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2019 Texas Football Season - "#8 Go Fuck Yourself Bitch"

Xcalibur

By Xcalibur
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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18327

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Almost all of these articles citing likely regression are looking at stats but they are doing so without context. 

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Despite finish No. 9 in the final AP Poll, the Longhorns ranked No. 43 in the country in point differential, and S&P+ gave them an expected win total of 8.3, down 1.7 from their 10 wins. For as productive as Ehlinger was, Texas lost to Maryland and played close games against Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas, the three lowest-efficiency teams in the Big 12.

Be sure to cite point differential but ignore Texas getting out to big leads and then doing a poor job of milking the clock in several games. Up 21 on Tulsa, win by 7. Up 19 on KSU, win by 5. Up 21 on OU, win by 3. Up 13 on Baylor (with backup QB), win by 6. Up 17 on Tech, win by 7. Up 17 on Kansas, win by 7. Up 21 on Georgia, win by 7. In all of those games, the score was closer than the play on the field. It's not like Texas was getting lucky bounces at the end of the games to win these. They dominated. Hopefully, a more experienced and explosive offense will turn more of those games into blowouts. Based on what we have coming back, I think that is more likely than Texas losing these types of games.

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For starters, Texas brings back just 48% of its production last season, which is 121st in the country (as calculated by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly). Altogether, the Longhorns will lose eight of their most productive defenders from last season, in addition to leading receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who accounted for over 33% of Texas’s yards through the air in 2018. It’s not as if there aren’t talented players who will get opportunities in increased roles, but that’s still a lot of production to replace. 

Again, Texas is losing 8 of its most productive defenders. Look how this production is calculated and where he draws his conclusions from:

Quote

Correlation between defensive stats and changes in Defensive S&P+:

On defense, where returning production appears to matter more in general, the correlations are both stronger and more diverse. Since teams use different numbers of defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs, I look at both unit-specific categories and those for defense as a whole.

  • Defensive back tackles correlation: 0.404
  • Defensive back passes defensed correlation: 0.377
  • Overall tackles correlation: 0.325
  • Overall passes defensed correlation: 0.324
  • Defensive back tackles for loss correlation: 0.299
  • Overall tackles for loss correlation: 0.269
  • Linebacker tackles for loss correlation: 0.250
  • Linebacker tackles correlation: 0.250
  • Linebacker passes defensed correlation: 0.228

The two biggest drivers are tackles and passes defensed by DBs. This just in: defenses in the Big 12 play 5-6 DB's on almost every snap, make a lot of tackles and defend a lot of passes. Davis, Boyd and Locke logged a ton of snaps and they are gone so of course that number is going to be high as an overall percentage of the defense. Also both Sterns and Jones missed some time with injuries.

This guy has a ton of SEC teams (hooray playing base defense with four DB's!) at the top of his list for next year. For comparison, 4 out of LSU's top 10 tacklers and (and 2 out of the top 8 ) were DB's, accounting for 148 total tackles (25%). For Texas 6 out of 10 (and 5 out of the top 8 ) of their leading tacklers were DB's and accounted for 351 tackles which is 57% of their total tackles. Apple meet orange. LSU loses its stud linebacker and leading tackler but it is less impactful that Kris (I never met a pump fake I didn't fall for) Boyd and PJ Locke. Okay, sure.

It's going to be astounding in 2020 how much production we return when Brandon Jones is the only member of the secondary to move on. We will be S&P monsters. And sure, the new guys may not be as productive as Boyd, Davis and Locke, but I promise you they are going to log a shitload of tackles because of scheme and competition. Again, there is no context for this: just look at raw data and pull this out of your ass. Ignore how many times any of these guys are targeted as a function of the style of play. Forget how many missed tackles they had. Forget any sort of value over replacement player. Forget injuries. Completely ignore the quality of the future replacements.

I may be wrong and our defensive backfield could be a shitshow next year, but I'm putting all of this into the Will Muschamp "Statistics are for losers" category.

 

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 20019

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Almost all of these articles citing likely regression are looking at stats but they are doing so without context. 

All this S&P crap is getting like the NFL drafting based on measurable. In our case, the stats don't come close to telling the story.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6305

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4 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Almost all of these articles citing likely regression are looking at stats but they are doing so without context. 

