Are we looking at some of this that's happening in the panhandle tomorrow or will it be less severe?

[phdhorn 6224]

Well what they usually do is act up pretty strongly out west and settle down more toward our neck of the woods.  But I think there's a good chance for spotty severe weather here like last week, not as widespread is in the panhandle. The further north you go from Austin, the more likely strong storms.

Like last week, the peak of it tomorrow should be between lunch and sunset.

[austingirl 2184]

Crazy downpour in Milwood. I've got one dog barking to be let outside, the dipshit, and the other one (5-month-old puppy) freaking at every boom of thunder.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Have had 13+ inches at my house in Sugar Land today, 12 of that since just 3:00 PM. Last time I saw this much rain this fast was TS Allison. 

 

 

 

[Deej 76524]

14 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Have had 13+ inches at my house in Sugar Land today,

 

Sorry for partying.

[TexasMan 10785]

I was working in Richmond/Greatwood earlier today. It was dark at 3 pm, and high waters fast. I see now on ABC 13 that it's now flooding in Greatwood. WTF and this thing doesn't seem like it wants to stop. 

[Post Oak 20182]

42 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Why 6 and Bosque

It lasted a few minutes then poof and it was gone

 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

7 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

I was working in Richmond/Greatwood earlier today. It was dark at 3 pm, and high waters fast. I see now on ABC 13 that it's now flooding in Greatwood. WTF and this thing doesn't seem like it wants to stop. 

I'm actually in Greatwood. Water was halfway up in the yards on my street. 

Ms CL is stranded at the entrance and just abandoned her car in a high parking lot and is walking home. I can't go get her because the water in the street is still too deep. 

Annnnnd, now it's raining again. 

[Deej 76524]

10 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

It lasted a few minutes then poof and it was gone

 

 

[TexasMan 10785]

7 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

I'm actually in Greatwood. Water was halfway up in the yards on my street. 

Ms CL is stranded at the entrance and just abandoned her car in a high parking lot and is walking home. I can't go get her because the water in the street is still too deep. 

Annnnnd, now it's raining again. 

 

[clapclapclap 9000]

Yeah, 14"+ radar estimates in both Greatwood and north Kingwood/Porter.

 

[happyfunball 481]

Wet in 78751 (central Austin) with continual rain for the past hour.

[boknowstecmo 216]

More rain incoming for Austin, FFW issued. 

[Deej 76524]

Bring it on!

[UnivTex34 1763]

2.5 inches in 45 minutes in 78748

[Deej 76524]

Second wave just hit the 53.

[Steel Shank 9409]

The 39 is long, lean and not top far in between.

[Enfield 109]

Pissing in 03

[phdhorn 6224]

Looks like enough sun came out today to heat things up and cause these to pop up.  They should die down here within the hour, but some pretty heavy rain falling.

Then a break until tomorrow early afternoon...

Here we go.. again... 

Rain in the forecast at least through a week from today... not every day, all day, but yep, this is already shaping up to be a record May.  And setting a record in May is pretty damn hard to do in these parts.  We should get double digits easily... 2-week projection is same pattern.

One thing's for sure... I've enjoyed the cooler temps all May.. (nojinx)... last time we didn't hit 90 before now is 2007, and before that it was at least 20 years.

Always look on the bright side of life....

[Radical Larry 28528]

[Goofyboy 3194]

30 minutes ago, all major roads in Sugar Land were impassable and more rain is rolling through.

[gmr548 16481]

78759 fluctuating between heavy and not so heavy rain over the past three hours or so. Tried to beat it home and get the dog out but couldn't. He's going ape shit now. Hope you folks in the Houston area stay dry. 

[TexArcher 37506]

Yeah, it stopped almost completely in 78759 for at least an hour, but now it's dumping again.

