2019 Poker run gooder or die thread

[Bookman 4,639]

13 hours ago, Lurch said:

Can someone give me a play by play where you feel like opening the flop with an over bet is a good play? I’ve seen it a bit recently, particularly in smaller $2/2 pots, and I’m curious what the logic behind it is, if there is any.

I've donked with an overbet against bad players when I flopped a set and I think they have an overpair.

[Dropout 355]

Tourney 18 left 20 bb stack A9o mid position. A couple bigger stacks to my left 60-80bb. Is this a shove? Min raise? 2.5?

[Dropout 355]

Make that 10 bb and 30-40 bb stacks to my left. Math is hard.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Dropout

[Lurch 5,931]

Definitely not a shove at 20 BBs. Probably a fold unless in HJ+. From those seats I’m opening 2.2 BBs

 

At 10 BBs is when I would start shoving it as a MP opener. Not shoving over anyone else though.

 

 

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Yeah shoving 20x with A9 would be pretty pukey other than maaaaybe on BTN or SB. Agree with Lurch, in most spots in mid to late position with A9 and 20 bigs, I would raise 2.2x.

Def jamming 10x with A9 from mid and late positions. Early positions depend on players behind, in blinds, and if it is Big Blind Ante or not.

Also you say 18 left, but didn't mention how many get paid, which can certainly impact the decision. For example if 15 get paid, I would not jam the 10 blinds with A9 except maybe from button and SB, especially if there are micro stacks.

[Dropout 355]

Already itm starting 27th place. Mentioned 18 cause the real money is only 17 away. Just really pisses me off when I can’t close the deal so close. As long as the play is right I’ll take it. Lost a flip the hand before for a big pot wanted to be sure it wasn’t a tilt shove. That’s what it feels like when you get snapped w AQ.

Limping any hands in early position this late in the tourney w 20bb? Hands like A6s J8s 56s 34s?? and the occasional AA KK. Have been trying to utilize the limp from early position more and it’s been going well except this last one. Got exploited and the big trap hand never came.

 

[Lurch 5,931]

#TeamNeverOpenLimpEspeciallyEarlyPositionWhatTheHellDude

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Yeah open limping in early position is a definite nope. When stacks are shallow I think there are a few spots where limping the button makes sense and limping S.B. can also. But a strategy of never limping first in isn’t gonna be very wrong.

[AUS-97HORN 11,809]

I made 2 bad reads the last 2 sessions. 

First is a bomb pot 9 handed  where I am the button with Q9o 

SB has $200 effective to start, LP has $400 effective (and shes been catching cards like crazy). 

Flop up top is A-A-K,  2 clubs. 

Flop on bottom is Q-6-3,  also, 2 clubs. 

SB bets out $10 almost whole table calls.  I float one call for $10.   Turn brings another K up top, and a 9x on the bottom, so now I have top 2 on the bottom, and unless someone has a set specifically.  Im ahead on the bottom board.  Sb bets out $45, folds to LP to just calls.

My read is, both players have the Ace and are going to chop the top board.  I decide to bet large  with the hope that both call and I can end up taking half the pot.  I make it $200 , SB calls as expected calls for his $140... but LP folds.... shit.  oh well this should be a chop.

SB shows....... AA.   wow. but hey thats cool this should still be a chop, although hes got 6 outs to scoop.   Top board throws out a 9c. bottom board.... is a 6.    and he scoops.  I know this seems like a dumb move, but I didnt see anyway that a single K cold calls the bet on the turn, and with the chance of the flush on the top board no longer being good, I put her on an ace, and if they both have the ace, no matter what else their kicker is, I am ahead on the bottom board, and can take half of what would have been a roughly  $700 pot with a $200 bet. I mean who the hell puts a guy on quad aces?  and even then I was pretty good to chop anyway, but poker gods punished me ( probably deserved). 

ended that session down $100.

today I played for maybe 90 minutes, I realized I was playing terribly and left after 90 mins.  first half hour, I lose around $30 in various hands until this hand happens.

Im in LP. 2nd to act makes it $15 and gets 1 caller.   folds to me and I look down at 2 black Q, so I bump it up (note I miscounted here, I meant to grab $65 but only grabbed $55), and I make it $55.  Folds back to raiser... who puts out a whole stack of red and makes it $115 (he started with around $400).

