2019 Poker run gooder or die thread

[Lurch 5,942]

The 2+2 thread
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/mike-postle-cheating-allegations-1753388/index32.html

[TXSooner518 2,440]

On 9/30/2019 at 8:28 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

played for about 3 hours today. bought in for 300, started off ok, climbed up to about $350 when I get KsQx as SB. 1 limper, decent reg makes it $15 from the CO.  folds to me.  I normally fold out of position, but he has been known to raise light.  I call, everyone else folds. Flop comes  T-x-x 2 spades, the x's are low cards.  I check, he checks, turn is Qs.  I check. He bets out $25.  I just call.  river is a low blank,  I check again,  and he takes a while and bets $35.    This really seems suspicious.   I was expecting a check or a bet of $60 or so based on his normal history with me.   My brain tells me to fold. but I call, and he shows AsQx.  sigh.  I deserved that.  

get to about $450 when I take 2 big hits, first is the decent reg from first hand makes it $22, I am on the button, there are FOUR callers of the $22 before I act.  I look down at JJ.

I know I need to bet large to get rid of the rando Ax Kx here, but I am also wary of the big starting bet,  I take a bit and make it $120. 

I figure thats big enough to chase off the rando's and if decent reg has it, hes gonna let me know.   he takes almost no time and calls, everyone else folds.  I know him enough to know hes not calling with AK here with all those folks to act behind.  so I completely shut it down, we check it through on a Q high board, he shows KK.     BTW if he had bet I had already decided to fold. 

interested in feedback on that one, with there already being $100 in the pot, should I have just made it $100 straight?   I *guess* I could just call there, but that seems like a terrible decision longterm when the flop comes  2 high broadway cards.   I dont think $60 is honestly enough to scare off the randos especially if the decent reg just calls there, we end up going 4-6 to the flop.  Maybe make it $80?   I am not mad about the raise, thats just a partial cooler combined with some terrible players calling big bets.   Just curious what everyone else thinks.

finally get T5dd on the button, lots of limpers, I make it $15,  5 callers.   yikes.  flop comes 5-5-7 rainbow. checks around to me.  I bet out $15 to build up the pot, EVERYONE calls. turn is 9s giving a flush draw and hitting a huge straight drawing hand.  FTA is that tighter lady I mentioned earlier.  she bets out $25.  now there are 3 callers of that bet.    I make it $120.  (ive got about $120 behind).  She takes a very, very long time, and finally calls, everyone else folds.    I am now pretty worried about my T kicker,  shes caught trips several times in the 2 hours I have been playing,, and shes played it the exact same way calling the large bets from someone else. 

River is the Js. so a flush draw gets there, plus the straight draws.  She checks.   and I just cant make the bet here.  about the only thing I can beat is a badly played overpair, a random 7x or Jx hand.  but I lose to almost any other 5 hand better than 8-5, plus the straight is kinda just sitting there.   I really didnt think about the flush.    I finally check it back and she shows 5  and throws the other card in the muck.   so she had one of the only 5's I could beat.  dammit.   based on my read of her, I thought there was real strength, so I chickened out and didnt go for the jugular. 

KQ hand is fine. Folding is fine against a good reg, we have decent offsuit big cards out of position. 3betting is good against someone who loves to ISO limpers. Don't build strategy around what would or would not have worked against your opponent's actual hand. Can't fold river as played here.

JJ hand, I actually think calling is OK pre. Again, we are here to make money, not win pots. We can play our hand in position, and we are under-repped. If it comes two big cards on the flop, cool, we check-fold and on to the next. We aren't ENTITLED to win the pot just because we have jacks. Also, being concerned that people will call pre with Kx or Ax if we raise smaller is OK. We want our opponents to make a mistake, and calling 3bets with raggedy aces is a mistake, esp since we aren't paying them off when they flop an ace. 

What hand is the reg making it 11x to open first in the pot? He went 7.5x over a limper with AQ. You also imply that he is shoving AK pre, and that you are folding if he shoves pre. If you make it $120, he jams for $450 effective (you don't say but I assume he covers?), and all others fold, we now have to call $330 to win $655, so almost exactly 2 to 1. We have over 36% equity against a range of QQ+, AK, so folding is now a mistake even if his range is that tight. We also are just turning our hand into a bluff if we are going to raise big enough that only hands that beat us stay in, and wasting the value of our hand. 