[atomheartbevo 89395]

Earlier this afternoon, the Fear the Walking Dead Film crew was busting ass and doing a lot of filming over on Shoal Creek near 35th  - lots of walkers, blanks being fired, had the MRAP out, etc.  Took the kids over to watch right before the shit hit the fan.   All of the sudden, they stopped or finished filming, the walkers started headed for the shuttles, and all of these trucks and workers just started swarming the place and picking up all of the equipment.  Within 45 minutes, we got The Big One.  

I’m betting they read phdhorn’s forecast.  

[Trey3216 15325]

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Earlier this afternoon, the Fear the Walking Dead Film crew was busting ass and doing a lot of filming over on Shoal Creek near 35th  - lots of walkers, blanks being fired, had the MRAP out, etc.  Took the kids over to watch right before the shit hit the fan.   All of the sudden, they stopped or finished filming, the walkers started headed for the shuttles, and all of these trucks and workers just started swarming the place and picking up all of the equipment.  Within 45 minutes, we got The Big One.  

I’m betting they read phdhorn’s forecast.  

Frankie has that effect on his followers 

[irishtexan 11445]

We got absolutely hammered in 78745. My son’s daycare down the street is flooded and they cancelled classes tomorrow. Our street was a river. We also got some pretty good sized hail for a moment.

[RPM 26208]

About to get hammered. Sounds like an artillery barrage approaching.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Finished with 15.5" total once it finally stopped raining just before midnight. Water is all entirely gone now and not a single house flooded in Greatwood. Stormwater engineering at its finest. 

Drove around for a little bit this morning in the neighborhood. Lots of cars abandoned on the medians and other high spots. Several trees down. But no more water. 

[Post Oak 20182]

Real good light show over Waco now. 

[Trey3216 15325]

3 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Real good light show over Waco now. 

Yep.  Dog is pissed. 

[hookemATL 11602]

10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  Dog is pissed. 

It’s actually spelled G-o-d

[phdhorn 6224]

Morning update:
Shit is now forming west of us.  Today the atmosphere is so charged and there's so much to work with that anything that pops up is going to have drenching rains and in many of 'em, pretty good wind/electric/some hail here/there.

Big storm west of us will move NE and miss us to the west.  But this entire line is sweeping toward ATX, should be here in all its glory by lunch time.  

How much heavy rain depends upon how much they reform/train.  But again with the ground sopped, anything is gonna run off and potentially flood.

Zero hours about noon→7 p.m.  Good chance of isolated severe cells, some of these might spin, maybe 1-2 small tornadoes touching down.

Entire complex moves out by dinner, we get a 24 hour break more or less (light rain could fall in between).

Thursday afternoon/evening, a cold front coming in behind the main low (these have been smaller disturbances moving ahead of it), will provide enough cold/warm contrast and lift to produce another round of isolated severe.  Most of the severe shit will be off by Friday mid-day but rain/storms remain in the forecast into next week.  The only good day in all of this (< 10% rain) will be Yo'momma's Day.  Enjoy the time with mom outdoors... after Sunday rain still 50% each day, will probably go higher as shit becomes clear.

May is just possibly maybe shaping up to be the wettest month ever in Austin.  All-time record (I believe) is June 1973 with 11.57".  It's rained > 10" in a month about six times in the last 50 years.  We're already at about 7.5" and it's only fuckin' May 8, with lots of rain forecast.  Never know of course, but we could tie the mofo by Friday, if not shatter it by Memorial Day.

Edited May 8, 2019 by phdhorn

[Macanudo 12925]

On my drive home last night, the TXDOT sign right before 1960 on 59 showed the drive time to Sorters Rd was 72 minutes.   Its normally between 5 and 6 minutes.  I got home around 8 after waiting it out and backtracking to the Lake Houston way in.

Areas of Kingwood that didn't even flood during Harvey had to be evacuated.   Coupled with the near tornado that touched down near Kingwood High School on Friday there's a general "WTF IS GOING ON" feeling up here. 

There are grade schoolers who spent the night at the school in Cleveland last night.   That had to suck for them, their parents and the teachers.

