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2019 Rain Thread

Biff Tannen

By Biff Tannen
in Daily Texan

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phdhorn
phdhorn

Figured I'd post this here, it's where you'd look for me. First, thanks very much for the concern (I had no idea), it's appreciated.  I mean, really?  Wow, that's been surprising. Second, I'm fi

DonnyKerabatsos
DonnyKerabatsos

is the excessive rain this year being triggered from the ash rising to the atmosphere from the concentration camps on our border?  Like volcanoes creating storms when the erupt? 

Patricio Swayze
Patricio Swayze

So after my company started sending people home, a coworker of mine who takes the metro in from cypress left to catch the bus. He got to the NW transit center at 610 and old Katy road and they decided

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Napoleon

Napoleon 8802

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Yeah, it is amazing, and nothing short of it, that no one was killed.   I know there were / are questions about how much advance warning was given but something went right in that respect. 

Or it was just sheer, unbridled luck. 

BOTH 

The sheer number of olds living in that path is crazy. But there were only the smallest number of apartments in that entire swath and they were on the side of the swath, right behind the decapitated Fire Station 41.

No trailer parks either and miraculously no one upstairs in the decapitated houses. (Downstairs watching the prime time Cowboys game?)

Whatever the reason, it was a perfect storm of circumstances that survived the (perfect) EF-3 storm of destruction. 

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Hate

Hate 20232

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TXLNGHRN10 said:

Any potential for severe weather tomorrow?

As of right now, there is only a "marginal" risk for Central Texas tomorrow.  

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms, some producing marginally severe hail or wind, are
   expected over parts of central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.

   ...Discussion...
   A positive-tilt upper trough will move slowly east across the
   Plains, with a strong cold front surging south into the western and
   central TX during the day. Ahead of the front, mid to upper 60s F
   dewpoints and heating will result in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE over
   central TX and southward toward the Rio Grande Valley.  Midlevel
   winds of 40-50 kt and strong upper-level winds will lengthen
   hodographs, with weakly veering low-level winds with height. This
   should favor cellular activity initially before becoming linear
   along the front. Storm coverage will increase throughout the
   afternoon and evening, but will likely become undercut by cool air
   rather quickly. Therefore, a brief window of time may exist with
   initial activity with hail or locally strong wind gusts before
   storms become elevated. At that time, only a marginal hail threat
   will exist.

   Elsewhere, high pressure will ensure stable conditions over most of
   the reset of the CONUS, the exception being FL where a moist air
   mass and heating may yield isolated afternoon storms under the upper
   ridge.

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

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Bevo Num1

Bevo Num1 1061

Posted
Posted
As of right now, there is only a "marginal" risk for Central Texas tomorrow. 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL  TEXAS...  ...SUMMARY...  Scattered storms, some producing marginally severe hail or wind, are  expected over parts of central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.  ...Discussion...  A positive-tilt upper trough will move slowly east across the  Plains, with a strong cold front surging south into the western and  central TX during the day. Ahead of the front, mid to upper 60s F  dewpoints and heating will result in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE over  central TX and southward toward the Rio Grande Valley.  Midlevel  winds of 40-50 kt and strong upper-level winds will lengthen  hodographs, with weakly veering low-level winds with height. This  should favor cellular activity initially before becoming linear  along the front. Storm coverage will increase throughout the  afternoon and evening, but will likely become undercut by cool air  rather quickly. Therefore, a brief window of time may exist with  initial activity with hail or locally strong wind gusts before  storms become elevated. At that time, only a marginal hail threat  will exist.  Elsewhere, high pressure will ensure stable conditions over most of  the reset of the CONUS, the exception being FL where a moist air  mass and heating may yield isolated afternoon storms under the upper  ridge.

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

Looks like Mexico's brown dick is fucking Texas. /noCR
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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25655

Posted
Posted (edited)

A few things

One Steve McCauley IS the absolute best...you can follow him on Facebook.  He lives in the Combine though...not Heath near Rockwall.  He's a native West Virginian and routinely refers to where he lives as  "the holler"

Also again not a real meteorology guy but I read enough of guys like McCauley to know that in order to truly understand the cap, how strong it is etc etc that they generally have to take measurements with weather balloons.  They do this at routine intervals particularly on days where they feel they need to know but it's not something that is being constantly done hour by hour. So that's why those weather guys can have a good sense that there could be potential weakness in the cap, what temperature it might take to break it etc, but yes even in this day and age with the way those measurements have to be taken there is never anything close to absolute certainty when and where that happens.

