2019 Poker run gooder or die thread

[AUS-97HORN 11757]

interesting hands on Friday and Sat at APP,   my cable went down so no internet, no tv, so I played both nights. 

Fri bought in for $300,  played a few hands was down to $250 on a bomb pot  where i flopped the top pair in both boards, both with the flush draws.  I made it $30 to go, had 3 callers, turn gives me 2 pair on on board, there was a bet of $50, and a call, and I shove.  both guys playing declare all in, and Ive just shoved into 2 different nut flushes.   DOH.  Down $300.  Rebuy $300.   

Brand new player comes to the table, hes never played there before, he doesnt have a membership, he actually tried to sit down and play without having any hours.  Management lets him have 1 free hour. So he buys in for $200, AND REFUSES TO REMOVE THE CHIPS FROM HIS RACK.  dude literally plays with the rack and twice he just puts the whole tray in the pot to signify hes all in. plays for about 15 mins like this,  calls almost any pre flop raise and either folds or throws the whole rack in the middle. really bizarre.     hes calling any hand pre.   I finally get a chance to take him down when I have TsTx in late position, when EP made it $12, extra bizarro calls the 12, one other caller, and I make it $70 to go. EP folds, bizarre of course, calls, and everyone else folds.  flop is 2-6-6,  w 2 spades, he checks I  bet $75, he calls, turn is a 4s, he checks again, I put him all in and in goes the rack again.  hes got 6-3 off.

He wins the hand, immediately tells the floor hes done playing, gets up and does a hit and run. 

Sigh addon for another $200, and I turn it around.  flop a nut flush to 2nd nut flush and get it all in on the turn and double up, win a $300 bomb pot  shortly after, and then bluff my way into a massive pot where Im the button and I  3 bet pre to $45 with 4-5o, get called by the CO,  on a K-Q-6 board he bets $50, I raise it to $100. he calls, turn comes 7x, he checks I bet $100 again... he calls.  Turn comes 8x he bets $100, and I shove, and have him covered.  he tanks for a very long time before finally calling, I win and have $1300 in front of me. 

play a few hands and am down to about $1250 when this hand happens.  Bob was there and got to see it live in all its glory.  I am the CO in this hand. 

The players  of importance

EP, new player to APP Chinese, and knows 90% of the Chinese players in the room, He'd bought in for $300 20 mins ago, and got felted, bought in for $300 more, and won a big pot to have just shy of $800 in front of him.

Button and BB are wacky loose raising cannons, any suited hand gets bumped anywhere from $10-20 pre,  they are almost guaranteed to raise in a multi- limped pot.  I count on it. 

Button has about $575 this hand, BB has a lot as well. 

EP limps for $2, as do several other players, including myself, when I look down at 2 red queens.  I take the chance that either of the 2 lunatics to act will raise the pot. 
As expected, button immediately makes it $11 to play, BB calls,  EP calls, and 2 others call.   

Ive got em right where I want em.  I announce $111 total,    as Ive mentioned before, some of these guys will call with anything anyway, so make them pay and there is no way button or BB has a monster hand, they would have bet more, so I am ahead for sure.   And there is about $70 in dead money in the pot anyway.      

Button snap calls anyway, and counts out $111.  BB folds.  Also  legitimately, a $111 bet in pre flop in $1/2 is a no bullshit bet, thats always a large pocket pair, and a snap call of another $100 when you only have $11 invested pre also implies there are real hands out there.

and then EP comes into play.  Dude sits there laughing to himself and muttering under his breath.  takes no fewer than 2 mins to act.  He's does say "who makes it $111 on an $11 bet" Im about to call clock on him because its beyond nuts at this point, when he suddenly says hes all in ~$800. 

I know Im fucking good at this point and I want to isolate, and then see If we can run 2 boards out because Im not keen on getting 3 outed for $800.  So I instantly announce I am all in. 

Wacky any 2 cards on the button SNAP CALLS-   I literally say out loud what the fuck is this?  I know Im ahead, and I honestly have no idea what cards I need to come to stay ahead  other than the board running out a 6 high. 

Main pot is roughly  $1750. 

Side pot of me and EP is a little over $500. 

I show the QQ and bizarro just winces  ( BTW, he never shows his hand- but I really think it was either Ax suited or Kx suited).   EP guy starts chanting Ace or King!

flop looks to be a complete miss, 8 high, blank on the turn and Im hearing Ace! King! from EP.   So I know I just need to avoid 6 outs (and probably actually 5) to have $2500 in front of me.. 

and the fucking K hits on river!     

MOTHER FUCKER. 

Of course I get beat by the guy in the side pot.  I mean I would be pissed anyway to lose, but  only losing $325 on the hand instead of $800 is a huge fucking difference. 

I didnt realize at the time, but Bob came over and patted me on the back.  Im fucking disgusted.  Why the fuck do I never win these massive monster dollar hands when I am in them and ahead?   I understand 50/50 hands happen, but  this aint a tournament,  hes got eleven fucking dollars invested in the pot before he decides to shove with AK there.

I swear on my life  every $2k + pot I've been involved in, I've been favorite and been fucking beaten every fucking time.  Every time.  

Chinese guy starts chanting, running over to the other tables to tell his buddies, he's high fiving them all,  he comes back to the table, plays 2 hands as the blinds, folds both and grabs 3 racks.

