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Joe Burrow v. Sam Ehlinger

sushihorn

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21363

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If we're even debating Burrow vs Ehlinger the SEC propaganda has already had a devastating effect.  JFC, there's no comparison.  The problem is all the shit that doesn't show up on the stat sheet truly separates the two.  I think TxPete said Burrow is a game manager whereas Ehlinger actually wins you the damn game.  That gets to the point.  And if I'm being honest, Ehlinger annoys the shit out of me but a winner, he is. 

 

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Tex Pete

Tex Pete 21556

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39 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

If we're even debating Burrow vs Ehlinger the SEC propaganda has already had a devastating effect.  JFC, there's no comparison.  The problem is all the shit that doesn't show up on the stat sheet truly separates the two.  I think TxPete said Burrow is a game manager whereas Ehlinger actually wins you the damn game.  That gets to the point.  And if I'm being honest, Ehlinger annoys the shit out of me but a winner, he is. 

 

Right. And I wasn’t trying to put Burrow down at all. He’s a good player. As someone else said, he’s LSU’s best QB in years. But he is only asked to drive the bus.

Sam is expected to carry the Horns’ offense, at least to some extent. Their roles in their respective offenses are quite different. I’d love to have a dominant run game to take pressure off of Sam, but we’re not there yet. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3258

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49 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

If we're even debating Burrow vs Ehlinger the SEC propaganda has already had a devastating effect.  JFC, there's no comparison.  The problem is all the shit that doesn't show up on the stat sheet truly separates the two.  I think TxPete said Burrow is a game manager whereas Ehlinger actually wins you the damn game.  That gets to the point.  And if I'm being honest, Ehlinger annoys the shit out of me but a winner, he is.

I started compiling the stats in response to an LSU fan who was making claims that seemed patently nuts.  Stats proved that out even without the intangibles you mention.  Like I said in the OP, just left it here instead of waiting until the fall to put it into a pre-game writeup.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21363

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3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I started compiling the stats in response to an LSU fan who was making claims that seemed patently nuts.  Stats proved that out even without the intangibles you mention.  Like I said in the OP, just left it here instead of waiting until the fall to put it into a pre-game writeup.

Hey, you’re free to write whatever.  You’ve been pretty damn impressive w the write ups.  

Even this one - I don’t think it was necessary, but it was well done.  

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USNALonghorn

USNALonghorn 5217

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3 hours ago, sushihorn said:

I started compiling the stats in response to an LSU fan who was making claims that seemed patently nuts.  Stats proved that out even without the intangibles you mention.  Like I said in the OP, just left it here instead of waiting until the fall to put it into a pre-game writeup.

SEC fan was making claims that seemed nuts? No way.

Great write-up though.

4 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Possibly, but I haven’t seen a comparison of their stats.

Ash was a baller, no doubt at all.

To this day I wonder what a fully healthy Ash could have done for the program with his remaining 2 years of eligibility. (med-shirt)

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formermav43

formermav43 4631

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5 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Possibly, but I haven’t seen a comparison of their stats.

Ash was a baller, no doubt at all.

You can look it up if you want ( I’m too lazy to do it for this post at the moment, but I did earlier to verify what I already was pretty sure about). Ash was a better passer as a true sophomore than Burrow as a redshirt junior.

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Billy Pilgrim

Billy Pilgrim 2079

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52 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

This list of the 25 projected best QBs of 2019 is somewhat informative. Brad Crawford of 247 is not necessarily the final arbiter, mind you, but it's a reasonable list.

And I'm pretty sure "6th" is ranked higher than "25th" for what it's worth.

I think a solid argument could be made that Sam should be 3rd on that list. Don’t understand the Herbert love and Sam just outplayed Fromm in the sugar bowl.

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gmr548

gmr548 16704

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Sorry to interrupt the Touchdown Brothers theme of this thread, but this. 
Burrow is significantly better than any LSU QB in years. 

A pick of a random poster off this board would also likely fit that description. Talk about a low bar.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

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Why is QB at LSU always such a weird thing?  Coach in, coach out, the QB at LSU seems to always be this odd question mark/unpredictable guy.  Lots of “gritty” and “lunchpail” comments from the announcers. “Manage the game” and so forth.

I will admit it just means less to me, so maybe I missed one somewhere.   

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Jkwellborn

Jkwellborn 7090

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Why is QB at LSU always such a weird thing?  Coach in, coach out, the QB at LSU seems to always be this odd question mark/unpredictable guy.  Lots of “gritty” and “lunchpail” comments from the announcers. “Manage the game” and so forth.
I will admit it just means less to me, so maybe I missed one somewhere.   