Edited by Surly Bevo
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Hate

Hate 20232

Posted
Posted

Here is the latest update from Jeff Lindner:

A powerful storm system will move across the area on Friday brining heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, and much cooler temperatures

Southerly winds will quickly increase this morning and help to transport deep tropical moisture over the weather Gulf of Mexico into the middle and upper TX coast by this afternoon. A rapid increase in cloud cover will be followed by rising rain chances by mid afternoon and then even better chances tonight into Friday morning. A strong cold front over the plains this morning will surge southward and across SE TX rapidly on Friday morning. Frontal timing has sped up some as is usual in these instances with the front blasting off the coast by Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms…some with heavy rainfall…will accompany this front and rain will linger into the afternoon hours on Friday before clouds clear out Friday night.

Rainfall Amounts:
Amounts will averaged 1-2 inches over the region with totals of 2-3 inches around Galveston Bay. Higher amounts are likely to remain offshore. There was more concern yesterday with a slower moving system, but the more progressive nature of this system now will likely keep rainfall amounts in a manageable range. Heavy rainfall may impact the Friday morning commute.

Tides:
Strong southerly winds today and tonight will result in high than normal tides along the coast and a coastal flood advisory is in effect. Tidal flooding will be possible at the lower areas along Bolivar, the west end of Galveston, and in SE Harris County around Shoreacres and the Lynchburg Ferry landing today and tonight.

Winds:
Strong southerly flow of 15-25mph will be common today, but will switch to N at 20-30mph on Friday. Winds will increase even more over the Gulf waters as the cold air strikes the still warm waters and the frontal boundary interacts with an area of disturbed tropical weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Sustained winds of 40-45mph will be possible along and offshore of the mid and lower coast on Friday with gust over 50mph.

Temperatures:
Arrival of the strong front on Friday will end the warmth of today and temperatures will fall from the 70’s before the front into the 60’s behind the front. Friday will be raw with lingering rain, strong N winds, and temperatures in the lower 60’s and upper 50’s. Clearing skies Friday night will allow many areas to fall toward the upper 40’s and sunny skies on Saturday will rebound to near 70 before most areas fall into the 40’s Sunday AM.

Halloween Early Look:
Appears a powerful early season Arctic air mass will be surging down the plains around the middle of next week and arriving into TX around the 30th. Halloween is currently looking very chilly but dry at least at the moment.

 

And from  the Storm Prediction Center in regards to severe weather chances:

Tornado

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

Wind

day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

Hail

day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5563

Posted
Posted

For Central Texas:

 

 

 

 

Good morning South-Central Texas Partners,

 

Updates Since Yesterday:

·  No Major Updates to the Forecast. Re-sending email with refreshed graphics and slight changes to main timing.

Main Timing & Area of Concern:

·  4PM-7PM: Hill Country and portions of Rio Grande

·  6PM-10PM: I-35 Corridor

·  8PM-12AM: East of I-35

Threats & Impacts: 

·  Rainfall:

o 1-3 inches across portions of the Hill Country and along and east of I-35. Locally higher pockets up to 4 inches are possible in this area.

§ Rainfall intensity could lead to isolated flooding concerns through the area

o Around 1/2 inch or less along the Rio Grande

·  Severe: 

o Isolated storms producing hail up to quarter-sized and/or wind gusts up to 60 mph

§ Greatest threat for strong to severe storms near and west of the I-35 corridor

Timing and Overview:

A strong upper level disturbance and cold front will bring good chances for showers and storms to the region this afternoon through early Friday morning. There is a marginal risk of isolated storms becoming severe, mainly this afternoon and evening. In addition, pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Hill Country and along and east of I-35, and rainfall intensities could lead to concerns for flooding in some isolated areas.

 

Much cooler and windy conditions are forecast on Friday. Temperatures in the 40s to low 50s in the morning will only climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s in the afternoon. Some spots could see 25-35 mph wind gusts on Friday.

