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Posted
14 hours ago, Hard Times said:

1000 ICE fires release less poisonous toxins than 1 EV fire, including cyanide. And there's no way Houston will be able to power 5 million EV's in the next 25 years.

How will these goshdarned horseless carriages ever take off. We wont have enough fuel or even fueling stations for them. 
 

3403074.jpg.resize.710x399.jpg
 

How will the world ever generate power satisfying societys demand? Never been done before. 
 


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Posted
On 7/16/2024 at 11:57 AM, Hard Times said:

I have more evidence that one can imagine, but I've chosen not to waste my time with you.

I would love to agree with you but this exchange was fucking embarrassing 

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Posted
On 8/18/2024 at 6:14 AM, Orale said:

I saw the new 4 Runner the other day. Looks like a lego car. Still exponentially more attractive than the CT.

Derka in a dress is exponentially more attractive than the CT.

  • 3 months later...
Posted

Sold my meager TSLA holdings today.  Cleared a modest tree fiddy.  Sold out now because the stock price has become completely divorced from reality.  If I wanna gamble my retirement on a meme stock, I’ll buy GameStop.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Sold my meager TSLA holdings today.  Cleared a modest tree fiddy.  Sold out now because the stock price has become completely divorced from reality.  If I wanna gamble my retirement on a meme stock, I’ll buy GameStop.

It’s been divorced from reality for a long long time. And can stay so for a long time longer. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

It’s been divorced from reality for a long long time. And can stay so for a long time longer. 

Had a finance guy I know send me an article about how the market can stay wrong longer than you can afford to get against it. 

It was an actual hard copy article, that I was I could remember enough to find it online.

Posted
7 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Had a finance guy I know send me an article about how the market can stay wrong longer than you can afford to get against it. 

It was an actual hard copy article, that I was I could remember enough to find it online.

It always cracks me up to read common wisdom like the above, and juxtapose it with the other common "wisdom of the free market" trope.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”  John Maynard Keynes

Reference w/ additional background.  

 

John Maynard Keynes' famous quote, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," emphasizes the unpredictable nature of financial markets and the risks of betting against them, even when you believe they are mispriced or irrational.

Keynes suggests that:

  1. Irrational Market Behavior: Financial markets don't always behave logically or in line with fundamental economic indicators. Prices may fluctuate wildly due to speculation, investor sentiment, or external shocks that don't align with actual economic conditions.
  2. Risk of Timing the Market: Even if you're correct in assessing the market is irrational (e.g., a stock price is overvalued), it's challenging to predict when that irrational behavior will correct itself. The market can continue to behave irrationally longer than an investor can sustain losses from being on the "right" side of the trade too early.
  3. Solvency Risk: If an investor places a bet expecting the market to revert to rationality, they can lose a lot of money if the market continues its irrational behavior. A fundamentally sound investor can go bankrupt (lose solvency) before the market corrects itself.

In short, Keynes warns that even when you believe the market is misbehaving, it may continue to do so for longer than your financial position can tolerate. This highlights the importance of timing and the perils of assuming that markets will quickly align with rational expectations.

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Posted

Well we found out that the folks that were buying Tesla, now are not driving demand any longer. With a 1.1% decline in sales for the first time in 9 years.  I know that the long Tesla play is governmental influence and roxotaxi's that do not yet exist.  But isn't the fundamental business of car companies selling cars?   Too early for me to make a hard bet against Tesla, but where are the sales gonna come from now that the brand has lost it's appeal to so many who were buying Teslas?

Posted
34 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Well we found out that the folks that were buying Tesla, now are not driving demand any longer. With a 1.1% decline in sales for the first time in 9 years.  I know that the long Tesla play is governmental influence and roxotaxi's that do not yet exist.  But isn't the fundamental business of car companies selling cars?   Too early for me to make a hard bet against Tesla, but where are the sales gonna come from now that the brand has lost it's appeal to so many who were buying Teslas?

USPS delivery cybertrucks

  • 1 month later...
Posted
On 12/21/2024 at 6:57 PM, Parliament said:

Sold my meager TSLA holdings today.  Cleared a modest tree fiddy.  Sold out now because the stock price has become completely divorced from reality.  If I wanna gamble my retirement on a meme stock, I’ll buy GameStop.

And when's the right time to short this crap?  This week or closer to midterm elections?

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Posted
11 hours ago, Parliament said:

And when's the right time to short this crap?  This week or closer to midterm elections?

Good luck on short timing. There is no right time. The stock has been divorced from fundamentals for damn near 10 years now. He has a cult, and teamed up with another guy with a cult like following. If it needs price support now, there's always the sovereign wealth fund. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would it be wrong to carry around $7 eggs and throw them at parked Cyber Truck windshields? Asking for a friend.

I mean, you could......or you could make yourself some delicious brefast tacos for lunch. But you do you, king. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I mean, you could......or you could make yourself some delicious brefast tacos for lunch. But you do you, king. 

