2019 Poker run gooder or die thread

[WBT 20672]

2 hours ago, Lurch said:

Sorry! 5c on river for flush

Thought I must have missed something.  This version with the 5c on the flop and another 5c on the river makes more sense 😀

[Lurch 5931]

Dammit. Fixed.

 

Pretty shitty session which included AsAc cracked on a KsQsJs flop that gave villain flush and couldn’t catch up, then flopping top set on J62 letting it check through, unknowingly giving villain (T9) odds to chase his straight when 8 hit turn and then let him suck me in when 7 rivered.

 

[deech 2297]

Nothing worse than coming to a casino midweek and then all they spread is 4-8 limit 

[CBT 1285]

Buy in for $1k but make them give you all white chips. Then don't fold. EZ game. 

[Chewbacca 7787]

1 hour ago, deech said:

Nothing worse than coming to a casino midweek and then all they spread is 4-8 limit 

They don't have Bravo where you live?  Fuck 4-8 limit.  Might as well be bingo.

[TXSooner518 2438]

24 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

They don't have Bravo where you live?  Fuck 4-8 limit.  Might as well be bingo.

Totally disagree!  4/8 is fun especially with some booze, and can be quite profitable if you actually adjust instead of just playing NL strategy and complaining that everybody chases (see my above cruise ship story for what not to do). 

[TexArcher 38076]

I was similarly disappointed in Laughlin when all they had was 4/8 limit.  I used to play a ton of limit on Party Poker before switching to NL, but it had been many years and those stakes are bullshit, right?  The first night, I sat with $100 and got up with $525.  The second night, ran $100 up to $370.  Roughly 5 hours each.

And Harrah's in Lake Charles used to run a 3/6/12, where the river bets could be $6 or $12.  That allowed for some bluffing when a third suit hit and the guy who'd been leading bet another $6, I raised to $18, "I know you got it," fold.  $18 into a pot that's $60-100 and it works half the time?  

So, yeah, I'm pro-limit at a casino with the local "regs" calling raises with any two sooted or A5 but folding 65o on the button after a limp train.  I'm a little surprised none of the local card houses are doing $4/8 to try to bring in more curious types.  I know a lot of people who would play that knowing it would take a while to lose $100, but they absolutely will not sit on a NL table even with a short stack $100 knowing it could be gone on one hand.  And what happens when Mr Casual Player gets some cards at limit and turns his $100 into $200 or $250?  He might feel his oats a bit and move over to try NL with his "house money," and good for the rest of us.

Edited August 10, 2019 by TexArcher

[Lurch 5931]

5 hours into a $2/2 session and I’m the big stack w $600. Decide it’s the final orbit.

Second to last hand, I open UTG+1 to $15 w AhQh. Get three callers. I fold on a 6h5c2s flop when two others get frisky. Shame because turn and river are hearts and my flush would have taken it down. Oh well.

Final hand, I open UTG to $15 w AcAh. You know where this is going.

UTG+1 ($115) calls. BTN ($350) makes it $55. SB calls all-in with her last $40. I 4bet to $150. UTG+1 says he’s priced in and puts his last $100 in. BTN grimaces and then shoves and I toss in a chip and flip the rockets up. $850 final pot for the night!

QJ8 rainbow. No one looks excited.

3. Good card.

5. Also what you want to see here.

They all fold! Holy shit! A final hand Aces 4-ways wasn’t cracked!

(BTN says Kings, btw)

[CBT 1285]

That’s not possible.

[Lurch 5931]

We were all stunned.

[Lurch 5931]

110 player daily $150 NLH tourney

Down to 55 and we have avg stack of 23k at 300/600/600.

I open UTG to 1500 w KK. UTG+1 (young Asian dude w 15k) calls. BTN (old white reg w 40k) makes it 4500. Folds to me.

What do you do?

[dirtonia 269]

Shove!

[Bookman 4642]

Yeah I'm shoving there.

[Lurch 5931]

So let’s talk about that option. What hands is he calling our shove with? What is he folding? Consider him an experienced, competent tourney player.

