2019 Poker run gooder or die thread

[TXSooner518 2439]

As someone who has sold action at a markup many times, I can see both sides of this argument. I'm not super familiar with Johnny Vibes, so I won't comment on him specifically, but will give what I think are factors that should be considered with markup, and use myself in some examples.

A huge factor to consider is that buying action isn't always a strict "financial investment" move.

• The "sweat factor." This would increase based on staking a player that you know, or a famous player. Most of my backers would get more enjoyment out of staking me, because they know me, as compared to a complete stranger of my exact ability. Same with someone having a piece of a Negreanu or Hellmuth.
• Another element is allowing the backer to live vicariously. I live tweet my tourneys, and send email updates. I feel like this gives a bit of extra value-add as compared to being radio silent and then just sending an email saying "We lost" or "We won, how do you want paid?" My guess is Johnny Vibes' backers will get a lot of this. I know Greg Raymer works hard on providing this also.
• The "action factor." Some people just enjoy the action, similar to making a sportsbet that is neutral or even -EV.

Even if you are focusing on the financial side, there is more to consider than just exactly how good the player is. Factors other than the player's exact ROI in the games being staked include:

• The player's financial reliability. Are they a degen who might piss the games away in the pit? Might they skip games that they have sold for? Might they take off with your money? I very rarely play house advantage games (with some exceptions for got damn video poker), and I have wired $80k to a stranger who had bought a few hundred dollars worth of action.
• The player's poker reliability. Does the player always give maximum effort? Does the player play under the influence? Do they get wasted and play games on backed dollars hungover and exhausted? One huge issue came up with Hellmuth selling action, and then letting himself get blinded down dramatically on a Day 2. To me, that is absolutely unacceptable. I pride myself on grinding no matter what, and never just punting/giving up.

What I would say is unethical is to sell something by being misleading. I have always said don't put a penny toward staking that you can't afford to lose or that you aren't looking at as 'fun money', and never would imply that a poker stake is guaranteed to pay off or whatever.  People disagree on whether it is unethical to sell for the highest markup that you can get, even if you don't think it is profitable for investors. I certainly have sold at prices lower than what I could have, especially right after winning the River because I personally wouldn't feel OK selling at a price that I didn't believe was break-even or profitable for investors.

I do think that travel costs can be considered when you are calculating markup, whereas some people have the "too bad so sad, that's on the horse" mindset. For my summer series, I have airfare, 10 nights hotel, 10 days food/beverage, etc. It adds a considerable burden to being able to play the tourneys. I don't factor the $$ in to the package cost, but if I lived in Vegas and didn't have those costs/inconveniences, I would surely sell at a lower price.

Ultimately, as long as the buyer and seller understand and agree on the terms, "scam" is an awfully big word.

Just my .02.

Edited April 16, 2019 by TXSooner518

[AUS-97HORN 11878]

3 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Just my .02.

words, lots of words....

 

just win you okie bastid!  stop fucking around and win.  

 

because if you lose, we will keep making fun of you

[crony 365]

What got me was the hate JV was getting from the Shaun Deebs and Doug Polks of the world. Hell even Jesus Ferguson gave him shit.

Hellmuth was charging 1.8 last year, and even though he has more tourney winnings, didn't get nearly as much hate even while showing up late to the tourneys others staked him for.

Edited April 16, 2019 by crony
My bad TXSooner. Stepped on your post a bit

[TXSooner518 2439]

9 minutes ago, crony said:

What got me was the hate JV was getting from the Shaun Deebs and Doug Polks of the world. Hell even Jesus Ferguson gave him shit.

Hellmuth was charging 1.8 last year, and even though he has more tourney winnings, didn't get nearly as much hate even while showing up late to the tourneys others staked him for.

I don't see this as stepping on anything. Besides, no one is gonna read my wall o'text, LOL. 

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

I read the entire wall of text. Seemed like a fairly reasonable explanation for the transaction.

Also, fuck Phil Hellmuth. It’s never not fun to watch him getting kicked in the nuts.

[deech 2313]

Jesus Ferguson and any member of Full Tilt should never, ever be allowed to call someone out as a scammer..

[dirtonia 269]

How many months in a row would you have to hit your $$$ total to quite your job?

Of course... I really shouldn’t quite my job, but it’s at least fun to think about, ja?!?!

