Darwin, the Evolution of Football and the Big XII

[sushihorn 3233]

Organisms evolve over time.  They evolve especially quickly in response to extreme environmental pressures.  Some of those adaptations prove to be evolutionary dead ends and die out.  Others become dominant species as their adaptation gives them a major advantage in the new environment.  Established species can either adapt to new conditions themselves or die.

Football is a competitive game but football in the Big XII has become brutally competitive at nearly every level.  Look at the way coaches in the conference scrap for every bit of advantage using scheme, alignment, matchups, tempo, misdirection, deception, disguise and unique personnel.  It’s also impressive how diverse the ways Big XII coaches try to create advantage.  Despite the conference rep, Patterson, Snyder, Herman and Campbell do a lot of their damage on the defensive side of the ball.  We’ve seen TCU’s base nickel designed to spill runs to the overhang men and Orlando and Campbell’s creation of the 3-safety dime.  On offense, Herman creates advantage by adapting single-wing football, just as Snyder did before him.  Both also run SLOW tempo to frustrate fast-paced offenses but can mix it up with fast pace when appropriate.  And then there’s the Air Raid…

Leach brought the Air Raid to the Big XII and forced the other teams to adapt to it.  Many tried to defend it but in the end the dominant response was to emulate it just to keep up on the scoreboard.  Snyder ran his 4 corners offense to slow it down with the occasional backdoor cut for a quick strike.  But the first really successful response to the Air Raid was to move from predominantly man coverage to zone and mixed coverages.  Bend but don’t break became the order of the day as conference defenses would give up 400+ YPG and hope to hold under 30 points.   Then run heavy spread attacks at Texas and elsewhere began to counter the Air Raid with offense.  Ongoing development of spread passing added to the downfield threat and exploited mismatches all over the field.  Defenses had to adapt further to keep up.  Eventually, Big XII DCs could expect to see ZR, Air Raid and Single Wing offenses in consecutive games.  Those who could not think and adjust quickly didn’t last unless paired with an overwhelming offense.

In personnel, nearly all of the Big XII QBs are mobile; very few are NFL prototypes.  For the lower-ranked teams this is often making a virtue of necessity; for the higher ranked it’s a deliberate choice.  The unconventional Wes Welker redefined the slot WR position at the college and to some extent NFL levels.  LJH is also a mold breaker.  How many teams would start an Ewok at QB, much less earn him a Heisman?  At the risk of dredging up painful memories for our fan base, it’s not the first time OU burned people with a midget in the backfield either.  Speaking of dangerous midgets, KaVonte Turpin and Darren Sproles anyone?  Also at a time when the NFL is rapidly moving towards the “fast twitch” guys, the Big XII is causing problems with power forwards at the WR position.

The SEC, B1G and PAC’s top teams generally try to win with sound but conventional schemes and superior players.  tOSU is a partial exception on the offensive side of the ball.  The last man who tried to win that way in the Big XII was early Mack Brown.  Brown manhandled the incredibly talented but rather conventional Nebraska.  But he ran into a buzz saw of innovation from Bob Stoops, Mike Leach, Venables and Mangino at Oklahoma.  Mack was derided as Coach February for years until he too went unconventional with Zone Read based run spread.  Then he switched to a pass based spread attack when his personnel matched that scheme.  Even in Mack’s declining years, he was still trying with Harsin and _iaz, though mistakenly in the latter case.

You can see those other conferences slowly adapting to change that is centered in the Big XII.  Dabo is already there.  He rules the ACC with an offense incorporating spread concepts, disguised defenses and maximizes the very good talent recruited.  Credit Meyer as well as Herman for the power running spread but his defenses were still very vanilla.  Kirby Smart consulted with Tom Herman after Bama’s 2014 NCG loss.  Saban has replaced the 360 lb NT he used in 2009 with a guy under 300 lbs.  But the changes are both slow and at the margin.  I expect those changes to accelerate as Texas becomes more of a threat to their position.  OU should have been a warning shot across the bow but the SEC elite haven’t changed much in response.  I have no doubt they rationalize it as the Sooners being “just a finesse team” and aren’t taking the one loss too seriously.  They’re wrong to do so but that’s on them.  Do they really think a jump pass to the FB up the seam is a finesse play?  Maybe they should ask their safeties how they felt after tackling Sermon with a full head of steam.  It’s going to be harder to ignore Texas punching one of their elites in the mouth, taking away their running game and beating them by being tougher and more physical.  We’ll see how they respond

 

Already tl;dr but it's the offseason.  So many aspects to examine.  Discuss.

