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SEC Scheduling and Adjusted W-L Records

sushihorn

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 21587

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JBJ said:

I think the best counterargument would be that the SEC generally avoids having multiple Arkansas-esque teams each year.  Those conference games are no better than G5 opponents.

Even this year there was only Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Arkansas that were still guartanteed wins even a team came out flat.  The B12 is mostly the same with Baylor and Kansas.

Whereas about half of the teams in the Pac, ACC, and B1G are guaranteed to be G5-level dogshit perennially.

South Carolina is almost always about as shitty as Baylor.

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 12107

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I think the best counterargument would be that the SEC generally avoids having multiple Arkansas-esque teams each year.  Those conference games are no better than G5 opponents.

Even this year there was only Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Arkansas that were still guartanteed wins even a team came out flat.  The B12 is mostly the same with Baylor and Kansas.

Whereas about half of the teams in the Pac, ACC, and B1G are guaranteed to be G5-level dogshit perennially.

and yet- almost every single year- one of those perennial conference bottom dwellers jumps up and bites a conference big dog in the ass.

Purdue v tosu this year,

syracuse v clemson 2017

Iowa vs ohio state 2017

Kansas v texas 2016

iowa st v okie st 2011

baylor v kansas state 2012

 

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JBJ

JBJ 3830

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It does happen time-to-time.  And it's not that the each program might be a perennial bottom-dwellers.   It's that there are more bad teams year-to-year in the non-SEC/B12 conferences.

The SEC and B12 generally have a bell-curve power structure (few good and few bad with a competitive middle). The other conferences are logarithmic (few good but many middle and bad).

That's just the way I see it, and I'm in no manner saying the tops and middles of each conference aren't competitive.  But if you take the bottom 4 teams from each conference, that's where the real difference lies.

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ABSR

ABSR 5377

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5 minutes ago, JBJ said:

It does happen time-to-time.  And it's not that the each program might be a perennial bottom-dwellers.   It's that there are more bad teams year-to-year in the non-SEC/B12 conferences.

The SEC and B12 generally have a bell-curve power structure (few good and few bad with a competitive middle). The other conferences are logarithmic (few good but many middle and bad).

That's just the way I see it, and I'm in no manner saying the tops and middles of each conference aren't competitive.  But if you take the bottom 4 teams from each conference, that's where the real difference lies.

Vanderbilt (almost always bad)

Kentucky (almost always bad...in football.  )

Arkansas (bad in last two or three decades)

South Carolina (bad in last decade, traditionally average)

Tennessee (bad in last decade, had success 20 years ago)

Ole Miss (when not rampantly cheating they have always been mediocre to poor)

Miss State (Mediocre to poor with a few years of uptick)

Aggie (Definition of Mediocre in conference record over their history.  Only good year in SEC was first year when all their players were Big 12 recruits)

Florida (had great runs, but last decade has been mediocre)

Missouri (Mediocre after Big 12 talent left)

Auburn (bought Championship with Cam, otherwise mediocre to slightly above average)

LSU (average to good.  Saban and then Les pulled them up above mediocrity so expectations are higher now)

Georgia (Usually good to great, but seem to underperform in big games)

Alabama (Without 'Bama and the SEC scheduling the question asked each year would be if the SEC is worst or second worse P5 conference)

 

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JBJ

JBJ 3830

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Still more than Vanderbilt could handle.

And all three would compete to win in the Pac-South and ACC Coastal.  That's really the point I'm trying to make.

 

I quick-edited the original post to give this summary point, but it fell onto the last page.

"If you aren't giving credit for beating Georgia Southern, then Illinois, Louisville, and Oregon State certainly shouldn't count either."

That's really my point.  If did this same "record vs teams with a pulse" analysis, but looked at vs Top-Half instead of vs P5, the SEC and would come out at least even because several in-conference games would fall out in the other leagues.

Edited by JBJ
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ButtFumble

ButtFumble 5322

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/10/2019 at 12:56 PM, Neonmoon said:

This doesn't even come close to documenting the SEC scheduling advantage. I've detailed it in some other threads, but it's a proven formula that inflates their finals records and guarantees them better rankings, which in turn gets them better bowl games, which equals more money. 

