2019 Poker run gooder or die thread

[TXSooner518 2438]

Yeah, playing poker with any kind of "karma" or superstition or thinking that previous hands somehow impact what will happen in future hands is really bad thinking. 

I can't remember the nitty gritty details, but I was playing a 1k in LA several years ago, and this guy next to me started bitching that he "never wins" when a certain dealer is in the box. Someone raised, he looks at his cards (he has like 15-20 big blinds) and starts grumbling, finally shows me AK and mucks it. "I know I won't win with her as the dealer." That's just pure fishthink, and now of course he won't win with her in the box, because he's letting it make him play ATROCIOUS poker. 

For you AUS-97, you need to try to get over this weird mental block. That said, if you can't, it may be better to just fold instead of playing a hand awfully because of some karma hocus pocus.

Dude at the table last night jams 30k over my open to 900 at 200/400/400.  I fold and ask him "wow, that worried about seeing a flop with jacks?" He shows the jacks and says "yeah man I hate this hand."  Same thing. Of course you hate them. You win 1900 when they are good and get stacked off or doubled through when they are behind. 

Similar fishthink would be playing certain cards because "sevens are hot tonight!" or whatever.  Same JJ guy said he was just going to jam if he got AA because they had been shown down at our table 9 times and hadn't lost so they were "due to lose."  NOPE. Not actually how that works.

Same fishthink at blackjack when people think their expectation changes because the donk at 3rd base hits a hand they shouldn't when the dealer has a bust card.  Guy at the Lodge said he bets $100/hand blackjack and would pay 3rd base $50 to not hit a 12 against a 5 showing.  Others will leave a table with a great count b/c of a fish at 3rd base. It's pure idiocy. Why is the first card off the deck more likely to be a brick than the second card off the deck? 

Now obviously I "know" I"m going to always suffer the most beats (my two busts yesterday - I jam AdKc for 12 BB UTG, BB SNAPcalls 76cc, runs out QJJcc Tc Qx; I checkraise allin 22 on Q92sss, called by AsQx, would go from 16k to 40k to win this hand with 55 left, paying 27, blank turn, spade river obv). BUT the key is I never deviate from what I know is the best play because of that. 

[dirtonia 269]

Haven’t been able to play in the last few weeks, but before that I was getting destroyed in PLO.

 

Fuck PLO!

 

Need another upswing like I had in April. April was a $17k month — let’s do this!

 

[dirtonia 269]

Oh, and every time I see someone with stacks of 10 in Austin, I assume it is the OP.

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

alright. I was waiting on Lurch and Sooner's response so here is the story.

happens on Saturday night.

$5 straddle hand, I'm 2nd to act. 

Dealer flat out flips over my very first card,  there wasnt any wind, it didnt bounce off of something, it didnt slide and catch air and flip.

The card is pretty much flipped over as its coming out of his hand.

Card is the Kh.    Well that sucks, but OK, Ive been getting K3o, K5o a lot, so I assume the 2nd card is going to be similar.

Lets see the 2nd card......  ANNNNNNNDDDDDDDD    2nd card is the Kd.    

Typical.

replacement card is...... Ad.

so, at that moment, I go from KK to AKs, but I now know that one of my big outs is off the table and my hand, while strong, has been downgraded.

new UTG folds.   You have AKs no voluntary money in the pot and now have to act.  You know a big out is off the table.  what do you do?

So, based on the thread responses.  I know Lurch and Sooner are probably playing it like any other hand.  

but curious what the rest of you want to do here.   choices are 1) raise anyway because fuck it, its AK, 2) limp and see how the rest of the table acts, 3) or just say fuck it and fold.

[CBT 1285]

It's obviously 1 and not because "fuck it". It's because you have a very strong hand even with a K exposed. 

