The way too early 2019 LSU at Texas game discussion

[Nivek 16,929]

LSU sucks compact dicks.

[El Hornarino 374]

^I thought they preferred corndogs.

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

I've been watching a lot of LSU '18 offense over the last couple of days, just because the few times I actually watched them during the season, I didn't come away with any sort of impression at all -- just the 'meh' of a typical SEC offense. That kind of impression is almost always wrong, so I decided to waste some free time by figuring out exactly how it was wrong, and I have to admit, I'm now under the impression that LSU hasn't just been underperforming offensively, they've been drastically underperforming. They've got the pieces in place to be really, really good, and in particular, their QB run game ought to cause people more trouble than it has.

Burrow is not blazing fast, and he doesn't have phone-booth quickness (something that differentiates Ehlinger, actually -- that elusiveness in tight spaces), but what he does have is really good awareness of where his blockers are going to be, and he is big and strong enough to finish runs well, particularly once he gets past the first level. The few times I saw him rolling out were actually designed QB-Power plays, and even though there weren't legit options to freeze the LBs, he got good yardage every time anyway.

Fromm gets the adulation of SEC media hype, but for my money, if I were building a college football team, I'd take Burrow over Fromm any day of the week.

I'd still take Sam over either, of course, but I'm starting to get pumped over this game being a heavier lift than the Georgia game was; it will more than likely carry all the gravitas that we all foolishly thought the Notre Dame had during Strong's last season.

[GringoSalado 1,651]

siap, but haven't seen this posted. This guy's vid / analysis of the sugar bowl is posted elsewhere, here he looks at a few offensive plays from the LSU spring game:

 

[Horn80 6,121]

A&M beat LSU last season.  Yawn.

[Funk Doctor Spock 12,198]

1 hour ago, Horn80 said:

A&M beat LSU last season.  Yawn.

And lost to Troy the season before. But sure, they're "great". They're gonna get skull-fucked just like Georgia did. 

[sushihorn 3,233]

23 hours ago, GringoSalado said:

siap, but haven't seen this posted. This guy's vid / analysis of the sugar bowl is posted elsewhere, here he looks at a few offensive plays from the LSU spring game:

 

LSU fans are clearly delusional.  They seem to think that going away from their personnel strengths and emphasizing their weaknesses on offense is somehow going to help them.  Their OL is huge, strong and SLOW.  They are optimized for drive blocking for the run in confined spaces.  They will not be at their best when asked to pull and find a defender in space.  They will be even worse when called upon to pass block against a quick edge rusher or blitzer - as was demonstrated by the huge number of sacks (35) and TFLs (89) they gave up last year.  It's an OL designed to run power between the tackles, not to spring the QB outside on an RPO or to pass protect.

The WR corps is big and mostly fast, somewhat like Georgia (emphasizing athletes) but with a bit more size and less speed.  The other thing they have in common with UGa's WR corps is that they've shown athletic ability but not much in the way of decision making for option routes in the quick game.  For that, you need good judgement and being on the same page as the QB.  The former is unproven but LSU doesn't recruit players (or students for that matter) for their brains. The later requires a lot of combined reps - which is exactly what they won't have in game 2 it they really have installed a whole new offense in the off season. Going from run 5 yds and turn around or run deep to having to diagnose the defense requires very different qualities - ones that frankly none of the LSU WRs have ever proven. 

And they want to build all of this around a 57% passer in Joe Burrow.  His running is very similar to Baylor's Charlie Brewer or ISU's Brock Purdy but he's not in their league as a passer.  The guy showed he can make the one tough yard and pick up decent chunks on the occasional scramble but he's not a guy I'd want back there as either a runner or passer on 3rd and long.

 

Finally there is the comfort factor.  SEC teams may be disconcerted to see this style of offense executed with high-level talent.  The outcome of both the Sugar Bowl and NCG would argue for that.  But that is a total non-factor in the Big XII, where teams have been defending against the Spread with personnel optimized to run it for a generation now.  WVU ran a power-based run spread even before they arrived in the conference and Tom Herman certainly can diagnose it.