This bet seems pretty strange to me.  Yeah its a 3 bet, and its a large one, but this bet and sizing doesnt really make sense with a top 4 hand, other than maybe AK, or KK because he is scared of an ace hitting.  I take a minute, theres no chance of me shoving pre- here, I will get snapped called by almost anything.  

I decide I should just call.  happy to be told be everyone that I am a fucking idiot for just calling a total of around 40% of my stack, but I just didnt think I could really fold to the extra $60 when I already had $55 in the pot.

flop comes Ax-Ts-6s.  He checks.  and he checks in such a way that I read he's really not happy with the ace.   

So if he had KK, there is a chance I can push him out here.   And I decide to go for it, I shove.     AND he snap calls....  Furk. 

he flops over AsAh,   FANTASTIC READ MORON

so Im fucking dead, spade draw is out, I need runner runner queens. I even put my cards facedown on the table and push them towards the dealer. 

Turn is a Jx.... river is a King.... oh shit.   I actually apologize, and say I have the straight as I flip over my ladies.  just ouch to that guy.  looked it up and I had less than a 2% chance of winning that hand  easily one of the worst beats if not the worst Ive put on someone for real money. 

I do end up winning another pot later on where I had 86hh.   UTG limps, Im in MP and make it $5 to play, LP makes it $17, and SB and UTG both call, so I call for the extra $12.

on a 5h-5x-3h  flop where  its checked to me, I check, LP bets out $25,  SB folds, UTG calls $25, and I make a squeeze play move and raise it to $75.  didnt think UTG had a 5 in their range, and LP could just be C-betting.   LP takes a bit, and finally calls, UTG folds.

turn is a 7x, and I wait about 15 seconds and shove for what is effectively around $240. 

LP tanks for a bit and finally folds.   looking back I am really not sure I like the shove here.  It worked, and yes I had the potential for a lot of outs, but Im just not sure.  again happy to hear any ideas on this one. 

played a few more hands, decided that I wasnt playing very well, I had a miracle double up and I should leave with a profit and an anti-bad beat that means I cant complain about the next bad beat I take.   ended up $350 on the nose. 

 

[TXSooner518 2,438]

2 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

SB shows....... AA.   wow. but hey thats cool this should still be a chop, although hes got 6 outs to scoop.   Top board throws out a 9c. bottom board.... is a 6.    and he scoops.  I know this seems like a dumb move, but I didnt see anyway that a single K cold calls the bet on the turn,.

You're beating yourself up too much on this hand. Your general logic is fine, except lol at someone folding a K on AAKK in a bomb pot for $45.

Im in LP. 2nd to act makes it $15 and gets 1 caller.   folds to me and I look down at 2 black Q, so I bump it up (note I miscounted here, I meant to grab $65 but only grabbed $55), and I make it $55.  Folds back to raiser... who puts out a whole stack of red and makes it $115 (he started with around $400).

This bet seems pretty strange to me.  Yeah its a 3 bet, and its a large one, but this bet and sizing doesnt really make sense with a top 4 hand, other than maybe AK, or KK because he is scared of an ace hitting.  I take a minute, theres no chance of me shoving pre- here, I will get snapped called by almost anything.  

It's actually a 4bet, and it's not a large one. He's laying you $185 to $60, so over 3 to 1. This looks like AA pretty specifically. If he's worried about an ace with KK, he would bet much bigger. I'd probably call the $60 also due to the odds, but not thrilled with it. 

So if he had KK, there is a chance I can push him out here.   And I decide to go for it, I shove.     AND he snap calls....  Furk.  

This is way too narrow of a target, and given that he's getting good odds on a shove, he may spite call KK anyway. Take your free card.

so Im fucking dead, spade draw is out, I need runner runner queens. I even put my cards facedown on the table and push them towards the dealer. 

Don't do this when you have any equity. For one, the dealer might kill your hand, and for two, it really just amps the needle/slowroll factor x 100. I'm amazed that wasn't my AA.

I do end up winning another pot later on where I had 86hh.   UTG limps, Im in MP and make it $5 to play, LP makes it $17, and SB and UTG both call, so I call for the extra $12.