Would you not care as much if it was someone else's K that was exposed? Because its the same thing. The dealer's mistake is just as likely to give you a strong hand as it is to give you a weak one. Maybe now you flop flush over flush and hold. But if you had KK, you flop a set and lose to a flush. Or whatever. That shit evens out over the long run.  

[TXSooner518 2438]

24 minutes ago, CBT said:

It's obviously 1 and not because "fuck it". It's because you have a very strong hand even with a K exposed. 

Would you not care as much if it was someone else's K that was exposed? Because its the same thing. The dealer's mistake is just as likely to give you a strong hand as it is to give you a weak one. Maybe now you flop flush over flush and hold. But if you had KK, you flop a set and lose to a flush. Or whatever. That shit evens out over the long run.  

absolutely this. huge LOL at folding AKs first in because a king was exposed. It affects your calculation to some degree if there are reraises, or if you are facing a brick flop and a bet, you know you have one less out (though I think most people over-account for this. Assuming there are 8 folded hands, you know your two cards, and 3 blanks on the board, there are 19 unknown cards in the muck/burn, and 38 unknown cards in the stub. So, on average, there is one king in the muck/burns, and two kings in the stub when we hold AKs. The fact that we know there is a king in the muck doesn't change our calculation that much. Without seeing it, you estimate 2 kings in the stub, now 1.3 kings in the stub, so we are going to decrease our outs by 0.67.  Matters in a close call, otherwise not really.

[TXSooner518 2438]

This just sums up my cash game experience every time. Folds to mouthbreather who limps off a stack of $80. I go $10 in S.B. with AA he call. Flop T36 I bet $10 he call. Turn 7 I bet $20 he jam $59 total obv I call. He has 54o. Yes of course open limp and then call 12.5% of your stack pre with offsuit 5 hi.

I don’t understand how people just run normally I swear to fuck.

[TXSooner518 2438]

Same JimBob limps I go $10 with AThh, guy behind looks like he wants to raise but calls with $600 back, JimBob calls. Flop 874 one heart. JB checks, I check, guy bets $30, JimBob jams $100, I fold, other guy calls. JimBob has 53hh, other guy QhQs. 2 of the 7 hearts in the deck roll off.

[Lurch 5931]

The beauty of cash is you just rebuy. You simply want to play with JimBob as long as he has cash in front of him. What’s even better is when he sucks out on some other sap so now you have those chips to chase too

[Lurch 5931]

And re the face up K... option 1 because when the flop comes QJT and everyone on the table laughs I’m gonna bank

[TXSooner518 2438]

The beauty of cash is you just rebuy. You simply want to play with JimBob as long as he has cash in front of him. What’s even better is when he sucks out on some other sap so now you have those chips to chase too

Theoretically yep. He just doubled with 44 on AK4. He bought $110 an hour ago and now has $650-700. I’m gonna get in good against him and get stacked off.

[CBT 1285]

DIDN'T YOU KNOW BOY? HEARTS ARE HOT TOOOONIIIIIIITE!!!! /JimBob

Edited July 24, 2019 by CBT

[TXSooner518 2438]

Theoretically yep. He just doubled with 44 on AK4. He bought $110 an hour ago and now has $650-700. I’m gonna get in good against him and get stacked off.

Guy between us busted and I moved to his direct left “so I can see the board better.”

[TXSooner518 2438]

.

[TXSooner518 2438]

JimBob is off away from the table so I had to fill the role. We have two big blinds in the hand, guy goes $10, I call on button with Q8cc, BB call. Flop 665 one club. Opener $12. I really don’t think he likes the flop, lots of good turn cards, call. Turn 2c. He $20, I debate a raise but just call. River Jc. He ck calls $45 with what he says was AA. Weeeeeee. This side is so much more fun!

[TXSooner518 2438]

JimBob racked up. I am also, up $116. Time to get sloppy and play the 7p donkfest.

[Lurch 5931]

Always funny when JimBob racks up and the whole table quits.

Not so funny when you rack up and the whole table quits.

