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2019 Rain Thread

Biff Tannen

By Biff Tannen
in Daily Texan

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Deej

Deej 77899

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, zork said:

what about inks lake state park area this weekend?  boy scouts are camping there, my son's first camping without dad, and going caving on sunday?  rain I'm not worried about but Frankie talking about hail, big winds, tornado.  is Frankie full of shit @phdhorn?

I'm guessing they've closed the floodgate they had open on Buchanan, so you have that going for you. If it rains enough, they may reopen it.

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phdhorn
phdhorn

Figured I'd post this here, it's where you'd look for me. First, thanks very much for the concern (I had no idea), it's appreciated.  I mean, really?  Wow, that's been surprising. Second, I'm fi

DonnyKerabatsos
DonnyKerabatsos

is the excessive rain this year being triggered from the ash rising to the atmosphere from the concentration camps on our border?  Like volcanoes creating storms when the erupt? 

Patricio Swayze
Patricio Swayze

So after my company started sending people home, a coworker of mine who takes the metro in from cypress left to catch the bus. He got to the NW transit center at 610 and old Katy road and they decided

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted

To answer the preceding questionsrhetoricals, etc. sorta kinda whatever:

1) Frankie is a little animated and dramatic, but that's what allows him to bang an infinite line of 10's and drive those Bugattis.   If you listen to his forecasts, they're pretty broad, though.  So when you talk about the possibility of bad weatter somewhere over a 1,400 square mile area, chances are you'll hit it somewhere.

2) I think Inks Lake, like most of us, will experience one line of storms about mid day, then that's it.  Will that line contain hail/other bad stuff?  Yeah, a very tiny area.  Where is that?  FuckivIknow.  My guess is that he'll be fine, if not a little wet after noon or so, he'll dry out later.

3)  Models agree that the line is definitely going to be there in our northern area.  Whether it forms more south is a coin flip.  A little complex setup, but basically we have a nice warm layer of stable air (called the cap, we've been there, done that).  Sometimes that cap is impossible to puncture (we all knew her in our school history).  That is exactly the problem here - will there be enough energy to push through it and form a potent line of storms?  I think so for sure Williamson, Travis hit/miss, Hays on south, probably not much.  That's what I think.

4) I don't know about doing cub scouts with butt stuff, but it probably peaked when they gave merit badges for it.  Anything for those damn badges and arrow points.

5.  In some iteration of the Holographic Universe theory, Frankie and I are the same person.  In another iteration, we're lovers.  I'm glad I'm conscious of this iteration but I hope I'm happy in the others, that's all that counts.

Tomorrow 8 or so I go to the radar!  THEN I'll have an idea of what/where shitt goe down!

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47348

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2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

5.  In some iteration of the Holographic Universe theory, Frankie and I are the same person.  In another iteration, we're lovers.

It's like "Of Mice & Men" meets "Brokeback Mountain".  But different.  Hey, it's a free country (for now).

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
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Update: I done gone to the radar and it shows that the last 24 hours' forecasts are on... Dry Line scooting through closer to the low (which yep, has almost literally made a left turn at Albuquerque and moved more NE over the Central Plains (OK → KS)... the line dropping from the southern quadrant of the low is right there along the Dry Line, from San Angelo NE up west of the Metroplex into Oklahoma.  That's where the brunt of the worst will be today - San Angelo actually had a tornado in the area this a.m. (apparently out in the rural areas).  The key is to watch the tail  - and if you fucker are good at anything in this life, it's watching some tail.

The "enhanced" area of severe storm risk as moved well east and north of us now (ATX was in it yesterday), showing the NWS now pretty much believes almost all of this rain is going to be north of us.  They threw down a tornado watch for us overnight until mid-afternoon, but I really, really doubt anything much south of Temple area.  So what does all this shit mean?  They've also backed rain totals down to an inch or less, which just about covers/indexes a single line moving through, if that.  In a word:  meh

tl;dr:  not much bad weather here, maybe a blip, midday in northern spots of the region.  Maybe a line of thunderstorms between noon and 4 or so, and that's it.  In fact, it's possible that we don't get much at all in most places.  So, periods of light/moderate passing brief showers up through lunch, then a chance of a brief thunderstorm sweeping by for about 1/2 hour, then slowly clearing out. Your plans today might get wet a little, but the hatches can stay up (not battened down).  If any hail sneaks into this for us, it would be local and small - i.e. most of us nah.  In essence, a soupy, humid late May Saturday, with some storms going through some of us after lunch, then lingering light spotty rain.  That's about it, not much.

Trivial bullshit:  Had (I believe) our first 90° day this year yesterday at both Austin official weather sites) and this week looks to be the first stretch of post 85° weather all year.  I've had my A/C off until last night (maybe a record for me).  I think it'll be on all summer (but there's a big however here... ) and the next 10 days or so I think we'll bust 90° for a few running days.  But that's not such a huge deal, the normal high right now is 88°-89°.  We've been under it almost all spring.