I also think 3b to $80-90 is good/fine, as it lowers the SPR and has people calling without proper odds, but doesn't make everyone fold everything we beat, and doesn't lock us into calling off if the original raiser rips it. Also, him checking KK 3 times there is almost surely terrible, depending on what the board is. Are you really checking back AA or QQ twice there?

T5 hand bet bigger on the flop. River changes nothing, she doesn't have T8 there (tight lady isn't calling T8 on 557r ever never). I dunno what card is a spade on the flop, but she isn't calling the flush draw on turn then checking when it hits on river, she would bet. Bet river. 

[CBT 1,288]

18 hours ago, Lurch said:

I just lost about 3 hours of my life watching Joey. Crazy shit. I’ve done a few streams and this is concerning for sure

 

18 hours ago, Irieguy said:

Is anybody following the Mike Postle cheating scandal. A Stones employee accused him of somehow knowing the hole cards on the stream, probably hacking RF IDs. 2+2 has done a pretty damning breakdown. He is either the GOD of 5/5 or cheating.  He has won 30 of 32 sessions.  Oh and also owned a company that developed RF ID apps.  I 100% think he’s guilty  

https://twitter.com/joeingram1/status/1179181928190078977?s=21

The 95o hand is ridic. 

[Chewbacca 7,807]

20 hours ago, Lurch said:

The 2+2 thread
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/mike-postle-cheating-allegations-1753388/index32.html

Anyone who is averaging a win rate of $700 per hour at 1/3 is cheating.  That's 233 BB/hour averaged over 13 sessions.  And his 5/5 is almost as good.  178 BB/hour over 16 sessions.

[blacklab 12,006]

just a heater, nothing to see here

[housious 468]

Yeah, seems like this Postle guy is screwed. What a dipshit. 

I'm curious how he actually did it though. 

Edited October 3, 2019 by housious

[CBT 1,288]

Looks like the Stones Gaming Manager and Postle were best buds. Rumor is that he was wearing something in his hat where he could get information.

[TXSooner518 2,440]

Similar to the Absolute Poker scandal, you wonder how long that shit could have gone undetected if they hadn't decided to get greedy and make it obvious. You can't call off on the river with ten high when they jam it with nine high. Get em later. 

[Lurch 5,942]

Looks like the Stones Gaming Manager and Postle were best buds. Rumor is that he was wearing something in his hat where he could get information.

What are these pics showing me?

[CBT 1,288]

He's wearing something under his hat while he plays. It looks "poofed" out. Something to send him information about the cards. He takes it off after to do interviews. Looks normalish. 

Allegedly. 

[blacklab 12,006]

bone vibration headphones

no external noise, but you can hear it.

[dirtonia 269]

Speaking of streams, has anyone checked out the “APP Show”? Pretty lame with no hold card info, but they’re allegedly getting a RFID table soon.

[chitwood 155]

24 minutes ago, dirtonia said:

Speaking of streams, has anyone checked out the “APP Show”? Pretty lame with no hold card info, but they’re allegedly getting a RFID table soon.

Watched some of the 5/10 last week. Somewhat interesting, but don’t want to watch for hours at a time. 

[Irieguy 1,059]

SVP is going to talk about this on ESPN in 15 minutes. Yes. This reached Sportscenter. Crazy. 

[Irieguy 1,059]

I’m obsessed with this Mike Postle thing. I think the win rate is the most damning piece of evidence. But one thing that hasn’t been mentioned enough, he claims that he wins because of his masterful reads. Only problem is that he almost never LOOKS at other players. He appears to be looking down or at his chips 90% of the time. 

One more question just as a thought exercise(no morality considered). The stream part of the game makes hiding the cheating tough long term. What strategy would you take to win the most and reduce odds of being caught?  I think I would ONLY cheat against the 2 players to my right and would play normal against the rest of the table. Then I could claim that I had reads on 2 specific players AND position. 

Just to be clear, I think Postle is morally repugnant. He appears to even have cheated a man dying of cancer(Kevin Racks RIP) but the strategy of how to exploit hand info while not being too out of line on a stream is interesting to me. 