The dude literally racks up and leaves!  He played for less than 40 fucking minutes and  it ends up being the 2nd hit and run I get on the day. 

i play for another 5 hours, never get back to even and cash out with  -$400 day  6 fucking outs to be up $1600+ on the day.   just fucking disgusted. 

Edited June 9, 2019 by AUS-97HORN

[dirtonia 269]

The stacks of 10 guy clowning on the rack guy. Teehehehehe

 

[Lurch 5922]

You NEVER have money invested in a pot. That’s a very dangerous perspective to have when playing poker. Seriously: stop thinking that.

What matters are the total pot, the stacks behind players in the hand and the current bet to call raise or fold to.

Your $111 3bet into a $50 pot was totally normal, so guy’s comment was dumb.

EP was then getting great odds w his hand and it was a good shove, imo. His initial $11 was completely irrelevant in that decision.

[blacklab 11926]

fucking "Wacky any 2 cards" is also known as frank the tank.

He's been playing underground games for years and would think nothing of dropping $5k in a game where the average buy in was $200.

He owes me thousands. I don't know how many times I'd play for hours watching him call anything, then finally get a hand like kings or aces, hit a set on the flop, have him bet into me, go all in and have him call, and then watch him hit runner runner strait or flush. He'd then promptly lose the money to someone else at the table who would invariably leave within 5 minutes.

A few nights ago I saw a buddy with kings., makes a big raise, other guy goes all in with AK,  frank calls. Flop T32. Buddy goes all in, Frank calls. Turn 8, river 6, frank turns over 97 to scoop the pot. He called >$300 on a T32 flop with 97 to a pre flop raiser.

He's ventured over to the big o table a couple of times and I absolutely pounded him. Wish he would play more big o so I could get some more of my money back.

[Chewbacca 7767]

Heading out to Vegas Friday for a quick trip.  Won't be able to play any bracelet events, but is there anywhere that lists out the daily tournaments that are running now?  I know there's a WSOP deepstack at the Rio and Venetian runs a daily deepstack, but where do I find out about all the others?  Staying at Aria.

[Lurch 5922]

Heading out to Vegas Friday for a quick trip.  Won't be able to play any bracelet events, but is there anywhere that lists out the daily tournaments that are running now?  I know there's a WSOP deepstack at the Rio and Venetian runs a daily deepstack, but where do I find out about all the others?  Staying at Aria.

Bravo Poker Live and Poker Atlas

[Lurch 5922]

I would ALWAYS recommend Aria daily tourneys, especially since you’re staying there.

Wynn runs the best dailys in Vegas, imo

Across the street from Aria, PH runs a ton of low entry daily’s if you just want to goof around for a few hours.

WSOP dailys at Rio are HUGE, often breaking records as such. The mid day dailys are solid, well structured events. The later ones are crap shoot turbos. You’ll also find sit and gos at every buyin level you’d want, if that’s your thing.

[Chewbacca 7767]

4 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

Bravo Poker Live and Poker Atlas

 

Thanks.  Didn't even think about checking Bravo.  I've only used it for cash games.  

[crony 359]

You should definitely play at the Wynn. Place is top notch. Easily my favorite poker room.

[Chewbacca 7767]

You should definitely play at the Wynn. Place is top notch. Easily my favorite poker room.

Hopefully we will make it over there. Aria is so nice sometimes it's hard to leave.

[Chewbacca 7767]

You should definitely play at the Wynn. Place is top notch. Easily my favorite poker room.

Hopefully we will make it over there. Aria is so nice sometimes it's hard to leave.

[Lurch 5922]

Hopefully we will make it over there. Aria is so nice sometimes it's hard to leave.

During WSOP Aria poker room will have waiting lists 30+ deep for every game they run. It’s an absolute mad house, but very lucrative for cash players from my experience.

Because of this, they do cancel a lot of their dailys, so beware

[TXSooner518 2438]

Aria is currently running a series, usually with a $400-500 noon and a $240 7 pm. Register early to avoid alternate lists.

Currently series at Wynn, Planet Hollywood, Venetian, Orleans, Golden Nugget, and Binions in addition to WSOP stuff.

Wynn and Venetian are the best. Planet Hollywood is super soft but can be disorganized with some weak dealers. Orleans and Nugget both have good mixed games and a very nicely structured $150 NLHE.

Vegas-Poker-schedule.com is a great site where you can see every tourney every day. Can click on them to get structure sheets. For NLHE, it lists S-points which is a measure of how deep the structure is.

[Bookman 4638]

11 hours ago, crony said:

You should definitely play at the Wynn. Place is top notch. Easily my favorite poker room.

Not really interested in top notch. Where do the tourists trying to give away money play?

[CBT 1282]

Fuck the venetian and adelson.

[Chewbacca 7767]

3 hours ago, Bookman said:

Not really interested in top notch. Where do the tourists trying to give away money play?

PH has been very fishy when I've been there in the past.  Same for MGM if they still have a poker room.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Both PH and MGM can be fishy at times, usually weekend nights or very early AM. PH has $20 straddle from any position, so sometimes you get a wild table that plays more like 1/2/20/100- all in pre.

[Lurch 5922]

Fuck the venetian and adelson.

Bump.