 

[Post Oak 20182]

18 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Morning update:
Shit is now forming west of us.  Today the atmosphere is so charged and there's so much to work with that anything that pops up is going to have drenching rains and in many of 'em, pretty good wind/electric/some hail here/there.

Big storm west of us will move NE and miss us to the west.  But this entire line is sweeping toward ATX, should be here in all its glory by lunch time.  

How much heavy rain depends upon how much they reform/train.  But again with the ground sopped, anything is gonna run off and potentially flood.

Zero hours about noon→7 p.m.  Good chance of isolated severe cells, some of these might spin, maybe 1-2 small tornadoes touching down.

Entire complex moves out by dinner, we get a 24 hour break more or less (light rain could fall in between).

Thursday afternoon/evening, a cold front coming in behind the main low (these have been smaller disturbances moving ahead of it), will provide enough cold/warm contrast and lift to produce another round of isolated severe.  Most of the severe shit will be off by Friday mid-day but rain/storms remain in the forecast into next week.  The only good day in all of this (< 10% rain) will be Yo'momma's Day.  Enjoy the time with mom outdoors... after Sunday rain still 50% each day, will probably go higher as shit becomes clear.

May is just possibly maybe shaping up to be the wettest month ever in Austin.  All-time record (I believe) is June 1973 with 11.57".  It's rained > 10" in a month about six times in the last 50 years.  We're already at about 7.5" and it's only fuckin' May 8, with lots of rain forecast.  Never know of course, but we could tie the mofo by Friday, if not shatter it by Memorial Day.

How can you tell the atmosphere is charged?  Is it just a saying or something you can measure?  I would think it has something to do with heat but maybe not.  

Is it something none phdhorn weather degenerates like myself can feel or look for?thanks 

[Armybrat 40710]

Avatar checks out

[Rip76 4912]

That was a long Fing night.

[phdhorn 6224]

Just now, Post Oak said:

How can you tell the atmosphere is charged?  Is it just a saying or something you can measure?  I would think it has something to do with heat but maybe not.  

Is it something none phdhorn weather degenerates like myself can feel or look for?thanks 

Well, a good analogy is sex.  I realize some people here have never had it, at least with someone else, but it's okay, the same applies to your right hand.  

When you have sex, all the enzymes/hormones (I'll make her moan, you betcha), blood flow, and all them thar ingredient combine for the Moment of Paradisical Pleasure.  But after you've uh, "stormed", your body reaches a state of equilibrium, and unless you're from Havana or a stockholder in certain pills, needs a bit of time to recharge and get all the ingredients ready to go again.

Same here... what makes rain rain is instability.  What makes instability, to put it really, really simply (leaving out a lot of factors like barometric pressure, mid-level atmosphere dynamics, Jet stream effect, Coriolis effect, etc.) is warm vs. cold and dry vs. moist air.  When either of these 2 agents meet up, it produces turbulence which allows condensation to form in the atmosphere.  When condensation forms, the process also generates wind and electricity in a lot of instances.  This ramps up until the clouds can't hold it any more and it storms/rains (why some systems are less violent and longer lasting, say 2-3 days is a kind of complex matter but the principle is the same).

So when you've had rain, from a thunderstorm to a longer milder "rainy day", eventually the atmosphere gets mixed up nicely and stabilizes - that is to say, all the warm/dry/cold/wet has been mixed up and the conditions up through the different levels of the atmosphere are at least for the moment, mixed and blended.  However eventually the atmosphere de-stabilizes again (cold likes to head down and warm up) and if there's something to help trigger another round (i.e. conditions that will help force cold into warm, wet into dry, etc.) you get another round.

If you keep getting these little disturbances putting through, the atmosphere will usually stabilize for say 10-12 hours, but eventually the sun and heat on the ground will cause it to naturally destabilize again.  How hard and where rain falls usually depends on the degree of instability and amounts of heat/cold that are interfacing.