[NoName 16,750]

8 hours ago, Irieguy said:

SVP is going to talk about this on ESPN in 15 minutes. Yes. This reached Sportscenter. Crazy. 

video: 

 

[AUS-97HORN 11,894]

I am no longer on the run-bad slide, I am on the why even bother playing slide. 

last 2 sessions I have quickly gotten up $200 less than 45 mins into the games.  first session, buyin for $300.  i admittedly got lucky with AJo on the button against a hyper aggressive/tilting player who made it $15 to go pre-flop (well within his normal start range), 2 callers, and I call.   flop comes K high, he bets out $20, everyone else folds but me, hes been c-betting a lot.  Turn comes a T,  giving me just a gutshot.  He bets out $25,  and I decide to bluff, and raise it to $65,  he takes a bit and calls.  River comes A.  He checks. and I bet out $75, he calls with KQ.   

He goes absolutely nuts on the dealer, like cussing the dealer for putting that A out there.  manager happens to be outside for a smoke at the time, so the rest of the table has to calm this guy down.  he proceeds to lead every hand for $20-30 starting bet.  gets a caller or 2, bets $70 on the flop, takes it down.  Goes more than 1 whole rotation with this going on. I keep folding crap before finally getting  QQ  UTG,  I limp,  he makes it $40, extremely old asian lady with only $87 in front calls the $40. comes back to me and Ive got almost $500 in front, tilter has around $450.  I know hes fuming to play against me, so I shove.   he snap calls, old asian calls.   

Flop comes J-T-9 rainbow, and he flips over AT, she flips over J8o  (wtf?) no problem, 8 comes on the turn gives me the nuts, and even if old lady boats up Im taking down a massive pot. 

except a fucking Q hits the god damned river.  straight for everyone.  brutal 2 outer to chop. 

next hand (I am BB)  is a bomb pot, Ive got 9-7ss.  top board is 8-6-5 rainbow, bottom board is  J high, all spades. sb checks,   I bet out $20, get 2 callers until tilter makes it $80.   SB shoves for $310, I call obviously, everyone else folds, SB shows TsTx.  top board throw up a 7 followed by a 9, and the river on the bottom board is another spade.... and he scoops the whole fucking thing. 

I get QQ 3 hands later, make it $20 to go after 5 limpers. 2 callers including the guy who just took the bomb pot.  flop comes 4-5-3  2 spades, they both check, I bet out $55, only bomb pot calls me.  turn is A,  he checks I bet out $55 again,  he shoves, Ive only got $55 left,  I sigh and call- he immediately asks if we want to run it more than once, I decline.   A on river makes me think I am good.... he looks at the board for a while before tabling..... ATss.   he obviously wasnt going anywhere. after the flop. and I fell right into the trap by betting the turn.  I leave, down $300.

today is more fun, have the day off, figure I am going to try to play the 4 hours for the early bird deal.  get nothing for 2 rotations. 

finally get 88 in the BB on a multi limped pot, make it $20.. get 3 callers. flop is A-7-4 rainbow, I bet out $25, only get 1 caller (hes a calling station)

Turn is K.  I bet out $40, and he folds. 

Very next hand is a straddle pot, several limpers and Ive got KJo in the sb.  I decide to just call. 

flop comes K-J-7, I check, the calling station from before bets out $15, gets 2 callers.  I check raise to $65. 

calling station calls, others go away.  A on turn, and I bet out $95  (meant to do $100 but had a short stack).  he folds.   

Get 77 very next hand on the button, MP decent player makes it $15 to go,  2 callers before me, I call, so do the blinds.  flop is T-8-7,  with 2 spades.   checks to decent player who bets out $50  (hes only got about $155 total).    I decide fuck it, board is way to draw-y to just call, so I shove. everyone else folds.  he asks "did you flop a set?"  tanks for a while then calls for $156 total.     Flips over JJ.... no prob, turn is a 9 to give him the nuts, and of course, I cant catch any of the 12 outs to win/chop that I need.

1 rotation later, I am 2nd to act with 66.  I make it $12, a crazy older asian calls the $12 (he only has around $100 behind), and then a hyper short stack shoves for $34 total. He's done the shove move a few times, mostly with air.  folds to me, and i shove to isolate.   crazy asian takes a long time, and finally calls 

I am up against A5o for crazy asian,  J2o for the short stack.  as usual when it comes to these multi way pots, I keep fucking losing the bigger side pot to bullshit.   flop is Q-5-x, A on turn, and good night Sally.  river is a blank, so 66 was good against the original raise.