[Lurch 5922]

Both PH and MGM can be fishy at times, usually weekend nights or very early AM. PH has $20 straddle from any position, so sometimes you get a wild table that plays more like 1/2/20/100- all in pre.

PH also has pole dancers, if you’re into that sort of thing

[Chewbacca 7767]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

 

PH also has pole dancers, if you’re into that sort of thing

 

The Pleasure Pit is one of my favorite parts of Vegas.  It's always nice to get a seat in the poker room with a good view.

[Bookman 4638]

Question for you pros.

Played a 1/2 cash game yesterday. Had been there about twenty minutes when I played this hand.

I'm on the button with pocket fours. Two limps in front of me, and I limp with the plan to call a reasonable raise. Both blinds call, so there's five players and a $10.00 pot. 

Flop is 10-4-Q, rainbow. Check, bet $10, call, fold, and I raise to $45. Initial better, who has me covered (I have about $320), says "I'll gamble with you." Everyone else folds.

Turn is seven of hearts, bringing a flush draw. Check, I bet $100, call.

River is ten of hearts, bringing in the flush and giving me bottom full house. The villain then gives me a speech and bets $50.00 into me.

Once I got the speech I thought I was beat. Is this ever a raise? I have $173 left. I was certain he had Q-10, but I'm never folding to a $50 bet there with a full house.

I called and he turned over A-J of hearts, giving him the nut flush.

Anyway, I've been thinking about this hand. If he had checked to me I probably would have bet $100.00. What if he had checked, then given me a speech and shoved? What if we were much deeper? He made my decision much simpler by betting $50.00.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Bookman

[TXSooner518 2438]

Fun hand! You’ll get better feedback if you just describe the hand up to the decision point to avoid “results oriented” advice. Easy to say “hell yeah raise” now that we know his hand.

That said, I would definitely jam river over his bet. On this board, opponents can give the “speech” with a flush or even a ten on occasion.

Most, but not all, opponents would have played QT more aggressively on flop or turn on a pretty wet board.

[Lurch 5922]

Soooooo much going on w this hand.

For me, I’m mostly anti-limp. If it’s good enough to limp, it’s good enough to raise. Plus, we don’t want 5-way pots. Set mining w a small pair I get limping with, BUT not on button, imo. Anyway, I’m taking the action to $10-15 preflop, depending on what number will get me just one or two callers based off of how I’ve learned the various players are reacting to raises.

I’d expect several pairs and straight draws on that flop. I like your raise. I probably would have gone $35, but your $45 worked so more value for you!

On turn, we have a $100 pot and you bet $100? Were you trying to get a fold? Again, great it worked for you (more value!) but seems pretty risky long term. I’d go $65 here.

On river, we have a boat. I’m playing for stacks every damn time.

What does his bet tell us? Would he ever think that’s an effective bluff, especially given your remaining stack and bet history? Probably not. It appears to be a value bet, so we think he has something he thinks is a winner. I’d see trip Ts and possibly flush, both of which would be hard for him to get away from at this point if you shove.

This is where you could do the combo evaluations to see the math. How many combos of flushes and trip Ts could he have played this way? How many combos of boats and quads could he have played this way? I think there are many more of the former, so in the long run you’ll be more profitable shoving than calling (and NEVER folding!) in this situation. Sure, sometimes he’ll have it, but mostly he won’t...

[Lurch 5922]

Looks like villain was in BB and just checked his option pre w AJs vs 4 limpers. He definitely should raise here, imo.

On flop, I like his lead and sizing since everyone just limped. I like to do this in my BB a lot when everyone just limped, even w total air I board is weak. Once you made it $45, he’s being asked to pay $35 to win $100+. Not a bad call.

Turn gave him 15 outs if he had you on a pair of Q, so he thinks he’ll hit a winner 30% of the time. You asked him to pay $100 to win $300+, so I like this call too.

It’s interesting to me that both your flop and turn bets felt too big to me, but they were actually perfectly sized for his holding.

[Bookman 4638]

When he said "I'll gamble with you" I thought he had Q-10, K-J, J-9, or possibly (not likely) 10-10. Maybe Q-K, Q-J, Q-9, but to be honest the range I was playing against was Q-10, K-J, and J-9. He bet the pot into three people. To me that looks like he's trying to build a pot with a strong hand or bluffing with a straight draw.

I wasn't sure if he'd call the $100 turn bet, but if he had K-J or J-9 I wanted to make him pay. At these card houses in San Antonio these guys call huge bets when they're chasing. When he called I thought he might've picked up a flush draw.

When the river came, the speech completely threw me off. I thought it was Q-10 (maybe quads?) or he backdoored a flush.

To be honest, if we were deeper and he shoved I probably would have folded.

[Bookman 4638]

By the way, the table yesterday was interesting. It was pretty standard for people to bet at least the pot after the flop. Makes chasing difficult unless there are multiple callers.

I checked from the BB once with K-J offsuit. Flop was J-5-7 rainbow, and this guy bets $20 into an $8 pot. I just folded. Too nitty?