Confidence:

Rainfall: Moderate

Severe: Low

Additional Information Resources: 

·  NWS Austin / San Antonio Contact Numbers:  830-606-3617

·  NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage:  http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio

Request for Information:  

·  Report flooding and severe weather to us on Twitter using:  @NWSSanAntonio and #ewxspotter

·  Report flooding and severe weather to is by email:  sr-ewx.alert@noaa.gov 

Sincerely,

Nick Hampshire and Aaron Treadway

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Wally Pryor

Wally Pryor 5388

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Hate said:

Only in Texas...snow in the panhandle and a tropical system in the Gulf.

GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

Only in Texas....I've often wondered if we've ever had, simultaneously, freezing temps in the Panhandle and 100+ in the Valley.   Probably not.  But the scenario w/ a nasty front hitting and unseasonable warmth is not that far fetched. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Only in Texas....I've often wondered if we've ever had, simultaneously, freezing temps in the Panhandle and 100+ in the Valley.   Probably not.  But the scenario w/ a nasty front hitting and unseasonable warmth is not that far fetched. 

Well, it's 95 in Rio Grande City and 30 in Amarillo right now.  So more than likely it's happened.  

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11856

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Didn't realize it was that warm down south.  Figured the state was buried under clouds.

Yes, probably has happened. 

Biggest variation I could find:

Quote

On Feb. 10, 1981, the low temperature in Dalhart dipped to -3 degrees. On the same day, more than 860 miles to the south, the high temperature in Brownsville reached a balmy 90 degrees — a difference of 93 degrees between the two cities.

Oh, and fuck living in Amarillo:

Quote

The most extreme temperature range recorded at Amarillo within one calendar day occurred from a Blue Norther' in December 1919.  At noon on Friday, December 12, the temperature was 67 degrees.  By 1 PM the temperature had dropped an astounding 44 degrees to a reading of 23 degrees.  By 7 PM that evening the temperature had bottomed out at 1 degree above zero, a full 66 degrees lower than the high temperature 7 hours earlier.

 

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Modessit

Modessit 5665

Posted
Posted
I got stuck out in it on I35 between Ben White and William Cannon.  It was a monsoon!  Wind was howling and whipping that rain around.  Pretty impressive.  Almost died.
Same. Was trying to get to Southpark Meadows and couldn't see. Cancelled where I was going and tried to head back on the frontage road and hit water over the frontage road between Slaughter and William Cannon. Couldn't even see it before I was in it. Luckily I got thru it. Ended up stopping at the McDs at William Cannon and waiting there for about an hour until it died down.
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Longhorn Al

Longhorn Al 440

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Modessit said:
1 hour ago, Longhorn Al said:
I got stuck out in it on I35 between Ben White and William Cannon.  It was a monsoon!  Wind was howling and whipping that rain around.  Pretty impressive.  Almost died.

Same. Was trying to get to Southpark Meadows and couldn't see. Cancelled where I was going and tried to head back on the frontage road and hit water over the frontage road between Slaughter and William Cannon. Couldn't even see it before I was in it. Luckily I got thru it. Ended up stopping at the McDs at William Cannon and waiting there for about an hour until it died down.

Dude.  I ran over something on the side of the road in that area.  I was southbound on the I35 frontage road just north of Wm Cannon.  It was so dark, I could barely see.  They need some street lights there.  The water was covering the road.  I did my best, but I guess I got too far to the right and ran over something.  Felt like my front right tire got some air and came back down in my lane.  It wasn't a curb.  Had to be something construction-related, like sand bags.  I don't know.  No damage done, but scared the hell out of me.

Edited by Longhorn Al
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futureman

futureman 22664

Posted
Posted
Just now, Longhorn Al said:

Dude.  I ran over something on the side of the road in that area.  I was southbound on the I35 frontage road just north of Wm Cannon.  It was so dark, I could barely see.  They need some street lights there.  The water was covering the road.  I did my best, but I guess I got too far to the right and ran over something.  Felt like my front right tire got some air and came back down in my lane.  It wasn't a curb.  Had to be something construction-related, like sand bags.  I don't know.  No damage done, but scared the hell out of me.

holy shit, man, you think you ran over “sandbags”?  how many starfuckers did you have before getting behind the wheel?

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