I thought the point of these 70-30 hands was I was supposed to win 70% of the time?  lol nope.    I wouldnt even mind losing the main pot in these hands, but I keep losing the larger side pots where I am in the lead over, and over again.  I havent won a significant side pot in a LONG time. 

then *POOF* lights go out, all electricity out.  No power at all for just this building.  No way to play its very dark and while we could use cell phones to light the table, we cant see our own cards without showing them to everyone.  waited 30 mins, power doesnt come back on and I leave down $160. 

[Lurch 5,942]

Have you thought about taking up writing? They pay per word

[blacklab 12,006]

 

[Lurch 5,942]

So I’m busting my ass at $2/2 and build my stack to $400 which just gets me unstuck having had to add on twice. I decide I want to get my extra $200 of roll off the table, but the only way to go down is to leave the game for an hour. Solution is to go play $2/5 for an hour.

 

Get to a $2/5 table and guys are quite deep. Against my better judgement I put all $400 on the table, though I should have just played $200 super tight.

 

About 45 mins into my 1-hour $2/5 session, I’m dealt AhJc in BB. At a table that hasn’t limped the entire time I’m there, UTG limps. UTG+1, LJ, BTN and SB all limp behind. I decide to just check. $30 pot.

 

AdJd8h. SB leads out to $20. I make it $65 thinking we’ll go heads up... nope! UTG calls, LJ calls, BTN calls. SB snap shoves $425. I shove my $455. UTG folds, LJ calls and has us covered. $1365 pot

 

SB has Qd8d. LJ has KdTd.

 

4d. Motherfucker!! I have 4 outs...

 

As! Not only do I scoop, but I also win a $300 high hand. Boom.

 

Cash out at the end of the hour and head back to $2/2 and my fresh $200 buyin.

 

/csb

 

[Lurch 5,942]

...
In 40 mins at $2/2
-Lose $90 w flopped set of 9 on 965 2 J. He has 34

-Lose $125 w AA to 97cc when turn flush

-Lose $200 w AA to KK on K river.

Guess my day is done then.

[Lurch 5,942]

I am no longer on the run-bad slide, I am on the why even bother playing slide. 

FWIW I dig all of your plays. Didn’t see any that stood out as different from the line I’d take. Really like the AJ float bluff catch

[TXSooner518 2,440]

FWIW I dig all of your plays. Didn’t see any that stood out as different from the line I’d take. Really like the AJ float bluff catch

Almost all just absurd run bad. That said, I don’t like bet-calling QQ on 453-A. What do we think he called flop with then jams turn for a minraise that loses to QQ? I also don’t like betting 88 on A hi into 3 people and when we do and get called, betting a K turn is usually just torching money. If you bet a K hi flop and A turns then we can be repping an A to fold a K.

[Lurch 5,942]

QQ could easily have been vs flush draw.

His 88 hand, I’m just semi-bluff owning the A on the flop and turn. This is a pretty standard win for me. A lot of regs will float fold to me thinking I cbet too much but they’re unwilling to call twice

[AUS-97HORN 11,894]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

QQ could easily have been vs flush draw.

His 88 hand, I’m just semi-bluff owning the A on the flop and turn. This is a pretty standard win for me. A lot of regs will float fold to me thinking I cbet too much but they’re unwilling to call twice

this is pretty much my thought process.   I understood there was the chance that on the QQ hand he could have been floating with the A high flush draw.  but there is just a good of a chance that hes got a different flush draw and thats why I hesitated to call, but since there was already close to $300 in the pot already, once I bet the $55, i had to call the rest off.   and btw, if I HAD checked, I was fucking calling anything he did on the river anyway as I wouldnt have given him credit for the Ace since the river was another ace.

and I thought there was a better than 50% chance that the calling station had a draw or  had caught 2nd or 3rd pair on the flop and floated one bet.  

[TXSooner518 2,440]

If he has the flush draw on the QQ hand, he’s not shoving turn because he has literally 0 fold equity (obviously). He will just call the 55 on the turn and get in if he hits and fold if he misses.

 

Also we can’t build a turn strategy around what the actual river card came. Sure, if we check back, we are calling this river. Other rivers we would fold. Other times it goes check check and we lose but save the $55.

 

On the 88 hand, do we think they have better than us and we are making them fold it? If not we are just winning when we had the best hand anyway and losing a ton when he has an ace.

 

[Lurch 5,942]

Tough hand for discussion:

$2/2

4 limps to me in SB w AsAc. I make a mistake here and just raise to $12. I was mid conversation and didn’t properly consider the situation. Had I, I would have raised to $20 instead. Regardless, I made it $12 which was quickly called by BB and all four limpers.