1. High Pre-Season Rankings and Rank as many teams ranked pre-season as possible. 

      A. Done with relationship with ESPN, writer affiliations, etc.

      B. Circle Logic (Auburn should be ranked #23 because SEC, SEC is good because of ranked teams)

2. Schedule "Big Game" early. Don't Lose Late

     A. Schedule a marquee OOC game (aka LSU v Texas) early in the year. If no big P5 scheduled, play conference game early (Alabama v South Carolina 9/14/2019)

     B. If you win, huge win vs ranked team. If you lose, early losses sting less than losing late. (remember how no one cared we lost to Maryland late. no on talked about it). And early loss to then ranked #23 Auburn looks less like a big deal even if Auburn craters and finishes 6-6. Why was Auburn ranked #23 again? See bullet point #1

3. Only 8 conference games. 

    A. Half the conference will have 1 less loss. Mostly the 9th game is replaced by an FCS team. That means instead of 7 losses for the SEC, they replace them with 7 wins. Why is A&M or Missouri ranked at 8-4 at the end of the season? Oh, they are 8-4 instead of 7-5. Instead of playing a conference opponent, they played Georgia Southern. 

 

Magic, the SEC gets more Bowl money

you left out one major factor and one minor factor (that you partially covered)

the major factor is the late season D1-AA game....it is not simply playing one of those, but playing them late in the season

that way when other conferences that have their head in their ass about how to schedule are all beating up on each other in their conference schedule the SEC SEC SEC pretty much has 12+ of their teams having a guaranteed win late in the season so there is no chance they drop down and at worst they move up above those that lost just above them and sometimes they move up a bit more than that

and you talked about the pre season rankings, but that comes from getting more wins in the prior season, getting more teams into bowl games and getting more teams to the magic 9 wins total that more than likely gets you ranked (especially because 9 wins in SEC SEC SEC)......then still more teams with 8 wins just outside of the top 25 and SEC SEC SEC teams always atleast "reload" or they really improve for the next year so that 8 win team is now ranked low in the top 25 to open the next season and those 9 win teams are ranked as high or higher than they were to end the past season unless the whole team goes full Fulmer or it is one of their shittier programs that graduates like half the team and has another 20% arrested or failed out...then they are ranked in the mod 30s

the reality is the Big 12 is fucking up with 9 conference games and it is fucking Texas and OU more than anyone

people need to get past the idea that because the Big 12 plays fewer conference games (like 7 instead of 9) that Texas needs to go out and schedule a bunch of D1-AA shit because Texas can do better than that.....and people need to get over the idea that Baylor might go schedule a bunch of D1-AA shit because from the stand point of Texas you need to beat the best to be the best and you get more credit for beating a Baylor team that was 8-5 beating a bunch of shitty teams vs beating a Baylor team that was 4-8 losing a bunch of Big 12 games and getting beaten by another P5 OOC team

who gives a shit of Baylor, Tech, and Kansas want to cheer winning 9 games against shit and making the Muffler bowl every year......that beats playing those teams when they have 4 or 5 wins and no bowl game especially when you play them more often with 9 conference games instead of switching some of them out for OOC games

Alabama does not give a fuck who Vangy beats they just give a fuck that Vandy beats as many of them as they can and Alabama does not give a shit if Vandy goes undefeated and missed the playoffs because they scheduled shit.....except they give a shit that they lost to Vandy and let them go undefeated

look at it a different way no fan base says "fuck all these other teams in the Big 12" more than Texas and "who gives a shit if TCU or Baylor goes to the playoffs"......but yet Texas fans expect them to schedule like they are making the playoffs every year and Texas fans can't see the logic in playing teams less often that you say "fuck them" about and instead playing more OOC games

Does Clemson give a shit that no team in the ACC stands a chance of making the playoffs for probably the next 5 years or more.....fuck no as long as they keep making the playoffs they do not give a fuck what those other teams do....well that and mix in enough wins to at least keep in last place for TV money with the PAC 12 

Edited by ButtFumble
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sushihorn

sushihorn 3275

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43 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Paul Finebaum better sleep with one eye open. 

I've said many times that perception lags behind reality.  Texas dominating Georgia damaged the meme of SEC superiority.  Clemson doing the same to Alabama even more so.