[TexArcher 38076]

5 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

alright. I was waiting on Lurch and Sooner's response so here is the story.

happens on Saturday night.

$5 straddle hand, I'm 2nd to act. 

Dealer flat out flips over my very first card,  there wasnt any wind, it didnt bounce off of something, it didnt slide and catch air and flip.

The card is pretty much flipped over as its coming out of his hand.

Card is the Kh.    Well that sucks, but OK, Ive been getting K3o, K5o a lot, so I assume the 2nd card is going to be similar.

Lets see the 2nd card......  ANNNNNNNDDDDDDDD    2nd card is the Kd.    

Typical.

replacement card is...... Ad.

so, at that moment, I go from KK to AKs, but I now know that one of my big outs is off the table and my hand, while strong, has been downgraded.

new UTG folds.   You have AKs no voluntary money in the pot and now have to act.  You know a big out is off the table.  what do you do?

So, based on the thread responses.  I know Lurch and Sooner are probably playing it like any other hand.  

but curious what the rest of you want to do here.   choices are 1) raise anyway because fuck it, its AK, 2) limp and see how the rest of the table acts, 3) or just say fuck it and fold.

You still raise because you still have AK suited. 

All the burned K does is give you 5 outs to flop TPTK instead of 6.  Your odds are a tiny bit better to flop the nut flush or nut flush draw.  And you can still take it down with a c-bet on a lot of flops.

You have enough equity PF that knowing one K is gone doesn't ding it nearly enough to change the way you play it.

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

So the cool part of the story is the poker gods made sweet irony of my decision.

obviously the board is calling me a donk. and I have to accept it, but my reasoning is,

#1 while I know the dealer didnt purposely fuck up, the fact that it was 100% a dealer fuckup made me fucking furious that the dealer managed to fuck up me getting pocket kings, there is some irrationality in my decision process here. I know it, I embrace it.

#2 playing out of position, yes its AK, but as I said, all this decision making happened while I was fuming.

#3 as previously mentioned I really have a bad history playing replacement hands and that also played a part.

#4 even with the new hand, losing one of my outs plays a part as well, unless I am in position, or in a tourney i usually fold my hand when one of my outs is exposed before I act.

so yes,  those 4 things, with #1 and #3 being the main factors, this donkey gave up on the hand, flashed it to the guy to my right and folded because I was just pissed.

I will stop here for the laughing to finish.

 

but hey, dont worry, there is a hell of a story to come.

 

a few players limp, and the straddle checks. 

 

flop is  KQJ   2 diamonds. 

so yeah. I folded top top with a nut flush draw.  LET THE PUNISHMENT AND RIDICULE COMMENCE!

I dont remember any of the rest of the action of the hand, because I have accepted my fate as a moron.

I think the straddle bets $10 and gets at least one caller.    There isnt much action because the guy on my right who I showed my hand to is losing his mind and basically (without saying it directly) pretty much tells the table I folded a huge part of that board.  Im trying to tell him to calm down there are people in the hand, but hes drunk and just losing it. 

whether it checked around or was bet/ called doesnt matter, the poker gods complete the punishment of the fold.

 

anyone wanna guess what the turn card was?

 

 

 

 

if you guessed the Td for the royal flush.... you would be right.   

I hang my head in shame, the guy to my right basically fucks up the whole hand for everyone else because hes yelling holy shit.

No idea who won the pot, it checked around to the river. 

So I still get to say, Ive never gotten a royal flush in my life (not even a 1 card one).  Ive had a K high straight flush at least twice, once with 2 cards once with 1. 

 

<------  Dumbass.

 

 

[Lurch 5931]

Like rain on your wedding day

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

btw the absolutely terrible playing at APP continues for those of you looking to tag some whales.

I was on the table, but not participating in this hand, but it exemplifies the craziness of the $1/2 game.  max buyin $300. 

