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2019 Texas Football Season - "#8 Go Fuck Yourself Bitch"

Xcalibur

By Xcalibur
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No, that's not what I mean at all. Connelly publishes his S&P+ because he thinks it better reflects actual team strengths than final scores. And, on the whole, I agree. He also publishes predictions versus the spread because he wants to show that there is a value in his system with respect to predicting future performance on the field. Therefore it's reasonable to wonder if he intends his preseason projections to predict performance on the field in the upcoming season. I would imagine that he does indeed feel like this is the case.

And so that is a more realistic measuring stick for his projections than his own system's year-end rankings. Otherwise the entire effort is meaningless. Anyone can rank the teams any way they like, and if I say next year San Jose State is going to be the #20 team in the country according to my system and then my system says they're #20 at the end of the year do I get to claim that as proof my system projected the Spartans' team properly? I suppose, but both results are actually evidence that my system is bad.

He feels like that is the case because he believes in-season S&P+ has predictive value and he believes his pre-season projections are reasonably accurate for predicting S&P+ for the following season.  It's not arbitrary because S&P+ itself is not arbitrary rating system.  In your example your pre-season projector was accurate at predicting your system's rating, but since the rating was arbitrary the pre-season projector is obviously as meaningless as your rating system.  As you seem to agree, that's not the case with S&P+.

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Brilliant. Sign letter of intent and transfer to Texas with zero intention of ever playing a game. Sit out year. Transfer back to USC. Sit out year. Play one bad ass season and go pro with almost zero

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3248

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

He feels like that is the case because he believes in-season S&P+ has predictive value and he believes his pre-season projections are reasonably accurate for predicting S&P+ for the following season.  It's not arbitrary because S&P+ itself is not arbitrary rating system.  In your example your pre-season projector was accurate at predicting your system's rating, but since the rating was arbitrary the pre-season projector is obviously as meaningless as your rating system.  As you seem to agree, that's not the case with S&P+.

The ultimate goal is to predict the results on the field, right?  Otherwise it's just a meaningless theoretical exercise.  It has to tie back to reality somewhere.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

The ultimate goal is to predict the results on the field, right?  Otherwise it's just a meaningless theoretical exercise.  It has to tie back to reality somewhere.

As I said in the post you quote, the tieback to reality is the predictive value of in-season S&P+.  The value of pre-season S&P+ projections is dependent upon (1) the ability to accurately predict following season S&P+; and (2) the predictive value of in-season S&P+.  If in-season S&P+ has no predictive value then, of course,  even if you could predict it with 100% certainty those predictions would still be meaningless.  

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3248

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Just now, Fozzz said:

As I said in the post you quote, the tieback to reality is the predictive value of in-season S&P+.  The value of pre-season S&P+ projections is dependent upon (1) the ability to accurately predict following season S&P+; and (2) the predictive value of in-season S&P+.  If in-season S&P+ has no predictive value then, of course,  even if you could predict it with 100% certainty those predictions would still be meaningless.  

But it's not great at predicting individual game outcomes beforehand.  It's slightly better than a coin flip ATS.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

But it's not great at predicting individual game outcomes beforehand.  It's slightly better than a coin flip ATS.

imo, all things considered I think that's pretty good.  For instance, consider how unpredictable TOs are and how much impact they have on individual games.  There's a lot of noise that simply can't be dealt with given the limited tools we are provided.  

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TexasMan

TexasMan 11383

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5. TEXAS LONGHORNS

 

Sam Ehlinger(Photo: Ed Zurga, Getty)

Sam Ehlinger emerged as one of college football’s star quarterbacks in 2018 as he piled up over 4,000 yards of total offense and 41 total touchdowns. Leading receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey won’t be back, but second leading receiver Collin Johnson will be. The Longhorns also get a player in Bru McCoy would could have an immediate impact on the passing game. Replacing Tre Watson may be a challenge, but Keontay Ingram should be able to shoulder the load of being a true No. 1 running back.

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Nope

Nope 3151

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Which player are you guys looking forward to seeing the most next year?

For me it’s Ingram, easily. His vision plus the added physicality (will probably add at least 10 lbs of muscle courtesy of Yancy) is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

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Eggo

Eggo 4026

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42 minutes ago, Nope said:

Which player are you guys looking forward to seeing the most next year?

For me it’s Ingram, easily. His vision plus the added physicality (will probably add at least 10 lbs of muscle courtesy of Yancy) is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Jordan Whittington

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SmokeyTheBear

SmokeyTheBear 5569

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44 minutes ago, Nope said:

Which player are you guys looking forward to seeing the most next year?

For me it’s Ingram, easily. His vision plus the added physicality (will probably add at least 10 lbs of muscle courtesy of Yancy) is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Sterns. He showed out this past year and cant wait to see what he can grow into. Otherwise Roach. I want to see if he can take that final step in being a consistent presence. 

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texifornia

texifornia 58786

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55 minutes ago, Nope said:

Which player are you guys looking forward to seeing the most next year?

For me it’s Ingram, easily. His vision plus the added physicality (will probably add at least 10 lbs of muscle courtesy of Yancy) is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Roach. I think he'll finally fulfill his potential as a full-time DE.

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Machinator

Machinator 32102

Posted
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1 hour ago, Nope said:

Which player are you guys looking forward to seeing the most next year?

For me it’s Ingram, easily. His vision plus the added physicality (will probably add at least 10 lbs of muscle courtesy of Yancy) is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.

Of the returning players: on offense, Ingram, on defense, Roach

Of the newcomers: on offense: Whittington (change this to Bru if he gets the waiver), on defense, Floyd.

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Eggo

Eggo 4026

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

If he could just get back to his freshman year form, it would be a good thing. If he can improve on it, it would be a better thing.

Where have I heard those words before?

 

Spoiler

https://247sports.com/Player/Johnathan-Gray-1017/high-school-14808/

 

Gray has blistering speed and he does not waste any time hitting his top gear. He is a one cut and done type of back. He puts his foot on the ground, makes a cut and then he is gone. He looks lean, muscular and appears to have room to add some more good weight. He is a north and south runner that doesn’t dance in the backfield. Along with having good speed, and size, Gray also has good vision. He is a touchdown machine.

 

Edited by Eggo
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BigHorn'13

BigHorn'13 3480

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1 hour ago, Machinator said:

From left to right: Ossai, Adeoye, Vaughns

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

DzOXYN6VsAER71J.jpg

 

Vaughns is another one I wonder where he'll see time at. I keep thinking the Bbacker position is going the way of dodo (in conference play) but with all the new coaching faces in the conference, that may not be the case. Anyone have an idea on the landscape of Big 12 offenses this season?

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Nope

Nope 3151

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2 hours ago, BigHorn'13 said:

Vaughns is another one I wonder where he'll see time at. I keep thinking the Bbacker position is going the way of dodo (in conference play) but with all the new coaching faces in the conference, that may not be the case. Anyone have an idea on the landscape of Big 12 offenses this season?

He looks like he can still add weight.

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TexasPride10

TexasPride10 597

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13 hours ago, texifornia said:

If Sam stops throwing it a mile over his head every time he's open.

Truth, but let's not forget: this will be Sam's first offseason as the established starting QB. I have no doubt his timing with all of our receivers is going to take a huge leap this year now that he won't be splitting reps with Shane the entire offseason. 

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