✊🏾🥚

Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would it be wrong to carry around $7 eggs and throw them at parked Cyber Truck windshields? Asking for a friend.

I would think driving one of those turds is punishment enough.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Would it be wrong to carry around $7 eggs and throw them at parked Cyber Truck windshields? Asking for a friend.

It would shatter the windshield.  And the splatter would corrode the body.

Posted

Seriously, Tesla needs to just boot Elon out of the company somehow. Fuck this guy. Ever since I learned about Tesla in 2009, I wanted an electric car from them. I just waited until they came out with the Model 3 and saved up enough to where it made sense financially, and I got one in 2021. I love the car, and I just finished paying the loan off last month. Now I have to worry about people thinking I support Elon and all he stands for just because I wanted an electric car with the best charging infrastructure. I hate putting bumper stickers on my cars, but I might have to give in and get one of those Anti-Elon stickers.

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Posted

Tesla is the best electric vehicle on the road by a large margin. TSLA is very attractive at this level IMO. Their robo taxis will be a game changer.  And very likely their optimus as well. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Tesla is the best electric vehicle on the road by a large margin. TSLA is very attractive at this level IMO. Their robo taxis will be a game changer.  And very likely their optimus as well. 

I see the Waymo driver-less cars all over my neighborhood. Their tech is light years ahead of Tesla right now and I wouldn’t get in one.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I see the Waymo driver-less cars all over my neighborhood. Their tech is light years ahead of Tesla right now and I wouldn’t get in one.

Might want to do some more research. Quite the opposite:

 

Tesla: Over 5 million vehicles on the road collecting real-world data daily, covering billions of miles.

Waymo: Limited to a few thousand autonomous taxis operating in select cities.

 

Tesla: Uses vision-only AI (cameras + neural networks) to mimic human driving.

Waymo: Relies on LiDAR + HD mapping, which requires pre-mapped, controlled environments.

 

Tesla: No expensive LiDAR, making self-driving tech scalable to mass-market vehicles.

Waymo: High-cost LiDAR sensors and detailed maps make scaling slow and expensive.

Posted
Just now, Tailgate said:

Might want to do some more research. Quite the opposite:

 

Tesla: Over 5 million vehicles on the road collecting real-world data daily, covering billions of miles.

Waymo: Limited to a few thousand autonomous taxis operating in select cities.

 

Tesla: Uses vision-only AI (cameras + neural networks) to mimic human driving.

Waymo: Relies on LiDAR + HD mapping, which requires pre-mapped, controlled environments.

 

Tesla: No expensive LiDAR, making self-driving tech scalable to mass-market vehicles.

Waymo: High-cost LiDAR sensors and detailed maps make scaling slow and expensive.

Yes I’m aware. I drive a model 3. I don’t trust either system fully. And going fast and breaking stuff, as Elon is wont to do, doesn’t inspire confidence in me. But you do you. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yes I’m aware. I drive a model 3. I don’t trust either system fully. And going fast and breaking stuff, as Elon is wont to do, doesn’t inspire confidence in me. But you do you. 

 

Just making sure people reading this thread know it's Tesla that is light years ahead. And, yes I trust my Tesla.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yes I’m aware. I drive a model 3. 

The free AP or nerfed EAP you drive is not the same software stack as FSD. 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Tailgate said:

 

Just making sure people reading this thread know it's Tesla that is light years ahead. And, yes I trust my Tesla.

Claiming Tesla is light years ahead of everyone else is just more of Elon's bullshit. The same guy that has been claiming FSD was coming the next year in teslas every year since 2016. Are they a leader? Yes. But just because Elon says something, it doesnt make it true. 

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-realizes-all-teslas-self-driving-computers

2 hours ago, Tailgate said:

Might want to do some more research. Quite the opposite:

 

Tesla: Over 5 million vehicles on the road collecting real-world data daily, covering billions of miles.

Waymo: Limited to a few thousand autonomous taxis operating in select cities.

 

Tesla: Uses vision-only AI (cameras + neural networks) to mimic human driving.

Waymo: Relies on LiDAR + HD mapping, which requires pre-mapped, controlled environments.

 

Tesla: No expensive LiDAR, making self-driving tech scalable to mass-market vehicles.

Waymo: High-cost LiDAR sensors and detailed maps make scaling slow and expensive.

Your second and third points have nothing to do with who is "ahead." In fact there is still some debate as to whether Tesla's camera only approach will be viable to attain level 5 autonomy. Elon bailed on Lidar because of cost, and he wanted FSD in 2016. Its now 2025, Tesla still doesnt have FSD and the price of Lidar components have fallen drastically since Elon made that call. Estimates are that BMW is paying $1K per car for Lidar today. Volumes will be much higher moving forward making the cost difference trivial when new cars average $50K in price

Quote

In the ongoing development of LiDAR technology, the primary focus is on balancing distance and cost. Once the 200–300 m distance requirement is met, the added benefits of higher resolution and an even larger range, while desirable, are somewhat limited compared to the urgency for reduced costs. Over the past decade, LiDAR costs have plummeted from over $10,000 to the current range of $500 to $1,000. This downward trend is expected to continue, potentially reaching the $100 range in the coming years. Global LiDAR penetration now is in the order of 0.5% of all passenger cars sold. We anticipate a surge in this figure to exceed 10% as the selling price of LiDAR approaches $100.