Why in god's name are we going $5 over UTG limpers with 8 high? Either limp behind, fold, or actually raise. 

on a 5h-5x-3h  flop where  its checked to me, I check, LP bets out $25,  SB folds, UTG calls $25, and I make a squeeze play move and raise it to $75.  didnt think UTG had a 5 in their range, and LP could just be C-betting.   LP takes a bit, and finally calls, UTG folds.

turn is a 7x, and I wait about 15 seconds and shove for what is effectively around $240. 

LP tanks for a bit and finally folds.   looking back I am really not sure I like the shove here.  It worked, and yes I had the potential for a lot of outs, but Im just not sure.  again happy to hear any ideas on this one. 

I don't like check/raising small on this flop. Either bet the flop, check-call, or check-raise big enough to get hands to fold. You're laying the opp 4 to 1 to call, what are they folding?  Also, bloating the pot on a paired board with 8 high flush draw and no other outs is bad. Would like it much better with something like Ah2h or if we got there with 6h4h. We hit a sweet turn card, don't hate the jam against soft villains who don't think in depth, they just think "wow $240 is a lot of money and I just have eights, I should fold". Against someone who can hand read, what exactly should they be putting you on other than hearts?  Most players won't put a 5 in your range, and are you really jamming full pot on turn with a boat on a drawy board instead of letting them draw cheap?

 

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,809]

@TXSooner518   I dont disagree at all. except these APP  1/2 games play so different from day to day and table to table.   That small $5 raise... honestly more than 40% of the time it clears the table all the way to the BB or limper.   Then other times it goes $5, 15, 35, 60 with 5 callers to the flop and $300 already in the middle.

The 86hh hand I realized afterwards was a bad shove to any competent player, what the fuck was I representing other than maybe an overpair to the board?  It shouldnt have worked, and I realized I was playing terribly and needed to reset.

as for the AA hand,  I understand the isolation raise in a tourney, but I really would have expected AA to smooth call there to entice the limper to come along.  and yeah the shove was bad.  assuming he wasnt making it $115 with something like 55, there are only 3 hands that I might be able to get to fold on that ATx board.  KK (maybe), QQ (obviously super doubtful considering theres only 1 combo of that), JJ.... which I am already beating.   I got flat tricked and stepped right into the trap. No excuses.

 

[Lurch 5,931]

$2/2.

3 limps to me. I make it $13 on BTN w AhAd. UTG and UTG+2 call. $40 pot.

Tc3s5h. UTG leads out $16, UTG+2 calls. I make it $50. Both call. $190 pot.

7h. UTG leads out $75. UTG calls all in for his last $40.

UTG has $225 more behind and I have him covered.

What do you do?

[bigup2dahorns 3,343]

Jam. Pray. Smells like 2 draws or one overpair you have crushed. I think you are ahead, without knowing anything about the other players.

[Lurch 5,931]

UTG is young Asian dude. I’ve not seen him before but he appears to be solid. Not overly aggressive and has properly called at least one of my bluffs. UTG+2 is old black guy that looks disinterested. Usually the type I make most money off of at $2/2.

[Lurch 5,931]

I’m baffled by his $75 donk bet on turn. Almost seemed like something you’d do if you flopped two ugly pairs, but none seemed to make sense given preflop action. I decided I wasn’t concerned with UTG+2.

I’m hoping he has KThh. I shove, he snaps.









64hh. :-/

[bigup2dahorns 3,343]

Well that is sub-optimal.

[Lurch 5,931]

I made it all back in about 10 mins when I raised pre and then bet all three streets with 78hh on a board of

7c8c9c 8d Td

 

And got called the whole way by AcKc and JJ

 

Giveth/taketh

 

[TXSooner518 2,438]

[mention=308]TXSooner518[/mention]   That small $5 raise... honestly more than 40% of the time it clears the table all the way to the BB or limper.   Then other times it goes $5, 15, 35, 60 with 5 callers to the flop and $300 already in the middle.

 

as for the AA hand,  I understand the isolation raise in a tourney, but I really would have expected AA to smooth call there to entice the limper to come along.  and yeah the shove was bad.

 

What are we trying to accomplish with the $5 though? There’s not enough in the pot to care about winning right now. If we manage to isolate against the limper, OK so we are in a headsup small pot with 8 hi . And 86hh isn’t flopping great enough to do a pot builder like you might do with 44 or JTs.

 

And AA should be focusing on getting as much of your money in the pot as possible. If you have JJ or QQ or KK, he wants your money in before overcards come (he can’t predict you will yolo jam QQ on A high lol). If you have AK he wants your money in before you whiff the flop.