[Machinator 32097]

I'm watching what Georgia does with their newly vacated OC position carefully. This is a chance for them to become something other than a worse version of early 2010s Alabama.

[Js1 84996]

Only bone to pick - not all organisms evolve.  See our neighbors in Norman and College Station.

[sushihorn 3233]

47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Only bone to pick - not all organisms evolve.  See our neighbors in Norman and College Station.

Fair.  Evolution occurs within populations, not individuals.  Extreme environmental pressures accelerate the process for the population by killing of those who fail to adapt faster.  You're absolutely right about aggy and Okie but unfortunately there's little pressure on their fan bases to evolve.  One big reason I think aggy fans loved the SEC move so much was they got to hang with the "big dogs" (which are really more like Brontosauri) in a lower pressure SEC environment.  Change is hard and painful.  Sometimes it's easier to run away and hide.

edit: On further reflection, meth might be an adaptation to trailer park obesity.

Edited January 9, 2019 by sushihorn

[texifornia 56289]

54 minutes ago, Machinator said:

I'm watching what Georgia does with their newly vacated OC position carefully. This is a chance for them to become something other than a worse version of early 2010s Alabama.

Tennessee what is you doing

 

[Zavala 1384]

College football used to be Jimmies and Joes, where the pros were Xs and Os.

No longer that way at the highest levels. You got to have Jimmies and Joes that can incorporate high level Xs and Os into their game. 

You got to have smart players.

Thank God we aren't Alabama.

[Poolflood 845]

Great read Sushi.  Much appreciated!

[sushihorn 3233]

2 hours ago, Machinator said:

I'm watching what Georgia does with their newly vacated OC position carefully. This is a chance for them to become something other than a worse version of early 2010s Alabama.

The problem is that Kirby is now in competition with the NFL for coaches with solid spread offense resumes.  And the pro's overreaction has them handing out HC jobs to guys that might credibly be OCs or QB coaches.

[ButtFumble 5128]

2 hours ago, Machinator said:

I'm watching what Georgia does with their newly vacated OC position carefully. This is a chance for them to become something other than a worse version of early 2010s Alabama.

Kliff Kingsbury

[Guitarman 28]

The success of Mayfield and Mahomes early likely emboldened the hire of KK. The NFL has evolved into a more of a passing league. Spread formations, and no huddle are becoming the norm, years after Marv Levy introduced it. That's big 12 ball.  Remember when QBs were not taken seriously because they were hardly under center?

Saban runs an  1970s NFL type approach on O and D. He does it well; God knows he's got all the talent to run Lombardi plays.  But the future is what's being played in the big 12 and Clemson. You can load up the box to stop a run all day long. But defending a relentless all-out pass attack ?  That's another story. Different type of training and player and scheme needed to defend that.  I expect saban to adjust or fade away. 

[High Plains Drifter 10961]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Fair.  Evolution occurs within populations, not individuals.  Extreme environmental pressures accelerate the process for the population by killing of those who fail to adapt faster.  You're absolutely right about aggy and Okie but unfortunately there's little pressure on their fan bases to evolve.  One big reason I think aggy fans loved the SEC move so much was they got to hang with the "big dogs" (which are really more like Brontosauri) in a lower pressure SEC environment.  Change is hard and painful.  Sometimes it's easier to run away and hide.

edit: On further reflection, meth might be an adaptation to trailer park obesity.

Usually its sports metaphors used to explain science. This time its science metaphors to explain sports. Which is fine, but lets make sure the science is correct.

 Extreme environmental pressures accelerate evolution by killing off at higher rates individuals who are already poorly adapted to the new environmental pressures.

 

Good read however. I enjoy your football posts.

 

 

 

 

[Parliament 14086]

I gotta say the B12 is the most dynamic conference. And your middle-tier teams are underrated.