6 way flop, $65 pot once rake is taken.

7d7h5h

I have $165. I lead out to $25. BB calls. He’s a young dude and just bought in for $300, which tells me he’s probably solid. The initial limper makes it $100. He’s an obnoxious dude that has been splashy but has also made some nice plays. He seems to be the target at the table. Other limpers fold. Back to me and I have $140 left.

Shove or fold?

[AUS-97HORN 11,894]

honest question, you having less than $200 behind on this hand in a 2/2 seems out of character, had you just recently lost a larger pot?

 

as for the hand in question,  my thought is 5-5 just calls there, 7x probably raises to scare off the flush draw,  and conversely any suited heart draw with a straight draw probably makes the same bet.  

 

But yeah raising into a 5 way pot in MP after initial raiser bets out and gets called seems very strong.   So my expert analyzing says he'd either got it or he doesnt so either he's on a draw, or has you crushed.

decision is based on read, sounds like hes a splashy player pre- but doesnt get too out of line post, and if thats the case, fold here.

[AUS-97HORN 11,894]

reason I came to this thread was to post this.

Jeff Boski has played against Postle several times on the Stones live feed, and he's got his opinion on the shot (spoiler, Jeff thinks hes dirty as fuck)

but this hand right here at that starts at the 13:10 mark with Jeff talking about what happens during the hand, and after the hand is hella damning for Postle, especially if Postle really went into the booth and talked to the players after the hand and really said what Jeff claims he said, its a pure admission of guilt.  

But holy fuck, Postle literally spreads out all 4 of his cards on the RFID reader trying to get the reader to read more than 2 cards, and gets visibly frustrated when the reader clearly doesnt pick up all 4 cards.... Pro tip, how the FUCK would you know live as a player that the RFID wasnt catching all 4 cards ?

 

 

[Lurch 5,942]

honest question, you having less than $200 behind on this hand in a 2/2 seems out of character, had you just recently lost a larger pot?

 

I always buy in at $200 and will top off if I ever get to $100, so this was fairly standard from a stack size perspective.

 

$100-200 let’s me get most of the max value from big hands as the weaker opponents tend to have less than $100, while minimizing the risk vs deeper stacks which tend to be the stronger players. Thus, I feel quite comfortable with this strategy.

[CBT 1,288]

2 hours ago, Lurch said:

Tough hand for discussion:

$2/2

4 limps to me in SB w AsAc. I make a mistake here and just raise to $12. I was mid conversation and didn’t properly consider the situation. Had I, I would have raised to $20 instead. Regardless, I made it $12 which was quickly called by BB and all four limpers.

6 way flop, $65 pot once rake is taken.

7d7h5h

I have $165. I lead out to $25. BB calls. He’s a young dude and just bought in for $300, which tells me he’s probably solid. The initial limper makes it $100. He’s an obnoxious dude that has been splashy but has also made some nice plays. He seems to be the target at the table. Other limpers fold. Back to me and I have $140 left.

Shove or fold?

Standard 1/2 table, Is he really raising a bet-call with 3 more people to act without a 7? Plus you have the BB who flatted a lead with 4 people behind him. I don't see how you are good here very often. 

Edited October 7, 2019 by CBT

[CBT 1,288]

haha that video, jfc, Hand after the PLO hand, he snaps off a turn x/jam with middle pair like it's nothing. 

[TXSooner518 2,440]

I'm gonna need a wetter board to fold AA with a SPR of less than 3. It doesn't take many straight/flush draws in his range to give us a reason to go with it. Also we have literally the top of our range here, the best hand we can possibly have, as I'm assuming we don't make it $12 here with 55 or 77 OOP, and even if we do, we aren't ever leading 775 is my guess. So if we are folding this, we are folding 100% of our range.

Can't fold it against a player who is "splashy."  Give me OMC in a WWII veteran hat and yep. Or maybe someone jamming over the $100.

Edited October 7, 2019 by TXSooner518

[CBT 1,288]

Yea having 80bbs does change it some. 

[Lurch 5,942]

I’ll try to figure out my equity against his range here, but in my head it was enough to shove.