$2/2.

 

3 limps to me. I make it $13 on BTN w AhAd. UTG and UTG+2 call. $40 pot.

 

Tc3s5h. UTG leads out $16, UTG+2 calls. I make it $50. Both call. $190 pot.

 

7h. UTG leads out $75. UTG calls all in for his last $40.

 

UTG has $225 more behind and I have him covered.

 

What do you do?

 

Any reads on UTG? Age/appearance if we don’t have history?

 

Without more, I’m gonna call turn with plan of calling most rivers. While we are ahead a lot, I think jamming here looks super strong so we just isolate against his very best hands.

 

UTG2 is padding the pot for us because he’s almost surely awful. Limp call $13 pre while shorter than $100 then call 16, then 34 more on flop leaving 40 back. Just lol.

 

Edit: more posts came in after I replied. Still think call turn, call most rivers is best.

[po elvis 2,075]

4 hours ago, Lurch said:

I’m baffled by his $75 donk bet on turn. Almost seemed like something you’d do if you flopped two ugly pairs, but none seemed to make sense given preflop action. I decided I wasn’t concerned with UTG+2.

I’m hoping he has KThh. I shove, he snaps.









64hh. 😕

where i play ( San Antonio), your raise to $13 with 3 limps before you is tiny. i expect to be called by anybody that has already limped in with ATC.

[Dropout 355]

5 hours ago, Lurch said:

I’m baffled by his $75 donk bet on turn. Almost seemed like something you’d do if you flopped two ugly pairs, but none seemed to make sense given preflop action. I decided I wasn’t concerned with UTG+2.

I’m hoping he has KThh. I shove, he snaps.









64hh. 😕

Maybe not team never ever limp? This is definitely a line I would take. To explain... It’s possible by raising pre w a hand like 64s from EP I never see a flop. I like flops. You’re giving me odds the whole way to call you w 64s and stack all kinds of big hands. His donk bet is a strong value bet bc he knows you have a big hand given preflop and flop action. It happens plenty enough to make the limp profitable if you’re disciplined w your approach and don’t get sticky fingers w mediocrity against made hands. Throw in a bluff here and there and we are rolling. Add a trap limp after the table sees some of the hands you’ve limped w before and profit.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Dropout

[Dropout 355]

On 7/17/2019 at 9:59 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

I do end up winning another pot later on where I had 86hh.   UTG limps, Im in MP and make it $5 to play, LP makes it $17, and SB and UTG both call, so I call for the extra $12.

on a 5h-5x-3h  flop where  its checked to me, I check, LP bets out $25,  SB folds, UTG calls $25, and I make a squeeze play move and raise it to $75.  didnt think UTG had a 5 in their range, and LP could just be C-betting.   LP takes a bit, and finally calls, UTG folds.

turn is a 7x, and I wait about 15 seconds and shove for what is effectively around $240. 

LP tanks for a bit and finally folds.   looking back I am really not sure I like the shove here.  It worked, and yes I had the potential for a lot of outs, but Im just not sure.  again happy to hear any ideas on this one. 

played a few more hands, decided that I wasnt playing very well, I had a miracle double up and I should leave with a profit and an anti-bad beat that means I cant complain about the next bad beat I take.   ended up $350 on the nose. 

 

Limp calling pre on this one. I’m prob check calling flop 90% where I could have monsters like 33 53s. Check raising 10% to about $100-$120 repping range A5s 45s 56s 57s 58s and hopefully getting folds. Works better if the table has seen you play these hands and villain is soft. 

As played I don’t mind the shove on the turn 7x. You get there on the river only like 30% it’s necessary to bluff shove and a hand like 68hh is good. You have no showdown value and have as good card removal as your going to get given the scenario.

Hard to analyze once decisions deviate but if I limp pre and check call flop it’s an obviously smaller pot by the turn 7x. The pot control simply allows room to run a cheaper check raise bluff on the turn 7x.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Dropout

[Lurch 5,931]

where i play ( San Antonio), your raise to $13 with 3 limps before you is tiny. i expect to be called by anybody that has already limped in with ATC.

I want callers, and expect to get 1 or 2 here.