[Lurch 5922]

When he said "I'll gamble with you" I thought he had Q-10, K-J, J-9, or possibly (not likely) 10-10. Maybe Q-K, Q-J, Q-9, but to be honest the range I was playing against was Q-10, K-J, and J-9. He bet the pot into three people. To me that looks like he's trying to build a pot with a strong hand or bluffing with a straight draw.
I wasn't sure if he'd call the $100 turn bet, but if he had K-J or J-9 I wanted to make him pay. At these card houses in San Antonio these guys call huge bets when they're chasing. When he called I thought he might've picked up a flush draw.
When the river came, the speech completely threw me off. I thought it was Q-10 (maybe quads?) or he backdoored a flush.
To be honest, if we were deeper and he shoved I probably would have folded.

The range you assigned him on flop is WAY too tight, imo. If you tightened it that much because of what he said, I think you’re putting too much emphasis on tells. In my experience, the information that is going to help most are actual plays, not physical and verbal tells (which are frequently ambiguous or even intentionally misleading).

98, 99, T8, T9, TT, JT, JJ, Q8, Q9, QT, QJ, QQ, K9, KT, KJ, KQ, AT, AJ, AQ all appear to be in play for him through the flop

[Lurch 5922]

By the way, the table yesterday was interesting. It was pretty standard for people to bet at least the pot after the flop. Makes chasing difficult unless there are multiple callers.
I checked from the BB once with K-J offsuit. Flop was J-5-7 rainbow, and this guy bets $20 into an $8 pot. I just folded. Too nitty?

Nah. When someone makes a stupid over-bet into a small pot, I’ll often let them have it and just note it for future play. You don’t have to take them all down.

[goatsaag 279]

2 hours ago, Lurch said:

Looks like villain was in BB and just checked his option pre w AJs vs 4 limpers. He definitely should raise here, imo.

On flop, I like his lead and sizing since everyone just limped. I like to do this in my BB a lot when everyone just limped, even w total air I board is weak. Once you made it $45, he’s being asked to pay $35 to win $100+. Not a bad call.

Turn gave him 15 outs if he had you on a pair of Q, so he thinks he’ll hit a winner 30% of the time. You asked him to pay $100 to win $300+, so I like this call too.

It’s interesting to me that both your flop and turn bets felt too big to me, but they were actually perfectly sized for his holding.

Wouldn't this be $35 to win $65 and $100 to win $200? Those feel like bad calls into what I feel like were over bets (I'd think $30-35 for the first and $60-75 for the second).

[Lurch 5922]

Wouldn't this be $35 to win $65 and $100 to win $200? Those feel like bad calls into what I feel like were over bets (I'd think $30-35 for the first and $60-75 for the second).

Think of a $1 coin flip bet. The ratio (50%) of your bet ($1) to the total pot ($2) is what your win percentage needs to be for the bet to be even.

If you and 5 others rolled a dice for $1, you’d want to win $6 every 6th roll, not $5. So 1/6 (16%) is the target ratio, not 1/5 (20%)

They were def overbets, but with the turn call for example, he was getting good enough odds to at least consider it. $100 to win $300 is 33%. He likely believed he had 15 outs, which the rule of 2 and 4 says should be roughly 30%. Not fully the 33% he’d need, but close and there’s more equity available on the river if he hits.

[Irieguy 1059]

What is Sam Cosby’s Surly ID? 

From the $600 NL online event:

Sam 'BickDutt69' Cosby Knocks Out Three In One Hand

Sunday, June 16, 2019 6:26 PM Local Time (about 1 hour and 17 minutes ago)

In a huge, multi-way all-in situation, Samuel 'BickDutt69' opened from middle position with    to 1,455 and the player to his left called all in for 906. The player in the hijack called and then the player in the cutoff shoved all in for 13,434. The player on the button called all in for their last 107 and then the small blind shoved for around 86,000, putting everybody all in. Cosby called off his 48,000ish and the hijack folded. 

Samuel 'BickDutt69' Cosby:   
Opponent #1:   
Cutoff:   
Button:   
Small Blind:   

The board ran out       and Cosby backdoored his way into a straight to ship the pot and the three knockouts.

[TexArcher 37765]

7 hours ago, Lurch said:

In my experience, the information that is going to help most are actual plays, not physical and verbal tells (which are frequently ambiguous or even intentionally misleading).

 

100% agree.  A player's starting hand ranges and betting patterns (and deviations) are much more reliable than physical/verbal tells, they don't take as long to figure out, and they can't be faked.

[Irieguy 1059]

8 hours ago, goatsaag said:

Wouldn't this be $35 to win $65 and $100 to win $200? Those feel like bad calls into what I feel like were over bets (I'd think $30-35 for the first and $60-75 for the second).

Lurch expertly explained why your math is wrong and he briefly touched on implied odds. If villain was drawing to a flush and thought he could get paid more bets on the turn and river he needs a smaller win % to call. There are tutorials online that describe implied odds in detail and make villains calls more justifiable. 

[Irieguy 1059]

8 hours ago, Lurch said:

 

The range you assigned him on flop is WAY too tight, imo. If you tightened it that much because of what he said, I think you’re putting too much emphasis on tells. In my experience, the information that is going to help most are actual plays, not physical and verbal tells (which are frequently ambiguous or even intentionally misleading).