Nothing means a shit without graphics, so here's a graphic and link to the page, which also kind of 'splains it in 101 terms (but of course in real life there are SKILLIONS of things that all add in to create an unstable atmosphere, and even pros don't understand all of 'em fully).

http://weatherstreet.com/weatherquestions/What_is_an_unstable_air_mass.htm

[miguelito 11211]

I've always liked the word "adiabatic."  I never understood it, but it sounds cool.

[LonghornJones 835]

Mine is frontogenesis.

[Chet Steadman 940]

53 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Morning update:
Shit is now forming west of us.  Today the atmosphere is so charged and there's so much to work with that anything that pops up is going to have drenching rains and in many of 'em, pretty good wind/electric/some hail here/there.

Big storm west of us will move NE and miss us to the west.  But this entire line is sweeping toward ATX, should be here in all its glory by lunch time.  

How much heavy rain depends upon how much they reform/train.  But again with the ground sopped, anything is gonna run off and potentially flood.

Zero hours about noon→7 p.m.  Good chance of isolated severe cells, some of these might spin, maybe 1-2 small tornadoes touching down.

Entire complex moves out by dinner, we get a 24 hour break more or less (light rain could fall in between).

Thursday afternoon/evening, a cold front coming in behind the main low (these have been smaller disturbances moving ahead of it), will provide enough cold/warm contrast and lift to produce another round of isolated severe.  Most of the severe shit will be off by Friday mid-day but rain/storms remain in the forecast into next week.  The only good day in all of this (< 10% rain) will be Yo'momma's Day.  Enjoy the time with mom outdoors... after Sunday rain still 50% each day, will probably go higher as shit becomes clear.

May is just possibly maybe shaping up to be the wettest month ever in Austin.  All-time record (I believe) is June 1973 with 11.57".  It's rained > 10" in a month about six times in the last 50 years.  We're already at about 7.5" and it's only fuckin' May 8, with lots of rain forecast.  Never know of course, but we could tie the mofo by Friday, if not shatter it by Memorial Day.

Hard to believe after all the Memorial Day floods we’ve had over the years the record wettest month is a June and it’s only 11.5”.  Didn’t the flood of 2015/16 have something like 8” in 12 hours (twss)?

Regardless, I’m fully expecting for it to rain every day this month including M.D. yet by the second week of June posters on here will be complaining about some phantom forcefield when a storm dissipates 40 miles west of Austin.  

[pearlandhorn 3269]

I think I had about 5 inches of rain or so at my house from 2 PM to around 10 PM last night in Pearland.  On the way to the gym this morning, saw that our detention pond was about half full.  Hard to believe that some of these places in the Houston area that didn't flood in Harvey flooded yesterday.

[South Austin 52105]

28 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

 yet by the second week of June posters on here will be complaining about some phantom forcefield when a storm dissipates 40 miles west of Austin.  

That and the mosquitos.

[phdhorn 6224]

30 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Hard to believe after all the Memorial Day floods we’ve had over the years the record wettest month is a June and it’s only 11.5”.  Didn’t the flood of 2015/16 have something like 8” in 12 hours (twss)?

Well of course, citing records is always a little sketchy because the records are recorded in one or two spots for the official totals.

Of course in Austin's case, it's Camp Mabry and the airport.  

The official May total for May of 1981 is 7.89". That's what Mabry recorded.  did it rain a lot more in other nearby locations? No doubt about it.  Would this also apply to a lot of other rain records that Austin has? Absolutely.

We all know that if Mabry records 5" of rain, somewhere in Northwest Hills could have 10". But you go with the official totals.  

in any event, if this month keeps up, it won't matter where the rain was recorded, everybody will have a good 12"to 15" possibly.

[phdhorn 6224]

Radar pretty much shows you what's coming. Looks like the bulk of it is a little north of Austin, but of course it can back build south.  After this line passes, if we're not underwater, we'll get a break

ETA about 11 to noon.

Edited May 8, 2019 by phdhorn

[TenaciousTgarden 14]

neighbor's tree fell last night:

dammit, why can't i insert the images?