Think about how long it took the NFL and its fans to figure out that the spread offense was a very effective system.  Then think about how fast the perception switched once recognition set in.  It seems we are getting close to such an inflection point WRT conference perceptions.  The Horns need to beat LSU decisively to accelerate that recognition.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 11354

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Posted

let's be fair to aggy.  "the year after this year", i.e. next year, the year they are declaring JIMBO ZOMG NATTY, the 2020 season, is not lined up nicely for team indoctrination station.

the 2020 SEC championship game has to be on saturday 5 december because thanksgiving is on thursday 26 november.

working backwards saturdays fall on:

21 nov

14 nov

7 nov

31 oct

24 oct

17 oct

10 oct

aggy has already announced the following:

5 sep @pyle Abilene Christian

12 sep @pyle North Texas

19 sep @pyle Colorado

26 sep @deathstar pig

3 oct BYE

10 oct @pyle Fresno State

after the Fresno State game, there are only 7 saturdays remaining, and fbschedules shows the following:

@bama

@barn

@bulldog

@cock

daddy @pyle

klan @pyle

vandy @pyle

takes:

1. aggy non-con gets progressively more difficult for 3 weeks culminating with colorado.

2. no late-season layup at all

3. unless the sec does some major maneuvering for aggy, there is no bye week within a 7-game league stretch

4. aggy open that stretch with 4 league games in a row on the road

5. when they get home they host daddy

6. a slip-up against colorado or pig, and 4 road league losses, sees aggy at 4-5 with klan & vandy still to play

7. 2020 is going to be a bitch for aggy; of course they will muddle through and probably not lose to pig or colorado; but if they do.....

 

 

 

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8476

Posted
Posted (edited)

They will go 7-5 or 8-4 and puff their chests out about being Bama's bitch. Rinse and Repeat. That'll be valid for every year until Saban retires. Then replace Bama with LSU and continue.

Edited by Bevo14
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Walden Ponderer

Walden Ponderer 12639

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1 minute ago, Bevo14 said:

They will go 7-5 or 8-4 and puff their chests out about being Bama's bitch. Rinse and Repeat. That'll be valid for every year until Saban retires. Then replace Bama with LSU and continue.

You're really not being fair.

 

 

 

 

 

It's equally possible Auburn will replace Bama.

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Cairn Horn88

Cairn Horn88 8567

Posted
Posted

Ranking the SEC Programs Win % vs the "Big 6"

1. Alabama*** - .617 
2. Georgia*** - .489 
3. Auburn*** - .487 
4. Florida*** - .480 
5. Tennessee*** - .457 
6. Missouri - .441 
7. LSU*** - .440 
8. Texas A&M - .395 
9. Arkansas - .317 
10. Ole Miss - .311 
11. Mississippi State - .296 
12. Vanderbilt - .282 
13. South Carolina - .231 
14. Kentucky - .213 

***Denotes a member of the "Big 6"

Poor aggy.

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dcar00

dcar00 15108

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Posted

until the SEC gets severely punished by the committee for their playing 8 P5 games, FCS, and their home scheduling, this will continue.  and that won't change until the strength of schedule is affected drastically.

the number of losses has been the overriding factor in a teams ranking since 1936.  The committee throws one or 2 bones, usually down the list or at the top of the list as long as it is not an SEC team, to make it seem like the are doing some type of "analysis".  its all a bunch of bullshit.  they aren't anymore qualified or less biased than anyone on this site sitting at a bar that watches a lot of college football on a regular basis.

they need an 8 team playoff with conf champs and one G5.  Every P5 needs to have a chance to win the title every year just like every other fucking sport in college.  we'll find out who the best conf is then.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34946

Posted
Posted








So if 7-4 Colorado beat 11-0 Texas in 2005, you'd be fine with that.

Great plan. Let's just turn football into basketball.


If 7-4 Colorado beat 11-0 Texas on 2005 then that would have been a different 2005 Texas team. And maybe they wouldn't have deserved it.

And the basketball comment makes no sense. Teams like 2005 Texas football make the basketball tournament even if they completely shit the bed in the last 3 games, let alone the CCG.
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markstanco

markstanco 12848

Posted
Posted





If 7-4 Colorado beat 11-0 Texas on 2005 then that would have been a different 2005 Texas team. And maybe they wouldn't have deserved it.