98, 99, T8, T9, TT, JT, JJ, Q8, Q9, QT, QJ, QQ, K9, KT, KJ, KQ, AT, AJ, AQ all appear to be in play for him through the flop

 

Lurch nailed this explanation. The range you gave villian was way too narrow. You are heading down a dangerous path if you are looking for reasons to fold full houses. At low stakes you will be folding way too often. But that isn’t the only problem. If you move up in stakes or play against the same pool of players your narrow calling range will be very exploitable. Players can bluff you too easily on the river for two reasons 1) you would be folding too much 2) you would almost never be raising. Imagine knowing that your opponent won’t raise a full house on the river. He can turn 1 pair hands or 2 pair hands in to bluffs with the knowledge that you will almost never raise him. One of the sickest feelings is betting 2 pair on river and having a tricky opponent raise you. That’s why against tricky opponents I will usually check call semi strong hands on river. But against you I could just bet with impunity and not worry about turning a winner in to a loser. 

[TXSooner518 2438]

23 hours ago, Lurch said:

Soooooo much going on w this hand.

For me, I’m mostly anti-limp. If it’s good enough to limp, it’s good enough to raise. Plus, we don’t want 5-way pots. Set mining w a small pair I get limping with, BUT not on button, imo. Anyway, I’m taking the action to $10-15 preflop, depending on what number will get me just one or two callers based off of how I’ve learned the various players are reacting to raises.

I’d expect several pairs and straight draws on that flop. I like your raise. I probably would have gone $35, but your $45 worked so more value for you!

On turn, we have a $100 pot and you bet $100? Were you trying to get a fold? Again, great it worked for you (more value!) but seems pretty risky long term. I’d go $65 here.

On river, we have a boat. I’m playing for stacks every damn time.

What does his bet tell us? Would he ever think that’s an effective bluff, especially given your remaining stack and bet history? Probably not. It appears to be a value bet, so we think he has something he thinks is a winner. I’d see trip Ts and possibly flush, both of which would be hard for him to get away from at this point if you shove.

This is where you could do the combo evaluations to see the math. How many combos of flushes and trip Ts could he have played this way? How many combos of boats and quads could he have played this way? I think there are many more of the former, so in the long run you’ll be more profitable shoving than calling (and NEVER folding!) in this situation. Sure, sometimes he’ll have it, but mostly he won’t...

I think limping behind can be fine, especially with speculative hands in position like this one. What are we trying to accomplish when we raise 44 over limpers here? We don't care that much about winning the blinds and limps (obv this is different in a tourney, where the blinds/limps are a much bigger stack boost). 

I would tend to RAISE the 44 here if: my opponents are fit/fold on the flop, and/or we are deep stacked. 

I would tend to CALL the 44 here if: my opponents are sticky pre/postflop, and/or we are shallower stacked.

For example, we go $15 pre, and everybody calls. Now there is a $75 pot and we have $180 behind. Let's say the flop is T93r. Checks to us. Are we betting? That's a lot of opponents to hope fold on a board like this, but checking lets everyone draw at overcards for free.  To me, a huge test is if we bet $30 into $75 here, what are our villains doing with hands like AJ with a backdoor flush draw or 66? If they are generally calling them, betting is just going to bloat the pot. It also means winning without a set is going to be hard, and therefore I don't think raising pre wins money against these opponents. If they are generally folding them, our opponents may be overfolding, so we are making money by raising pre, because they are folding too much equity post.

On stack depth, I want to be able to get in by the river if we flop a set. So playing 1/2 if we are $200 deep, I'm more OK calling, if we are $500 deep, I like raising.

21 hours ago, Lurch said:

Looks like villain was in BB and just checked his option pre w AJs vs 4 limpers. He definitely should raise here, imo.

On flop, I like his lead and sizing since everyone just limped. I like to do this in my BB a lot when everyone just limped, even w total air I board is weak. Once you made it $45, he’s being asked to pay $35 to win $100+. Not a bad call.

Turn gave him 15 outs if he had you on a pair of Q, so he thinks he’ll hit a winner 30% of the time. You asked him to pay $100 to win $300+, so I like this call too.

It’s interesting to me that both your flop and turn bets felt too big to me, but they were actually perfectly sized for his holding.

Similar analysis to whether villain should raise his AJs. His hand plays fine either short-handed or multiway. I would be raising AJhh on the button over limpers more than 44, just because it plays better post. Out of position, I would almost never raise 44 from the BB over limpers unless we are super deep, or villains play super bad. I would raise the AJhh much more often, mainly only checking if the first limper plays sneaky/trappy, or one of the limpers has like $50 and may just jam over my raise. 

Flop call of the raise by BB is fairly marginal, and would be bad IMO without the backdoor NFD, but fine. One thing he has to watch for on the turn in counting outs is that an Ace for him completes the open-ender of KJ, which we can certainly have. He needs to discount the aces as outs for sure. Also, he hits a pretty gin river in his mind, and then only bets $50 into a $300+ pot. He needs to get paid more on the river when he hits to add enough implied odds to call turn, since he doesn't have correct direct odds.

20 hours ago, Bookman said:

When he said "I'll gamble with you" I thought he had Q-10, K-J, J-9, or possibly (not likely) 10-10. Maybe Q-K, Q-J, Q-9, but to be honest the range I was playing against was Q-10, K-J, and J-9. He bet the pot into three people. To me that looks like he's trying to build a pot with a strong hand or bluffing with a straight draw.

I wasn't sure if he'd call the $100 turn bet, but if he had K-J or J-9 I wanted to make him pay. At these card houses in San Antonio these guys call huge bets when they're chasing. When he called I thought he might've picked up a flush draw.