Edited May 8, 2019 by TenaciousTgarden
figured it out

[Not that Bob 734]

So, when they say "at the airport" which airport are they talking about. I would imagine the rain totals are somewhat different between the "new" Bergstrom Airport vs. the "old" Muller Airport. Seems like that would skew record reports. Also, it seems like 1929 has lots of "records." Where were measurements taken in 1929?

[Post Oak 20182]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Well, a good analogy is sex.  I realize some people here have never had it, at least with someone else, but it's okay, the same applies to your right hand.  

When you have sex, all the enzymes/hormones (I'll make her moan, you betcha), blood flow, and all them thar ingredient combine for the Moment of Paradisical Pleasure.  But after you've uh, "stormed", your body reaches a state of equilibrium, and unless you're from Havana or a stockholder in certain pills, needs a bit of time to recharge and get all the ingredients ready to go again.

Same here... what makes rain rain is instability.  What makes instability, to put it really, really simply (leaving out a lot of factors like barometric pressure, mid-level atmosphere dynamics, Jet stream effect, Coriolis effect, etc.) is warm vs. cold and dry vs. moist air.  When either of these 2 agents meet up, it produces turbulence which allows condensation to form in the atmosphere.  When condensation forms, the process also generates wind and electricity in a lot of instances.  This ramps up until the clouds can't hold it any more and it storms/rains (why some systems are less violent and longer lasting, say 2-3 days is a kind of complex matter but the principle is the same).

So when you've had rain, from a thunderstorm to a longer milder "rainy day", eventually the atmosphere gets mixed up nicely and stabilizes - that is to say, all the warm/dry/cold/wet has been mixed up and the conditions up through the different levels of the atmosphere are at least for the moment, mixed and blended.  However eventually the atmosphere de-stabilizes again (cold likes to head down and warm up) and if there's something to help trigger another round (i.e. conditions that will help force cold into warm, wet into dry, etc.) you get another round.

If you keep getting these little disturbances putting through, the atmosphere will usually stabilize for say 10-12 hours, but eventually the sun and heat on the ground will cause it to naturally destabilize again.  How hard and where rain falls usually depends on the degree of instability and amounts of heat/cold that are interfacing.

Nothing means a shit without graphics, so here's a graphic and link to the page, which also kind of 'splains it in 101 terms (but of course in real life there are SKILLIONS of things that all add in to create an unstable atmosphere, and even pros don't understand all of 'em fully).

http://weatherstreet.com/weatherquestions/What_is_an_unstable_air_mass.htm

Thanks

[phdhorn 6224]

15 minutes ago, Not that Bob said:

So, when they say "at the airport" which airport are they talking about. I would imagine the rain totals are somewhat different between the "new" Bergstrom Airport vs. the "old" Muller Airport. Seems like that would skew record reports. Also, it seems like 1929 has lots of "records."

I don't remember exactly when ABIA started keeping records (or even if they were kept by the old AFB) but yeah, you can get different outcomes.   I know Mueller used to keep records, so I guess they went with these until ABIA started up.  I have to look all that up again.

But again, I don't think it's really skewing much.  I think everybody understands that when you look up Austin temps or precip, you're getting it only for that spot, and it doesn't represent the entire area.  So really, it doesn't matter all that much... plus Mabry and (old) Mueller are so close that they probably are 95% similar in historical readings.

Quote

Where were measurements taken in 1929?

I believe the Littlefield Building (U.S. Weather Bureau)

https://www.weather.gov/ilx/nws-wb-history

[HiggyBaby 2513]

Well, a good analogy is sex.  I realize some people here have never had it, at least with someone else, but it's okay, the same applies to your right hand.  

When you have sex, all the enzymes/hormones (I'll make her moan, you betcha), blood flow, and all them thar ingredient combine for the Moment of Paradisical Pleasure.  But after you've uh, "stormed", your body reaches a state of equilibrium, and unless you're from Havana or a stockholder in certain pills, needs a bit of time to recharge and get all the ingredients ready to go again.