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AeroHorn

By AeroHorn
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Fozzz
Fozzz

I think Elon's true genius (besides being born into a family who owns a Zambian emerald mine) lies in endlessly sucking up billions of our tax dollars so he can build toys for upper-middle class urban

SuperSport
SuperSport

I mean, what the hell was wrong with this concept??   "Nope, design me a pentagon with wheels."

4th&Five
4th&Five

Picked up today 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,304

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Doesn't seem like flyover country is embracing EV's much.

A listing of cities by absolute number of registered EVs is going to disfavor flyover country, which doesn't have a lot of people or big cities.  Actually, I just read the article. It says: "we set out to investigate which places are best suited to cater to the EV mindset and started by considering the most populous 100 metros." That's going to exclude the vast majority of flyover country from the list entirely. Also, the article is a year and half old and almost certainly based on even older data. 

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LW Goatman

LW Goatman 1,129

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I've been on and off about buying a Tesla since right before the pandemic. One of my motivating factors was the amount I had to drive, but now I'm fully remote. The tax incentive back on the table has me considering a 3 or Y. I have several friends with 3s and one with a Y and they love the vehicles.

One question I have, pertaining to a youtube video I watched, is the true range you get from the vehicle. This guy was saying his 3 always fell well short of the range indicated by the vehicle. I.e. it said he had 120 mile charge left but he could get 70, etc. Does the range indicator hold true? Also, he lived in a cold environment (I'm in Texas so not a huge concern) and said that just zapped his range. Any thoughts are appreciated, I'll hang up and listen. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,304

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1 hour ago, LW Goatman said:

I've been on and off about buying a Tesla since right before the pandemic. One of my motivating factors was the amount I had to drive, but now I'm fully remote. The tax incentive back on the table has me considering a 3 or Y. I have several friends with 3s and one with a Y and they love the vehicles.

One question I have, pertaining to a youtube video I watched, is the true range you get from the vehicle. This guy was saying his 3 always fell well short of the range indicated by the vehicle. I.e. it said he had 120 mile charge left but he could get 70, etc. Does the range indicator hold true? Also, he lived in a cold environment (I'm in Texas so not a huge concern) and said that just zapped his range. Any thoughts are appreciated, I'll hang up and listen. 

I find the range indicator pretty accurate for a single trip. Multiple trips over a single charge will net out less range than the initial projection largely due to the very small battery drain while sitting AND the additional battery drain that occurs at each startup. You'll get decreased range when running the heater (and to a lesser extent, the air conditioner). But that decrease will pretty quickly get reflected in the indicator. You'll get more of a decrease if doing multiple short trips (due to extra energy when the heater is first starting) versus one long trip. Newer Model 3s/Model Ys have replaced the electric resistance heater with a heat pump. This has substantially decreased the range hit when running the heater for external temperatures above freezing. Once you get significantly below freezing, the heat pump's efficiency drops, although it should always be at or above the resistance heater's efficiency.  

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52-80

52-80 19,377

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1 hour ago, LW Goatman said:

One question I have, pertaining to a youtube video I watched, is the true range you get from the vehicle. This guy was saying his 3 always fell well short of the range indicated by the vehicle. I.e. it said he had 120 mile charge left but he could get 70, etc. Does the range indicator hold true?

Short answer is that the range indicator is over-optimistic. 

People will say that all vehicles underperform their rated efficiency, but I’ll say that in my experience some are better than others. 

Longer answer is that electric cars are is more speed-sensitive than others. Combustion cars have high overhead losses, their peak efficiency is around 55mph, with slower tapering losses.  Electric cars have peak efficiency at around 40-45mph, with steeper losses as a function of speed. Changing your highway speed has a larger effect on the realized range. 

The practical answer is that if you have access to home charging,  it doesnt matter. 99% of your trips will be fully covered by the starting range available to you each morning. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46,151

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50 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The practical answer is that if you have access to home charging,  it doesnt matter. 99% of your trips will be fully covered by the starting range available to you each morning. 

This.  And if you are on a road trip, it adjusts on the drive.  Ideally, you wouldn't be planning to go all the way to 0 before you got to a charging station anyway.  Range anxiety really isn't a thing once you start driving every day.  

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WBT

WBT 20,966

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https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-owners-china-protest-against-surprise-price-cuts-they-missed-2023-01-07/

Quote

SHANGHAI, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Hundreds of Tesla (TSLA.O) owners gathered at the automaker's showrooms and distribution centres in China over the weekend, demanding rebates and credit after sudden price cuts they said meant they had overpaid for electric cars they bought earlier.

On Saturday, about 200 recent buyers of the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 gathered at a Tesla delivery centre in Shanghai to protest against the U.S. carmaker's decision to slash prices for the second time in three months on Friday.

Many said they had believed that prices Tesla charged for its cars late last year would not be cut as abruptly or as deeply as the automaker just announced in a move to spur sales and support production at its Shanghai plant. The scheduled expiration of a government subsidy at the end of 2022 also drove many to finalize their purchases.

Lulz, someone played a trick.  And rebates?