[Lurch 5940]

6 if I could still get in 40 hours a week at the table even w a job. A year at 20/hrs a week is probably more realistic. I’d need to know my stats aren’t a fluke, and should have enough info about 1k hours in.

[dirtonia 269]

Ya, that sounds about right.  I've only started tracking my shit diligently this month.  My hourly (before last night) was $106 with just at 100 hours.

So about last night....

Playing in a 1/2 deep-stack game that plays like a 2/5, and some nights like a 5/5.  Ran my stack up to $1300, until this hand:

UTG +1, look down at pocket 10s, raise to $25, player to my left raises to $75, button calls, I call.  

Flop comes K, 10, x.  

I check, villain bets $50, button calls, I check raise to $250, villain goes all in, button folds, I call.

Villain flips over AA, and I think you all know where this is going....  hits the two outer on the river.  RIP my $1300. 

Edited April 26, 2019 by dirtonia

[CBT 1287]

Dude got 650 (or 250) BBs in with an overpair. Keep going to that game. 

[Lurch 5940]

Ya, that sounds about right.  I've only started tracking my shit diligently this month.  My hourly (before last night) was $106 with just at 100 hours.

Just set reasonable expectations for yourself . I believe the prevailing wisdom is that a stud player can expect 20 BBs per hour. 53BBs is a great start, just don’t beat yourself up when variance catches up.

Keep in mind, too, the more you play the more your competition will know you and adjust. BestBet runs 5+ tables of $2/5 and it’s rare I can get a table where 2 of the players don’t know me.

[Zwylde 813]

Hearing reports that Prime in Houston just got raided by the FBI today.  No details out yet though.

 

 

[TonyTexas 10571]

Hearing reports that Prime in Houston just got raided by the FBI today.  No details out yet though.

 

 

Poker Atlas shows they have 3 tables running and the waiting list numbers keep changing so perhaps they’re not shutdown.

 

If true then bad timing. They have a big $580 buy in, $150k guarantee tourney starting today

[deech 2313]

1 minute ago, TonyTexas said:

Poker Atlas shows they have 3 tables running and the waiting list numbers keep changing so perhaps they’re not shutdown.

I've heard that 9 clubs got raided .

[deech 2313]

Prime, Post Oak, and Lions thus far.

[CBT 1287]

fucking bullshit

[deech 2313]

1 minute ago, CBT said:

fucking bullshit

They were getting too big for their own britches and there were too many being opened everywhere.  Someone was going to challenge their legality eventually.

[deech 2313]

**Breaking News Out of Houston**

We're getting reports that Prime Social Poker Club, one of the largest clubs in the state, has been raided by law enforcement.

This is obviously very troubling news just 24 hours after Rep. Guillen's HB2669 was heard in a Texas House committee, however, we want to encourage everyone in the community to withhold judgment until more information becomes available.

Remember folks, you are innocent until proven guilty in this country.

If you have confirmed any additional information that we haven't covered already, please message the page or comment below. We'll continue to do our best to keep everyone updated as this situation develops.

**While we're not sure if this has anything to do with the timing, it's at least interesting to note that Prime Social had been advertising a $150,000 GTD No-Limit Hold'em tournament that was scheduled to begin today at 12pm.

**12:57pm - We're now hearing reports that an additional Houston-area club has been raided. Waiting for confirmation.

**1:04pm - According to multiple sources, it appears Post Oak Poker Club was also raided. Stay safe if you plan to play poker in the Houston-area today!

**1:14pm - According to someone who has spoken with both dealers and players at Prime Social, law enforcement took pictures of all the players but did not make any arrests. Everyone was allowed to take their chips home with them to eventually cash them out at a later date.

[TonyTexas 10571]

^^^^
What is the source of these updates?

[deech 2313]

Free to Compete Texas - a Facebook Organization related to the Poker Card Rooms and their attempts to get things licensed.

FYI - A group of people testified in front of a committee related to licensing these rooms just yesterday.

[TXSooner518 2439]

I had heard it was an FBI raid and "not related to poker" for whatever that's worth, but don't know. Hopefully, HB 2669 passes, I sent an email to the committee in support as well.

[deech 2313]

Lions not raided, but Post Oak was definitely hit as well.