[Lurch 5931]

I’d say his range for BTN reraising in this situation is 99+, JTs+, AQo+

[CBT 1285]

Then we are destroying that range. And we are too shallow to do anything but shove. Yea sometimes he has AA and we lose and sometimes we are sooner and he has AK and we lose, but it’s hugely +EV to shove here.

[Lurch 5931]

Of that range, what do you think he’s calling a shove with, for half his stack.

 

[CBT 1285]

JJ+, AK? Although it seems like burning money to 3!/f TT and AQ there. Given odds/stack sizes/and even giving the button a conservative 4! calling range, KK is a shove. 

[Lurch 5931]

Agree JJ+, AKo+. Maybe he even folds JJ.

Do we factor in UTG+1 here? He probably calls my initial bet w 66-TT, KQs+, AQo+, but jams JJ+. Given that, there’s really nothing he will call my 4bet jam with.

[CBT 1285]

Since we have KK here, I don't care about UTG+1. He's just putting in some nice dead money.

In other spots good players can flat super strong here looking to back raise. But you'd need a good read and a weaker hand to consider something besides shoving. 

[Lurch 5931]

I know I’m dominating UTG+1, and am only concerned about AA, AQ+ from BTN, and of course those only when an Ace hits the flop. I decide to call to get more chips from UTG+1 and then see how each respond should an Ace flop. 15k pot

7d 7h 4h. Pretty solid flop for me. However, I now have to protect against flush draw as I don’t have Kh. I have to donk bet and put out 9k. UTG+1 folds and BTN jams.

I call and he has AA.

This is one of those hands you overanalyze on the long drive home. My gut was to jam pre, but I talked myself into trying to milk it for more with the call. What I didn’t consider was a third option of min 4betting to 8k. If BTN had then jammed over that, could I ever fold KK? I think a lot of these guys could fold QQ and AK to a 4bet. Would his jam over a 4bet pretty much tell me he has AA?

[CBT 1285]

I don't like flatting with UTG+1 behind us. I don't really like it being OOP either. 

I don't think we can put in 35% of our stack and fold QQ or AK without a super duper read. With KK...I just can't. Sometimes hand just play themselves, especially with less than 40bbs. 

[Lurch 5931]

Check the structure of the tourney on page 5
http://www.bestbetjax.com/wp-content/uploads/JAX-structures-August-2019.pdf

How do you approach this, if at all? I’m not registered and usually just skip these as they look gimmicky.

[deech 2297]

I guess I underthink things.   If I lose KK to AA, so be it.  

[TXSooner518 2438]

 

How do you approach this, if at all? I’m not registered and usually just skip these as they look gimmicky.

 

 

What is it a satellite to? Basically you should rebuy whenever possible. You’re paying $100 for a starting stack, then you can buy starting stacks for $20 each. So rebuy when you sit down, play aggressive but not stupid, and rebuy every time you get down to start stack (I assume you can rebuy every time you have 2500 or less). Take the double rebuy at break regardless of your stack. Run good.

 

On the KK hand, I think minclicking is the worst option because we are screaming our hand is nutted without getting full value. When we jam, our opponents can do things like “put us on AK” and call off worse pairs.

 

It’s sliiiiiightly bigger than I would wanna jam, so I don’t dislike the call quite as much as CBT, but I’m trapping there, not looking to fold. The problem is sometimes we end up losing value (opp has JJ or QQ and would stack off pre but a K or A comes so they fold) or folding the best hand (3b cbets an A hi flop with JJ etc). Also sometimes the caller calls the 4k with 55 and blasts a set in our eye. Of course also sometimes the caller calls with AJ and we get all their money postflop on J hi board.

 

You’re gonna need a huge huge read to fold KK pre with under 40 bigs (without weird ICM situation or a satellite or whatever).

 

I def hate going 8k and then folding. At that point we are getting well over 2 to 1 with KK pre. You’re gonna have to literally show me two aces for me to fold.

 

If the hand worked out instead where he went 1500, we went 4, then he jammed, I’m still calling 99.999% but it’s at least a discussion. There are players that would only 4b jam AA there. Those players are very rare and we need to be extremely certain.