[sushihorn 3233]

One of the key tells to the "awesome SEC" myth is QBs.  It deserves it's own thread but basically they're not that good, don't get developed at the HS level in SEC country and don't get good coaching at the college level.  With the increasing importance of QB play as the spread proliferates, this is a huge weakness.

[PencilPusher 454]

At what point do NFL defensive coaches start looking to pick the brain of coaches like Jon Heacock at ISU and Todd Orlando for some spread busting tips. Heacock in particular has done a pretty good job coordinating defenses against the Air Raid philosophies in the Big 12 with what probably would be described as average talent. What they did to WVU this year was pretty amazing (they were fairly effective against Grier last year as well) and ISU probably did the best job of Big 12 teams in defending OU this year., Orlando did some great things last year (defending OU and OSU) and had some moments this year, though his team wasn't nearly as consistent and gave up lots of big plays. Surprised it hasn't happened yet...they seem to want to all get to the Lincoln's and Kliff's of the world, but not look at the counter strategy. 

[RollLeft 5039]

I think Mack's biggest mistake was deciding to change TEXAS' offensive identity after 2009.  Vince had laid the foundation and Colt followed suit.  The model and style of play was working.  When Colt got hurt Mack decided he wanted to change the style to be big and run the ball like Bama.  That decision was a step back.   It may not be popular but Harsin was a step back.  Then we went even further back when Texas went to Watson who tried to tweak an old outdated west coast offense.  Tom Herman is what we needed.  He may not be the best HC in college football yet but his offensive philosophy is clear and without question his identity is what the future of college football will be.      

[TreatyOak 16138]

[sushihorn 3233]

23 hours ago, Zavala said:

College football used to be Jimmies and Joes, where the pros were Xs and Os.

No longer that way at the highest levels. You got to have Jimmies and Joes that can incorporate high level Xs and Os into their game. 

You got to have smart players.

Thank God we aren't Alabama.

Si senor.

Remember the Georgia fans talking about how fast and physical their WRs were going into the Sugar Bowl?  They were mostly correct but they were focused on factors that were less important for on-field success.  Ability to make the right read (and the same one as your QB) on an option route, reliability on 3rd down, making tough catches in traffic and securing the ball when a safety comes flying into your chest, ability to use your body to shield off the defender.  Those are all important and tougher to measure than simple speed.

[Whatever 700]

17 hours ago, sushihorn said:

One of the key tells to the "awesome SEC" myth is QBs.  It deserves it's own thread but basically they're not that good, don't get developed at the HS level in SEC country and don't get good coaching at the college level.  With the increasing importance of QB play as the spread proliferates, this is a huge weakness.

Very true...and to prove your point in the OP, of the 4 starting NFL QBs from the SEC (Eli, Dak, Stafford & Cam) 2 of them played in the power spread in college.

[Eggo 3974]

Just one note - Alabama consulted with Tom Herman after they lost to tOSU in the 2015 semifinal, not the NCG in 2014. 

[kopp0e 1135]

On 1/9/2019 at 10:53 AM, Machinator said:

I'm watching what Georgia does with their newly vacated OC position carefully. This is a chance for them to become something other than a worse version of early 2010s Alabama.

Hmmm... Noted, I will give this more attention pertaining to next hire; seeing if it veers away from traditional SEC offenses...

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

5 hours ago, Whatever said:

Very true...and to prove your point in the OP, of the 4 starting NFL QBs from the SEC (Eli, Dak, Stafford & Cam) 2 of them played in the power spread in college.

...and the two who didn't both played in the dawn of time (at least as regards offensive innovation as per this conversation).

[sushihorn 3233]

11 hours ago, Whatever said:

Very true...and to prove your point in the OP, of the 4 starting NFL QBs from the SEC (Eli, Dak, Stafford & Cam) 2 of them played in the power spread in college.

 

5 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

...and the two who didn't both played in the dawn of time (at least as regards offensive innovation as per this conversation).

Really good points.  I hope you don't mind if I incorporate them into the SEC QB analysis that I'm working on.

[Whatever 700]

Really good points.  I hope you don't mind if I incorporate them into the SEC QB analysis that I'm working on.