The "however" (from preceding paragraph).. NCC (Climate Center) has forecast us to have a "wetter than normal" and "temperature normal with tend towards cooler than normal" summer.  1) These guys are almost never wrong, and 2) first time we've had this forecast since 2007, and all those "drought" years.  It's kind of a big deal that the summer is NOT likely to be "one of the all-time top ___ warmest."  Now this doesn't mean that every day is going to be 85° with a light Caribbean breeze - after all this is fucking Texas where Satan leaves in the summer for cooler climates, but these types of summers if true to forecast keep temps at or under 100° (not more)  most of the summer... now 97° might not exactly feel way different than 101° but day after day after day of 100+ heat pounding our asses, well it makes a difference.  El Niño is supposed to linger on (wet, cool) and the ground already has enough moisture in it to keep temps down (scoreboard!  May's temps are WELL under average so far).  So we'll see.

But tha's fookin' good news.

Not (back) later unless something brews up near us that's kinda nasty.  Enjoy your wettish day.  Sunday will be sunny and dry, like the start of the week.  No significant rain for most of the week at this point.  Buye!

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5573

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1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Might have been.  We had some pretty heavy June/July flooding that year too, as I recall.

 

 

I'm pretty sure that was the year that on Memorial day then lake was flooded so some of us tied our boats together while on trailers and sat and drank for a few hours.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47348

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3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

The "however" (from preceding paragraph).. NCC (Climate Center) has forecast us to have a "wetter than normal" and "temperature normal with tend towards cooler than normal" summer. 

Welp, so much for global warming.  </somebody's Dad>

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utee94

utee94 16091

Posted
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4 hours ago, Orange&White said:

I'm pretty sure that was the year that on Memorial day then lake was flooded so some of us tied our boats together while on trailers and sat and drank for a few hours.

We've done that, too!

Also, one time just sat in my friend's ski boat parked in his carport in Allandale during one of those gazillion Memorial Day downpours.  Good times.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

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Mini Update:
Yup, as someone here said, :), the line met up with some moist air west of us, and built south as far as Kerrville.  I expect this line to hold up thru Austin over the next 2 hours.  Not a long event, as the line is pretty thin in our part, but it's got some heavy rain and winds - nothing severe for now.  If it keeps up like this, expect it to get here on either side of 5 p.m. (closer to 6), do its thing, and leave.

Tornado watch in effect thru 8 p.m. but if the line stays a line (and not broken cells) like it is, nah.  Small brief hail is always possible with a few points in this line, I'd say20% chance, meaning about a 5% chance over you.  Meh.

Dass' it.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15454

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, utee94 said:

We've done that, too!

Also, one time just sat in my friend's ski boat parked in his carport in Allandale during one of those gazillion Memorial Day downpours.  Good times.

Unless they get swept up in a nader, then they’re not in Kansas or Oklahoma anymore 

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hornian

hornian 5299

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Ahh 2007. The greenbelt was full and hipsters hadn't fully inundated Austin yet. Twas a good time to drink beer and swim. 

Oh they were here. We just didn’t call them hipsters yet. I went to law school with a ton of them. 

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted
On 5/17/2019 at 8:16 PM, phdhorn said:

To answer the preceding questionsrhetoricals, etc. sorta kinda whatever:

1) Frankie is a little animated and dramatic, but that's what allows him to bang an infinite line of 10's and drive those Bugattis.   If you listen to his forecasts, they're pretty broad, though.  So when you talk about the possibility of bad weatter somewhere over a 1,400 square mile area, chances are you'll hit it somewhere.

2) I think Inks Lake, like most of us, will experience one line of storms about mid day, then that's it.  Will that line contain hail/other bad stuff?  Yeah, a very tiny area.  Where is that?  FuckivIknow.  My guess is that he'll be fine, if not a little wet after noon or so, he'll dry out later.

3)  Models agree that the line is definitely going to be there in our northern area.  Whether it forms more south is a coin flip.  A little complex setup, but basically we have a nice warm layer of stable air (called the cap, we've been there, done that).  Sometimes that cap is impossible to puncture (we all knew her in our school history).  That is exactly the problem here - will there be enough energy to push through it and form a potent line of storms?  I think so for sure Williamson, Travis hit/miss, Hays on south, probably not much.  That's what I think.

4) I don't know about doing cub scouts with butt stuff, but it probably peaked when they gave merit badges for it.  Anything for those damn badges and arrow points.

5.  In some iteration of the Holographic Universe theory, Frankie and I are the same person.  In another iteration, we're lovers.  I'm glad I'm conscious of this iteration but I hope I'm happy in the others, that's all that counts.

Tomorrow 8 or so I go to the radar!  THEN I'll have an idea of what/where shitt goe down!

thanks.  looks like they got rained on some but otherwise ok.  caving got them muddy but again, no big deal other than fun for that and the whole trip.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47348

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You know how HEB (when it's open) often seems to have the A/C on full blast when it's not really warm enough outside to justify it?  Something about "trying to keep the refrigerated foods from spoiling" or some shit.

Anyway, there's always that first day of summer when it's really gross and humid and hot outside and you step into that oasis of produce and meat and snacks and beer and yoga pants and it's really chill and it feels SO DAMNED GOOD?

That was today.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26911

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You know how HEB (when it's open) often seems to have the A/C on full blast when it's not really warm enough outside to justify it?  Something about "trying to keep the refrigerated foods from spoiling" or some shit.
Anyway, there's always that first day of summer when it's really gross and humid and hot outside and you step into that oasis of produce and meat and snacks and beer and yoga pants and it's really chill and it feels SO DAMNED GOOD?
That was today.

I went to HEB twice yesterday for essentially this reason.
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