[Lurch 5,931]

Maybe not team never ever limp? This is definitely a line I would take. To explain... It’s possible by raising pre w a hand like 64s from EP I never see a flop. I like flops. You’re giving me odds the whole way to call you w 64s and stack all kinds of big hands. His donk bet is a strong value bet bc he knows you have a big hand given preflop and flop action. It happens plenty enough to make the limp profitable if you’re disciplined w your approach and don’t get sticky fingers w mediocrity against made hands. Throw in a bluff here and there and we are rolling. Add a trap limp after the table sees some of the hands you’ve limped w before and profit.

I’m sure it’s fun when it hits, but seeing a lot of flops by limp calling 64s in EP is just not going to be OP.

[Dropout 355]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

 

I’m sure it’s fun when it hits, but seeing a lot of flops by limp calling 64s in EP is just not going to be OP.

 

Respectfully disagree. 50+ bb deep more than OP. You started the hand w what 180bb? When you play those hands you’re playing for stacks against big hands that have trouble folding. Young Asian guy can now limp 180 pots and fail to make his strategy not OP.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Dropout

[Lurch 5,931]

He’s losing $13 every time he misses the flop, which is most of the time.

You’re also not accounting for when he chases his draw past the flop and misses, or catches top pair and calls me down, etc.

Then there are the times that he hits and I don’t have anything worth calling his bets with.

There are ample coaches online that discuss this at length. Limp opening in low stakes is not a viable winning strategy. Opening this wide, period, from EP is just burning money even on the tightest of tables.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

6 hours ago, Dropout said:

Respectfully disagree. 50+ bb deep more than OP. You started the hand w what 180bb? When you play those hands you’re playing for stacks against big hands that have trouble folding. Young Asian guy can now limp 180 pots and fail to make his strategy not OP.

Respectfully disagree with your disagreement. As Lurch notes, villain paid 6.5 bigs not 1 to chase this flop (which was a much much better than average flop for villain, yet he is still a 2 to 1 underdog in the hand) So this one hand "paid" for 25 or so like it. But it isn't a case of "lose $13 or win $360". 

Sometime he flops hard but wins just a little because Lurch had AK this time and doesn't put money in on a 654 flop. 

Sometimes he flops hard and loses a big pot, like if he flops a flush but lurch has AA with A of hearts and binks or if the flop is T64 and it runs out 2-2 or a T comes (AA will beat 64 25% of the time on T64).

Sometimes he flops a medium piece.  Do you think he should check/call or check/fold on boards like 962 with one heart?  Sometimes he flops a good draw and loses a decent pot. This hand, he called the $50 flop bet with less than a 20% chance of turning the straight. So 80+% of the time in this exact hand, he puts $63 in then has to check fold to Lurch bombing turn (or maybe he picks up a heart draw and has to decide whether to call $120 or so on the turn with 6 hi or nah).

Also, he calls the $13 in this hand preflop with a live opponent behind him with less than $100 stack. That opponent will on occasion decide to just jam his $95 into the $30 already in the pot, and either take it down or run it for more than a double. So  then he paid 6.5 BB for absolutely nothing.

Another MASSIVE problem is that if we are limping 64hh, we are limping over half of our hands (Equilab adds it when you get to 59% VPIP). Dropout what is your raise range and limp range folded to you UTG2 let's say?

Bottom line: you can't win money at poker when you are playing out of position AND your opponent's range has yours crushed PLUS your opponent has the betting lead. 

[CBT 1,282]

I personally play a mixed strat where I limp re-reaise red AA and black 64s only. 

[Lurch 5,931]

[Lurch 5,931]

I personally play a mixed strat where I limp re-reaise red AA and black 64s only. 

Unbeatable.

[CBT 1,282]

well to be fair, 64o is a stronger hand to shove since you have TWO flush draws.

[Dropout 355]

4 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Respectfully disagree with your disagreement. As Lurch notes, villain paid 6.5 bigs not 1 to chase this flop (which was a much much better than average flop for villain, yet he is still a 2 to 1 underdog in the hand) So this one hand "paid" for 25 or so like it. But it isn't a case of "lose $13 or win $360". 

Sometime he flops hard but wins just a little because Lurch had AK this time and doesn't put money in on a 654 flop. 

And sometimes no one has anything I agree. This is a bluff spot. Find a way to win more than half of them. I’m not complaining about taking down a small pot w 64s UTG. This is great.