Go right ahead sir.

[Parliament 14086]

Would the OP please elaborate on what, exactly, these defenses are doing? Zone, prevent, what else?

[Walden Ponderer 12639]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Would the OP please elaborate on what, exactly, these defenses are doing? Zone, prevent, what else?

I'm sure Sushi will elaborate, but the key word is "multiple" -- and it applies to the Jimmies and Joes as much as the X's and O's.

[sushihorn 3233]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Would the OP please elaborate on what, exactly, these defenses are doing? Zone, prevent, what else?

The Russian military would refer to it as maskirovka: camouflage and deception to create confusion and hesitation in the mind of the enemy.

Specifically it includes feints and bluffs, blitzes from all angles, including delayed blitzes and zone blitzes, disguised coverages that might be cover 2 man, cover 2 zone, cover 6 cloud looks or even deep quarters.  The coverage might even be one thing on half the field and something different on the other half.  There's a reason I compared it to a Chinese Fire Drill in a thread right after the Sugar Bowl.  You can click on that link for a breakdown of the first defensive series.

Orlando uses hybrid players all over the field to facilitate the flexibility needed to use player so far out of what would normally be their position.  In the Sugar Bowl he dropped a DE into deep robber coverage, like the MLB in a Tampa 2 look. 

[Machinator 32097]

Interesting article from Ian Boyd today that relates to the OP.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2019/1/11/18175447/dabo-swinney-revolutionary-hero-clemson-tigers-alabama-crimson-tide-nick-saban-process-spread

[runthebone 7914]

Eli Manning was 75 years old!

[JBJ 3646]

13 hours ago, Parliament said:

Would the OP please elaborate on what, exactly, these defenses are doing? Zone, prevent, what else?

Read zones are the bread and butter, but they don't always play it like a split-field Cover 2.

They are really good at mixing coverages against trips and dropping into 8-man coverage differently.

They move and roll their safeties a lot, and this gives several advantages: hiding coverages, bringing an extra defender into the box from several places, safety blitzes; but probably most importantly for the modern spread is that you run a good chance of moving a safety right into an RPO pass and blowing it up.

Edited January 12, 2019 by JBJ

[kopp0e 1135]

Something that could have effect on XII 3rd tier networks in the future (other than LHN):

 

[ClubWhatever 12082]

Sorry if this was covered but who are the “air raid “coaches left in this league?

Riley - definitely

Gundy - yes but loves him some QB run

Brown - I have not watched Troy and don’t remember what he ran at Tech

[sushihorn 3233]

On 1/10/2019 at 9:53 AM, PencilPusher said:

At what point do NFL defensive coaches start looking to pick the brain of coaches like Jon Heacock at ISU and Todd Orlando for some spread busting tips. Heacock in particular has done a pretty good job coordinating defenses against the Air Raid philosophies in the Big 12 with what probably would be described as average talent. What they did to WVU this year was pretty amazing (they were fairly effective against Grier last year as well) and ISU probably did the best job of Big 12 teams in defending OU this year., Orlando did some great things last year (defending OU and OSU) and had some moments this year, though his team wasn't nearly as consistent and gave up lots of big plays. Surprised it hasn't happened yet...they seem to want to all get to the Lincoln's and Kliff's of the world, but not look at the counter strategy. 

Once the league has to respond to fans complaining about defenses getting torched every week by the new wave offenses.  There are just a few now.  I suspect it will take 3-4 years to reach critical mass on the offensive side.  Then a couple of years before 1-2 teams take the obvious counter-measures.  And another few years for it to become a trend. 

Perception always lags reality.  The broader and dumber the market, the longer it takes - contrast the stock market with residential real estate. 

[texifornia 56289]

5 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

Sorry if this was covered but who are the “air raid “coaches left in this league?

Riley - definitely

Gundy - yes but loves him some QB run

Brown - I have not watched Troy and don’t remember what he ran at Tech

Yost, Tech's new OC, is a Raid Bro.

https://www.lubbockonline.com/news/20181201/new-coordinator-david-yost-takes-his-turn-with-texas-tech-offense
 

Edited January 12, 2019 by texifornia

[sushihorn 3233]

22 hours ago, Machinator said:

Interesting article from Ian Boyd today that relates to the OP.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2019/1/11/18175447/dabo-swinney-revolutionary-hero-clemson-tigers-alabama-crimson-tide-nick-saban-process-spread

That is a great article and deserves its own thread.  Tons of grist for the offseason discussion mill.  And it's going to be a LONG offseason.  Summary thesis is very encouraging.
 