In short, LSU may be switching to a new system that Texas is intimately familiar with - much more so than Orgeron  One LSU is badly staffed to run that system and will likely do so worse than almost anyone in the Big XII.  They going away from their strengths and towards their weaknesses or at best unproven and untested qualities.  It may pay dividends against SEC opponents who have demonstrated clear vulnerability to such offenses assuming it's handled well.  For Texas, it just drops right into the comfort zone of a defense that faces this sort of thing every week both in practice and during games.

Edited June 24, 2019 by sushihorn

[sushihorn 3,233]

Something was really bothering me so I went back and checked.  Sure enough, against their toughest opponents last year, LSU already tried to use a spread attack.  Against Alabama, I think EVERY SNAP of the first 2 drives LSU's offense was in base 11 personnel with 3 WRs.  Against Georgia the first 2 drives were largely in 11 personnel.  They used a 2-back set once but spent more snaps than that in either 4 wide or empty backfield 5 wide.  I saw quick throws off pre-snap reads, zone-read style option looks and WR screens to the outside based on defensive alignment.   If you don't believe me look for yourself.

 

IOW LSU already relied heavily on something last year that looks like what they're trying to market as a "new" offense this year.  In fact they used it almost exclusively against their stronger opponents.  Maybe the route trees and combos are different but that's really about it.  I haven't paid that much attention to LSU but you'd think that people who do would have noticed this.  I guess it's easy to sell that kind of story when the audience really WANTS to believe it's true.

[fellside 1,114]

On 6/24/2019 at 1:04 PM, sushihorn said:

They will not be at their best when asked to pull and find a defender in space.  They will be even worse when called upon to pass block against a quick edge rusher or blitzer - as was demonstrated by the huge number of sacks (35) and TFLs (89) they gave up last year.  It's an OL designed to run power between the tackles, not to spring the QB outside on an RPO or to pass protect.

Running power literally means a guy pulls and finds a defender.

[Fico 1,778]

7 hours ago, fellside said:

Running power literally means a guy pulls and finds a defender.

It's a trap. /Akbar

[sushihorn 3,233]

9 hours ago, fellside said:

Running power literally means a guy pulls and finds a defender.

And the OL are not asked to block outside the tackles or locate defenders in space when running power.  One guy kicking out the DE and another turning up to lead block a LB trying to fill an interior gap.  Those are slightly more challenging than blocking the guy lined up directly across from them but neither requires finding a defender in space and both are INTERIOR blocks.  I will highlight the important parts of the quote you seem to want to quibble over.

Quote

They will not be at their best when asked to pull and find a defender in space.  They will be even worse when called upon to pass block against a quick edge rusher or blitzer - as was demonstrated by the huge number of sacks (35) and TFLs (89) they gave up last year.  It's an OL designed to run power between the tackles, not to spring the QB outside on an RPO or to pass protect.

 

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

On 6/24/2019 at 3:04 PM, sushihorn said:

IOW LSU already relied heavily on something last year that looks like what they're trying to market as a "new" offense this year.  In fact they used it almost exclusively against their stronger opponents.  Maybe the route trees and combos are different but that's really about it.  I haven't paid that much attention to LSU but you'd think that people who do would have noticed this.  I guess it's easy to sell that kind of story when the audience really WANTS to believe it's true.

Ironically, based on my understanding of what I was looking at in their spring game, the new concepts are likely to involve simpler route trees, not something more complex. But your basic premise, that they are not designed for it, is more or less spot on.  They definitely have the WR group who could be used effectively in a power spread. And some of their RBs are certainly capable of doing the multiple little things asked of them in such a scheme, too. But their OL doesn't even really line up right for such doings. Granted, it was Bama (who can make anybody look bad), but the way Burrow was getting knocked around the pocked did not bode well.

I don't think Burrow is that bad a QB for what they will be asking him to do. But he's not really more than serviceable. He's definitely strong enough, and he's just elusive enough, probably, but I just don't see him processing all that quickly. The RPOs in the above examples? You knew right away which was the fake and which was the real way the play was going. It wasn't an option, it was a called play-action.