When the river came, the speech completely threw me off. I thought it was Q-10 (maybe quads?) or he backdoored a flush.

To be honest, if we were deeper and he shoved I probably would have folded.

You need a really good read to fold a hand this strong. Speeches are scary for sure, but your hand beats hands that players will see as monsters. Also we have to evaluate if his story matches the hands we are scared of. Most players on this board are playing QT or TT more aggressively before the river, and TT most likely raises pre. He never has QQ. 

20 hours ago, Bookman said:

By the way, the table yesterday was interesting. It was pretty standard for people to bet at least the pot after the flop. Makes chasing difficult unless there are multiple callers.

I checked from the BB once with K-J offsuit. Flop was J-5-7 rainbow, and this guy bets $20 into an $8 pot. I just folded. Too nitty?

I'm never letting this go to a single bet without a huge read on the player, especially given your statement that this type of betting is "pretty standard" in this game.

18 hours ago, goatsaag said:

Wouldn't this be $35 to win $65 and $100 to win $200? Those feel like bad calls into what I feel like were over bets (I'd think $30-35 for the first and $60-75 for the second).

There are 2 different ways to express odds, both are correct, you just have to make sure to not mix them to get the wrong odds. Take the turn one from the BB's perspective, since the math is easy. We are being laid $200 to $100 is one way to look at it. Since we are being laid 2 to 1, we need 33.3% to win. Another way to look at it is we are putting in $100 of a $300 pot. That means we are putting in 1/3 of the money, so we need, yep, 33.3% to win. Sometimes players mix these, and say oh i'm being laid $300 to $100, so we need 25% to win. 

To have direct odds on the turn we need 33.3% equity in the pot. Since the bet isn't all-in, we have to consider what will happen on the river. Say we have a marginal made hand on the turn, say, JT, where we think we have 33.3% equity against our opponent's range. We should be more inclined to fold, since we have reverse implied odds. We are unlikely to improve our hand (we will improve on the actual river here obviously, but we only have 5 outs to improve, and are drawing dead against some of our opponent's range like QT and 44), and will often face another big bet on the river. 

If, instead, we have a hand like BB actually has, you have better implied odds to call. We have 11 outs to the pure nuts, and 2 other very good outs, and 3 more that are occasionally good. If we improve, we almost certainly win the pot, so we can win more on the river (as discussed above, we need a better plan than donking 1/6 pot when we river the nut flush, but that's a different story).  If we don't improve, we can pretty happily fold to a river bet, and be less concerned about folding the best hand than when we fold JT or whatever.

 

[Lurch 5922]

Why would I raise 44 on the button vs 2 limpers?

If I check, I’m almost certainly entering a five way pot. With the exception of set mining, I (at my skill level) don’t ever want to be in a five way pot. We might as well be pulling names out of a hat to see who wins. I need to be in heads up or 3-way if at all possible. If I can get that while on button and being the aggressor, I’m happy with any two cards in my playable range. For me, this line w 44 is going to be more profitable than limp/set mining on the button.

You ask what would I do if I raised to $15 and got 4 callers. Yep, that would indeed suck. This is why I would be hyper aware of what bet size would generally weed out the field and would comfortably bet that high. Hell, if they all folded here, I’d pick up 3 BBs which is fine w 44. Plus, if I do this enough, I’ll be able to get callers with a larger bet when I wake up w monsters.

[chemHORN 1239]

On 6/3/2019 at 4:16 PM, October sky said:

I was all in with 1010 vs 1010 and I hit a 4 card flush. Several hands later girl gets AK all in vs AA and runs outs 82888 for chop. Crazy table. 

I played flight D.  Sat down at the starting time.  Busted out just before dinner break.  I couldnt get any cards all day.  I actually folded AK once preflop to make it as far as I did.   It was heads up pre flop and clear that villian had AA.  Once I folded he flipped over AA.  I never saw a pocket pair above 6's (and only saw about 3 pocket pairs in almost 10 hours of playing) until my all in with 10's and only about 8 BB's left.  Got called by QJ.  Flop was AQJ.  Still had two shots at the straight but it never came.  Every single hand I got was 8-3 and 7-4.  It was a brutal run.  At least I wasnt the girl next to me whose Aces full of sixes busted to quad 6's on the 2nd hand.  Also one of our dealers told us of another dealer a few tables away that had dealt a joker. 

[TXSooner518 2438]

I meant to mention bet sizing when saying we should be evaluating our opponents when deciding to limp or raise here. The size of raise that will achieve your goal in your game matters a ton. I don't want to have to raise to $25 over 2 limpers to win $7 with 44. The negative implied odds are too large when we run into a monster in the blinds or in the limper's hand, and when we get called, now we are playing guessing games, hating basically every flop except ones with a 4 on them, or the rare 332 or 235 or whatever. 

In your game, if a more reasonable open size gets you headsup with a single player or maybe two who will then overfold the flop, awesome. 

But, to me, in a cash game, the real value of a baby pair is winning a huge pot when we stack someone with a set. If we are raising to $25 in hopes just to win the $7, we don't even need the 44 right? Might as well be doing that with A2o, Q9s, 74o, etc. You say "you are pulling names out of a hat to see who wins" if you limp. But in that spot, when you lose, you usually lose $2, and when you win, you often win a medium pot, and sometimes win a huge pot. So pulling names is bigly profitable for you.