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,304

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2 hours ago, hornian said:

Tesla just lowered prices on all its models in the US as well:

Probably to meet the new tax incentives. Nice for new buyers, but anyone who took delivery in the last few months got hosed. 

Wow, the performance 3 is now basically the old cost of the long range. And I see Tesla doesn't currently offer the long range model as an option. And seeing the Y at essentially the same price as the 3 is pretty shocking. I can't think of the last time an SUV was priced similarly to a similarly styled/optioned sedan. 

Still love my car even though Elon is crazy. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46,151

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3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Wow, the performance 3 is now basically the old cost of the long range. And I see Tesla doesn't currently offer the long range model as an option. And seeing the Y at essentially the same price as the 3 is pretty shocking. I can't think of the last time an SUV was priced similarly to a similarly styled/optioned sedan. 

Still love my car even though Elon is crazy. 

What is the range of the performance?  Weird that long range isn’t an option. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,304

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10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

What is the range of the performance?  Weird that long range isn’t an option. 

EPA puts the newer models at 315 miles. That's about the same as when the long range originally came out. I believe the newer long range models are rated closer to 350 miles. The difference is basically entirely driven by the wheels/tires (18 inch vs 20 inch for performance).

I'm assuming, given the price drop for the performance, that Tesla is simplifying production by focusing on the Performance and Rear-Wheel drive models for now. And it's hard to see where the long range would slot pricewise between the two of them. 

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Your Mom

Your Mom 4,964

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They stopped taking orders for the 3 Long Range a while back because the orders were backlogged so far.

I need a new car in a year or so and would love it to be an EV.  I drive to Houston and back once a week and I’d like to be able to do it with minimal charging.  I’d also like to spend less than 60k or so because I’m just not a big car guy and I have other priorities for my money than cars.  Kia EV6 has solid reviews but doesn’t have the range of the Tesla 3LR. The Ioniq also has good reviews but is a ugly as bowling shoes.  The 3LR seems to fit the bill perfectly except I’d have to give my money to that crazy fucker and that’s not real appealing to me.  

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46,151

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7 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

They stopped taking orders for the 3 Long Range a while back because the orders were backlogged so far.

I need a new car in a year or so and would love it to be an EV.  I drive to Houston and back once a week and I’d like to be able to do it with minimal charging.  I’d also like to spend less than 60k or so because I’m just not a big car guy and I have other priorities for my money than cars.  Kia EV6 has solid reviews but doesn’t have the range of the Tesla 3LR. The Ioniq also has good reviews but is an ugly as bowling shoes.  The 3LR seems to fit the bill perfectly except I’d have to give my money to that crazy fucker and that’s not real appealing to me.  

The supercharging network is the only feasible way to do that drive in a fairly quick way right now. If that’s your main usage, you should be looking at Tesla. 

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royiv

royiv 9,776

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

The supercharging network is the only feasible way to do that drive in a fairly quick way right now. If that’s your main usage, you should be looking at Tesla. 

I'm not giving a dime to a company owned by Elon.

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royiv

royiv 9,776

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1 hour ago, Your Mom said:

Not to me.  It looks like an average dime-a-dozen sedan to me.  I don’t find it particularly attractive or ugly, just basic.   

Agree with this. Teslas are not attractive vehicles and the designs are not aging well. The interior of the 3 is downright sterile.

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Blotto

Blotto 24,011

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Tesla (TSLA) shares are lower today as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is opening an investigation into the Model Y SUV over an issue with steering wheels that may come off when the vehicle is in operation.

NHTSA’s ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) is aware of two separate reports of a “complete detachment” of the steering wheel from the steering column in 2023 Tesla Model Y vehicles. Sudden separation apparently occurred when force was exerted on the steering wheel during use, overcoming resistance of the “friction fit” that kept the wheel in place.

No big deal, as long as you keep holding the wheel in your hands, FSD should keep you safe. 

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Chopper

Chopper 17,430

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On 3/8/2023 at 9:09 AM, Blotto said:

No big deal, as long as you keep holding the wheel in your hands, and basically doing everything you should be doing when you drive except possibly you won't have to move your hands on the wheel, FSD Elon's software and cameras should keep you safe. 

fify

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Blotto

Blotto 24,011

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Tesla Earnings

Tesla earnings fell 21% vs. a year earlier, in line with views. Revenue climbed 24% to $23.31, just below FactSet views for $23.73 billion. That was down sequentially from Q4's $24.3 billion.

Major price cuts boosted demand, but at the expense of earnings and profit margins.

Gross margins tumbled to 19.3% vs. 23.8% in Q4 and 29.1% a year earlier. Auto gross margins excluding regulatory credits and leases skidded to 18.3% from 23.8% in Q4.

Tesla had said 20% would be a "floor" for auto gross margins excluding credits and leasing.

Free cash flow tumbled 80% vs. a year earlier to $441 million vs. expectations for $3.2 billion. Tesla had negative cash flow excluding $521 million in auto regulatory credits.

Continued price cuts will likely keep pressuring gross margins going forward.