Sometimes he flops hard and loses a big pot, like if he flops a flush but lurch has AA with A of hearts and binks or if the flop is T64 and it runs out 2-2 or a T comes (AA will beat 64 25% of the time on T64).

I mean this is what we want right? Villain putting money in bad bc they have no idea what we are playing? 

Sometimes he flops a medium piece.  Do you think he should check/call or check/fold on boards like 962 with one heart? 

Check call any reasonable bet every time. Backdoor draws and you may be good anyway. Evaluate the hand and villain.

Sometimes he flops a good draw and loses a decent pot. This hand, he called the $50flop bet with less than a 20% chance of turning the straight. So 80+% of the time in this exact hand, he puts $63 in then has to check fold to Lurch bombing turn (or maybe he picks up a heart draw and has to decide whether to call $120 or so on the turn with 6 hi or nah).

Villain led 16 I’d imagine as a blocker bet or to see where he stands. The raise to 50 by lurch is too small imo. 34 more into a now implied 190 pot. The odds are there. Shoving a heart on the turn if we aren’t playing nice. Could easily have TT 33 55 and 35s with action on the flop.

Also, he calls the $13 in this hand preflop with a live opponent behind him with less than $100 stack. That opponent will on occasion decide to just jam his $95 into the $30 already in the pot, and either take it down or run it for more than a double. So  then he paid 6.5 BB for absolutely nothing.

How often is this happening? Not often enough. I welcome UTG2 call with my hand.

Another MASSIVE problem is that if we are limping 64hh, we are limping over half of our hands (Equilab adds it when you get to 59% VPIP). Dropout what is your raise range and limp range folded to you UTG2 let's say?

I am not limping every hand UTG or UTG2. I’m raising 2.5bb usually w say 99-QQ AK AQ AJ AT KQ KJo. 50/50 limp or 2.5bb w AA KK to balance limping range. 

Limping hands like 22-88 45s-JQs 35s-KJs KTs. Give me odds preflop on any raise and I’m taking a flop. Raising w some of these hands starting MP.

Bottom line: you can't win money at poker when you are playing out of position AND your opponent's range has yours crushed PLUS your opponent has the betting lead. 

Responded in quotes. I appreciate this conversation. Pick it apart.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Dropout

[Dropout 355]

3 hours ago, Lurch said:

 

Lol come on now this isn’t supposed to be directed towards this conversation right? Give me more credit than that at least.

[blacklab 11,941]

Two surly posters sitting next to each other at table next to mine at app

[TXSooner518 2,438]

11 hours ago, Dropout said:

Responded in quotes. I appreciate this conversation. Pick it aprt.

My responses in italics:

And sometimes no one has anything I agree. This is a bluff spot. Find a way to win more than half of them. I’m not complaining about taking down a small pot w 64s UTG. This is great.

Two points on this one: 1) I was pointing out that even in the 6% of the time we smash the flop (2p+) we aren't guaranteed to win a big pot. 2) On flops where no one has anything, it's really really hard to "win more than half" because we are OOP, don't have the betting lead, and have a dramatically weaker range than our opponent. Say flop is J95, are you donking?  Check-raising?  Check-calling to take it away later? May work against AK, but hemorrhaging money against JJ+. What is your plan to "win more than half" of blank flops when he has AK while not getting annihilated by the top of his range.

I mean this is what we want right? Villain putting money in bad bc they have no idea what we are playing? 

Don't get me wrong, I'll take getting it in as a 3-1 fave always, but the point is that we got a top 5% flop and STILL aren't in a hugely dominant situation. I think you are over-valuing the "villain doesn't know what we have" aspect as compared to the "our hand is weak and we are OOP aspect."

Sometimes he flops a medium piece.  Do you think he should check/call or check/fold on boards like 962 with one heart? 

Check call any reasonable bet every time. Backdoor draws and you may be good anyway. Evaluate the hand and villain.

Right so in this hand we are check-calling the flop with 5 outs. 12% to improve, and OOP.  Folding to turn barrel on a blank, or "putting him on AK" and clicking call again?

Villain led 16 I’d imagine as a blocker bet or to see where he stands. The raise to 50 by lurch is too small imo. 34 more into a now implied 190 pot. The odds are there. Shoving a heart on the turn if we aren’t playing nice. Could easily have TT 33 55 and 35s with action on the flop.