Villain 1 is button, is a no fold em player, any pair on the flop, hes going to call you down to the river unless you make it $300 and there are 4 overcards, or 4 to a flush on the board. Hes playing with more than $800 in front.

Villain 2 is BB, shes also a call any pair on the flop kind of player, you cant bluff her but she will pay you off if you have a good hand. Shes got about $450 in front

Villain 3 is a live straddle and very spewy in terms of random raises and making jaw droppingly bad calls.   15 mins ago he had over $2000 in front of him, now hes got  just less than $700, about $400 of that missing amount went to Villain 1. That extra $900 left the table after 3 other players that won against 3 and left. 

1 $5 limper before button acts, button makes it $25.

BB  calls.   Straddle calls, other limper calls. 

Flop is 9s-6c-3c,   Bb leads out for $25 .  Straddle calls the 25.   other player folds. 

Button takes an inordinate amount of time, and actually gets time called on him by the straddle.   Which I guess is what button was waiting for, he shoves covering both players.

BB  SNAP, and I mean SNAP calls.  Straddle takes a while and then calls.  

Dealer says they will deal with the chips after the hand to see who gets what. 

turn is a 4x,  river is a Kx.  Flush draw (if there was one, misses).   Straddle immediately says he won

and the hands?   

Button has 9-9 for nuts on the flop.   BB tables 4-5 of hearts for the missed open ender (and a snap call there as well???).... and straddle shows 5-7 of diamonds, having called both shoves and almost $650 effective into a less than $1300 pot with just a double gutter without any clubs in his hand.  And that boys and girls is how you scoop an $1800 pot.

 

table got rearranged a bit later, and I am now between Villain 1 and 3. I've been getting crushed, down to $116 when I play this hand.

Villain 3 has lost another chunk of his massive pot to other players who left, he makes it $10 to go in EP, I just call with AQo in MP, and Villain 3 makes it $22 as CO.   

Villain 1 calls, and I really think I am ahead and decide its time to shove here.    Villain 3 takes a bit and finally calls.  Villain 1 snap calls.

flop is random low cards 5 x x.  both of them check, Turn is a T, both check, river is an ace... they both check.   Villain 3 had called with QJo.  Villain 1 snap called almost $100 more with Q5cc ??? and until the fucking river, was ahead.  Its past midnight on a worknight, and the system shows me out of time anyway, so  I take the pot, then I leave with $45 more than I got onto the table with. 

[Lurch 5931]

$150 Deep Stack at bestbet jax. 88 players.

 

We’re down to 11, paying 9. Avg stack is 96k.

 

Our table is 6 handed. 1200/2400/2400

 

Solid reg HJ (35k) limps. CO folds. I (45k) also limp A5dd from BTN. Usually I would raise to 10k, but am very weary of the blinds. Both have 200k and are solid and aggressive. I’m looking forward to getting to ten players so we can redraw for final table seats as these two on my left is death.

 

SB folds and BB quickly makes it 7k. HJ calls and I call. 24k pot.

 

Td 8d 6c.

 

BB opens 10k. HJ shoves his last 28k.

 

I have 38k.

 

Call/Shove/Fold?

 

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

the disgusting part is you are getting more than 3-1 to make the call. 

If I am reading right you are still 2 players from the money. even if BB has it, HJ going out still means you have to sweat another player

the only hand you are really in deep shit against is 9-7dd. 

TT, 88 & 66 are all roughly 25% for you to win.

9-7 of anything other than dd and you are more than 33% to win. 

 

Im a fucking pussy and would fold. but you dont win a tourney by being timid at the end. 

I really think the right move is to call the 28k, and if BB  over shoves, make a crying call for the rest of your stack. otherwise, if you call and lose the 28k, you still have 10k left and have 3 deals where you can shove before you are BB again. 

 

[deech 2297]

Your limp invites a squeeze play near the money bubble from a bigger stack.  He could be squeezing and then leading out with a wide range.   I would raise preflop.