[deech 2313]

https://abc13.com/heavy-police-presence-at-prime-social-poker-room/5280339/?fbclid=IwAR3GcqSm1k_37BWiTkFCaXLzUAclR3DMsAJ5g_4VxjSRlJaRs86Sph93dKM

[deech 2313]

**2:14pm - We're now getting conflicting reports about players being able to take their chips from Prime Social. It does appear that one of their GM's were in cuffs at one point, but it's unclear if he was actually arrested. It seems the players were told they are just witnesses, which is why their photographs were taken.

**2:28 - From ABC13: "Houston police are on the scene at one of Houston's most popular poker rooms. Police have been seen taking computers and electronic equipment out of the Prime Social Poker Club in the 7800 block of Westheimer. Police would only say there is an ongoing investigation." <See link in comments.>

**2:47 - Prime Social just posted the following: "We apologize for any inconvenience. Prime Social is currently closed until further notice. We appreciate each and everyone of you and will keep you updated." <See link in comments>

**2:52pm - We've just spoken to a representative from Mint Poker who said they are closing for the day "Out of Caution," and will tentatively reopen tomorrow at 4pm.

**2:56pm - Click2Houston now reporting... <See link in comments>

**2:58pm - ABC13's Marla Carter just tweeted a short video of electronic equipment being seized outside of Prime Social. <See link in comments>

**3:00pm - Tweeted by KHOU's Adam Bennet: "UPDATE from @HarrisCountyDAO: 2 poker clubs raided (Prime Social and Post Oak), 9 owner-operators charged w/money laundering, a 1st degree felony. Clubs' bank accounts frozen and face being seized. Result of 2-year investigation by DA's office & @houstonpolice ." <See link in comments>

[TonyTexas 10571]

Sucks that the 2 premier rooms got busted but should be a boon for all the other rooms that are barely hanging on. Also it’s good that the issue was money laundering and not the legality of the rooms.

 

[deech 2313]

Friend on Facebook posted that Mint just got raided.  Have it on good authority no raid on Lions as of yet.

 

Guy on Facebook may be wrong.  He's a nut job and Mint officially closed out of precaution until tomorrow at 4pm per the legislative group.

Edited May 1, 2019 by deech

[crony 365]

https://abc13.com/police-raid-two-houston-poker-rooms/5280339/

From that link:

Quote

"Poker rooms are illegal in the State of Texas," District Attorney Kim Ogg said. "We are changing the paradigm regarding illegal gambling by moving up the criminal chain and pursuing felony money laundering and engaging in organized crime charges against owners and operators. Players are not being targeted." 

 

[deech 2313]

RIP Poker in Houston.

[TonyTexas 10571]

Nine people face money laundering charges after authorities raided two poker rooms in Houston.
The arrests capped a two-year effort between The Harris County District Attorney’s Office and Houston Police Department, which searched the Post Oak Poker Club and Prime Social Poker Club.
Recommended Video

02:2203:14

“We are changing the paradigm regarding illegal gambling by moving up the criminal chain and pursuing felony money laundering and engaging in organized crime charges against owners and operators,” District Attorney Kim Ogg said. “Players are not being targeted.”
Those clubs’ bank accounts are now frozen and face seizure, according to the district attorney’s office. Millions of dollars have allegedly flowed through the accounts, although the office didn’t immediately provide specifics.
The owners and operators arrested at the clubs have been charged with money laundering, a first-degree felony.
ADVERTISEMENT

The people arrested in association with Post Oak Poker Club, on 1001 West Loop South Suite 400, are owners Daniel Jeffery Kebort, William Jack Heuer II, Alan Harris Chodrow, Sergio Diaz Cabrera, and Kevin Louis Chodrow, officials said.
Prime Social Poker Room, on 7801 Westheimer, employed four people who also face charges. They are owner Dean Maddox, comptroller Mary Switzer, general manager Brent J. Pollack and assistant general manager Steven Farshid.
The investigation, led by the district attorney’s office Money Laundering Division and the police department’s Vice Division, followed the arrests of nearly three dozen people last year related to illegal gambling operations in Chinatown, including three police officers.
“We can’t allow illegal gambling to go on,” Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said. “It drives organized crime and fuels other criminal activity.”

[deech 2313]

I actually think this may have been the best way for someone to challenge the legality.  I don't do criminal law just a civil litigator, but if they go after money laundering there and that requires knowingly moving proceeds from illegal activity then the underlying law comes into play.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

I hope this somehow moves the ball forward to legal poker in Texas but I’m not feeling any urgency to make that happen. It’s just depressing to see shit like this. Got damn politicians.