Because they play in the sec and the whole conference until recently has played the same boring ass bullshit. Run a lot, pass if you must, keep the play clock running and hope defense and special teams can do work.
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sushihorn

sushihorn 3258

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Perusing the LSU boards, one finds a great deal of optimism.  Such is the nature of fans.  One recurring theme is talk of how much Joe Burrow improved as the season went on.  Usually this is defined as post-Bama and his numbers certainly went up.  Closer examination suggests a more likely alternative explanation for the statistical improvement.

Game #1 post-Bama was Arkansas.  Clearly a crap team at 2-10, including losses to G5 UNT and CSU.  Arky's pass defense was particularly wretched, ranking #115 nationally in Pass Efficiency Defense.  Joe Burrow's QBR was 165.1 against this juggernaut.

Rice was up next for LSU.  They were 2-11 against one of the worst SOS out there (#99).  Despite the weak competition, Rice managed to be even worse statistically than Arkansas at #121 PED.  Result: Burrow looks great with a 187.2 QBR.

Third game is @aggy.  Even with 3 OOC auto wins, they still rank #106 in PED.  Burrow's QBR: 151.5

The bowl game fortuitously matches LSU with UCF.  While the Knights look decent on pass defense (#27 PED) they are putrid at Run D #117.  Fearing LSU's running game, UCF crowded the box, played man coverage almost exclusively, left their corners on an island and focused on maintaining gap integrity rather than penetrating to create pass pressure.  The net of that was no pressure on Burrow, tons of time to throw and for LSU's far more athletic WRs to get open against inferior CBs 1-on-1.  Since the alternative was to have UCF's horribad Rush D beaten to death I suppose this was the least bad outcome starting with such a terrible mismatch.  We discover that Joe Burrow can hit wide open receivers when given a clean pocked for 4-5 seconds.  The result: Burrow now looks like Tom Brady and posts a 192.1 QBR.

 

The bottom line is that LSU played some of the worst defenses in FBS to close the season.  3 of them were in the bottom 20 defending the pass.  The 4th completely distorted their defensive structure because their run defense was in the bottom 10 nationally.  Whatever the opposite of Murderers Row is, Joe Burrow faced it to close the 2018 season.  It would be shocking if his numbers DIDN'T increase drastically against this collection of special needs defenses.

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DayHeGeaux

DayHeGeaux 72

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Quick Observation from an LSU Fan - 

@sushihorn OP doesn't provide any context.

Burrow arrived at LSU on August 1, 2018 (Fall Camp Check-In), prior to this he had never worked with any of his QB Coordinator, WR Corp, or offensive linemen.

He also had never ran a pro-style offense prior to arriving LSU. So not only did he have to assimilate a brand new offense in less than a month, he also had to develop in-season continuity with his WR corp; with showed in his QB progression in the latter part of the season.

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6857

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One thing to look at in comparison to the two QBs is their splits when playing at home vs on the road

 

Burrow on the road last year:

58.3% Completion Rate

12.24 yds per Completion

7.13 yds per Attempt

% of Completions resulting in TD 6.76%

% of Attempts resulting in TD 3.93%

Rush yds/attempt 2.8

Sam at home last year:

66.9% Completion Rate

12.53 yds per Completion

8.38 yds per Attempt

% of Completions resulting in a TD 10.1%

% of Attempts resulting in a TD 6.75%

Rush yds/Attempt 3.0

So fairly overwhelmingly the stats for Sam vs Burrow favor Sam being the home QB

Interesting thing is Burrow was actually better on the road last year for completion %, TD % of Completions etc.

He was a far better rusher at home (3.4 yds/att). 

Bigger concern is his arm injury and the fact that with a new offense installation he has missed multiple practices and scrimmages this fall.

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mr.goodkat

mr.goodkat 469

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3 hours ago, DayHeGeaux said:

Quick Observation from an LSU Fan - 

@sushihorn OP doesn't provide any context.

Burrow arrived at LSU on August 1, 2018 (Fall Camp Check-In), prior to this he had never worked with any of his QB Coordinator, WR Corp, or offensive linemen.

He also had never ran a pro-style offense prior to arriving LSU. So not only did he have to assimilate a brand new offense in less than a month, he also had to develop in-season continuity with his WR corp; with showed in his QB progression in the latter part of the season.

 

aren't y'all changing "offenses"  this year ? which  would put him in a similar scenario when taking the missed practice and scrimmage time into account ? so how progressed is he going to be week 2 ? 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3258

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2 minutes ago, mr.goodkat said:

aren't y'all changing "offenses"  this year ? which  would put him in a similar scenario when taking the missed practice and scrimmage time into account ? so how progressed is he going to be week 2 ? 