IMHO, if you are folding your nut flush draw here with the pot odds you are getting b/c money bubble considerations, then you should just fold and not limp.  I don't mind Aus play in an attempt to backdoor money, but...............

So I jam and try to get the 10K in before a diamond comes on the turn or a scare card for the BB.

Edited July 29, 2019 by deech

[Lurch 5931]

I decide they both have me beat currently, but I likely have 12 outs w 9 diamonds and 3 aces. BB seemed likely (but not certain) to call my jam, so I figured 50% to win 110k for 38k jam. I don’t recall considering ICM, honestly.

BB curse tanks and makes a hesitant call w ATo. HJ has JTo. Neither has a diamond, but my Ace outs are gone, so only 9 outs giving me 35% rather than 50% to win.

No diamonds run out and BB takes it all.

[TXSooner518 2438]

Just fold pre the first time. We are in the ICM handcuffs, where we aren't the very shortest stacks, but we also are short enough that even doubling doesn't give us average stack. It's not as pronounced in a tourney like this where the payjumps start immediately after making the money, as opposed to a massive field tourney where a whole lot of people all make the same money, but still it's important. 

When "solid" reg limps off a 12 BB stack, alarm bells should be going off that he might have a monster (when he tables JTo, we should re-evaluate our solid read, limp-calling JTo off a 12 BB stack two off the bubble is really really bad).  In addition, a huge value of a hand like A5s is its implied odds, meaning we can win a huge pot when we get flush over flush. But we are capped at what we can win, not only by our sub-20 BB stack, but by the limper's 12 BB stack. 

I don't hate calling the 2nd time, b/c BB sized it too small (another really bad play by him to raise less than 3x over two limpers when he's going to be out of position and dislike well over half of the flops, he should either check or raise larger, depending on what his read of y'all limping is), but again we just aren't deep enough to be calling so much of our stack pre with A5, esp when our key needs to be chip preservation at this exact stage of the tourney. We are going to hate most flops. We got a top 10% flop for our hand, and still aren't sure if we should get it in. Once we see the flop, I think we have to just hold our nose and go for it and look for a diamond. 

Generally, without the bubble considerations, I think raising to 4x with A5 when a "solid" 12BB stack limps is not good (he's trapping way too often if he isn't a loose passive fish, and I think raising to 4 of our less than 20 BB with A5 is not good. If we get jammed on now we have to call 35k to win 61k, which is a price that sucks to call off but also sucks to fold. 

Edited July 29, 2019 by TXSooner518

[Lurch 5931]

The JTo was certainly a surprise. This is an old black guy who is loved by everyone. Super nice and outgoing. In addition to $2/5, he plays these tourneys and I see him in a lot of the late stages of them. He doesn’t play a lot of hands and when he shows he usually has it. I assumed he was set mining pre.

Remember, too, we’re 6 handed, so everyone was probably a bit wider because of that. I know I was. The blinds were expensive and coming around quickly.

[TXSooner518 2438]

Wide aggression good, wide passivity bad. Quickly coming around blinds is another reason we can’t waste chips limp-calling JT or A5 esp 2 off the bubble. 6 handed, JT could jam and be fine. Fold also good. Limp-call for 1/4 stack pre nahhh.

[Lurch 5931]

$2/$2. Full table. Villains have $200.I have $400.

UTG+1 and UTG+2 plus to both limp.I raise to $12 with 88. Both call. $36 to flop.

T97 Rainbow. Checks to me. $20 both call. $96 pot

3. Checks through. (Second spade on board and I don’t have one)

6. No flush. UTG+1 $55 and UTG+2 calls. They each have $110ish behind. Pot now $205.

Do we min raise for half their stacks, shove, or something in between?

[Lurch 5931]

(That was yesterday)

Tonight, $2/2 full table.

