2019 Rain Thread

[Hate 20250]

Here is the latest 96 hour Euro weather precipitation forecast.

and here is the NAM.

And here is the GFS

And here is the WRF

 

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by Hate

[NorthLoop 14507]

We ain't getting any of that shit. Mark it. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2313]

Fun little gif of the 12z NAM from Tuesday noon until Wednesday evening. Shit. 

[clapclapclap 9000]

What a great time for the NWS Houston radar to start crashing on and off.  As well as their forecast website, loads about half the time and often takes a couple of minutes when it does.  Good job, good effort.

Edited September 16, 2019 by clapclapclap

[Hate 20250]

Latest 5 day precipitation forecast:

[utee94 16091]

4 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

We ain't getting any of that shit. Mark it. 

Yup.  I'm certain it'll pour in Bee Cave, but not a drop at my house.  

[Pancho 46358]

4 hours ago, utee94 said:

Yup.  I'm certain it'll pour in Bee Cave, but not a drop at my house.  

Sounds like me in Lake Houston. It storms everywhere in Harris county but not here. 

The grass is starting to mimic my skin tone. 😬

[Hate 20250]

Latest Euro.

[Hate 20250]

Here is the latest NAM...

 

[Radical Larry 28825]

That 0.4 for Travis county seems a bit optimistic.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2651]

30 fucking inches of rain?!

[Telegraph_it 3379]

That NAM would F stuff up. Fortunately, I believe these model totals illustrate somewhere in that blob is getting 30” but not the entire area. Still, that means flooding. 

[Trey3216 15452]

34” on the Euro in one spot.   Good God.  That’s damn near some Harvey shit again 

[clapclapclap 9000]

Well crap, just got confirmation that this is going to be bad:

[HenryJames 67443]

[Hate 20250]

Here is the latest from the NWS.

 

And the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Heavy rainfall event and flash flood threat this evening through Thursday for SE TX.

Flash Flood Watch will go into effect at 100pm today along and SE of a line from Wharton to Houston to Cleveland

Mid level low pressure system clearly noted in radar data from Houston and Corpus Christi continues to spin over the NW Gulf of Mexico about 150 miles south of Palacios. Numerous rainbands have formed in the last few hours across the NW Gulf of Mexico from Galveston Bay to over 200 miles off the upper TX coast and are rotating inland as far as Downtown Houston this morning. Brief heavy rainfall is likely with these bands this morning. Overall expect an increase in the frequency of these bands today and some potential for cell training in the Flash Flood Watch area which could produce a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall through this afternoon.

Mid level low pressure system and weak surface low/trough will begin to slowly lift northward into SE TX tonight through Wednesday night with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Best estimate track for this feature is inland over Matagorda/Brazoria Counties and then slowly NNE into Fort Bend and Harris Counties Wednesday and NNE toward Montgomery and San Jacinto Counties on Thursday. Global guidance has shifted ever so slightly eastward overnight with the track of this feature. Heavy rainfall both near the core or center of the low pressure area and within bands on the eastern and southern flank of the system will be likely. This becomes especially true late tonight into Wednesday as the 850mb moisture transport increases along with good low level inflow off the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture values will be extremely high during the period with PWS ranging from 2.35-2.65 inches which will support intense rainfall rates in any deep and sustained convective developments.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-7 inches are expected over much of the area with isolated totals of 10-12 inches. Deep tropical moisture in place will support excessive hourly rainfall rates in deeper convection with rates of 1-3 inches possible. While grounds are dry, rainfall today will start to result in gradual saturation of the soil conditions and as rainfall totals increase over the next 24-36 hours run-off will also increase. Flash flooding will be possible under any areas of sustained training or cell clustering. Some of the higher resolution guidance is showing some indications of banding and potential for cell training late tonight into much of Wednesday over the region.

Hydro:
While watersheds are currently running below base flow, expected rainfall amounts will almost certainly lead to significant run-off once grounds become saturated. Rises on creeks and bayous to bankfull or above will be possible leading to more significant flooding. High short duration rainfall rates will lead to street flooding at times. Think most of Harris County can currently handle 5-6 inches of rainfall before significant bayou and creeks flooding would be a concern. However this greatly depends on the intensity of the rainfall rates and any breaks between the intense rainfall cells. Given the complexities in where any sort of training bands may become established yields little confidence on where any higher totals and larger flood threat would be.

WPC has placed portions of SE TX in a moderate risk for flash flooding today, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Edited September 17, 2019 by Hate

[Js1 87224]

26 minutes ago, Hate said:

Here is the latest from the NWS.