[sushihorn 3,233]

14 hours ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Ironically, based on my understanding of what I was looking at in their spring game, the new concepts are likely to involve simpler route trees, not something more complex.

Were you able to find the whole game?  I checked Youtube and other video sites and couldn't find the LSU spring game anywhere, just a few highlights.

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

7 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Were you able to find the whole game?  I checked Youtube and other video sites and couldn't find the LSU spring game anywhere, just a few highlights.

It was on the SEC Network; replayed ad nauseum, but I don't know if anybody has put it online.

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

2 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

Robinson?

 

What, the ghost of Amos Alonzo Stagg wasn't available?

[JFKFC 4,879]

3 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

I thought he died a couple of years back.

[DCA_HORN 725]

Yeah like 20 or so.

[Kyrie Eleison 9,312]

this is sort of a respect your elders/thank you thing. they’re great friends from USC, and i suspect it’ll manifest as “come hang around some football, let’s bullshit and you can get paid a bit”

[DCA_HORN 725]

I didn't realize LSU needed help on how to pay players.

[Burt Macklin 19,024]

2 hours ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

this is sort of a respect your elders/thank you thing. they’re great friends from USC, and i suspect it’ll manifest as “come hang around some football, let’s bullshit and you can get paid a bit”

Yeah seems like a unique instance.

LSU and the state of Louisiana aren’t really known for nepotism where sham positions are paid by the state for doing nothing.

[Nivek 16,929]

....state of Louisiana aren’t really known for nepotism where sham positions are paid by the state for doing nothing.

Where do I apply?

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

16 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Where do I apply?

Duh, at the Edwin Edwards family reunion, of course.

[gmr548 16,580]

23 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

This just screams "wide open, fast-paced modern offense."

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This just screams "wide open, fast-paced modern offense."

To be fair, he probably won't have any more influence on the offense than Orgeron does.

[XYZ 2,154]

So the betting sites have LSU as the favorite?

[texifornia 56,958]

39 minutes ago, XYZ said:

So the betting sites have LSU as the favorite?

Yeah. Combination of general SECSEC betting bias, us replacing most of the defense and our best WR, and LSU looking real spicy with a revamped offense.

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

12 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Yeah. Combination of general SECSEC betting bias, us replacing most of the defense and our best WR, and LSU looking real spicy with a revamped offense.

Personally, I have no doubt that their defense will be salty as fuck, but I am not even a little bit worried about their offense, even with what we're replacing on defense. Not sure what the O/U will be, but just generically, I'd take the under.

[XYZ 2,154]

LSU not gonna score more than 10 points.

[deft 6,847]

1 hour ago, texifornia said:

Yeah. Combination of general SECSEC betting bias, us replacing most of the defense and our best WR, and LSU looking real spicy with a revamped offense.

so spicy.....like plain yogurt

Edited July 2, 2019 by deft

[Tex Long 4,398]

2 hours ago, deft said:

so spicy.....like plain yogurt

Dat's how cpme dem Kay John got dat Tabasco, cher.

[gmr548 16,580]

So the betting sites have LSU as the favorite?

Yeah. I'm not sure what the actual lines are or if they're even out yet, but I do remember a "projection" of lines for big games that had LSU -8. I've also never seen the game discussed with LSU not being considered the favorite, even if only slightly.

Tom Herman as a home underdog against a top 10 team. I don't bet on Texas but that is a tempting scenario.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[gmr548 16,580]

Personally, I have no doubt that their defense will be salty as fuck, but I am not even a little bit worried about their offense, even with what we're replacing on defense. Not sure what the O/U will be, but just generically, I'd take the under.

Yeah I think there will be a lot of hype on offense coming in between LSU's "new look" and Ehlinger + crew. My read is that it'll be fairly low scoring though.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[sushihorn 3,233]

18 hours ago, XYZ said:

LSU not gonna score more than 10 points.

They needed big plays from their special teams and defense to hit 20 points last year.  I don't expect that to change much.