[po elvis 2,097]

The interesting thing about the Postle cheating thing is that if you knew he is cheating (before all this publicity), then you would actually have the advantage over him. Imagine you knew he knew the cards. Here is an actual hand. You have pocket Jacks. The flop is A-A-Q. You check. Postle bets. You call. Turn is a blank. You check. Postle bets. You call. River is a 10. You check. Postle makes a HUGE all-in. If you know he KNOWS your cards and you have pocket Jacks, you know that he would not play this hand in a way where every move is trying to get you to fold. So you can call these huge all-ins on the river and be pretty confident.

 

[Lurch 5,942]

Yeah I’ve wondered if anyone could have developed such a strategy. Challenge is all of the hands where his air is bigger than your air.

[deech 2,324]

There is no real counter to God mode. He can adjust if you start calling super thin and then his win rate decreases marginally.  That's all. 

[Irieguy 1,059]

5 hours ago, po elvis said:

The interesting thing about the Postle cheating thing is that if you knew he is cheating (before all this publicity), then you would actually have the advantage over him. Imagine you knew he knew the cards. Here is an actual hand. You have pocket Jacks. The flop is A-A-Q. You check. Postle bets. You call. Turn is a blank. You check. Postle bets. You call. River is a 10. You check. Postle makes a HUGE all-in. If you know he KNOWS your cards and you have pocket Jacks, you know that he would not play this hand in a way where every move is trying to get you to fold. So you can call these huge all-ins on the river and be pretty confident.

 

 

5 hours ago, Lurch said:

Yeah I’ve wondered if anyone could have developed such a strategy. Challenge is all of the hands where his air is bigger than your air.

You guys are nuts. Deech is right. There is no counter to God Mode that is profitable. In Po’s example, assuming that the cheater is trying to get you to fold is not a valid assumption. He could just as easily be taking you to value town. Your only “advantage” forces you to make hero calls of huge bets on the river. Not only is that high variance but it’s also highly exploitable. Do it twice and Postle adjusts. There is no adjustment to God mode that is profitable. 

The only consolation that the rest of the table had was that Postle had to play somewhat “realistic” because of the stream. Look up the stats of the UltimateBet cheater PotRipper to prove my point. Nobody was profitable against him. NOBODY. 

[Irieguy 1,059]

Actually disregard my last post. Po Elvis you claim that you would have the advantage if you know that I know your cards. Let’s play that way. Any stakes any game.  

Edited October 8, 2019 by Irieguy

[Lurch 5,942]

So basic SMDH

[po elvis 2,097]

2 hours ago, Irieguy said:

Actually disregard my last post. Po Elvis you claim that you would have the advantage if you know that I know your cards. Let’s play that way. Any stakes any game.  

I would have the advantage if I knew that you knew my cards. once you know that i know that you know my cards, i lose that advantage if you are smart enough to take advantage of that.

say before this all came out you had watched all of the streams and knew that Postle was cheating and knew all of the cards. you could definitely play against him where you would have an advantage against him. 

[Irieguy 1,059]

15 minutes ago, po elvis said:

I would have the advantage if I knew that you knew my cards. once you know that i know that you know my cards, i lose that advantage if you are smart enough to take advantage of that.

say before this all came out you had watched all of the streams and knew that Postle was cheating and knew all of the cards. you could definitely play against him where you would have an advantage against him. 

Po, you are totally and completely wrong. Doesn’t matter if you know that I know your cards. If I know your cards I can play perfectly on the river. There’s no reason to bluff you. I would never call on the river. I raise if my hand is better and fold if it isn’t. I can literally never get coolered. Your plan is to make hero calls on river. I can nullify that plan by never bluffing on the river.  Therefore you can’t hero call because I’m never bluffing. That is such a huge advantage. When I have you beat I raise, when I don’t I fold. Imagine never losing with a straight to a flush, full house to bigger full house, etc.  You can never be coolered for a big pot  

I will play you this way and if you win I will give 10 times whatever you win. Beat me for $100 and you get $1,100. $1,000 bonus plus $100 win. You aren’t thinking critically here.  Sooner, please confirm I’m right. 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Irieguy

[VolenteHawk 495]

You can’t play him the way he describes his hypothetical, he’s saying he knows about the cheating but the cheater doesn’t know that. But he’s still very wrong. It might be good for a hero call or two, then any idiot with God Mode would just lean on you until you’re broke.

[Irieguy 1,059]

I’m going in to detail to show Po’s error. He’s not the only person who might make that misperception. Let’s assume I have no idea if he knows that I’m cheating or not. 