No, no you don't understand.  Last year Joe Burrow looked bad because he had to learn a new offense.

This year he's going to be much better because he's learning a new offense.

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mr.goodkat

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3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

No, no you don't understand.  Last year Joe Burrow looked bad because he had to learn a new offense.

This year he's going to be much better because he's learning a new offense.

thanks for clearing that up for me . i totally  see it now 

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DayHeGeaux

DayHeGeaux 72

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14 minutes ago, mr.goodkat said:

aren't y'all changing "offenses"  this year ? which  would put him in a similar scenario when taking the missed practice and scrimmage time into account ? so how progressed is he going to be week 2 ? 

To be clear, Joe Burrow went from the spread offense at Ohio State (2 years), to a pro-style offense in 2018. 

Spread concepts aren't foreign to him, especially now that he has a full year of development and cohesion under his belt. Most of our WRs also came from spread offenses in HS. 

To be honest, the only person that really needed education on the spread was our OC Steve Ensminger (hints the Joe Brady - Passing Game Coordinator hire). 

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GoldAppleCorps

GoldAppleCorps 630

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It's worth noting that Sam and Joe won't likely play each other. It's our defense's job to stop Joe, and the Tigers' job to stop Sam.

I'm getting the sense that Texas fans can empathize. It's been hard to follow, but it seems that LSU has tried to remake their identity several times with several coaches over the last several years. During this time, truly dangerous WR and QB are underutilized while the rest of the offense muddles through "growing pains". Every fall, the fan base points to "with an extra year" and "in the spring they" type stuff.

As Texas fans, we get it. Right down to the "OMFG! Trash everything and try to be like Alabama!" vibe. We panicked too, threw away the script, ran off a MNC winning coach (not always a bad thing), and began wandering. I can tell you a million reasons why this year's Longhorn OL is going to be the one that opens up the offensive potential, but until that happens, we are what we were.

My optimism comes from familiarity. LSU's offense seems to want to be what we have in the Big 12. They want tempo, multiple attack from same look, and RPO. They may work it out this season, and truly terrify the SEC with it.

However, Texas is familiar with that. Our defense sees it every week, sees it in practice, and is built to stop the best in the business at it. Our DBs know that 18" of space is open, because they play against QBs that can hit that window from 20 yards out. On the flip side (the side that does indeed worry me greatly), LSU has freakish athletes. However, I'm wondering how they'll feel when the scoreboard hits in the 20's in the first half? If the OL performs as I expect, the Tigers will need to defend the entire field for a long time.

I have no doubt LSU is a team full of fantastic athletes. It just looks like they're coming to Austin to try and play our game.

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mr.goodkat

mr.goodkat 469

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17 hours ago, DayHeGeaux said:

 

To be honest, the only person that really needed education on the spread was our OC Steve Ensminger (hints the Joe Brady - Passing Game Coordinator hire). 

so y'all have a oc who doesn't have his own rpo playbook(was/is it his pro style last year  ?)  supported by a defensive head coach ? with a qb on his third offense in as many years ?  man i like our chances more and more . and what are we hinting at ? 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6857

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Checked the stat line that was published for the most recent LSU scrimmage where the press gushed over how "great" Burrow was.

54.17% completion rate (4 pts worse than his 2018 road avg)

12.3 yds/completion (slightly better than his 12.24 from 2018 road avg)

Yds/Attempt 6.66 (worst than his 7.13 road 2018 avg)

One area that was improved was his TD as a % of completions as he threw a TD 15.38% of completions vs 10.10% on road games.

So I would read the scrimmage as a little feast or famine in sense of poor completion rate (13 of 24), low yds per attempt but increased scoring rate.

I haven't seen any stats like ones listed for Burrow for Sam this fall.I do think it is funny that a fairly pedestrian QB performance is being hailed by LSU press as excellence.

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DayHeGeaux

DayHeGeaux 72

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34 minutes ago, mr.goodkat said:

so y'all have a oc who doesn't have his own rpo playbook(was/is it his pro style last year  ?)  supported by a defensive head coach ? with a qb on his third offense in as many years ?  man i like our chances more and more . and what are we hinting at ? 

I like the confidence. 

I'm liking our matchups against your CBs and LBs; doesn't sound like there's a lot of confidence your CBs from the coaches. I'm interested in seeing what Orlando's base package will be.

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DayHeGeaux

DayHeGeaux 72

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8 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Checked the stat line that was published for the most recent LSU scrimmage where the press gushed over how "great" Burrow was.