3 limps to me in CO. I make it $15 w AQcc. BB and all limpers call. Oops. $75 pot

9c6c2h. Checks to me. I $35, two of the MP limpers call. $185 pot.

3d. First lady ($200 behind) checks. Second guy jams $41.

I have $85 left.

Fold/call/jam?

[po elvis 2079]

2 hours ago, Lurch said:

$2/$2. Full table. Villains have $200.I have $400.

UTG+1 and UTG+2 plus to both limp.I raise to $12 with 88. Both call. $36 to flop.

T97 Rainbow. Checks to me. $20 both call. $96 pot

3. Checks through. (Second spade on board and I don’t have one)

6. No flush. UTG+1 $55 and UTG+2 calls. They each have $110ish behind. Pot now $205.

Do we min raise for half their stacks, shove, or something in between?
 

anything you do will look like you have the straight. probably raise $55 and hope they have to see it for so cheap.

Quote

(That was yesterday)

Tonight, $2/2 full table.

3 limps to me in CO. I make it $15 w AQcc. BB and all limpers call. Oops. $75 pot

9c6c2h. Checks to me. I $35, two of the MP limpers call. $185 pot.

3d. First lady ($200 behind) checks. Second guy jams $41. 

I have $85 left.

Fold/call/jam?

call.

[TXSooner518 2438]

 

4 hours ago, Lurch said:

$2/$2. Full table. Villains have $200.I have $400.

UTG+1 and UTG+2 plus to both limp.I raise to $12 with 88. Both call. $36 to flop.

T97 Rainbow. Checks to me. $20 both call. $96 pot

3. Checks through. (Second spade on board and I don’t have one)

6. No flush. UTG+1 $55 and UTG+2 calls. They each have $110ish behind. Pot now $205.

Do we min raise for half their stacks, shove, or something in between?
 

I would either jam or just call. I think their call range to a raise is really inelastic, especially with you raising over 2 people who put money in. You just are going to have it always. So now the question is, are they players who will ever call worse than a chop?  If so, jam. If no, just call, as we are just losing money by jamming if they never call worse than an 8, since we get stacked off when they have the rare J8. It feels super nitty to just call, but there are times when we have the best hand 95% of the time, but raising is still bad. They have to call worse or fold better for raising to make us money. This is just a really hard hand/board to make money with a raise, esp over 2 players.

2 hours ago, Lurch said:

(That was yesterday)

Tonight, $2/2 full table.

3 limps to me in CO. I make it $15 w AQcc. BB and all limpers call. Oops. $75 pot

9c6c2h. Checks to me. I $35, two of the MP limpers call. $185 pot.

3d. First lady ($200 behind) checks. Second guy jams $41.

I have $85 left.

Fold/call/jam?

I would jam to help possibly clear up some outs. For example if first lady folds A6hh, we gain two outs (and maybe win the whole pot unimproved if second guy just has a draw). If she has KTcc, we either get the rest of her money if she calls (unless she hits her six outs), or she folds and we now don't lose on river kings or tens. 

[Lurch 5931]

I jam first hand and they both fold. Second guy really didn’t want to.

Second hand I call turn, river is Kc. She check folds to my jam.

Feel like I missed out on both. Min raise first hand maybe gets me a call. Shove turn on second hand definitely gets called as she said she only folded because of the club.

[TXSooner518 2438]

What hand are you ever minraising hand 1 with that isn’t an 8? Honestly I’d be more likely to call a jam than a minraise.

 

4 straight and 4 flush boards are just hard to extract value unless your opp is a total mouthbreather. Put it this way you bet Kc on a board of Qc Tc 7c 3c 2d. Another guy calls. Third guy minraises. How happy are you?

 

Also, wtf did she call turn with them fold river instead of call $40 to win $350 goddamn

[justhookit 4191]

Damn this thread makes me miss the 1/2 on the gambling boat that used to run out of Port A.