 

The problem is when we aren’t deep the price is pretty good and it doesn’t take much to make it where we have to call. We win 18% of the time against AA. Even tho we hold two kings, if his range is KK+, he still has KK 14% of the time (6 combos of AA, one of KK). We have almost 25% equity against KK+. If you add AK and/or QQ to his range, we just can’t fold.

 

I don’t really like the 9k lead on flop. We are milking, let them bet. We are letting BTN fold his AQ or AK for free there. What percent of their ranges are heart draws? Very small. And if one has a heart draw, a heart only turns about 1/5 of the time. Plus, if one has a heart draw they will likely bet it (BTN will virtually always, guy in between less often) and then we can check-jam to get his dead money C-bets, and he may shrug pot committed call with hands like 99 bc maybe you are drawing. Also if they have hearts they are just gonna call the 9k anyway. Say you get a call and a heart turns. We really check folding KK here in a 33k pot with 10k behind, so getting over 4 to 1 if he jams, with 4 boat outs?

[Lurch 5931]

It was a satellite into a mega satellite to a big tourney later this month. Thanks for the strategy, I’ll give it a go next time.

[Lurch 5931]

78 player mega satellite into two tourneys in a series starting tomorrow. 4.5 hours in and we’re down to 18, with 16 getting seats ($910 value) and 17th getting $135 of their $230 buyin back.

We’re at two tables, with shortest stack several seats to my right with 10k. I’m not much deeper w 13k after the blinds of 800/1600/1600 just passed. I don’t think anyone at the other table is as short as us.

Shorty open shoves in MP. I look down at AQdd. I don’t think I can fold this here so I shove. Super deep stack SB quickly snap calls. Oh no.

MP has A8o, but SB has AKo. Damn it all.

Queen in the window gives me hope, but it’s quickly followed by a K and I can’t recover.

While MP gets to make a quick exit, I get to stand around waiting for my $135 while the other 16 party it up.

Nut kick.

[TXSooner518 2438]

Booooo. Yeah I stone bubbled a mega in Tunica years ago. 56 left, 55 $1700 seats awarded. 56th paid $112 or so. I am down to a big blind, guy opens, I have AA. This is actually super close but I call, he has 33 and binks. I had to wait 20 minutes to get my $112 sitting there with everyone celebrating just like that. Soooooo tilt.

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

been out of town a while, and only played 2 sessions recently. WTF play still alive and well at APP.

played Fri for 2 hours bought in for $200, cashed out for $815,   $10 in tips so a nice +600  (which made even my last visit of -600).  several larger hands played, first big one was me in BB with 78cc, UTG has $202, (ive got him covered)  makes it $13, 3 callers before it comes to me and I complete,  flop is 7h-9h-7d. I check, UTG bets out $40, everyone else folds.  and I pause to figure out what I am going to do,  UTG then says, "you need to fold, I have it" which of course is exactly what I want to hear.  I banter back at him asking if I fold will he show, and he says no. i ask what if I shove? he says hes gonna snap call... so duh, i shove.   no snap call.   he takes forever and says, and I quote "well I put you on A7 so I have to call" hes got KQ hearts. uh, OK.  9d on the turn ends the drama, no river 9 to chop and I scoop. 

moved tables where I bluffed a kid with 4 bullets into a $200 pot. lost $100 on a call where I was good on the turn, but got beat by a double draw.  then the kid that I bluffed earlier  raises UTG to $8, there are 2 callers and I look down at A2ss on the button, I just call. flop is Qs-7s-A, he bets out $15, everyone folds, I call. turn is the Ts and he bets $75.  I am genuinely surprised he's led out here, especially for more than a pot bet.  I am trying to think what on earth he could have that would be able to actually call a raise here, and I just cant think of anything other than a set, or the made straight. and I think neither of those make a lead out bet that big. I just decide to call here, planning on shipping the river.  However, river is the Js, and kid checks to me.   I take a while before betting out $75..... kid snap calls with Ax8s...  so I take that down.  I dont think he could have called much more than that, although I think if i had made it $160-175 on the turn, he very well might have called. 