Be sure to cite point differential but ignore Texas getting out to big leads and then doing a poor job of milking the clock in several games. Up 21 on Tulsa, win by 7. Up 19 on KSU, win by 5. Up 21 on OU, win by 3. Up 13 on Baylor (with backup QB), win by 6. Up 17 on Tech, win by 7. Up 17 on Kansas, win by 7. Up 21 on Georgia, win by 7. In all of those games, the score was closer than the play on the field. It's not like Texas was getting lucky bounces at the end of the games to win these. They dominated. Hopefully, a more experienced and explosive offense will turn more of those games into blowouts. Based on what we have coming back, I think that is more likely than Texas losing these types of games.

Again, Texas is losing 8 of its most productive defenders. Look how this production is calculated and where he draws his conclusions from:

The two biggest drivers are tackles and passes defensed by DBs. This just in: defenses in the Big 12 play 5-6 DB's on almost every snap, make a lot of tackles and defend a lot of passes. Davis, Boyd and Locke logged a ton of snaps and they are gone so of course that number is going to be high as an overall percentage of the defense. Also both Sterns and Jones missed some time with injuries.

This guy has a ton of SEC teams (hooray playing base defense with four DB's!) at the top of his list for next year. For comparison, 4 out of LSU's top 10 tacklers and (and 2 out of the top 8 ) were DB's, accounting for 148 total tackles (25%). For Texas 6 out of 10 (and 5 out of the top 8 ) of their leading tacklers were DB's and accounted for 351 tackles which is 57% of their total tackles. Apple meet orange. LSU loses its stud linebacker and leading tackler but it is less impactful that Kris (I never met a pump fake I didn't fall for) Boyd and PJ Locke. Okay, sure.

It's going to be astounding in 2020 how much production we return when Brandon Jones is the only member of the secondary to move on. We will be S&P monsters. And sure, the new guys may not be as productive as Boyd, Davis and Locke, but I promise you they are going to log a shitload of tackles because of scheme and competition. Again, there is no context for this: just look at raw data and pull this out of your ass. Ignore how many times any of these guys are targeted as a function of the style of play. Forget how many missed tackles they had. Forget any sort of value over replacement player. Forget injuries. Completely ignore the quality of the future replacements.

I may be wrong and our defensive backfield could be a shitshow next year, but I'm putting all of this into the Will Muschamp "Statistics are for losers" category.

 

S&P is mostly like Body Mass Index - it's useful across a population from an epidemiological standpoint, but doesn't account for context in individual circumstances. 

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mdmost

mdmost 42173

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1 hour ago, USMCHorn said:

So both LSU and OU games at 11am CST?

LSU should be an ABC/ESPN game. Depending on who gets to pick first, that should be choice #1 with Texas OU being #2. If ABC chooses first, they chose LSU and Fox gets Texas OU.

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Goodman

Goodman 3271

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2 hours ago, mdmost said:

LSU should be an ABC/ESPN game. Depending on who gets to pick first, that should be choice #1 with Texas OU being #2. If ABC chooses first, they chose LSU and Fox gets Texas OU.

They have a network draft for games at some point this summer. In the past, Bruce and Stu would discuss Fox games selected on their podcast since Bruce does sideline with Fox.

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Nueces River Rat

Nueces River Rat 5485

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8 hours ago, markstanco said:
10 hours ago, mdmost said:
LSU should be an ABC/ESPN game. Depending on who gets to pick first, that should be choice #1 with Texas OU being #2. If ABC chooses first, they chose LSU and Fox gets Texas OU.

Lsu next year will be a night game, bet on that.

It better be.  Or we will need to start hydrating today.  It will be still fricken hot enough at 7PM.

If I were betting ,  it will be the ABC game on Saturday evening if Game Day is in the house .  Usually it kind of works out that way unless Fox or CBS is carrying the game Game Day visited.

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Nuge

Nuge 1945

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53 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Keep putting in that effort.

 

43 minutes ago, Lerka Lerka said:

Can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning.  

I find that if I go hard friday night I can just push on through and be a loud drunken mess come game time.  Which in my opinion is being the best kind of fan.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48688

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7 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said:

It better be.  Or we will need to start hydrating today.  It will be still fricken hot enough at 7PM.

If I were betting ,  it will be the ABC game on Saturday evening if Game Day is in the house .  Usually it kind of works out that way unless Fox or CBS is carrying the game Game Day visited.