54.17% completion rate (4 pts worse than his 2018 road avg)

12.3 yds/completion (slightly better than his 12.24 from 2018 road avg)

Yds/Attempt 6.66 (worst than his 7.13 road 2018 avg)

One area that was improved was his TD as a % of completions as he threw a TD 15.38% of completions vs 10.10% on road games.

So I would read the scrimmage as a little feast or famine in sense of poor completion rate (13 of 24), low yds per attempt but increased scoring rate.

I haven't seen any stats like ones listed for Burrow for Sam this fall.I do think it is funny that a fairly pedestrian QB performance is being hailed by LSU press as excellence.

It's a "scrimmage" against arguably a top 10 defense. What did you expect?

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Texasborn91

Texasborn91 1103

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7 minutes ago, DayHeGeaux said:

I like the confidence. 

I'm liking our matchups against your CBs and LBs; doesn't sound like there's a lot of confidence your CBs from the coaches. I'm interested in seeing what Orlando's base package will be.

1 nose guard with 10 defensive backs. Orlando calls it the Canadian dollar. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6857

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1 hour ago, DayHeGeaux said:

It's a "scrimmage" against arguably a top 10 defense. What did you expect?

I was just comparing his road stats vs the scrimmage stats. I thought ALL SEC defenses were "Top 10" so it seemed like a fair comparison. I think the fact that Burrow is launching new offense, has been hurt and missed part of camp, has OL injuries and will be on road (where he is not as good in any measure vs his home stats) is being lost by LSU fans.

I believe LSU has a good defense, I don't believe however that Burrow is anything better at QB than like 75% of the Big 12 teams that Texas faces every year. You can have great receivers if the QB cannot get them the ball regularly it doesn't matter. Burrow is your weak link.

It is a "in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king" deal when you compare him to typical SEC QB play. (which sucks).

He feasted on shit opponents and struggled against good to decent defenses last year. That is who he was. Maybe this new offense will unleash him, I don't think that will be the case.

There is no data for him you can point to that indicates he should take some great leap forward. Will be a fun game to watch as I think it matches LSU's strength vs UT's.

 

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DayHeGeaux

DayHeGeaux 72

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16 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I was just comparing his road stats vs the scrimmage stats. I thought ALL SEC defenses were "Top 10" so it seemed like a fair comparison. I think the fact that Burrow is launching new offense, has been hurt and missed part of camp, has OL injuries and will be on road (where he is not as good in any measure vs his home stats) is being lost by LSU fans.

I believe LSU has a good defense, I don't believe however that Burrow is anything better at QB than like 75% of the Big 12 teams that Texas faces every year. You can have great receivers if the QB cannot get them the ball regularly it doesn't matter. Burrow is your weak link.

It is a "in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king" deal when you compare him to typical SEC QB play. (which sucks).

He feasted on shit opponents and struggled against good to decent defenses last year. That is who he was. Maybe this new offense will unleash him, I don't think that will be the case.

There is no data for him you can point to that indicates he should take some great leap forward. Will be a fun game to watch as I think it matches LSU's strength vs UT's.

 

You shouldn't compare camp scrimmage stats to opponent game stats.

Camp scrimmages are controlled environments where not as much in-game variability comes into play. 

And I wouldn't categorize Burrow as the weak link to our offense, I would reserve that for our OL, specifically RT. In 2018, Burrow had to learn a new (pro-style/under center) offense in less than a month while competing.

We've only had one significant fall camp injury to the OL.  The rest of the non-practicing injuries have more to do with load management. I believe everybody will be ready to go week 1. 

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Kyrie Eleison

Kyrie Eleison 9312

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Posted (edited)

here's a bit of insight into Burrow...

LSU's Joe Burrow is the 'most competitive human on the planet'...

from the article...

Quote

"The thing that stood out to me about Joe when we recruited him at Ohio State was his competitiveness. You could just tell that the kid loved to win, hated to lose and elevated his teammates' play with that competitiveness. ... He knew the game of football about as well as any junior in high school that I've ever recruited." — Texas coach Tom Herman, lead recruiter of Joe Burrow while offensive coordinator at Ohio State

 

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Atticus

Atticus 4234

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here's a bit of insight into Burrow...
LSU's Joe Burrow is the 'most competitive human on the planet'...
from the article...
"The thing that stood out to me about Joe when we recruited him at Ohio State was his competitiveness. You could just tell that the kid loved to win, hated to lose and elevated his teammates' play with that competitiveness. ... He knew the game of football about as well as any junior in high school that I've ever recruited." — Texas coach Tom Herman, lead recruiter of Joe Burrow while offensive coordinator at Ohio State
 


He and Buechele should play ping pong.
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