I get KK in late position where its a straddle pot and 4 limpers, I make it $35, and I get 3 callers. ok..... flop is K-2-2, checks around. turn is a T, putting a flush draw on the board. it checks to me again, and since these tables call with just about any fucking draw, I try the hyper value route of betting $20 giving anyone with a draw a reason to call.  They all fold....  that sucks, but it was a nice pot.  very next hand I get AA now in MP, in another staddle pot, 1 limper, I make it $40, get 2 callers behind me and the straddle to call.  I dont remember the flop at all, it  wasnt memorable, and not very coordinated. checks to me, I bet $80, everyone folds.   left soon after with the +600

Went today, was down about $75 early and got back a bit on 2 smaller pots before doubling up with KJss on the button when the HJ raises to $20, i call, 3 others call and the flop is K-2-2, it checks around to me and I make my stand and bet out $101. folds to the HJ who takes a while and shoves. Ive only got another $115 behind, so I snap call. he's got K9, comes T-T, and I take the pot.  Win another $150 with KK when I limp UTG,  then get a $12 raise and reraise to  $30 on my left, folds to me, I make it $75, both call, flop is 7 high, I bet $100 both fold. 

and the WTF hand of the night goes like this, 9 handed and 4 of us have $500+ in front of us.  Im the only one with a big stack that plays this hand. I am on the button with KK.  3 limpers before crazy asian lady who keeps making it $8 or $12 every time she comes in with makes it $8.  HJ call, CO calls, I see the KK and I make it $40. it folds to one of the tightest ladies at the table, the 3rd limper, she goes all in $41 total, crazy asian lady says fuck it, and shoves herself for $79 total. HJ folds,  CO only has $24 total so hes like, fuck it, I call.  I obviously call the $79.  I show the KK and the whole table groans.  but have no fear, they are called ace magnets for a reason.

As-9s-2x, turn is Ts, river is 8s..... I of course, do not have a spade.   $24 boy shows Q6s to take the main pot. 

Tight lady who bet out $41 shows AQ. so it looks like she is gonna win the 2nd pot of $51 total, and I will take the 3rd pot.......

until crazy asian lady goes, oh shit, I have a spade.... and she flips over the power hand of the night.   3s 5d.   

yes boys and girls, she shoved all in after a huge raise, and an all in right afterwards knowing she will have to show her hand with 3-5off and she takes down the 2 side pots worth $125. I know I want that call everytime, and Im not even mad at the AQ and Q6 hands because those kind of made sense based on the money out there.  But so perplexed by that move because it almost never wins (and as usual with me and side pots, I manage to lose the larger side pots when I am the massive fav) I do recover from that hand and win a few more smaller pots and leave +185 after another 2 hours of play. 

Edited August 19, 2019 by AUS-97HORN

[Lurch 5931]

In tourney, my last 5 hands

 

AK lose to J9 (huge pot)

AT lose to AJ (same guy)

AJ lose to 99 (another huge pot)

AA UTG (no callers)

AJ fold in BB

 

Went from big stack to struggling in five hands.

 

[Lurch 5931]

Odds of an Ace in 5 consecutive hands 1:11,602

But I’m not bitter

[Lurch 5931]

Looking forward to playing my first live heads-up tourney tomorrow

http://www.bestbetjax.com/wp-content/uploads/Event-4-5.pdf

I’ve played a ton of heads-up online and feel like I’m pretty solid, but I’m sure live will play much different.

I usually like to start soft w just limping the SB to test their aggressiveness while it’s cheap, then start raising almost every SB once the blinds go up if they proved to be passive earlier. I can often get a 2:1 stack advantage before they start calling bullshit and push back, and by then I can afford to patiently find a spot to trap them.

The structure here is unusual for me, though, as it’s a best-of-3 against each opponent, presumably with the blinds going up uninterrupted despite completing one game and starting the next. So, my strategy for game 1 won’t be viable in game 2. I guess I’ll back off on the aggression just a bit for the starts of games 2&3 and take it up again when I get a bit of a chip lead

[CBT 1285]

Interesting, GLGL

[Lurch 5931]

I’ve been killing heads up on PokerStars this morning. Hope some of it translates

[TXSooner518 2438]

Super fun. GLGL!!