Tesla cut prices in the U.S. for the second time this month late Tuesday. Model Y prices were cut by $3,000, starting at $46,990. The base Model 3 price was cut by $2,000, to $39,990. Most Model 3 and Y variants are eligible for $7,500 in tax credits, but starting April 18 the base-model Model 3 only gets $3,750.

Tesla also has cut prices in Europe and some other key markets in April.

Elon Musk Signals More Margin Pain

On the Tesla earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said that he's going to stress higher production, indicating further price cuts could be ahead. He said it's better to ship a lot of cars at a lower margin now, perhaps even at zero profit, then reap higher margins when Tesla achieves full sell-driving. Musk said he expects Tesla to achieve full autonomy in 2023. He's forecast full autonomy for several years.

Musk also said there will be a Cybertruck "delivery event" in the third quarter. It's unclear when Cybertruck mass production will start.

Tesla bulls also have high hopes for the company's energy storage business. Energy generation and storage revenue leapt 148% to $1.53 billion in Q1.

The justification for Tesla's stock premium of late has been "margins". Now with competition just starting to ship product, Tesla can no longer name it's price. Its hard to take anything Musk says seriously, but if Tesla chooses to sell cars at zero margin banking on FSD revenues in the future, I suspect TSLA  will have a hard time maintaining a 45 P/E when the industry standard is ~5. A price war will hurt all the Pure EV Startups (LCID,RIVN, etc), but Ford, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, Honda etc... are just getting  started in the low end EV's and Porsche, Mercedes,  BMW, Audi are gonna flood the high end. Those companies are going to be difficult to beat in a price war. 

Its an interesting statement for sure. If that's the direction TSLA chooses (or is forced to go), good luck with that stock price, Elmo. 

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Party_Taco

Party_Taco 3,889

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Those of you with a Powerwall… what did you pay to have it installed? Got a quote for 5k which seems pretty steep, especially with $1500 allocated to permitting.

Gonna reach out to a few others tomorrow but would love to know what the going rate in Austin is at the moment (or in the last couple years).

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hornian

hornian 5,289

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13 hours ago, Party_Taco said:

Those of you with a Powerwall… what did you pay to have it installed? Got a quote for 5k which seems pretty steep, especially with $1500 allocated to permitting.

Gonna reach out to a few others tomorrow but would love to know what the going rate in Austin is at the moment (or in the last couple years).

Last year I basically got quoted $20K to install 2 power walls. So I passed.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18,304

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On 4/20/2023 at 9:21 PM, Party_Taco said:

Those of you with a Powerwall… what did you pay to have it installed? Got a quote for 5k which seems pretty steep, especially with $1500 allocated to permitting.

Gonna reach out to a few others tomorrow but would love to know what the going rate in Austin is at the moment (or in the last couple years).

Just the install? I think my installation cost with 2 was around $1,500, but that was with my installer also adding panels. 

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On 4/29/2023 at 5:37 AM, 52-80 said:

Theres no subscription for range

No, but there is a upgrade that you can pay for to unlock a longer range. It's already on the car, but only accessible via an extra fee.

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 11,129

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So no discussion of Ford and GM basically waving the white flag on charging standards?  Now that the big boys are on board, Tesla's NACS is going to be the standard in North America.  All other manufacturers will follow soon.  Tesla is going to bank a LOT for licensing and access to charging infrastructure.  

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46,151

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9 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

So no discussion of Ford and GM basically waving the white flag on charging standards?  Now that the big boys are on board, Tesla's NACS is going to be the standard in North America.  All other manufacturers will follow soon.  Tesla is going to bank a LOT for licensing and access to charging infrastructure.  

 

That was, imo, the best thing Tesla ever did. Build out the infrastructure knowing that if they started it and just made others pay for it, a) it would entice others to follow suit in building EVs and b) that it would be a huge revenue stream down the road. 

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52-80

52-80 19,377

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12 hours ago, Guadaloopy said:

So no discussion of Ford and GM basically waving the white flag on charging standards?  Now that the big boys are on board, Tesla's NACS is going to be the standard in North America.  All other manufacturers will follow soon.  Tesla is going to bank a LOT for licensing and access to charging infrastructure. 

I don't think the real margins are to be made from premium on the charging, and actually the licensing and standards are supposed to be provided for free.

What this will do is accelerate buying of EVs in general, and for literally every manufacturer their EV business is at the moment a HUGE money-losing proposition.  Look at the unit economics when Ford split off its financial reporting.  In the near term, Tesla is helping those guys tie their own nooses.  (So much for "competition"....) 

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Blotto

Blotto 24,011

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On 9/13/2023 at 1:36 PM, Mack Tripper said:

The upgrade is for increased horsepower not range. 

Tesla has sold cars in the past with additional battery capacity that could only be unlocked at a later time through software upgrades(either free or paid): 

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/my-experience-upgrading-my-model-3-standard-range-to-the-plus.270570/ 

https://www.theverge.com/2016/5/5/11597508/tesla-model-s-70-battery-upgrade-pay-unlock-battery

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/09/tesla-remotely-extends-the-range-of-some-cars-to-help-with-irma/

Whether or not that is possible today, I dont know. 

 

 

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