 

[TXSooner518 2438]

Damn this thread makes me miss the 1/2 on the gambling boat that used to run out of Port A.
 

Hahaha yessssss. Saw a dude there have about a $90 stack, limps for $2, it gets raised and 3bet behind him to $55, he flats the $55, then check folds flop.

Also another time they were playing 5/10 limit. One dude was bitching literally the entire time saying limit isn’t poker and omg everyone just calls every bet to the end and no one folds etc (hint: that’s a very easy game to beat but you don’t play the same strategy as NLHE).

Anyway, he raises up AT of hearts, gets 6 callers as usual (I think a couple of slot players came over and called just because). He flops the nut flush. So how do you play the nut flush against 6 opponents who will “call every bet to the end and never fold”? If you said check the flop and flatcall the turn, you win the same prize he did: a much much much smaller pot than you should have had.

[VolenteHawk 495]

12 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

If so, jam. If no, just call, as we are just losing money by jamming if they never call worse than an 8, since we get stacked off when they have the rare J8. It feels super nitty to just call, but there are times when we have the best hand 95% of the time, but raising is still bad. They have to call worse or fold better for raising to make us money. This is just a really hard hand/board to make money with a raise, esp over 2 players.

This is a great point that shouldn’t get lost in the single hand analysis. I had a buddy jam the 2nd nuts to bounce out of a WSOP event like 10 years ago when I still really played poker. I don’t remember the details today, but he was a pretty good player that just couldn’t digest the idea that his river jam is ONLY called by one hand. He couldn’t fathom that I wouldn’t have liked the raise even in a cash game and that I completely despised it in a tourney still relatively deep.

 

Edited August 3, 2019 by VolenteHawk

[Lurch 5931]

It’s a delicate balance, because you also want to get value as much as possible. Certainly easier to lay down in tourney, but I n cash, I’m virtually never giving my opponents quads or a straight flush for example. If they have it and I have a boat, congrats to them, they’re getting paid.

I’d say the tendency to not bet river for value out of fear costs many players more in the long run than betting it and occasionally losing to a bigger monster.

[TXSooner518 2438]

25 minutes ago, Lurch said:

It’s a delicate balance, because you also want to get value as much as possible. Certainly easier to lay down in tourney, but I n cash, I’m virtually never giving my opponents quads or a straight flush for example. If they have it and I have a boat, congrats to them, they’re getting paid.

I’d say the tendency to not bet river for value out of fear costs many players more in the long run than betting it and occasionally losing to a bigger monster.

Agree with all of this for sure, and I'm working on adding more thin river value bets as well. I think there is a difference in betting vs. raising vs. 3betting though as where there is value to be had, and the various textures. For example, I would always raise Kh5h if it went bet-call on Jh 7h Td 4h 3c.  Would very rarely raise Kh5d over a bet-call on Jh 7h Td 4h 3h. If it checks to me, I am 100% betting of course in either hand.

Also, a key ability is the ability to bet-fold when betting thinner for value. 

[TonyTexas 10534]

Interesting tourney concluded yesterday in London. The Triton Higher roller was a £1,050,000 entry. Field was 27 businessmen/amateurs, each of which invited a pro. Top prize was £19,000,000 ($23,000,000). It was won by a Chinese businessman who came back from being an extreme shortstack over NL tourney heavyweights Kenney, Fishwick and Smith.

[VolenteHawk 495]

On 8/3/2019 at 10:40 AM, Lurch said:

It’s a delicate balance, because you also want to get value as much as possible. Certainly easier to lay down in tourney, but I n cash, I’m virtually never giving my opponents quads or a straight flush for example. If they have it and I have a boat, congrats to them, they’re getting paid.

I’d say the tendency to not bet river for value out of fear costs many players more in the long run than betting it and occasionally losing to a bigger monster.