[Lurch 5931]

My default raise from SB will be to 2BBs w any TXo+, any connectors, any suited. With my top hands (pairs, broadways, suited aces and kings) I’ll 2.5 or 3BB (2.5 when chip structure allows for it). However to keep this from being too predictable, any of the top hands that are both red (1/4th of them) will be 2BB. Any of the very bottom of my playable range (generally where both cards are smaller than T) when both cards are black, I’ll 2.5 or 3BB them.

 

This should hopefully let me build bigger pots with stronger hands.

 

I’ll use the same philosophy to determine when to just call in BB when he raises from SB, vs 3Bet.

[BillyGoatHill 4312]

On 8/18/2019 at 7:42 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

crazy asian lady

Without a doubt, I bet (pun intended) that is Cindy....

Edited August 20, 2019 by BillyGoatHill

[Lurch 5931]

Won my first match 2-0. Took two solid hours, but I played well and controlled the match most of the way. Played a $2/5 pro that I’ve seen a ton of cash hands with, but never in our tourneys. Was really happy with the win as I would have favored him going in.

Second match was against another $2/5 reg, though I don’t think he’s a pro. 40ish Asian guy that’s usually too aggressive in the cash game and can be taken advantage of. He said he didn’t know what he was doing ... and then kicked my ass 2-0. He commented on my aggression early as apparently whoever he played in first match was passive. He seemed to adjust quickly and called me a ton more than the first dude. I caught him bluffing several times, but also ended up calling him light when he ran into big hands quite a few times.

Was a lot of fun, but a logistical nightmare for the house to run

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

8 hours ago, BillyGoatHill said:

Without a doubt, I bet (pun intended) that is Cindy....

I went back today and happened to play with her again, her name was something like eva, or ava.   although when i sat down she had about $650 in front of her. when she left, she left with almost $1900.  she won a pot that had 2 all ins pre for $90+ 100 total, that was called by 2 other players besides herself. 

the flop had something like 6-J-8, rainbow, where it checked to the button who bet out $150, she called that $150 and the 3rd guy then shoved for about $220 total. They both call, turn was the Jd, which put a flush draw on the board.  old guy checked, and Eva bet out $100. he snap called.   river came an offsuit 5 and Eva shoves for something like $170 and the old guy snap calls again.  she shows.... 4d-7d. for the rivered inside straight, along with the runner, runner flush chance.    the guy who shoved on the flop disgustedly shows KJ, the old guy shows................

..............................................

ATcc.   !!!!!   old fuck claimed he forgot his hand, and was playing the hand before and thought he had AJ, never bothered looking after all the bets and paid out an almost $700 mistake.  (the other 2 all ins both mucked as soon as they saw the straight, so no idea what they had) 

 

I didnt play well. bought in for $200, lost it all on an all in to the old man in the story above when I made it $30 to go pre flop on the button with AJdd.  There were 5 fucking callers, and it checked to me.  Ive only got $160 left and theres basically that amount in the pot, so I got it in bad on an A-2-5 rainbow board against A2. turn was 4d, so I caught 19 outs to not lose the pot on the river but missed them all.   I then bought back for $200  and almost immediately got AA UTG, I made it $20 to go, folded to the button who then made it $45,  folds back to me, and I decide to slow play it out of position against an aggressive player.  flop was 9c-4c-9x, I check and button hesitates for a second and shoves. I snap call, he says hes on a flush draw and asks to run it 3 times, I agree.   no club came in 6 cards so I doubled up.  I lost about $200 back on a bomb pot, added on for $100, and then won a few small hands.

after 2.5 hours, my last 4 hands that all cost me $15 to see the flop were 76 suited.   didnt come close on any of the 4 flops and said that was my queue to leave.   bought in for $505 total.  paid $10 for tip chips.... cashed out for $516.    sigh.    gave the $1 profit as a tip to the cashier. 