 

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
32 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Your second and third points have nothing to do with who is "ahead." In fact there is still some debate as to whether Tesla's camera only approach will be viable to attain level 5 autonomy. Elon bailed on Lidar because of cost, and he wanted FSD in 2016. Its now 2025, Tesla still doesnt have FSD and the price of Lidar components have fallen drastically since Elon made that call. Estimates are that BMW is paying $1K per car for Lidar today. Volumes will be much higher moving forward making the cost difference trivial when new cars average $50K in price

 

You’re citing unit costs for Lidar. A car would need a suite of cameras to have complete spatial coverage, say 5*$1k.

And lidar cant see colors to read signs and road markings (whereas cameras can infer shapes and vectors from 30fps combo of multiple cameras).  

Hence Waymo combines their lidars with cameras and radars for total autonomy hardware cost of some est $50k+.

Tesla’s previously vague FSD promises are getting more specific: unsupervised fsd service in austin, and cybercabs are running around their lots (rather than a single static prototype). Its only a few more months till the proverbial tide goes out and they have to show their cards. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Claiming Tesla is light years ahead of everyone else is just more of Elon's bullshit. The same guy that has been claiming FSD was coming the next year in teslas every year since 2016. Are they a leader? Yes. But just because Elon says something, it doesnt make it true. 

https://futurism.com/elon-musk-realizes-all-teslas-self-driving-computers

Your second and third points have nothing to do with who is "ahead." In fact there is still some debate as to whether Tesla's camera only approach will be viable to attain level 5 autonomy. Elon bailed on Lidar because of cost, and he wanted FSD in 2016. Its now 2025, Tesla still doesnt have FSD and the price of Lidar components have fallen drastically since Elon made that call. Estimates are that BMW is paying $1K per car for Lidar today. Volumes will be much higher moving forward making the cost difference trivial when new cars average $50K in price

 

Tesla FSD (call it whatever you want) is unreal.

The over-the-air updates even in the last few months have been game changing.

I can go anywhere to anywhere with zero manual wheel, brake or acceleration assistance. I’ve been using it 10x more than this time last year.

Just watch. Please bump this thread when they are no longer leading the EV race.

There is nothing the argue here. Take your emotions to the cloak room.

 

Edited by Tailgate
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

You’re citing unit costs for Lidar. A car would need a suite of cameras to have complete spatial coverage, say 5*$1k.

All I know is lidar costs are falling fast as volume picks up. I have seen multiple references online speculating Lidar sensors in the $200-300 range in 2025. As I am not a purchasing agent for an automobile company negotiating volume buys, I have to trust these reports are accurate. Mercedes decided to buy in China. But costs will come down from all manufacturers. 

https://archive.ph/jx2lt

Quote

China's Hesai Group , the world's largest maker of lidar sensors for autonomous driving, said it plans to slash the price of its key product by half next year which should lead to far wider adoption of the technology in electric cars.

"We are moving to a stage where millions of cars sold annually are equipped with lidar," Chief Executive David Li told Reuters in an interview.

Halving the price would make the use of lidar appealing even for cheaper EVs priced below 150,000 yuan ($20,000), he added.

Quote

"We should see this as the popularization of lidar as a standard safety component for EVs," Li said, likening its use to that of airbags and safety belts.

Hesai's next-generation lidar product ATX for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) will be sold next year for under $200, half the price of the current AT128 model.

And I realize that Lidar is a component of a complete system along with cameras and radar. Lidar USED to be prohibitively expensive. That will not be the case in the future when they are shipping on millions of cars. Cars wont be coming to market with those Waymo looking instruments strapped on top of the car. they will be next generation sensors from Innoviz, Hesai, Luminar that are inconspicuous and cost hundreds not thousands. If Lidar provides capabilities that a vision-only system  can not meet, a few hundred bucks per vehicle adder isnt going to prohibit the use of the technology. Especially if all auto manufacturers gravitate to a subscription model for FSD. The cost of Lidar can be easily buried/covered by that alone. 

Edited by Blotto
Posted

Fwiw

I have a family member who heads up the computational neuroscience department at a big name West Coast University.  He also owns a company dealing with visual data intake and AI decision making. He's consulted with Tesla and their competitors. He says in that area Tesla is currently at least a generation ahead of everyone else. 

 

We don't like Elon- I've been calling for him to go to prison ever since 2009- but we love our 3. FSD isn't perfect but it's quite amazing.

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