We should be raising when we have a big equity advantage, and I don't think 44 is crushing either opponents' range, so we are often bloating the pot when we don't have an edge. I assigned the first limper a range of all pairs 99 and below, all suited aces AJs and below, all offsuit aces AQ and below, all broadways (except KQs), K9s, Q9s, J9s-86s, T9s-45s, T9o-87o, second limper same range but included 75s, 64s, 76o, and K9o.  We have 33.5% equity in a 3 way pot. Giving the blinds 2 random hands, we have 20.3% equity in a 5 way pot. So our equity is basically completely neutral in a 3 way pot or a 5 way pot. We don't gain money by forcing the blinds out (in fact we lose some b/c we isolate against the top of their range), and we don't lose money by keeping the blinds in.  We still win our fair share of pots either way.

If you are saying, "in my game the limpers are looser", it still barely matters. Giving the 2 limpers totally random hands (they are limping their T2o, 83o, 25o, etc.) we have 36.7% in a 3 way pot. We just aren't beating their preflop range big enough to raise to win the pot right now, only if they are making significant postflop mistakes IMO. By contrast, against 2 random hands, JTs is 41.9%, KJo is 43%, AJs is 48.1%. To compare pairs, 77 has 46.4% and 99 has 53.5% equity. All of those hands are much better to raise here than 44, both b/c our edge is bigger but even more importantly, they flop better, and are more likely to have much more equity on flops. T73 flop against QT, we still win a decent amount of the time with KJ or AJ, but 44 is forked. 

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Also one of our dealers told us of another dealer a few tables away that had dealt a joker. 

Man, in all the poker I have played never heard of that one. Silly. Jokers wild!

[Chewbacca 7767]

How much truth is there to the rumor that this will be the last year of the WSOP at the Rio?  This was my first time hitting up that event and they need to make a change.  Played in the 1pm daily deepstack Friday and Saturday (sadly did not cash in either one, but my buddy cashed in the Saturday 4pm).  Friday was cool that we were playing in the main room and could take in the event while playing.  Saturday we got seated in what the ticket said was the poker room in the casino.  But we weren't in the poker room (which is terrible anyway).  We were in an abandoned restaurant down the hall from the poker room.  Felt like we were playing in a home game in someone's basement.  Definitely did not feel like a WSOP event.  Being somewhere that can actually host all the tournaments they are running would be a big plus.

[Lurch 5922]

It’s highly unlikely that $25 is needed here. I’d guess $10-15 probably does the trick at most $1/2 tables. If $25 was required, I’d probably sit on my hands and just wait for AK, QQ+ because apparently it’s a stupid loose $1/2 game and I’m getting paid.

I’m not trying to steal $7, but I don’t mind that occasional outcome from a $10-15 raise.

I assume I’ll outplay my opponents post flop when I have the button and am the aggressor. The equity calculations need to include a lot of fold equity from my opponents (again, in $1/2)

[deech 2272]

58 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

How much truth is there to the rumor that this will be the last year of the WSOP at the Rio?  This was my first time hitting up that event and they need to make a change.  Played in the 1pm daily deepstack Friday and Saturday (sadly did not cash in either one, but my buddy cashed in the Saturday 4pm).  Friday was cool that we were playing in the main room and could take in the event while playing.  Saturday we got seated in what the ticket said was the poker room in the casino.  But we weren't in the poker room (which is terrible anyway).  We were in an abandoned restaurant down the hall from the poker room.  Felt like we were playing in a home game in someone's basement.  Definitely did not feel like a WSOP event.  Being somewhere that can actually host all the tournaments they are running would be a big plus.

100%.  Rio was sold to someone else.  As a result, 100% it's being moved per the reports I've read.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

The Rio has been for sale forever. Caesars cut back drastically on the upkeep awhile ago. Multiple rumors over the past year about a likely buyer, a one-off casino owner or possibly MLB ownership to knock it down for a new baseball stadium. The latest rumor I see doesn’t have Rio as the possible MLB site, now the speculation for that is south of Mandalay Bay.

 

As to the WSOP, Caesars is building new convention space on the strip behind the Linq area and that is one rumored spot for WSOP. Another is Bally’s.

 

El Dorado is rumored to be lining up a merger with Caesars. Not sure if that will include Rio or if it will be sold off.

 

[Irieguy 1059]

Sooner did a great job explaining the rationale and benefits of calling with small pocket pairs. Lurch, your logic in other areas is impeccable but your aversion to multiway pots is too great. I suggest trying to re-read his posts without worrying so much about multiway pots. He has lots of great points. 

[TXSooner518 2438]

17 hours ago, Lurch said:

It’s highly unlikely that $25 is needed here. I’d guess $10-15 probably does the trick at most $1/2 tables. If $25 was required, I’d probably sit on my hands and just wait for AK, QQ+ because apparently it’s a stupid loose $1/2 game and I’m getting paid.

I’m not trying to steal $7, but I don’t mind that occasional outcome from a $10-15 raise.

I assume I’ll outplay my opponents post flop when I have the button and am the aggressor. The equity calculations need to include a lot of fold equity from my opponents (again, in $1/2)

In my playing and dealing experience, $10 is going at least 3 ways every time, depending on what the blinds do. $15 will often do it, but that starts to get to the point where our risk outweighs our reward in many games.