Quote

 

Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers have built a Big 12-style program that has toppled Alabama and changed the game for top programs that want to win a championship.

It’s actually a game that’s given Saban’s Alabama trouble throughout their run. The Tigers ran a HUNH spread offense and a defense fostered to survive in the HUNH spread era whereas the Tide were playing Saban’s preferred style that’s been tweaked to handle the new era but isn’t born of it. This same style gave Alabama trouble against Texas in the 2009 Championship game that started the Tide roll, against the better Gus Malzahn teams at Auburn, against the Utah Utes in 2012, Johnny Manziel in 2011 and 2012, and the Hugh Freeze Ole Miss Rebels before they collapsed.

It also gave them trouble against Clemson, who paired it with an elite defense and gave them a couple of close games in 2015 and 2016 before finally blowing the Tide away in 2018. Now Clemson is established with a pipeline of elite recruits rolling through an under-regarded S&C program and a freshman phenom at QB in Trevor Lawrence who has at least two more years to lead the Tigers.

 

Texas isn't there yet but getting closer.  A lot of those elements should look familiar to Longhorn fans...

[ClubWhatever 12082]

Where do we get a DL full of first round picks?

[jinx 2635]

1 hour ago, ClubWhatever said:

Where do we get a DL full of first round picks?

The Boyd article makes a good point about that too. Take a look at how many RS freshmen played valuable minutes in the Sugar Bowl after lifting weights and focusing on changing their body during their first year out of high school.  

[sushihorn 3233]

The 2018 Clemson DL did not spring into existence with Dabo commanding "fiat lux!" and waving his hands.  It was the product of years of work by the staff.  Take a look at the 2015 team that made it to the CFP finals.  Starters were:

DE Dodd: 3-star JUCO equivalent from NQ/greyshirt mill Hargrave in 2012 class; 2nd rounder in 2016 NFL draft

DT Watkins: #8 DT in 2012 class, 4 stars; 4th rounder in 2017

NT Reader: converted OL; #18 OG from 2012, 4 star OL; drafted 5th round in 2016

DE Lawson: 4-star JUCO equivalent from Hargrave (again); only 1st rounder from this group

 

The 2015 Clemson DL played very well and helped set the table for the 2018 crew.  They made Clemson a destination for top D-Line recruits.  They were the result of good recruiting but nothing like what we've seen the last couple of years.  That is definitely a model that 2019 Texas can aspire to.

[bigcigar 1161]

46 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

 

The 2015 Clemson DL played very well and helped set the table for the 2018 crew.  They made Clemson a destination for top D-Line recruits.  They were the result of good recruiting but nothing like what we've seen the last couple of years.  That is definitely a model that 2019 Texas can aspire to.

Having back to back big 12 dline of the year is a good selling point. Just need some to start getting drafted.

[PencilPusher 454]

On 1/12/2019 at 1:25 PM, sushihorn said:

Once the league has to respond to fans complaining about defenses getting torched every week by the new wave offenses.  There are just a few now.  I suspect it will take 3-4 years to reach critical mass on the offensive side.  Then a couple of years before 1-2 teams take the obvious counter-measures.  And another few years for it to become a trend. 

Perception always lags reality.  The broader and dumber the market, the longer it takes - contrast the stock market with residential real estate. 

Nice answer....clearly an arbitrage opportunity for a forward thinking football operation (which for Lone Star State NFL fans, neither the Cowboys or Texans are unfortunately).

[sushihorn 3233]

On 1/12/2019 at 1:34 PM, texifornia said:

Yost, Tech's new OC, is a Raid Bro.

https://www.lubbockonline.com/news/20181201/new-coordinator-david-yost-takes-his-turn-with-texas-tech-offense
 

TCU's OC is Sonny Cumbie who was Leach's QB and GA.  Was OC under Kingsbury also.