[Lurch 5931]

40ish heavyset white lady sits at our $2/2 table tonight and runs her $80 buyin to over $1k playing HORRIBLY. For several hours shes donk betting with nothing, getting called down only to catch a card on the river or win with a better nothing than the guys trying to take advantage of her terrible play. We all see what’s going on but her. Nevertheless, player after player falls victim to her and it’s becoming comical. I’m hardly playing any hands, just waiting to get it in with her with the goods.

Two limpers to me and I make it $15 on BTN w AcTh. She is in BB and snap calls, which she pretty much does every hand. One other caller and we go to flop. $45 pot

9c8c7h. Checks to me and I make it $25. Only she calls. $95 pot.

2c. She donks $55. I tank then shove my final $135. She snap calls the extra $80.

Kh. She fucking flips over KcQd. Brutal. I KNOW there’s no such thing as good luck and she has to come down to earth eventually, but damnit if I didn’t laugh while she did this too dozen other guys then still somehow let her get me too even when I played it perfectly!

[AUS-97HORN 11824]

very interesting article in Poker News that flies against normal perceived "correct close to bubble" procedure for tournaments

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/dont-blow-your-tournament-bubble-35171.htm

The lesson is clear: folding our way to a min-cash is nearly always more profitable than risking our cash.

There is a decent amount of math presented, but he does a pretty good job explaining the process.  The only difference is he used the 2018 tourneys as his example, which those were all standard ante tournaments rather than BB ante, which might change the math a small amount.

[CBT 1285]

I love poker.

 

 

 

I can't find a good video of it, but here is winopokers recording of it:

 

https://www.instagram.com/stories/winopoker/?hl=en

 

 

[po elvis 2079]

1 hour ago, CBT said:

I love poker.

 

 

 

I can't find a good video of it, but here is winopokers recording of it:

 

https://www.instagram.com/stories/winopoker/?hl=en

 

 

i can't imagine shoving $190k into $70k is a good play there.

[Lurch 5931]

It is if you think your opponent would call w any draws

[Lurch 5931]

I think we’ve discussed before but often these high stakes games play “terrible” to our $1/2 & $2/5 view of cash poker strategy. However, they tend to have a few whales that love to chase with little concern about odds while also thinking everyone is bluffing them. So, you see good players opening with shit hands because they know the payoff is huge when they hit a monster. You see bad players opening with shit hands because they see good players dong it. And you see tight players getting run over by cards they never put n the others range. Great TV, terrible poker!

[WBT 20672]

3 hours ago, po elvis said:

i can't imagine shoving $190k into $70k is a good play there.

He got the call so it was a good play

[deech 2297]

6 minutes ago, WBT said:

He got the call so it was a good play

He lost so it wasn't.  Similar level of logic applied to hand.

I can't fathom jamming top top there is for 2.5x pot is a positive ev play.  But maybe that's why I'm playing 1-3 and 2-5

[Lurch 5931]

Outcome has no bearing on whether a play was good or not. If he had high confidence guy was on a draw and that he’d call an all in, it was a good play.

[CBT 1285]

Rob Young may call it off with any Q also, I don't know. There are plenty scenarios where it's a good play. 

[TexArcher 38076]

 

5 hours ago, deech said:

I can't fathom jamming top top there is for 2.5x pot is a positive ev play.  But maybe that's why I'm playing 1-3 and 2-5

 

As with most things, it's read-dependent.

If hero knows villain would have raised flop rather than slowplaying a set or bottom two pair, and villain wouldn't have called the flop bet with A5 gutshot draw, then hero can pretty much bet turn with impunity.  And overbetting the pot on the turn can look like a steal and entice a call by a lower pair stuck on 5 outs, whereas a 1/2- or 3/4-pot bet looks like a value bet and is easier for some villains to get away from.

Poker boards often talk about EV as if it exists in a vacuum, but what matters is +/-EV against that guy on that night.  And it worked.  Great example of Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem: he got the other guy to make a mathematical mistake that he wouldn't have made if their cards had been face up.  The fact that the guy spiked his river doesn't change that.

Edited August 22, 2019 by TexArcher