Villain played this all pretty bad.  Leading 16 with his OESD with an opp behind who has about 80 behind is just asking that opp to jam in his face. If shorty jams, villain doesn't quite have odds to call his OESD if Lurch folds (but would almost surely make a slightly -EV call anyway). I do agree that I would like a larger raise by Lurch, but villain absolutely can't assume a 190 pot. UTG2 made an AWFUL flat, you should assume he will either fold or jam to the $50 at this point. 

Also, he calls the $13 in this hand preflop with a live opponent behind him with less than $100 stack. That opponent will on occasion decide to just jam his $95 into the $30 already in the pot, and either take it down or run it for more than a double. So  then he paid 6.5 BB for absolutely nothing.

How often is this happening? Not often enough. I welcome UTG2 call with my hand.

We don't mind the UTG2 call but the jam isn't a trivial occurrence. Even if it happens 10% of the time that is cutting into an already very marginal spot for us. Another problem with UTG2 is he may be jamming lots of flops which hurts our chances to draw, and also we have not great implied odds against his stack (meaning if Lurch has nothing but UTG2 has a hand that we double through, we aren't coming close to winning enough to offset all of our flop check-folds.

EDIT: Ran some numbers, and we don't like the UTG2 call that much. We are 34% against the raising range I listed for myself below, holding 64hh. We drop to 26% giving UTG2 a range of 22-TT, broadways other than AK/AQ, all suited aces, 76o+, 65s+, 64s+, K9s.  We'd rather win 26% of a 3 way pot than 34% of a headsup pot, in this hand, headsup we are 34% to win a $32 pot ($10.88 EV), 3way we are 26% to win a $43 pot ($11.18 EV).  So we win 30 extra cents pre by villain calling. Note that if Lurch was allin for his last $13 here, we are -EV to call our hand, without even factoring in playing later streets deep, OOP, with a range disadvantage.

I am not limping every hand UTG or UTG2. I’m raising 2.5bb usually w say 99-QQ AK AQ AJ AT KQ KJo. 50/50 limp or 2.5bb w AA KK to balance limping range. 

Limping hands like 22-88 45s-JQs 35s-KJs KTs. Give me odds preflop on any raise and I’m taking a flop. Raising w some of these hands starting MP.

What odds preflop do you think are good for hands like 53s to take headsup OOP?  Limping half of AA and KK doesn't balance your limping range at all. You are limping 120 combinations, 6 of which are AA or KK. So when you limp, 5% of the time you have a monster and the rest of the time you have small pairs or suited connectors/gappers. I am going to be raining raises on your limps and whittling your stack. 

Do you really think if we played a game where we each start with $250, put $13 each into the pot, give me the button, give you a hand out of 22-88, 45s-JQs, 35s-KJs, KTs, KhKd, KhKs, KhKc, AhAd, AhAs, AhAc and give me a hand out of 77-AA, suited broadways, ATo+, A8s+, KQo, that you are the favorite in this game? And that's without the dynamic of me being the opening raiser. Just the position and range advantages will destroy you long-term, guaranteed.

Agree on always enjoying poker convo/debate.

Edited July 20, 2019 by TXSooner518

[Lurch 5,931]

What would a good raise on flop have been? There was $40 in pot, pre. UTG made it $16 and UTG+1 called. Now $70 in pot and I love my hand. I’m betting for value and don’t want either of them to fold. I think any more and UTG starts folding his top pairs and UTG+1 has to start thinking shove or fold.

I really feel like $50 was the number

[Lurch 5,931]

Lol come on now this isn’t supposed to be directed towards this conversation right? Give me more credit than that at least.

No! Completely unrelated. Just a super sick hand that someone put up yesterday. 64o just made it that much more hilarious

[TXSooner518 2,438]

What would a good raise on flop have been? There was $40 in pot, pre. UTG made it $16 and UTG+1 called. Now $70 in pot and I love my hand. I’m betting for value and don’t want either of them to fold. I think any more and UTG starts folding his top pairs and UTG+1 has to start thinking shove or fold.

I really feel like $50 was the number

I don’t think UTG is folding top pair on this board for more and if the other guy wants to jam, then great! Would you ever go 50 here with AK or AQ?

I honestly don’t hate calling to let villain keep barreling and disguise our hand. When we raise, we are announcing we like our hand a lot which is going to narrow his range anyway. If we do that, I wanna get more value from it. I’d go like 70.