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[TheMailBox357 213]

On 6/23/2019 at 12:23 PM, Walden Ponderer said:

I've been watching a lot of LSU '18 offense over the last couple of days, just because the few times I actually watched them during the season, I didn't come away with any sort of impression at all -- just the 'meh' of a typical SEC offense. That kind of impression is almost always wrong, so I decided to waste some free time by figuring out exactly how it was wrong, and I have to admit, I'm now under the impression that LSU hasn't just been underperforming offensively, they've been drastically underperforming. They've got the pieces in place to be really, really good, and in particular, their QB run game ought to cause people more trouble than it has.

Burrow is not blazing fast, and he doesn't have phone-booth quickness (something that differentiates Ehlinger, actually -- that elusiveness in tight spaces), but what he does have is really good awareness of where his blockers are going to be, and he is big and strong enough to finish runs well, particularly once he gets past the first level. The few times I saw him rolling out were actually designed QB-Power plays, and even though there weren't legit options to freeze the LBs, he got good yardage every time anyway.

Fromm gets the adulation of SEC media hype, but for my money, if I were building a college football team, I'd take Burrow over Fromm any day of the week.

I'd still take Sam over either, of course, but I'm starting to get pumped over this game being a heavier lift than the Georgia game was; it will more than likely carry all the gravitas that we all foolishly thought the Notre Dame had during Strong's last season.

LOL, You can say that about LSU every year for this entire decade. They recruit too much quality offensive skill talent to not be running some type of spread offense. I can't believe they waited till 2019 to finally try it.

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

If you can ignore the hyperbole, this guy's breakdowns are actually pretty fun. LSU's short passing game looks to be based mostly on pre-snap recognition, which makes sense. The vast majority of the time, these kinds of throws happen quickly simply because that's when they break open. However, in LSU's case, it would appear that they need to be quick because pass pro is not really all that great. They've got an OL built for a power running game. In pass pro, they are really solid at LT; at RT, not so much. So for LSU to succeed, Burrow needs to recognize who has leverage before the ball is even snapped.

(Side note -- I kind of chuckled when he suggested on one play that Burrow should have picked on Delpit -- disadvantage of watching in slo-mo. If He'd thrown that ball, it's likely a pick-six. Hoping Sam doesn't make that mistake. Probably won't, but still, it's worth a chuckle.)

All in all, it's much better to play them early in the season rather than late, because the transition to doing this play after play is more than likely not going to be all that smooth at first.

 

 

[XYZ 2,154]

LSU ain’t f’n around!!! I’m so scared.

[markstanco 12,577]

That's too bad. I was hoping they were f'n around.

[msucolt45 4,059]

We have history with our buddies to the East!

After losing to LSU, in the ‘63 Cotton Bowl, 13-0, it was a wake-up call to the Horns and Coach Royal!

They felt as if they’d been beaten 40-0, but they had that loss to grow on during the off-season. Next year - undefeated National Champions - ‘63 team and Nat. Champs the following year versus Navy.

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

13 minutes ago, markstanco said:

That's too bad. I was hoping they were f'n around.

Live look in at Ed Orangutan just f'n around:

[Deej 76,789]

Just stopping in to say we will be making LSU our bitch this fall.

[deft 6,847]

4 hours ago, XYZ said:

LSU ain’t f’n around!!! I’m so scared.

It's only because they wanted to be there at their spring game

[XYZ 2,154]

Texas gonna fuckstomp LSU.

[sushihorn 3,233]

22 hours ago, TheMailBox357 said:

LOL, You can say that about LSU every year for this entire decade. They recruit too much quality offensive skill talent to not be running some type of spread offense. I can't believe they waited till 2019 to finally try it.

Have you seen the QBs LSU has fielded?

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

We gonna crush those bad boys!!!!

[Zavala 1,384]

12 hours ago, sushihorn said:

Have you seen the QBs LSU has fielded?

I think Burrow will fold and they will have to waive the white flag like tcu last year. He's "SEC tough", but that ain't gonna be enough for Orlando's defense. 

[XYZ 2,154]

LSU fucking sucks.

[Tex Long 4,398]

We should be able to take care of the Tigahs without going past the third or fourth OT.

[TexasMan 10,891]