Here is how the situation would play out:

1st hand) I try to bluff him off 2nd pair and he calls my all-in. I lose. I start wondering why he did that. 

2nd hand) He hero calls me and wins with 3rd pair and I’m annoyed. 

3rd hand) He hero calls me with ace high and wins and I know this is one hero calling mother fucker. I change my strategy and never bluff the river. I don’t need to know what he knows. Just that he got me 3 times. 

Hands 4 through 1,000,000  I never bluff the river and still own him. It maybe takes a little longer but I get all the money because I never call the river. I raise when I have the best and fold when I don’t. No bluffing. Let him hero call or not. 

[dirtonia 269]

I’ll try to figure out my equity against his range here, but in my head it was enough to shove.

I’m shoving... what ended up happening?

[po elvis 2,097]

2 hours ago, Irieguy said:

I’m going in to detail to show Po’s error. He’s not the only person who might make that misperception. Let’s assume I have no idea if he knows that I’m cheating or not. 

Here is how the situation would play out:

1st hand) I try to bluff him off 2nd pair and he calls my all-in. I lose. I start wondering why he did that. 

2nd hand) He hero calls me and wins with 3rd pair and I’m annoyed. 

3rd hand) He hero calls me with ace high and wins and I know this is one hero calling mother fucker. I change my strategy and never bluff the river. I don’t need to know what he knows. Just that he got me 3 times. 

Hands 4 through 1,000,000  I never bluff the river and still own him. It maybe takes a little longer but I get all the money because I never call the river. I raise when I have the best and fold when I don’t. No bluffing. Let him hero call or not. 

yes, i agree there is not a permanent advantage, but a definite short term one.

[Bookman 4,730]

A civil lawsuit was filed: https://www.pokernews.com/news/2019/10/mike-postle-stones-parties-hit-with-10m-lawsuit-35621.htm

Postle got too greedy. Assume you're completely unethical and you have a way to know your opponent's hole cards. Are you going to use it 100% of the time, or are you going to use it once or twice in those big pots when you've got a bluff catcher?

By playing God mode basically all the time, there is a shit-ton of television coverage where his actions can't be explained except that he knew his opponent's hole cards. Did he really think he would get away with that forever?

[AUS-97HORN 11,894]

17 minutes ago, Bookman said:

A civil lawsuit was filed: https://www.pokernews.com/news/2019/10/mike-postle-stones-parties-hit-with-10m-lawsuit-35621.htm

Postle got too greedy. Assume you're completely unethical and you have a way to know your opponent's hole cards. Are you going to use it 100% of the time, or are you going to use it once or twice in those big pots when you've got a bluff catcher?

By playing God mode basically all the time, there is a shit-ton of television coverage where his actions can't be explained except that he knew his opponent's hole cards. Did he really think he would get away with that forever?

agree- he got too greedy, and I wonder if its because he had to share the funds with his collaborator and that person forced him to keep playing because they wanted a bigger payoff?

I mean shit, all he had to do was play suited connectors, pocket pairs, any suited ace or king, plus any 2 broadway cards and play those hands reasonably, plus make a bad raise on the river every so often so his river win rate wasnt absolutely perfect for his holdings.

also, he probably needed to make a few "throw away" moves, like that epic AK vs AK pre-flop hand where he had 5-6 and called off $700.  Since he knew all the cards discarded and that both opponents had AK, he was something like a 54% fav.   SHOVE there, yes you lose half the time but at least you can claim you made a move because you didnt think they were that strong, and if you win, well thats poker and it doesnt look anywhere near as suspicious, and a big loss there helps offset the view that hes a god. 

plus he really needed to raise/ fold several hands where he had 3rd or 4th nuts to show that he wasnt in pure god mode.  that 88 vs TT hand where it went 99T- on the flop (it was checked through) turn was an X (small bet called by Postle)-8 on the river and he just check called a $200 river bet.  dude you just make 4th nuts on the river on a very passive hand, you have to fucking raise there, even if its just a min raise, you cant just check call on that board where every fucking draw just hit and you have a highly under-repped hand.

I am betting he had been cheating on the live feed for at least a year or 2 back, and he just felt like it hadnt been noticed before, so it wasnt ever gonna get noticed?

[Lurch 5,942]

I’m shoving... what ended up happening?

I shoved. He had A7 no hearts. Still think it was right play