Some predict Clemson vs Aggy gets College GameDay..... not LSU vs Texas.

Sept. 7: "Texas A&M at Clemson — There are two big games this week: A&M-Clemson and LSU at Texas. Since Texas is a Big 12 school, there’s a good chance FOX swoops this game up, while ESPN is guaranteed to have A&M-Clemson on its air. Tie goes to the guaranteed broadcast rights."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Fortunately 247 predicts Austin gets GameDay:

WEEK 2: LSU AT TEXAS

Why this is a good option for GameDay: We have a feeling, at some point next season, the Longhorns will host GameDay for the first time in more than a decade and this seems to be the most likely option featuring a battle of Top 15s (projected). It would be hard to bet against Tom Herman in this spot and the atmosphere in Austin on gameday should be electric. If you're ESPN, you can't pass up this opportunity.  Another game to keep an eye on in Week 2 is Texas A&M's trip to defending national champion Clemson.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Alabama-football-ESPN-College-Gameday-locations-2019-football-season-Nebraska-Georgia-Texas-128950656/

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mdleast

mdleast 8016

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Yeah I would assume that both LSU and us will be higher ranked than the Aggies going into that game and, therefore, the more logical option. On the other hand, their game will feature the defending champions vs (insert SECx3 team) and that’s quite tempting to ESPN/ABC. The SEC attraction/preference in games was pretty evident when a prime time game (last season?) featured Alabama vs some spare when there were more interesting matchups to pick from. Granted, it was a lesser week in terms of those other games but it was obvious that the draw of the highest ranked team/SEC school won out notwithstanding the completion.

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mdleast

mdleast 8016

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10 or 12 does set up pretty favorably for us so I hope/expect us to take advantage.

Also, I’ll say again that I expect at some point we start putting out flashy graphics like above touting the superiority of our graphics over other teams’ graphics.

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BigHorn'13

BigHorn'13 3340

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On 5/14/2019 at 10:16 AM, BigHorn'13 said:

Also the only way LSU vs. Texas isn't at night is if one of us stumbles out of the gate. 

The national media gives fuckall about aggy. BOMC and all that you stupid sips. 

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2019/05/16/texas-am-clemson-set-nationally-televised-230-pm-kickoff-abc-sept-7

It's funny cuz it's true 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 12521

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4 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Not going to happen, of course, but my ideal scenario would have Clemson losing game 1 against Georgia Tech, and coming into Sept. 7th madder 'n a buncha itchy hornets.

My ideal scenario would be A&M plays lights out, their finest game of the entire season, and they lose on a controversial call in overtime.

Then Texas beats LSU on a controversial call in overtime.

Then A&M goes on to finish 7-6 and spends the whole year wallowing in their misery about this one day when the refs screwed them and handed Texas a big win. 

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texifornia

texifornia 55994

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14 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

My ideal scenario would be A&M plays lights out, their finest game of the entire season, and they lose on a controversial call in overtime.

Then Texas beats LSU on a controversial call in overtime.

Then A&M goes on to finish 7-6 and spends the whole year wallowing in their misery about this one day when the refs screwed them and handed Texas a big win. 

Sure but I want to blow the fucking doors off LSU and make the Playoff, but you do you.

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markstanco

markstanco 12424

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Not going to happen, of course, but my ideal scenario would have Clemson losing game 1 against Georgia Tech, and coming into Sept. 7th madder 'n a buncha itchy hornets.
As you mentioned, not going to happen. They are worse than troy, and Clemson is better than Lsu.
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closetojumping

closetojumping 61996

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1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

My ideal scenario would be A&M plays lights out, their finest game of the entire season, and they lose on a controversial call in overtime.

Then Texas beats LSU on a controversial call in overtime.

Then A&M goes on to finish 7-6 and spends the whole year wallowing in their misery about this one day when the refs screwed them and handed Texas a big win. 

What the fuck?  My ideal scenario is to see ATM get publicly buttfucked on national television by Clemson as Jimbo Fisher kicks one of his players in the nuts on the sidelines in a little man fit of psychotic rage. Then Texas goes out and plays its own version of dueling banjos on LSU’s collective ass as a confused Ed Orgeron mistakes the tune for the sign of a good ol’hootenanny and starts dancing the jig on their sideline. 

But yeah, you cheer for a scenario that causes every talking head in the country to ultimately marginalize a Texas victory all season. 

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