And the basketball comment makes no sense. Teams like 2005 Texas football make the basketball tournament even if they completely shit the bed in the last 3 games, let alone the CCG.
Sure it does. You are saying the regular season doesn't matter as much as a single game.
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dcar00

dcar00 15108

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, markstanco said:


 

 


So if 7-4 Colorado beat 11-0 Texas in 2005, you'd be fine with that.

Great plan. Let's just turn football into basketball.

 

I want it settled on the field not in some hotel conference room by some idiot, using some hypothetical strength of conference/schedule metric.  If you want it to be the only sport that does it this way because it makes it unique, I get it but I don't agree with it.

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Johnny Sack

Johnny Sack 8397

Posted
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I want it settled on the field not in some hotel conference room by some idiot, using some hypothetical strength of conference/schedule metric.  If you want it to be the only sport that does it this way because it makes it unique, I get it but I don't agree with it.

The best way to do it would be to have 6 ten team conferences that each played round robins and then have two at large teams in an 8 team playoff. 14-16 team conferences are retarded.  

Edited by Johnny Sack
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gmr548

gmr548 16704

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Posted
Sure it does. You are saying the regular season doesn't matter as much as a single game.

In such an 8 team playoff scenario there are two at large slots assuming P5 champs and highest ranked G5 champ. 05 Texas is a bad argument against that system because they'd almost certainly get an at large bid thanks to beating Ohio State and tearing through the B12. So no, the regular season isn't worthless.

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gmr548

gmr548 16704

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Posted
I've said many times that perception lags behind reality.  Texas dominating Georgia damaged the meme of SEC superiority.  Clemson doing the same to Alabama even more so.
Think about how long it took the NFL and its fans to figure out that the spread offense was a very effective system.  Then think about how fast the perception switched once recognition set in.  It seems we are getting close to such an inflection point WRT conference perceptions.  The Horns need to beat LSU decisively to accelerate that recognition.

This is the bottom line. As overhyped as the league was, no one was beating SEC powers OOC or in bowl games. Remember how the SEC would just shred the Big Ten in the undercard Florida bowl games? That has changed now. It'll take time for people to come around though.

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CoTex

CoTex 1199

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Posted
3 hours ago, markstanco said:


 

 


So if 7-4 Colorado beat 11-0 Texas in 2005, you'd be fine with that.

Great plan. Let's just turn football into basketball.

 

Never have I been more confident in a game than I was riding the train to that game that day.

glorious day.

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markstanco

markstanco 12848

Posted
Posted

In such an 8 team playoff scenario there are two at large slots assuming P5 champs and highest ranked G5 champ. 05 Texas is a bad argument against that system because they'd almost certainly get an at large bid thanks to beating Ohio State and tearing through the B12. So no, the regular season isn't worthless.

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Still wrong. 2004 colorado as well if they would have won.

If a weak sec east team like Tennessee knocks off georgia and wins the H2H and beats a say 1 or 0 loss alabama, and Tennessee has 4 losses to tn Chattanooga, troy, Mizzou state, and vandy, you are fine with Tennessee taking the Alabama spot?

That is the definition of the regular season doesn't matter.
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SurlyORama

SurlyORama 165

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, markstanco said:

Still wrong. 2004 colorado as well if they would have won.

If a weak sec east team like Tennessee knocks off georgia and wins the H2H and beats a say 1 or 0 loss alabama, and Tennessee has 4 losses to tn Chattanooga, troy, Mizzou state, and vandy, you are fine with Tennessee taking the Alabama spot?

That is the definition of the regular season doesn't matter.

In the NFL, if a 10-6 Baltimore knocks off a 15-1 Pittsburgh in the Divisional playoff game, does that mean that the regular season didn't matter, and that the playoff format is bad?

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gmr548

gmr548 16704

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Posted



Still wrong. 2004 colorado as well if they would have won.

If a weak sec east team like Tennessee knocks off georgia and wins the H2H and beats a say 1 or 0 loss alabama, and Tennessee has 4 losses to tn Chattanooga, troy, Mizzou state, and vandy, you are fine with Tennessee taking the Alabama spot?

That is the definition of the regular season doesn't matter.



Think about your argument for a second. Your entire point is based on things with a far smaller chance of happening than the issues faced currently, which are structurally guaranteed. You're not presenting a solution, for one, and you're also holding out for perfection, which doesn't exist.