[deech 2313]

15 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

I hope this somehow moves the ball forward to legal poker in Texas but I’m not feeling any urgency to make that happen. It’s just depressing to see shit like this. Got damn politicians.

I think we are headed towards an appeal by at least one of the Defendants to challenge whether the poker rooms are wrong or right in their interpretation of the law.  I practically guarantee it.  Then we can see if this shit holds up or not.  I imagine that San Antonio and Austin proceeds from their poker rooms will contribute to the legal defense.

[blacklab 11994]

Talked to some people. 

This is due to the owners of both places being bookies and laundering the book money through the poker rooms, not because of poker per se. 

[CBT 1287]

2 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

I had heard it was an FBI raid and "not related to poker" for whatever that's worth, but don't know. Hopefully, HB 2669 passes, I sent an email to the committee in support as well.

is there a form or something to send more emails to the committee? Like the PPA used to do. 

[TXSooner518 2439]

Money laundering seems a huge overcharge barring something odd, given PC 47.03 and 47.04 specifically create Class A misdemeanors for "gambling promotion" and "keeping a gambling place."

[deech 2313]

14 minutes ago, blacklab said:

Talked to some people. 

This is due to the owners of both places being bookies and laundering the book money through the poker rooms, not because of poker per se. 

I've heard rumors Prime was doing just that.  I've never heard those rumors about Post Oak.  Ever.

[October sky 61]

I just don’t understand how stupid some people can be. 

[TonyTexas 10571]

I just don’t understand how stupid some people can be. 

Laundering money through an enterprise under legal scrutiny doesn’t seem smart.

[TXSooner518 2439]

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Nine-accused-of-multi-million-laundering-plot-at-13812186.php

This article says there were allegations of terroristic threats and theft related to the laundering. Also, they were charged with gambling promotion as I would normally expect plus organized crime and laundering. Simply has to be more than running a poker game here.

[deech 2313]

37 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Nine-accused-of-multi-million-laundering-plot-at-13812186.php

This article says there were allegations of terroristic threats and theft related to the laundering. Also, they were charged with gambling promotion as I would normally expect plus organized crime and laundering. Simply has to be more than running a poker game here.

Got the lawsuit from the County Attorney.  No allegations regarding bookies.  Just poker = illegal activity and these places don't really sell food/drinks.

[TXSooner518 2439]

Got the lawsuit from the County Attorney.  No allegations regarding bookies.  Just poker = illegal activity and these places don't really sell food/drinks.

Can you send that to me?

[deech 2313]

2 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

 

Can you send that to me?

 

Sent it to your Yahoo account.  The criminal complaints usually post in 12-24 hours depending on how quickly they are processed.  I doubt we will have more information the criminal charging documents though.

[po elvis 2091]

f fertitta and acevedo.

[deech 2313]

3 minutes ago, po elvis said:

f fertitta and acevedo.

Legit - woke up last month (all the rumors of a 2 year investigation by Vice is horeshit) and decided to shut them down.  Now they were raking money in by the millions (both places) obviously.  But no one should be owning/operating or playing at any room in the Harris County/Houston area from what I am reading.

[deech 2313]

Prime Social Facebook blasting HPD picking up stuff for toys it had donated from players for Christmas.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Thanks for all the updates please keep them coming.

[deech 2313]

Looks like the people arrested were just hit with Money Laundeering.   Not gambling arrests though that is part of the underlying accusations (that they are running an illegal gambling place and proceeds from that place are laundeered)

[Chewbacca 7793]

I think everyone knew something like this was going to happen eventually, didn't we?  Assuming this is strictly about poker and not the other bullshit, hopefully the other card room owners pony up to help pay for the defense.  

[deech 2313]

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I think everyone knew something like this was going to happen eventually, didn't we?  Assuming this is strictly about poker and not the other bullshit, hopefully the other card room owners pony up to help pay for the defense.  

The County Attorney brought civil TRO lawsuits against these places and their landlords like they do against rub and tug joints.  I suspect that they may be able to challenge these arrests extremely quickly through these civil lawsuits and we can get an appellate opinion on the legality of social clubs in relation to the gambling statute.

[deech 2313]

Some of the poker rooms in Houston are going to remain open.  Lions Poker Palace obviously the biggest.