For example if he has like 77-88 and is wanting to “see where he’s at”, he may fold to a flop raise (whether 50 or 70) but may bet blank turns to protect against your “AK”.

On the flip side I think JT is calling your flop raise whether 50 or 70 so might as well go bigger.

If villain hadn’t bet, I like smaller bet sizings since we are betting a huge range on this flop, we just aren’t raising a huge range when he bets (IMO).

[Lurch 5,931]

I WANT UTG+1 to jam, but my concern is that he would fold. I would absolutely go $50 w AJo+, 22+ on that flop where I was the preflop aggressor on BTN. Given how often I take such hands down, I expect callers if they’ve been paying attention as they should think my range is pretty wide.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

You’re going $50 over $16 and a call with AJ or 22 on T53r, with the caller having 1/3 of their stack already in the pot? We are raising our entire raise range over a bet and call on a board that favors their range over ours?

Bettor is getting 4 to 1 on the raise so I don’t think they are folding much which is cool when we have AA but not when we have AJ or 22.

[Lurch 5,931]

Correct. I showed strength pre and want to keep that story going. My big hands and semi bluffs should look the same. I can credibly claim any A, K, Q, J that comes on turn, plus still look like I have an over pair even if none of those comes.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Correct. I showed strength pre and want to keep that story going. My big hands and semi bluffs should look the same. I can credibly claim any A, K, Q, J that comes on turn, plus still look like I have an over pair even if none of those comes.

I think raising our whole range readless here is a huge mistake. Villain can 3b his whole range and print bc we have soooo many nothing hands. If we are raising our whole range we gotta go bigger. We are giving 4 to 1 when holding mostly air.

[Lurch 5,931]

I think raising our whole range readless here is a huge mistake. Villain can 3b his whole range and print bc we have soooo many nothing hands. If we are raising our whole range we gotta go bigger. We are giving 4 to 1 when holding mostly air.

I wouldn’t expect him to 3bet often, if ever. He has a player behind and is OOP to both of us so he’s not bluff 3betting. If he has a great hand, he’s not donking 1/3rd pot.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

I wouldn’t expect him to 3bet often, if ever. He has a player behind and is OOP to both of us so he’s not bluff 3betting. If he has a great hand, he’s not donking 1/3rd pot.

Yeah we’ve been recently discussing in a vacuum, things change with reads. If you are sure of the last line and whether that includes a ten, and what he does with a ten then cool. I would still much rather have AJ in my flop raise range here than 22.

[Lurch 5,931]

22 and 66 are iffy, for sure, but I still have some sets and backdoor straight options with them.

 

With most of my weaker hands I’d probably check through a lot of turns and see how the remaining players act on river.

 

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Playing the $200 20k at Lodge. Soooo many hands where people are just mashing buttons. Guy goes 600 with KQo over two EP limps for 100. Dude with 64dd bets 2/3 pot on AQJT5 with 4 to the Royal. Are you bluffing? Hoping the guy has one of the 3 non diamond Kings and pays off? No one knows!

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Uggghh. Open QThh at 300/600/600 to 1500, BB defend. AJ7hhh he ck call 1300. J turn he ck call 2500 and ck dark. A river . I ck he A5.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Bit of payback. Guy jams 6700 with AJ UTG at 400/800/800, I call AT with Ah and board runs all hearts.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Lol. I open 2k off stack of 18k at 400/800/800 with TT. Guy calls, then a guy who has been discussing his summer and is obv good jams 16.2k and I jam. Other guy folds. Guy at table is like must be aces and kings!! And is just amazed that we have TT and AQs.

We win the flip BTW.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Lol. I open 2k off stack of 18k at 400/800/800 with TT. Guy calls, then a guy who has been discussing his summer and is obv good jams 16.2k and I jam. Other guy folds. Guy at table is like must be aces and kings!! And is just amazed that we have TT and AQs.

We win the flip BTW.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Limp 65cc for 1k on button behind 3 limps and dead small blind, bb checks. Flop 234hh. Checks to guy on my right who bets 2k. I just call, partially bc one of the limpers loves to just spazz allin (he jammed 25k over my 1100 into 3300 earlier and open jammed 27k at 400/800).

BB jams 20k, folds to bettor who calls for about the same. Obv I call. Bettor has A5, BB has T3 (lol) and we hold to KO both. Made a lot of money by just calling and not worrying about bad turns.