1.) Colorado got beat by a combined 112-6 in the CCGs you've brought up. Their chances at either were miniscule. If they end up winning either, the superior team has no argument. Take care of business against a vastly inferior opponent.

2.) 2004 OU gets an at large slot if they lose the CCG. Why? Regular season body of work matters. Maybe 04 Texas gets left out for Cal, maybe they don't. If they do, perhaps they shouldn't have gotten fucking shut out in Dallas with VY, Cedric Benson, etc. on the roster. Again, regular season body of work matters.

3.) Again, your hypothetical Tennessee point almost never happens. Teams that lose to two FCS teams don't go through power conferences with one or two losses in league play. And if they did that, thay also means they went through Georgia and Florida to get to the CCG. They also went through Bama because they play every year. And then they finished off Bama again. If Bama goes 0-2 with your shitty Tennessee, why do they deserve to be in the playoff any more than Tennessee? And if they're really so great, there's two at large slots.

I know you won't admit the obvious flaw in your point because, well, this is Surly, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny and that's plain as day. If you'd rather keep the shitty system we have, which is almost 100 percent guaranteed to leave a deserving team out, then fine. Just admit you like the beauty pageant element of it. But don't sit here and argue an 8-team playoff is a bad alternative because of the possibility the most deserving teams won't qualify, because it is superior to the current system on that front in every conceivable way.

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6680

Posted
Posted
On 7/6/2019 at 4:56 PM, Cairn Horn88 said:

Ranking the SEC Programs Win % vs the "Big 6"

1. Alabama*** - .617 
2. Georgia*** - .489 
3. Auburn*** - .487 
4. Florida*** - .480 
5. Tennessee*** - .457 
6. Missouri - .441 
7. LSU*** - .440 
8. Texas A&M - .395 
9. Arkansas - .317 
10. Ole Miss - .311 
11. Mississippi State - .296 
12. Vanderbilt - .282 
13. South Carolina - .231 
14. Kentucky - .213 

***Denotes a member of the "Big 6"

Poor aggy.

UT should endeavor to schedule 'Barn and Tennessee OCC to complete our tour of "Big 6", SEC bluebloods

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SurlyORama

SurlyORama 165

Posted
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21 hours ago, markstanco said:

Comparing to NCAA basketball.  If you want to make the NCAA like the NFL, thats obviously your opinion but mine happens to be different.  

Personally, I dont want 8 teams.  I would rather them go to 6, with #1 and #2 getting a bye week. 

I most certainly DON'T want college football to be like the NFL. In fact, I don't like the playoff system at all, and prefer the old bowl system even back before the BCS (git off my lawn, I guess).

But, if you are going to have a playoff, I think that all major conference champions should be automatically in it, and the conferences can decide themselves how to determine their champion. If they want to risk the "4 loss team beating the undefeated one in conference championship" scenario, they can. But they don't have to.

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 10003

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, SurlyORama said:

I most certainly DON'T want college football to be like the NFL. In fact, I don't like the playoff system at all, and prefer the old bowl system even back before the BCS (git off my lawn, I guess).

But, if you are going to have a playoff, I think that all major conference champions should be automatically in it, and the conferences can decide themselves how to determine their champion. If they want to risk the "4 loss team beating the undefeated one in conference championship" scenario, they can. But they don't have to.

Yes. It is up to the conference to determine their champion. If they want 8,9 or 10 conference games, who cares. So be it. That situation will fix itself quickly although it could lead to SEC depletion of two teams as they hire an outside consultant to do the math and tell them there is less chance of making the playoffs in a 14 team conf vs 12. Said consultant will then be fed to Ed O but the message will have been received. 

All of these complaints about undeserving playoff teams focus their whaling at the wrong actor. That’s not a playoff problem, that’s conference problem. 

Edited by ChickenSandwich
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Chad

Chad 1728

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Posted

P5 teams should not be scheduling FCS teams, ever under any circumstance. It's almost criminal that the SEC hosts their annual cupcake weekend deep in the season when the ACC, Big 10, Big 12 and PAC are all playing conference games and don't have the luxury of yanking their starters out before the half. Their selective scheduling with how teams from the east and west  are matched up is a farce as well. It's rare that premier teams from the East and West face each other before the SEC Championship outside of the UF/LSU rivalry.

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