Yeah, I’m specifically talking about hands where it’s bet into you on the river, the decision is call or raise, and due to the nature of the board you’re practically playing your hand face up. Sooner’s 4 to a flush example with a K is a good one, your straight with pocket 8s is a good one. In these situations, my contention is that the raise is -EV (against reasonable players) b/c we’ve sliced their calling range down to monsters.

 

[October sky 61]

Is anyone headed over to Shreveport for the Southern Poker Open this week?

Edited August 6, 2019 by October sky

[CBT 1285]

On 8/4/2019 at 9:21 AM, TonyTexas said:

Interesting tourney concluded yesterday in London. The Triton Higher roller was a £1,050,000 entry. Field was 27 businessmen/amateurs, each of which invited a pro. Top prize was £19,000,000 ($23,000,000). It was won by a Chinese businessman who came back from being an extreme shortstack over NL tourney heavyweights Kenney, Fishwick and Smith.

I've enjoyed watching this. The 100k final table is broadcasting now.

 

 

 

[Lurch 5931]

Sit at $2/2 w $200. 6 handed

 

Second hand. CO limps, BTN makes it $12. I decide to just call w AQcc. Usually I’m reraising here but am new and don’t know any of these players. BB folds. $35 pot

 

As5s3c. Chk, chk, BTN ($400 behind) makes it $20. We both call. $95 pot.

 

Jc. Chk, chk, BTN makes it $35. I raise to $70 which is what CO has left. CO folds, BTN calls. $235 pot.

 

5c. I’m not real sure what to do here. I want to get it all in of course, but think a shove may induce a fold if he has AK. I go with $60. He tanks then counts my remaining chips before just calling. Folds face down so not sure what he had.

 

Think I should have shoved?

 

 

[CBT 1285]

As played yea, shove. You've got 120ish left and 235 in the pot.  edit: the more I think about it, the more I think your bet size is fine. What is BTN checking flop, and calling a x/r with that he then wants to call a bet on the river? He probably had a worse A, JK, QJ, JT or can't fold KK, QQ, TT. is he calling it off with those hands?

But definitely want to 3! pre here unless you have a good read BTN is a rock OR if CO has more money behind and you want to keep him in. 

I'm also leading turn 3/4 pot fwiw. I'm afraid it checks through again. I don't love the x/r unless you had a good read on  BTN.

Edited August 7, 2019 by CBT

[Lurch 5931]

It didn’t check through on flop. BTN bet $20 into $35 and we both called

[TXSooner518 2438]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

Sit at $2/2 w $200. 6 handed

Second hand. CO limps, BTN makes it $12. I decide to just call w AQcc. Usually I’m reraising here but am new and don’t know any of these players. BB folds. $35 pot

As3s5c. Chk, chk, BTN ($400 behind) makes it $20. We both call. $95 pot.

Jc. Chk, chk, BTN makes it $35. I raise to $70 which is what CO has left. CO folds, BTN calls. $235 pot.

5s. I’m not real sure what to do here. I want to get it all in of course, but think a shove may induce a fold if he has AK. I go with $60. He tanks then counts my remaining chips before just calling. Folds face down so not sure what he had.

Think I should have shoved?

Did you make a flush and typo a suit?  I don't think he is folding AK on this board for a less than half-pot shove on the river. 

I think pre is fine, just calling flop is good, I think lots of people raise this flop here, but you just drive out hands we beat, and get stacked always when we are beat. I don't like the turn, I would either call or jam. Minraising looks strong. If CO has exactly $70, I'd call, hope he jams, BTN flats, and then I jam over the top. 

As played, jam river if we made a flush, check-decide if spade flush got there instead. If we made flush betting over half our stack looks at least as strong as jamming with the negative aspect of we lose $40 when he calls with worse (very very few hands he's calling $60 but not $100 into $235 IMO).

[Lurch 5931]

Sorry! 5c on river for flush

[TXSooner518 2438]

3 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Sorry! 5c on river for flush

[CBT 1285]

sorry I can't read, ignore post.