[gmr548 16703]

This thing is pretty much a cinch to completely miss Austin and bring no rain.  That's absolutely gonna happen.  Metaphysical certitude.
How much?  Where?  None, nowhere.  (Looks like Wed-Thur are the peak disappointments).

"FIFY" - Forcefield

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[gecko 1104]

I can see my house on those graphics.  pretty cool

[Trey3216 15452]

3 minutes ago, gecko said:

I can see my house on those graphics.  pretty cool

Is it floating down the river?  

[MissingInAction 25568]

There will be a raid on all open HEBs south of Waco tonight.

[Brisketexan 106981]

50 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

"FIFY" - Forcefield

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

 

 

Yep.  I've watched the forecasts back off more and more with each run.  Walked into the office, and people were talking about how it was finally gonna rain this week.

Me:

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2651]

Lotta rain in Kemah now 

[MissingInAction 25568]

I searched "bodies in trees", and came across this

 

[gecko 1104]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

There will be a raid on all open HEBs south of Waco tonight.

PSA....HEB in The Woodlands Sterling Ridge has ice.  Well, they pretty much have a lot of everything but I thought I would post this anyhow.

[crimsonlonghorn 2313]

I will say this - Ike was the only "real" hurricane that we've had in the recent past and it was bad because the electricity went out for several days.

The flooding from both Allison and Harvey was also bad, no doubt, but there was no need to go hoard gasoline or ice or whatever because the power never went out. 

The wind is going to get a little higher with this thing but I doubt the power is going to go out because the center is already on land, so anyone freaking out for gasoline and ice (and bread and milk) is wasting their time. 

[texasdago 7772]

Unless your neighborhood is flooded and you can't get out which tends to happen with this garbage.  That said, I do think the worst will be east.  Lindner does a good job of explaining.

[Hate 20250]

I made an emergency stop at the liquor store for whiskey and at the grocery store for gumbo fixings. Bring it on Mother Nature!

[Hollywood 412]

Gon Rain in Austin? 

[Updawg 2387]

Negative

[crimsonlonghorn 2313]

Here in Sugar Land 2.5 inches and it is almost done raining. Maybe it fires back up across the city this PM but looking at the models it all appears to be going north and east of Harris County instead. 

[Dewey 3333]

They said today would be more rain, but I didnt believe them. Went to bed thinking it was heading north, still is, but slid a little east.

[Gardner Barnes 1579]

Gon Rain in Austin? 

This has to be some kind of record for driest aug and sept right?

[South Austin 53236]

All I can say is that my life is pretty plain.

[Neonmoon 38130]

Tell your mother to do a rain dance. 

[DaysOff 8215]

Rick Perry save us.

[South Austin 53236]

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Tell your mother to do a rain dance. 

It's piss.

[sidis 10019]

fuck me, is this thing really going to miss austin?  fuuuuck.

[Brisketexan 106981]

On 9/17/2019 at 8:46 AM, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  I've watched the forecasts back off more and more with each run.  Walked into the office, and people were talking about how it was finally gonna rain this week.

Me:

Just quoting myself for emphasis.  Ain't gon rain heah.

[BayouBill 835]

[MissingInAction 25568]

1 hour ago, Gardner Barnes said:

This has to be some kind of record for driest aug and sept right?

Not as far as your mom is concerned, no. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by MissingInAction

[NotActuallyALonghorn 5005]

What about South Austin's mom?

[atomheartbevo 90665]

2 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

What about South Austin's mom?

[atomheartbevo 90665]

3 hours ago, DaysOff said:

Rick Perry save us.

Don't worry, DJ Rick has it covered.

He's gonna do a raindance for us.

Edited September 18, 2019 by atomheartbevo

[Trey3216 15452]

2 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

What about South Austin's mom?

[Hate 20250]

After all of those near misses in the last month, it’s nice to finally be in the bullseye. We’ve only gotten a little over 3 inches of rain out of this tropical storm so far, but things appear to be taking a turn towards the wet...like South Austin’s mom.

[Modessit 5667]

When they said it was coming in near Galveston and Houston I knew we weren't getting shit. Have we ever gotten significant rain from a tropical storm or hurricane that came in that high? I got 15"+ from Harvey but that was from the Corpus landfall, not the Houston one.

[MirrOlure 15302]

Put this in counterclockwise motion and it may as well be a 10 hour loop for the Golden Triangle....all Beaumont streets under water and the whole region is essentially shut down today

[utee94 16091]

Sorry for those folks.

Whilst in Austin, it's never going to rain again.

[Hate 20250]

There are going to be a lot of places in SE Texas that flood today. It’s pouring here in The Woodlands again, but nothing like the places east of here.