What would you do if it went $10-call in front of you and we are btn with 44? Are you flatting the $10 or 3b? 

The equity calcs are just showing that we don't have an equity advantage over our opponents' range with 44, so we need to consider why we are raising 44 but not, say, 96o or K4s. 

I agree we add fold equity when we raise, but we also open ourselves up to a 3b, and we are also isolating against the strongest parts of our opponents' range with a hand that isn't doing that great against the entirety of the range.

15 hours ago, Irieguy said:

Sooner did a great job explaining the rationale and benefits of calling with small pocket pairs. Lurch, your logic in other areas is impeccable but your aversion to multiway pots is too great. I suggest trying to re-read his posts without worrying so much about multiway pots. He has lots of great points. 

Thanks! I agree that Lurch has a very solid poker mind, and I feel stronger about my tourney strategy than my cash, so to be clear, I am offering discussion to help everyone, including myself, rather than thinking I am offering any kind of "official" answer ha.

The aversion to multi-way pots I think is a partial manifestation of a mistake every player makes from time to time - worrying about winning pots instead of winning money. I made an error in a game that illustrates it so well, I used it as part of my 2p2 username to remind myself. I was playing a 4/8 limit game 15 years ago, and literally everyone limped to me in the big blind. I had AcAs. I just checked, after all, why bother raising, if no one was going to fold?  Raising wouldn't help me win the pot. BUT, it absolutely would have helped me win MONEY.  I had about 35% equity in the pot. That feels shitty if you're focused on winning the pot. OMG I'm gonna lose 2/3 of the time! But, when you are putting in 10% of the money, and getting 35% back, that's an absolutely phenomenal situation. By raising, I'm putting $4 in, and on average getting $14 back (35% of the extra $40 in the pot when I raise). It's SUCH a clear raise but many players don't do it. 

You see this concept in action every time some guy makes it 5-10x pre with JJ. They win the pot a lot, but it is a small pot, and then they get stacked on the times when someone has QQ+.

Same here. Lurch's strategy of raising wins the POT more often than my strategy of usually calling does. But I think my strategy makes more money over the long run. I often am just folding the flop, losing $2. Lurch is losing $40 on this hand waaayyy more often than I am, by losing after raising pre and c-betting flop. You have to win a lot of money to make up those $40 losses. 

I would look at it like this:

If we ARE going to flop a set, we want as many opponents as possible, so we can get paid. If the flop is going to come K74, we want someone to have a king. That's more likely with 4 opponents than with one. That's offset somewhat by the fact that the pot is bigger when Lurch flops a set. So when his opponent misses, at least he got the preflop bet. We also want to be able to get in by the river, which is why I like raising more when we are deeper, b/c we need a better SPR ratio to be able to get in by the river.If we ARE NOT going to flop a set, in most situations the hand is going to be difficult to play, even headsup, unless our opponents make the mistakes I described before, where they see too many flops and then fold too many flops. But say the flop is T-7-2. We are headsup. You bet $20 into $35 and get called. Turn is a 5, opp checks. Are you giving up? Barreling the turn? If we check, we are often giving a free card to hands like AJ or 89, or losing the opportunity to push hands like 87, 55, or 66 out of the hand. But betting continues to bloat the pot with 3rd pair when we are also beat a reasonable amount of the time (again why opp postflop tendency is HUGE in deciding how to play pre).

What if a K or A comes on the turn instead, are we now going to turn our hand into a bluff to try to get him to fold a ten?

Or take this actual hand. If the flop was QT3 instead of QT4, we would have folded to the BB's bet, despite the fact that we have the best hand.

Since 44 is going to be hard to play when we do not flop a set regardless of number of opponents, we should work on maximizing the money we make when we do flop a set.

 

[Chewbacca 7767]

While I am in no way the caliber of player that Sooner or Lurch is, I play my small pairs the same way Sooner does.  I want to see a flop cheap so I can get away from it post flop if I don't hit.  Hate feeling like I have to continue with 3rd pair because I'm already into it for $30.

[GopherRock 1765]

So what happens if the joker comes up? Immediate misdeal with all bets returned?

I'm enjoying the chatter about how to play the low pocket pairs. 

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

While I am in no way the caliber of player that Sooner or Lurch is, I play my small pairs the same way Sooner does.  I want to see a flop cheap so I can get away from it post flop if I don't hit.  Hate feeling like I have to continue with 3rd pair because I'm already into it for $30.

Same for me

[Lurch 5922]

While I am in no way the caliber of player that Sooner or Lurch is, I play my small pairs the same way Sooner does.  I want to see a flop cheap so I can get away from it post flop if I don't hit.  Hate feeling like I have to continue with 3rd pair because I'm already into it for $30.

You’re not “into it for” anything. What you’ve contributed to a pot is never interesting.

3rd pair is fantastic when they’re chasing draws and folding irrelevant suited connectors and missed sets.

[Lurch 5922]

So what happens if the joker comes up? Immediate misdeal with all bets returned?
I'm enjoying the chatter about how to play the low pocket pairs. 

I’d guess it would be declared a misdeal for a fouled deck. No one could trust the rest of the deck so it wouldn’t be fair to players in the hand